Australia v India First Test, Adelaide

First topic message reminder :

The test series is eventually getting underway tomorrow, under extraordinary circumstances.
The death of Phillip Hughes is a massive tragedy for the game, but alas, we have to move on, and in a way, what better way than actually getting back to playing the game, though the proposition would be a hugely demanding one for all the players involved. The first match of the restructured 4 test series is starting in Adelaide in a few hours, Adelaide that has been Hughes' adopted homeground for the past couple of seasons.
Though both skippers were under fitness issues leading up to the series start, Michael Clarke has recovered enough to lead the side while the Indians do not seem keen to take any chance with Mahendra Singh Dhoni's thumb, considering the up-coming world cup. So Virat Kohli will be leading India in a test for the first time as was originally scheduled, and wicketkeeper Wriddhiman Saha will be playing his 3rd test. India will be without Bhuvneshwar Kumar, their outstanding player of an otherwise disastrous series in England at least for the 1st couple of games due to an ankle injury.
how would events of the last few days reflect in the middle? What role would the bouncer play in the game and in the series? How different would be Kohli as a skipper to Dhoni? Will there be any bold selections like KL Rahul to open or Karn Sharma as the spinner from the Indians? Shane Watson and Mitchell Marsh playing together, what an interesting prospect that would be? Will Clarke be able to hold his increasingly rebelling body together? Which Mitchell Johnson will turn up for the game and series? Will the Indians do any better than what they managed in the last Australian tour?
Lets debate, and lets get back to the game.......

Warner with a second innings hundred yet again. What a player!

So a 363 run lead with 98 overs to be bowled tomorrow if they declare overnight.

That was a very enjoyable day of cricket for me. It had just about everything you'd want to see.
Great contests on (and just off to the sides) of the pitch. I wasn't expecting it to boil over like that.

Excellent batting by Marsh at the end there, could easily change the dynamic of the game

fantastic day's play it really was!!

Going to be tough for India to bat the day tomorrow..

If Aus were to declare overnight...India could eitehr win or lose.
Win 30%....
Lose 70%
and that's not a bad situation to be in for a time like India not taking their test cricket seriously and with a "popatwadi" attack....in Aussie conditions.
only if they bat on tomorrow (like Cook and Dhoni would do in this situation ) they would give India an escape route towards a draw.
I do expect Clarke to declare at this score.

Their spinner got a far more out of this pitch than our lead spinner....that's the single biggest difference between sides.

although standalone Karn's 4 out of 12 fallen Aussie wickets on debut is not bad and I hope they persist with the guy throuhg this series.

Batting wise....ours far more settled looking and their too dependent on Warner.

Tomm.......If Dhawan can( and he can) match either of warner's knocks we will coast through...else it will be a tense battle

India's chances of winning tomorrow are 1%

Missed most of the Aus innings in the end. Caught enough to see Rogers get out to a shot best described as filthy. What was he thinking?

Warner... wow, some run he's been on recently. And good acceleration from Marsh and Smith at the end as well.

Maybe an overnight declaration. 370 off 98 overs isn't impossible, but is highly unlikely on a pitch which was showing definite signs of wear and tear. Having said that India did make 369/5 on day 3, so Clarke may be a little bit wary. I'm sure commentators and pundits will be quick to jump on him if he does choose to bat on for 4 or 5 overs, but it's always much easier from the comfort of your armchair when your decision doesn't actually matter. I'd be surprised given Clarke's track record if he did bat on, but wouldn't blame him at all - especially as it's the first test in the series.

India should sort out their tail end batting. I know Shami slogged a few, but the way he batted when Saha was still there is simply not good enough. You have to try to hang around when there's still a senior batsman there; fair enough to swing a bit once you're with 10 and 11. Sharma (Karn) didn't look like he could bat at all, but it's his first game so maybe nerves; however his running between the wickets was atrocious - this is basic stuff! I think Aus will fancy getting the last 4 or 5 wickets for under 50 pretty much every time this series. By contrast you'd expect Johnson, Siddle, Harris, Lyon to add a few.

Didn't see much of India's bowling, but the thought process was a bit confused at times. All the around the wicket to Warner, I'm not sure what the thinking is there. Don't mind it so much for Ishant, because he can slant the ball in and then move it away, but it seems off for Shami. Didn't see much of Karn Sharma apart from getting Rogers (but that was hardly down to good bowling) - his figures don't make overly impressive reading though.

