Very real chance that all the English sides will lose their 1st round Champions Cup matches?

http://www.espn.co.uk/european-rugby-champions-cup-2014-15/rugby/series/224327.html?template=fixtures

more to follow later.........

Although this is a wonderful insiteful article, isn't this generally the case? If anything it would be more likely this season than before because of the teams removed.

Good to see a really competitive tournament is now in place

Or alternatively they could win all their 1st round games.

If Castres winning in London would have been very unlikely in the past, it would now belong to the realm of dreams.

At current odds for an accumulator of 284/1, it's got to be worth a punt, hasn't it?

whocares wrote:If Castres winning in London would have been very unlikely in the past, it would now belong to the realm of dreams.

At any other time I'd agree but have you not seen Quins this season? All the opposition needs to do is knock on and we'll gift them a few points to make up for it.

I can easily see Castre winning.

I also think Bath will hump Glasgow and Saints will easily beat a pretty rubbish RM side. Tigers have a pretty good chance of beating Ulster as well.

yappysnap wrote:

whocares wrote:If Castres winning in London would have been very unlikely in the past, it would now belong to the realm of dreams.

At any other time I'd agree but have you not seen Quins this season? All the opposition needs to do is knock on and we'll gift them a few points to make up for it.

I can easily see Castre winning.

No I havent seen Quins so far... But Castres have been truly awful at times and the team morale is at its lowest.

Nah Yappy, easy win for Quins, miserable Saturday for Tigers.

whocares wrote:

yappysnap wrote:

whocares wrote:If Castres winning in London would have been very unlikely in the past, it would now belong to the realm of dreams.

At any other time I'd agree but have you not seen Quins this season? All the opposition needs to do is knock on and we'll gift them a few points to make up for it.

I can easily see Castre winning.

No I havent seen Quins so far... But Castres have been truly awful at times and the team morale is at its lowest.

I agree with whocares. However poor Quins have been this season (and I haven't seen much of them either), they simply can't possibly have been as dreadful as Castres have been so far...

But looking at the fixtures I agree with Cyril and LD: alll games (involving English clubs) strike me as being fairly evenly balanced on paper in that no result would particularly shock me (Quins losing to Castres or Leinster to Wasps would surprise me the most, but I wouldn't make them more than 70-30 favourites), which can surely only be a good thing?

Looking down the list, the only two fixtures I feel completely confident in calling are Toulon vs Scarlets and Ospreys vs Treviso.

Treviso aren't as strong as they used to be mind.

I would say it is more likely that the English sides win all the games rather than lose all. I feel it will fall in the middle with wins for Quins, Bath and Sarries.

Leicester to lose by 30 against Ulster. 7 if Allen plays.

Quins v Castres
If Castres send a 2nd string team they will be beaten....easily.

Sale v Munster.
Much depends on Sale's attitude towards this comp. They can be a handful at home. A draw is a possibility in this one.

Saracens v Clermont
Some people have short memories, but you can bet Clermont will want to atone for the spanking they got in the semi. If Sarries stuff Clermont at the breakdown again, I take them to win by 15.

Tigers - who will return from injury? Having Ayerza and Tuilagi back was a huge boost for them last week. Ulster have injury concerns of their own, but have unearthed a potential star in midfield, Stuart McCloskey. Watch him if he plays, but I'm taking Tigers to build on last week and win by 9.


Glasgow v Bath
I feel Glasgow will need to build a decent lead with 20 mins to go to win this. Their fitness over 80 is not as good as Bath imo. Bath to prevail but a lbp for Glasgow.

Racing v Saints.
This will be a tough game for Saints, but they are growing in Europe. A powerful, well drilled pack and Myler's boot should help them get plenty of territory. Saints to nick a close one with RM picking up a lbp.

Leinster v Wasps
Much as don't like to back against my team, they have a poor record in Ireland. However most of the current squad have not experienced that. Nevertheless, Leinster to win and hope we can pick up a lbp.

As LT says a lot for Tigers will hinge on Allen being fit. If he is the below side, whilst still short in the front row, should push Ulster hard at Welford Road. However without Allen holding things together in the backs I fear that Williams at 12 will be exploited badly in defence.

