After the first round of the HC - who looks good and who is cannon fodder?

Who looks like the likely winners? =can't see past Toulon myself. Glasgow have been playing well and were outclassed and outgunned. Exeter impressed me as well - the way they just ran everything back and the speed with which they played was great. Rugby how it should be played and with a team thats probably worth less than the toulon bench!

Edinburgh - are they set for another good cup run? I was impressed with their win.

Blues and Quins? back to the drawing board.

TBH, the Scarlets looked good.

They're one of these teams that when they play well, could beat all in front of them but then they occasionally take their eye off the ball which must be frustrating as hell for their supporters.

Toulon look good but will they keep up the standard away from home?

Semi's will probably consist of Leinster, Toulon, Sarries + one other French team (the one that beats Glasgow in the 1/4s).

Leinster will have to improve a lot to get to the semis. A shadow of the team of the last few years.

yeah but a win away at the Liberty is a better result than you'd think - especially with the Opreys finding a bit of form at the moment.

The diffference between Leinster and most other teams, is that Leinster know what is required in the big European games. Their experience in that environment is second to none.

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:TBH, the Scarlets looked good.

They're one of these teams that when they play well, could beat all in front of them but then they occasionally take their eye off the ball which must be frustrating as hell for their supporters.

N'ah you take the rough with the smooth. It's the sky pundits talking us up before the match, and then caliming the game 'could be an upset' when we were winning at half time that is frustrating as hell.

To be honest from what I have seen so far it looks like a pretty competitive HEC. Only 3 teams have failed to pick up any points, and not many have picked up the winning bp, so I think we could be in for a cracking competition.

Scarlet - Is Barclay beginning to settle?

Tattie - I actually praised him on Saturday, he did some good stuff at the breakdown. Fingers crossed he will come good, but after the International squad has over looked him please.

He's a pain in the erse at the breakdown and trust me, when he's up to speed you'll realise just how much of an asset he really is.

Anyway mate, good luck with the rest of your season  

Zebre will top their group.

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:He's a pain in the erse at the breakdown and trust me, when he's up to speed you'll realise just how much of an asset he really is.

Anyway mate, good luck with the rest of your season  

I think they played a great deal better without McCusker, and I rate Rhodri Williams above Gareth Davies, he is very quick and makes more intelligent decisions.

Wouldn't change that team for next week.

If we are talking looking good then - Scarlets,Edinburgh,Toulon,Leinster and Exeter.

Cannon fodder at the moment looks like Cardiff and Zebre.

Two of the most disappointed sides will be Quins and Munster.

No worries, we are going to turn over Clermont in France this week

ChequeredJersey wrote:No worries, we are going to turn over Clermont in France this week

I bet they are not expecting that so here's your chance

It's all been a masterstroke by O'Shea. Play like crap in the AP and first match of the HEC, lower everyone's guard then win in the hardest place to win in European Rugby, smash one of the tournament favourites and polish off everyone else winning every other game this season as they can't get their heads around what has happened. None of our players are actually injured and we've secretly flown in Etzebeth, and Franks and SBW whose rugby vs league sideshow has just been to confuse the media as he signs for Quins

Blues are definitely cannon fodder right now.

Quins look shellshocked.

Lol, it's going to be fun when England take away Brown and Robshaw!

beshocked wrote:If we are talking looking good then - Scarlets,Edinburgh,Toulon,Leinster and Exeter.

Cannon fodder at the moment looks like Cardiff and Zebre.

Two of the most disappointed sides will be Quins and Munster.

Scarlets and Blues can blow hot and cold this season. Great performance by Scarlets vs Quins, awful by Blues vs Exeter. The week before, Scarlets were unimaginative and inopertunistic vs Glasgow and Blues were Magical vs Edinburgh.

Looking at the scots, Glasgow are rightfully the best team in the Rp12 this season, Edinburgh, bar a decent scrum are by far the worst.

It's tough to call on just an opening weekend. But I don't disagree with your selections on a purely first Lund basis.