My own inclination would be for Australia to bat on for another 4 overs enabling them to score a further 20 or 30 runs and make the game just about totally safe. This would then allow their bowlers in this rain affected match 92 overs to get India all out, that's still 2 more than in a normal Test day. That also has the advantage of creating uncertainty for India's opening batsmen as they take the field at the start of play, wondering when the declaration will come and putting doubt in their minds. Throw in as well, only 10 minutes between innings as against, I think, a minimum of 15 minutes' notice for an overnight declaration - hardly ideal preparation for going out to face Johnson and Harris.

All very carefully thought out and planned. Do I think Clarke will do it? Probably not. He's already declared overnight in this Test and might well do it a second time. He's more attacking by nature in the field than me in my armchair and could well be keen to get out there and start taking wickets. Also, with the score as it currently is, India may be betwixt and between, unsure whether to go for victory or the draw - that itself could prove to Australia's advantage.

Intriguing. And that's before a ball is even bowled on the last day.

As for day 4, pretty well covered by a lot of the posts above. Lyon was close to being back to his effective best and deserved his fivefer. Warner rode his luck at times but again demonstrated his great value. Particularly enjoyed Marsh's cameo on the highlights as the fun really started. The major concern for Australia now seems to be Rogers - he's been out of form for a while and at last seemed to be doing ok before getting out poorly. As for India - not a good day, lacking sufficient control with the ball and in the field.

Talks of India winning the match on a Day 5
pitch against this attack are laughable.
Its all about survival. With Dhawan as our
opener and given our tail, we are virtually
starting with 5 wickets down. Need Vijay and
Pujara to bat long, I think.

Apparently The last time India batted 98 overs in a fourth innings was 2002.

India 16/1 for the win tomorrow. If anyone seriously believes its on, get some money on that!

VTR wrote:India 16/1 for the win tomorrow. If anyone seriously believes its on, get some money on that!

I really need Mike's mathematical expertise and mysti's knowledge of betting but by my reckoning the bookies are then giving India a 6 or 7% chance of winning. My gut feeling is that their chances are actually a bit less than that but it doesn't seem too wide of the mark.

You certainly won't find me putting any money on India but I could just about understand someone fancying a small flutter. If Australia declare overnight, India will pretty much (only?) need to make the same score on day 5 as they did on day 3 for the loss of just 5 wickets. I'm not sure that the wicket has deteriorated that much so far.

guildfordbat wrote:

VTR wrote:India 16/1 for the win tomorrow. If anyone seriously believes its on, get some money on that!

I really need Mike's mathematical expertise and mysti's knowledge of betting but by my reckoning the bookies are then giving India a 6 or 7% chance of winning. My gut feeling is that their chances are actually a bit less than that but it doesn't seem too wide of the mark.

You certainly won't find me putting any money on India but I could just about understand someone fancying a small flutter. If Australia declare overnight, India will pretty much (only?) need to make the same score on day 5 as they did on day 3 for the loss of just 5 wickets. I'm not sure that the wicket has deteriorated that much so far.

Well purely on those odds, it equates to just over a 6% chance. The bookies will factor a margin into that so they will understate it, meaning they must view India as having about an 8% chance of winning. That is a bit higher than you would think, but probably factors in Clarke being one of the more aggressive captains who may declare overnight - which would be just about India's only way of winning. If Aus bat on those odds will get longer and longer by the over

VTR wrote:

guildfordbat wrote:

VTR wrote:India 16/1 for the win tomorrow. If anyone seriously believes its on, get some money on that!

I really need Mike's mathematical expertise and mysti's knowledge of betting but by my reckoning the bookies are then giving India a 6 or 7% chance of winning. My gut feeling is that their chances are actually a bit less than that but it doesn't seem too wide of the mark.

You certainly won't find me putting any money on India but I could just about understand someone fancying a small flutter. If Australia declare overnight, India will pretty much (only?) need to make the same score on day 5 as they did on day 3 for the loss of just 5 wickets. I'm not sure that the wicket has deteriorated that much so far.

Well purely on those odds, it equates to just over a 6% chance. The bookies will factor a margin into that so they will understate it, meaning they must view India as having about an 8% chance of winning. That is a bit higher than you would think, but probably factors in Clarke being one of the more aggressive captains who may declare overnight - which would be just about India's only way of winning. If Aus bat on those odds will get longer and longer by the over

VTR - yep, our assessment is very much the same. You're clearly right to flag the bit I've just put in bold - I'll start betting when I see a poor bookie!

The other thing about maybe making the game a bit safer is that it allows you to have attacking fields throughout. And I get the feeling Lyon may be more dangerous on this pitch if India are just looking to see him off; apart from Rohit all his wickets came from defensive prods with the pitch helping out.