1.Ayerza
2.Ghirildini
3.Balmain
4.Thorn
5.Kitchener
6.Gibson or Barbieri
7.Salvi
8.Crane

9.Youngs
10.Williams or Burns

11.Goneva
12.Allen
13.Tuilagi
14.Scully
15.Tait

16.Briggs 17.Rizzo 18.Pasquali 19.De Cheves 20.Barbieri or Gibson 21.Harrison 22.Williams or Burns 23.Benjamin

whocares wrote:If Castres winning in London would have been very unlikely in the past, it would now belong to the realm of dreams.

I agree Bordeaux stuffed them recently

HammerofThunor wrote:Although this is a wonderful insiteful article, isn't this generally the case? If anything it would be more likely this season than before because of the teams removed.

Wot insight would you like HoT?

Sorry I just didn't have the time but I absolutely knew you'd want to share in the observed prediction/possibility. And seriously, I think an argument can be made for each of the 6 games being lost or won - do I think they will all lose? Well I hope not, and the odds are definitely against it, but not one game is a gimme.

I think Quins will win and Bath if the can get over their travelling wobble though the weather could make that one an even greater lottery. I'd love Saints to win in France ans Wasps in Dublin. Saracens have real home advantage, plastic pitch and all (not playing at Wembley will be a big plus) and Leicester are at home and have begun to man the barricades. So realistically, and I don't like saying this, only Sale appear to be the definite losers, however who knows what Diamond will do or if Cipriani will invoke the spirit of the Bus and stick it to Lancaster for the twit he is.What do I know? I just thought.........

Come on Sale!!!

"I think an argument can be made for each of the 6 games being lost or won"

There are 7 games featuring English teams. Amazingly all 5 games on Saturday do! BT must have won on the scheduling.

Think the author is going to end up with egg on his face and I'm not an English rugby fan.

Can't see Tigers winning. Ulster are on form and other than lock and 9 don't appear to be missing key players. We on the other hand only have two fit tight head props actually old enough to play in this game and at 22 and 20 you can guess they are pretty raw. Four Lions missing from the forwards and unlikely to have a specialist 12 available. This one could be ugly.

I'd expect Bath, Sarries and Saints to all perform pretty well. They are quality sides.

Quins, Sarries and Saints will win this weekend. Not so sure about Bath, I think Glasgow could sneak it, but as this is Europe I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Aren't Tigers a bit injury depleted? Otherwise I'd back them for the win. And is Piennar available for Ulster?

No team announcements from Leicester or Ulster yet.

Quins team v Castres.

15. Brown
14. Yarde
13. Hopper
12. Lowe
11. Tikoirotuma
10. Evans. 
9. Care

1. Marler (c.)
2. Ward
3. Collier
4. Matthews
5. Robson
6. Wallace
7. Robshaw
8. Easter

16. Buchanan
17. Lambert
18. Sinckler
19. Twomey
20. Trayfoot
21. K. Dickson
22. Turner-Hall
23. Lindsay-Hague

Castres...

15. Palis
14. Evans
13. Tuatara
12. Combezou
11. Grosso
10. Tales (c)
9. Kockott

1. Whetton.
2. Bornman
3. Diarra
4. Faasalele
5. Gray
6. Montes
7. Mach
8. Taumoepeau

16. Railleur
17. Lazar
18. Faanunu
19. Babillot
20. Samson
21. Dumora
22. Cabannes
23. Garcia

Perhaps 'whocares' would like to comment. That Castres side looks like a mix of 1st XV and 2nd XV.

The Saint it looks like we'll be missing Tom Youngs, Cole, Mulipola, Slater, Deacon, Parling, Croft, Matera, Bai, Allen, Hempetema, Loamano, Morris. I think Ulster are missing three locks and Pienaar.

Hound of Harrow wrote:No team announcements from Leicester or Ulster yet.

Quins team v Castres.

15. Brown
14. Yarde
13. Hopper
12. Lowe
11. Tikoirotuma
10. Evans. 
9. Care

1. Marler (c.)
2. Ward
3. Collier
4. Matthews
5. Robson
6. Wallace
7. Robshaw
8. Easter

16. Buchanan
17. Lambert
18. Sinckler
19. Twomey
20. Trayfoot
21. K. Dickson
22. Turner-Hall
23. Lindsay-Hague

Castres...