I am sure we will be reflecting a different bunch of winners and losers next week. The only consistent factor will be the success bought by Mon. Boudjellal on the Cotê d'Azur.

After the 2nd weekend of games, we'll have a better understanding of who's in and out of this comp. For some who're already on the ropes for qualification, it's an up hill battle for a chance of getting out of the group.

A week early imo for a who's fodder and who's not.

QuIns will not win a game in the HC.

I am beginning to wonder if Trevor is a 40 year old virgin which is why he has such a negative view on anything.

There is someone who sits two rows in front of me at home games, we shall call him Captain Sweatpants. He is on his own, always arrives between 5 and 10 minutes into the game, carrying 2/3s pint lager, wearing sweatpants, a bumbag and some strange looking top.

He always gets up 5 minutes before the ned of the 1st hal and returns 10 minutes into the second half. We reckon he is sent to the match by his mother so she can at least change his bedding once a fortnight.

When thinking on certain posters hold this image of Captain sweatpants in your head. It will explain much and make their posts much more understandable.

VietGwentRevisited wrote:There is someone who sits two rows in front of me at home games, we shall call him Captain Sweatpants. He is on his own, always arrives between 5 and 10 minutes into the game, carrying 2/3s pint lager, wearing sweatpants, a bumbag and some strange looking top.

He always gets up 5 minutes before the ned of the 1st hal and returns 10 minutes into the second half. We reckon he is sent to the match by his mother so she can at least change his bedding once a fortnight.

When thinking on certain posters hold this image of Captain sweatpants in your head. It will explain much and make their posts much more understandable.

Classic, VGR

QuickBall wrote:After the 2nd weekend of games, we'll have a better understanding of who's in and out of this comp.  For some who're already on the ropes for qualification, it's an up hill battle for a chance of getting out of the group.

A week early imo for a who's fodder and who's not.  

I agree.  After the second week every team will have played at home and away and we can see if the week 1 results were predictive or not.  

Sunday's matches are a good example.  
Exeter did not start off so well in the Premiership this season, yet put up 40 points in the first 50 minutes.  
Glasgow started their season very well in the league, but were hammered by Toulon.  
So, which is the form those teams will carry through the competition?  Probably somewhere in the middle, if I had to guess.

one game does not mean a turn around for edinburgh I'm afraid! We'll need to see some consistency before I will say they "look good"

Well, at this stage here is who is not going to make it.

I would say given the strength of their group Treviso losing at home to Montpellier sees their realistic chances over. Ulster looked very good in patches in the second half against Tigers, they were much the better side but Tigers sneaked a LBP and they have some key players to come back so that group is still a three-way tussle with no obviously superior side.

Quins join the Ospreys, Treviso and Connacht in losing at home in Round 1- historically that means its good bye. But if Ospreys can win at Franklins Gardens it could reignite their campaign. Next week, the two losers in Pool 1 face off; one of the Ospreys or Northampton Saints will be essentially out of the tournament- that's exciting. Massive pressure on both teams.

Harlequins, on the other hand? They are away to Clermont. Maybe next year Quins?

Notch wrote:Well, at this stage here is who is not going to make it.

I would say given the strength of their group Treviso losing at home to Montpellier sees their realistic chances over. Ulster looked very good in patches in the second half against Tigers, they were much the better side but Tigers sneaked a LBP and they have some key players to come back so that group is still a three-way tussle with no obviously superior side.

Quins join the Ospreys, Treviso and Connacht in losing at home in Round 1- historically that means its good bye. But if Ospreys can win at Franklins Gardens it could reignite their campaign. Next week, the two losers in Pool 1 face off; one of the Ospreys or Northampton Saints will be essentially out of the tournament- that's exciting. Massive pressure on both teams.

Harlequins, on the other hand? They are away to Clermont. Maybe next year Quins?

Your lips to god's ears Notcheroo. Would be a dream as long as we can stagger past Castres.

What do you need to qualify?
- Strong home record (3 wins) 12pts
- At least a LBP in you losing games (2 away losses) 2pts
- A victory on the road (1 win) 4pts
That gets you to 18 points and means you need to either pick up 2 TBP during the group games or else a second road victory to break the 20pt barrier that usually secures progression.

So the winners;
Away wins this week => Leinster, Scarlets, Montpelier
LBP away => Munster, Perpignan, ASM, Leicester
TBP => Exeter, Toulon

Losers;
Home loss=> Osprey, Treviso,
No points => Glasgow, Blues,

The biggest winner are those that win on the road, the biggest losers are those that lose at home.

Ah Leinster will beat Castres. Sure last season they were French champions but still conceded four tries at Ravenhill- bad thing about being French champions is a couple of their better players and their coaches have left too.

I doubt they are much of a threat at the RDS as they tend to travel poorly in Europe and prioritise the league.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:What do you need to qualify?
- Strong home record (3 wins) 12pts
- At least a LBP in you losing games (2 away losses) 2pts
- A victory on the road (1 win) 4pts
That gets you to 18 points and means you need to either pick up 2 TBP during the group games or else a second road victory to break the 20pt barrier that usually secures progression.

So the winners;
Away wins this week => Leinster, Scarlets, Montpelier
LBP away => Munster, Perpignan, ASM, Leicester
TBP => Exeter, Toulon

Losers;
Home loss=> Osprey, Treviso,
No points => Glasgow, Blues,

The biggest winner are those that win on the road, the biggest losers are those that lose at home.

band, I think that both Glasgow and Cardiff Blouses picked up TBP's which will do them equally well as LBPs, no?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:What do you need to qualify?
- Strong home record (3 wins) 12pts
- At least a LBP in you losing games (2 away losses) 2pts
- A victory on the road (1 win) 4pts
That gets you to 18 points and means you need to either pick up 2 TBP during the group games or else a second road victory to break the 20pt barrier that usually secures progression.

So the winners;
Away wins this week => Leinster, Scarlets, Montpelier
LBP away => Munster, Perpignan, ASM, Leicester
TBP => Exeter, Toulon

Losers;
Home loss=> Osprey, Treviso,
No points => Glasgow, Blues,

The biggest winner are those that win on the road, the biggest losers are those that lose at home.

band, I think that both Glasgow and Cardiff Blouses picked up TBP's which will do them equally well as LBPs, no?

Beat me to it on Glasgow. Did Cardiff get one too?

thebandwagonsociety wrote:What do you need to qualify?
- Strong home record (3 wins) 12pts
- At least a LBP in you losing games (2 away losses) 2pts
- A victory on the road (1 win) 4pts
That gets you to 18 points and means you need to either pick up 2 TBP during the group games or else a second road victory to break the 20pt barrier that usually secures progression.

So the winners;
Away wins this week => Leinster, Scarlets, Montpelier
LBP away => Munster, Perpignan, ASM, Leicester
TBP => Exeter, Toulon

Losers;
Home loss=> Osprey, Treviso, Quins
No points => Glasgow, Blues,

The biggest winner are those that win on the road, the biggest losers are those that lose at home.

If there were 3 away wins then......

thebandwagonsociety wrote:What do you need to qualify?
- Strong home record (3 wins) 12pts
- At least a LBP in you losing games (2 away losses) 2pts
- A victory on the road (1 win) 4pts
That gets you to 18 points and means you need to either pick up 2 TBP during the group games or else a second road victory to break the 20pt barrier that usually secures progression.

So the winners;
Away wins this week => Leinster, Scarlets, Montpelier, Saracens
TBP => Exeter, Toulon

Lucky Losers
LBP away => Munster, Perpignan, ASM, Leicester
TBP away => Cardiff, Glasgow

Big Losers;
Home loss=> Osprey, Treviso, Quins, Connacht

I changed some things around. Cardiff, Glasgow probably net losers but the fact they scored four tries each means it was 5-1, not 4-0 they went down. And the fact they scored those tries is good, because tries scored is used as a tie-break.