15. Palis
14. Evans
13. Tuatara
12. Combezou
11. Grosso
10. Tales (c)
9. Kockott

1. Whetton.
2. Bornman
3. Diarra
4. Faasalele
5. Gray
6. Montes
7. Mach
8. Taumoepeau

16. Railleur
17. Lazar
18. Faanunu
19. Babillot
20. Samson
21. Dumora
22. Cabannes
23. Garcia

Perhaps 'whocares' would like to comment. That Castres side looks like a mix of 1st XV and 2nd XV.

I think / hope you got the forward numbers the other way around Hound it goes from 8 to 1 over here and not 1 to 8.
key guys missing for injury or other reasons : Lamerat (centre), Capo Ortega (lock) and Caballero (flanker). this defense is gonna leak loads of try in my opinion.

Not so sure Sarries will win. Clermont are a very good team and let's not forget have stomped Sarries 3 times out of 4.

The semi last season was a bit of a freak result - Saracens were also helped by Nigel Owens.

Officials do have a lot of power in rugby - too much in my opinion. It's a shame when you have to hope you don't get a certain official - fortunately one of the worst has now retired.

Too much controversy last season for my liking - both working for and against Saracens.

I bet Clermont don't want to see Owens again!

beshocked wrote:
I bet Clermont don't want to see Owens again!

also valid for most Frenchmen from what I've read in local forums and he's arguably the best ref in NWE (after Alain Rolland of course ). French fans/players/coaches just dont stop moaning about refs and last weekend with the foreigners ones in the T14 was one of the worst for that!

After seeing this team I think Saracens will lose:

http://www.saracens.com/saracens-name-team-to-face-clermont/

Saracens side to face ASM Clermont Auvergne:

15. Alex Goode; 14. Chris Ashton, 13. Chris Wyles, 12. Brad Barritt, 11. David Strettle; 10. Charlie Hodgson, 9. Richard Wigglesworth; Richard Barrington, 2. Jamie George, 3. Petrus Du Plessis, 4. George Kruis, 5. Alistair Hargreaves ©, 6. Kelly Brown, 7. Will Fraser, 8. Billy Vunipola.

16. Schalk Brits, 17. Rhys Gill, 18. James Johnston, 19. Jim Hamilton, 20. Jackson Wray, 21. Neil de Kock, 22. Owen Farrell, 23. Marcelo Bosch.


Chris Wyles is still not a centre..... Du Plessis could be in big trouble...

John Lacey is the ref.

Good back row mind beshocked...

Leicester Tigers (v Ulster Rugby, Welford Road, Saturday 7.45pm)
15 Mathew Tait
14 Blaine Scully
13 Manusamoa Tuilagi
12 Owen Williams
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Freddie Burns
9 Ben Youngs (c)
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 Leonardo Ghiraldini
3 Fraser Balmain
4 Brad Thorn
5 Graham Kitchener
6 Jamie Gibson
7 Julian Salvi
8 Jordan Crane

Replacements
16 Harry Thacker
17 Michele Rizzo
18 Tiziano Pasquali
19 Sebastian de Chaves
20 Robert Barbieri
21 David Mele
22 Sam Harrison
23 Miles Benjamin

If they perform yes. It's the positions I have mentioned that are the issue. It's a bit like when I highlighted weaknesses for the Bath game - Bath made the most of them.

Clermont are a very good side.

Quins have Nigel Owens for their game - should help them too - not that they should need it!

I wonder if Owens will ever get another game involving Clermont?

Clermont team for Saracens :



15 Nick Abendanon
14 Seru Nakaitaci
13 Aurelien Rougerie
12 Wesley Fofana
11 Zac Guildford
10 Camille Lopez
9 Ludovic Radosavljevic

1 Thomas Domingo
2 Benjamin Kayser
3 David Zirakashvili
4 Jamie Cudmore
5 Sebastien Vahaamahina
6 Fritz Lee
7 Julien Bonnaire
8 Damien Chouly

Replacements

John Ulugia
Raphael Chaume
Clement Ric
Loic Jacquet
Julien Bardy
Thierry Lacrampe
Brock James
Benson Stanley

Interestingly JD2 is not even of the bench, other than that those are the best players who are available. Fofana just back from injury. Strong pack with some emphasis on power with Fritz Lee at flanker (he's normally a number 8).