My predictions, for whatever its worth (probably not much):

Friday
Saracens v Toulouse, Sarries win a close one in Wembley, 4 pts to 1 pt.
Leicester Tigers v Benetton Treviso, Leicester big at home, 5 pts to 0 pts.
 
Saturday
Cardiff Blues v Toulon, Cardiff will struggle against tough Toulon, who gets only 3 tries, Toulon 4pts to 0 pts.
Zebre v Connacht,  Zebre win at home, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Leinster v Castres, Leinster better at home, but only just, Leinster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Montpellier v Ulster, Interesting, tough match, Montpellier 4 pts. To 1 pt., close match.
Munster v Gloucester Rugby,  Big match, pressure on Munster, How good is Gloucester?  Not good enough, Munster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Scarlets v Racing Metro, Racing win away, barely, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
 
Sunday
Northampton Saints v Ospreys, Home team wins, away team is finished for this year, 4 pts. To 1 pt..   
Perpignan v Edinburgh, No idea how to call this.  Let’s give it to Edi, 4pts. To 1 pt.
Glasgow v Exeter Chiefs, A clobberer away and the clobbered at home.  The clobberer wins 4 pts. To 0 pts.

Clermont Auvergne v Harlequins, Quins done for this season, ASM 5 pts. To 0 pts.

doctor_grey wrote:My predictions, for whatever its worth (probably not much):

Friday
Saracens v Toulouse, Sarries win a close one in Wembley, 4 pts to 1 pt.
Leicester Tigers v Benetton Treviso, Leicester big at home, 5 pts to 0 pts.
 
Saturday
Cardiff Blues v Toulon, Cardiff will struggle against tough Toulon, who gets only 3 tries, Toulon 4pts to 0 pts.
Zebre v Connacht,  Zebre win at home, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Leinster v Castres, Leinster better at home, but only just, Leinster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Montpellier v Ulster, Interesting, tough match, Montpellier 4 pts. To 1 pt., close match.
Munster v Gloucester Rugby,  Big match, pressure on Munster, How good is Gloucester?  Not good enough, Munster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Scarlets v Racing Metro, Racing win away, barely, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
 
Sunday
Northampton Saints v Ospreys, Home team wins, away team is finished for this year, 4 pts. To 1 pt..   
Perpignan v Edinburgh, No idea how to call this.  Let’s give it to Edi, 4pts. To 1 pt.
Glasgow v Exeter Chiefs, A clobberer away and the clobbered at home.  The clobberer wins 4 pts. To 0 pts.

Clermont Auvergne v Harlequins, Quins done for this season, ASM 5 pts. To 0 pts.

Agree with all bar two results - I think Ospreys will nick it in a close one at Northampton and don't see Perpignan losing at home to Edinburgh. Also see five pointers for Toulon, Munster and Glasgow.

Ospreys to win at Northampton. That really is dumbest comment ever posted on here!

Trevor40 wrote:Ospreys to win at Northampton. That really is dumbest comment ever posted on here!

Upset at losing the record yourself? Don't worry, you'll get it back soon enough. Just keep doing what you're doing  

Must have been an Ospreys fan to predict that one...

Not much going on in your life eh Trev? Is bad-mouthing Quins on internet forums your only hobby?

Toulon, Leinster and Sarries will probably be in the KO stages. There's probably more to come from the French, perhaps whocares can put us in the know? Guess nobody thinks Gloucester will do well?

Looks like Scarlets could be Wales' only hope in Europe (Heino or Amlin). They still aren't playing that well so will need to find a few more gears and step up. Back-row looked good on the weekend against Robshaw and Easter.

Totalflanker wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:My predictions, for whatever its worth (probably not much):

Friday
Saracens v Toulouse, Sarries win a close one in Wembley, 4 pts to 1 pt.
Leicester Tigers v Benetton Treviso, Leicester big at home, 5 pts to 0 pts.
 
Saturday
Cardiff Blues v Toulon, Cardiff will struggle against tough Toulon, who gets only 3 tries, Toulon 4pts to 0 pts.
Zebre v Connacht,  Zebre win at home, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Leinster v Castres, Leinster better at home, but only just, Leinster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Montpellier v Ulster, Interesting, tough match, Montpellier 4 pts. To 1 pt., close match.
Munster v Gloucester Rugby,  Big match, pressure on Munster, How good is Gloucester?  Not good enough, Munster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Scarlets v Racing Metro, Racing win away, barely, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
 
Sunday
Northampton Saints v Ospreys, Home team wins, away team is finished for this year, 4 pts. To 1 pt..   
Perpignan v Edinburgh, No idea how to call this.  Let’s give it to Edi, 4pts. To 1 pt.
Glasgow v Exeter Chiefs, A clobberer away and the clobbered at home.  The clobberer wins 4 pts. To 0 pts.

Clermont Auvergne v Harlequins, Quins done for this season, ASM 5 pts. To 0 pts.

Agree with all bar two results - I think Ospreys will nick it in a close one at Northampton and don't see Perpignan losing at home to Edinburgh. Also see five pointers for Toulon, Munster and Glasgow.

Don't think we are really that far off from each other.  I chose Saints over Ospreys because Saints seem, so far, a better team than last season.  Also, Saints are at home.  But, should be close either way.  I chose Edi because I wanted an upset special, though I believe its a close match either way - a little wishful thinking involved there, maybe?  

My initial reaction was to give Munster the 5 pointer, so I understand where you are coming from.  Plus, Munster have a winning pedigree and Glocs have, well, a 'nearly' pedigree. But I am not so sure about this season's Munster, so I only gave them the 4 pointer.  I thought about giving Toulon a 5 pointer as well, and you are probably right.  In this case I am hoping Cardiff play better and keep it closer.  If Toulon repeat the result from last weekend, it will speak volumes about both teams, methinks.  And finally, I gave Exe the 4 pointer because I think they will not be able to turn it on nearly as well at Glasgow as they did at home to Cardiff.

One of the matches I want to watch is Montpellier v. Ulster.  I haven't seen Montpellier and are interested to see how good they are.  Also pulling for Ulster in that one.

I think Saints will beat Ospreys. Ospreys need forward domination to win matches as their backline is poor. I don't think they'll get forward domination against a Saints pack.

doctor_grey wrote:My predictions, for whatever its worth (probably not much):

Friday
Saracens v Toulouse, Sarries win a close one in Wembley, 4 pts to 1 pt.
Leicester Tigers v Benetton Treviso, Leicester big at home, 5 pts to 0 pts.
 
Saturday
Cardiff Blues v Toulon, Cardiff will struggle against tough Toulon, who gets only 3 tries, Toulon 4pts to 0 pts.
Zebre v Connacht,  Zebre win at home, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Leinster v Castres, Leinster better at home, but only just, Leinster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Montpellier v Ulster, Interesting, tough match, Montpellier 4 pts. To 1 pt., close match.
Munster v Gloucester Rugby,  Big match, pressure on Munster, How good is Gloucester?  Not good enough, Munster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Scarlets v Racing Metro, Racing win away, barely, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
 
Sunday
Northampton Saints v Ospreys, Home team wins, away team is finished for this year, 4 pts. To 1 pt..   
Perpignan v Edinburgh, No idea how to call this.  Let’s give it to Edi, 4pts. To 1 pt.
Glasgow v Exeter Chiefs, A clobberer away and the clobbered at home.  The clobberer wins 4 pts. To 0 pts.

Clermont Auvergne v Harlequins, Quins done for this season, ASM 5 pts. To 0 pts.

If there is only 1 TBP scored this week I will eat my size 12 shoes.