It's that frontrow and centres I am most worried about and understandably so.

If Fofana has been rushed back from injury I would certainly look to test him out.

Emphasis on power? Would have never guessed that!

I do prefer the Saracens bench though.

Quins win 25-9. Was close for a while.

Hound of Harrow wrote:Quins win 25-9. Was close for a while.

Quins seemed just a bit better and more precise in the second half. Almost seemed to up a gear.

I could only follow the scores on the Beeb website. No BT Sport or Sky where I am.

Was not the most engrossing first half. Quins started like they wanted to run Castres out of England. Then with nothing to show for it seemed to run out of juice for the rest of the first half. Second half they were more pragmatic and simply took advantage of being that little bit better and decided to grind Castres down. Which they did.

Thanks for that, doc. A pal texted me to say much the same.

Quins spread it wide too early in the first half so spent 40 mins of almost total possession going side to side until we lost the pill.

Thankfully second half we found plan B!!!!

Actually took the oppo on up front, Nev kicked a bit better from hand (still too wayward for a guy of his class) and a moment of magic turned it in the end.

Not looking forward to Wasps though, if we don't bring that second half performance for the full 80 they'll have a field day.

LondonTiger wrote:Nah Yappy, easy win for Quins, miserable Saturday for Tigers.

Part one correct, hope part two is wrong

Artful_Dodger wrote:Think the author is going to end up with egg on his face and I'm not an English rugby fan.

Well I am an England fan and as long as there's Bacon, sausages, fried toms and a couple of cheeky slices of black pudding (obviously washed down with the obligitory pint of builders tea) then the egg on the chops is most welcome!

He's not talking about food is he, it's one of those metaphorical things isn't it.......damn!

yappysnap wrote:Quins spread it wide too early in the first half so spent 40 mins of almost total possession going side to side until we lost the pill.

Thankfully second half we found plan B!!!!

Actually took the oppo on up front, Nev kicked a bit better from hand (still too wayward for a guy of his class) and a moment of magic turned it in the end.

Not looking forward to Wasps though, if we don't bring that second half performance for the full 80 they'll have a field day.

Agree Yappy.  The first half was a lot of headless chicken stuff.  Almost seemed like running around with no real plan.  Maybe the coaching staff felt holes would develop if they moved the ball around.  They went every direction except forwards!  I felt Castres went in with the plan to play defense and hope for the best.  They didn't exactly seem to be a dynamic attacking side.  They did play good defense.  

The big surprise for me was the Quins scrum.  That was surprisingly strong in the second half.  And in the second half it seemed to me Quins actually had a game plan.  Kick for territory, run straight ahead, grind it out.  The try was a total counter-point to all this:  a chip over the top, Evans gathered it then kicked forward and Care outran a couple of Castres players and touched it down.  Artfully done.  

I think Quins will need to up the level a bit as this isn't going to get easier.  But a good start, none the less.

Yea we definitely need to up the level! Can't afford 40 mins of wasted rugby before actually getting going.

Didn't see the game but often 'smart' rugby don't look that smart until the result is in and you suddenly become aware that there was a plan all along that didn't necessarily want too much in points from an expansive and furious first half but rather wanted such a game to simply tire the bejaysus out of the opponents (especially forwards)

Was there an aspect of that in the game, now that hindsight is in?

Possibly, I hope that's the case but if so it's pretty risky as we've done it all season and lost a fair few because of it.

Sale are playing out of their skin against Munster. The Sky commentary don't know what to say it's brilliant.

Good game this, Sale really impressing me. No idea if they can keep it up til the end but they've shown they can front up. I must admit that I thought they wouldn't take the Euro cup seriously this year and focus on the prem instead but they are proving me wrong, as I usually am.

Great game from Cips so far as well too