Mickado wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:My predictions, for whatever its worth (probably not much):

Friday
Saracens v Toulouse, Sarries win a close one in Wembley, 4 pts to 1 pt.
Leicester Tigers v Benetton Treviso, Leicester big at home, 5 pts to 0 pts.
 
Saturday
Cardiff Blues v Toulon, Cardiff will struggle against tough Toulon, who gets only 3 tries, Toulon 4pts to 0 pts.
Zebre v Connacht,  Zebre win at home, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Leinster v Castres, Leinster better at home, but only just, Leinster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Montpellier v Ulster, Interesting, tough match, Montpellier 4 pts. To 1 pt., close match.
Munster v Gloucester Rugby,  Big match, pressure on Munster, How good is Gloucester?  Not good enough, Munster 4 pts. To 1 pt.
Scarlets v Racing Metro, Racing win away, barely, 4 pts. To 1 pt.
 
Sunday
Northampton Saints v Ospreys, Home team wins, away team is finished for this year, 4 pts. To 1 pt..   
Perpignan v Edinburgh, No idea how to call this.  Let’s give it to Edi, 4pts. To 1 pt.
Glasgow v Exeter Chiefs, A clobberer away and the clobbered at home.  The clobberer wins 4 pts. To 0 pts.

Clermont Auvergne v Harlequins, Quins done for this season, ASM 5 pts. To 0 pts.

If there is only 1 TBP scored this week I will eat my size 12 shoes.

Show off

Perpignan will rotate a bit on sunday resting some of their international players (lopez, guitoune, strokosh, benvenutti). Might start with their Italian flyhalf Tommaso Alleni so embra has an outside chance

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:
Show off

If i was showing off i'd be honest and say they were size 13.

If thats true whocares then Edinburgh have a really good chance given they seem to have rediscovered some form and belief. Edinburgh in reality are more like the team of last week not the team of earlier in the season.

Edinburgh have to win to put themselves in the hunt for the knockout stages.

TJ wrote:If thats true whocares then Edinburgh have a really good chance given they seem to have rediscovered some form and belief.  Edinburgh in reality are more like the team of last week not the team of earlier in the season.

Edinburgh have to win to put themselves in the hunt for the knockout stages.

Really?

so not like the team that has struggled in the Pro12 for over two years and lost every HEC match last season?

Nope - the team is far better than that - the win last week was more like they are able to play. can they sustain it tho? thats the big question. No doubt they have been playing far below their potential. can they realise their potential two weeks in a row? dunno.

It's funny that a few sides have completely defied league form with their HC form which could lead to some surprises in the next round.

Gloucester for example are a side who I think will push Munster. I can see them getting the losing bonus point at least.

Also I think Exeter have put in two strong performances consecutively. I think they can beat Glasgow.

I would back Scarlets to win at home vs Racing Metro too after their good win vs Quins.



the bandwagon society surely you should add

Northampton to lucky losers

Toulouse to try bonus point.

Exeter / Glasgow is gonna be a good game for sure. Home advantage should put Glasgow thru but I wouldn't bet my shirt on it. Glasgow will be hurting from the loss and Toonie surely has learnt his lesson about putting players out of position. Goal kicking still remains an issue tho. I so do not what rhubarb taking the kicks - 'cos if he misses one his whole game collapses

beshocked wrote:It's funny that a few sides have completely defied league form with their HC form which could lead to some surprises in the next round.

Gloucester for example are a side who I think will push Munster. I can see them getting the losing bonus point at least.

Also I think Exeter have put in two strong performances consecutively. I think they can beat Glasgow.

I would back Scarlets to win at home vs Racing Metro too after their good win vs Quins.



the bandwagon society surely you should add

Northampton to lucky losers

Toulouse to try bonus point.

Depends if Munster are able to bully Glaws up front, preumably? Exe-Glasgow will be an interesting one - could go either way, I reckon. Two strong packs, both aggressive at the breakdown, both excellent team ethics that drive thru all players - Glasgow may have it in the backs tho by a gnat's baw-hair