Mike Selig wrote:The other thing about maybe making the game a bit safer is that it allows you to have attacking fields throughout. And I get the feeling Lyon may be more dangerous on this pitch if India are just looking to see him off; apart from Rohit all his wickets came from defensive prods with the pitch helping out.

Its an interesting conundrum. Attacking fields vs defensive minded batsmen, or a target that would be gettable but nearing a RR of 4 would need some fairly attacking batting maybe creating more chances of caught in the field/bowled rather than lbw, caught behind/short fielding positions in the former .

it's not whether India can win or not........if they do not go for a win....i.e bat positively like they did in first inning......

and fall in a survival-only-trap...defeat is 120% certain...probably around tea time....game over. There should be no negative bone....play positive, play fearless......and if Dhwan gets going it makes life much easier for India.


The ONLY way of creating a draw option..... is by putting fear of defeat in Aus by the end of first session......130 odd for 1 type of score line at lunch time....and spreading them out....stop them from hounding with 6 close-ins.


And in doing so...i.e positive brand of cricket.... India might actually win it...on a flat pitch.......this is one of the best batting line-ups in the world......and quite used to chasing down 350ish totals...albeit in subcontinent conditions....but here they have double the overs.....

guildfordbat wrote:

VTR wrote:

guildfordbat wrote:

VTR wrote:India 16/1 for the win tomorrow. If anyone seriously believes its on, get some money on that!

I really need Mike's mathematical expertise and mysti's knowledge of betting but by my reckoning the bookies are then giving India a 6 or 7% chance of winning. My gut feeling is that their chances are actually a bit less than that but it doesn't seem too wide of the mark.

You certainly won't find me putting any money on India but I could just about understand someone fancying a small flutter. If Australia declare overnight, India will pretty much (only?) need to make the same score on day 5 as they did on day 3 for the loss of just 5 wickets. I'm not sure that the wicket has deteriorated that much so far.

Well purely on those odds, it equates to just over a 6% chance. The bookies will factor a margin into that so they will understate it, meaning they must view India as having about an 8% chance of winning. That is a bit higher than you would think, but probably factors in Clarke being one of the more aggressive captains who may declare overnight - which would be just about India's only way of winning. If Aus bat on those odds will get longer and longer by the over

VTR - yep, our assessment is very much the same. You're clearly right to flag the bit I've just put in bold - I'll start betting when I see a poor bookie!

While not being an expert in betting, surely that would go the other way? Bookies would overstate India's chances of winning, thus shortening the odds, and diminishing the punter's returns if they did win? Which in reality means the bookies rate India's chances of victory at something between 5 and 6 percent in all likelihood, which ties in with guildford's gut feeling.

Honestly, can't see India winning having to chase 369. Even in the modern game, once you get past 250, it's heavy days. Just think with 98 overs, Time is already against the Aussies, they can't really want that much more time out in the middle.

Saying that. India aren't going to survive, they need to try thrive and chase whatever they're set. They don't have it in them

MFC - I think you are right, the brain is not quite there today!

16/1 - let's say 6% chance to keep it simple
20/1 - 5% chance

So for the bookies to make a margin they overstate the chances, which reduces the amount paid out. There is probably a lot more to it than that even, I am fairly sure odds also alter as amounts are wagered on each outcome, so the odds may not be reflective of probability anyway.

the odds are, as I understand it, a reflection of the way people bet, hence why England are always horrendously underpriced with English bookies whenever a football worlcup comes around.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:the odds are, as I understand it, a reflection of the way people bet, hence why England are always horrendously underpriced with English bookies whenever a football worlcup comes around.

Yep, and then The Sun pick up on it saying "We are third favourites, come on En-ger-land, white van man says this time we will do it!"

With the Aus-Ind series I got those odds off an English bookmaker so I was thinking low amounts wagered, odds might be close to probability. But I am out of my depth now, where are the gambling experts today, probably in the bookies I suppose!

KP_fan wrote:If Aus were to declare overnight...India could eitehr win or lose.
Win 30%....
Lose 70%

What on earth? That is levels of optimism that I could not even extend to.

364 to chase, on a Day Five pitch, away from home, against an attack comprising of Johnson, Harris and Siddle, and a spinner who took five-for in the first innings. India will not even contemplate going for the win.

It will either be a draw or an Australian win; I am inclined to the former if one, or perhaps both, of Kohli and Pujara can bat for at least one and a half sessions, and if Johnson is as off-colour as he was during the first innings.

Not anymore Duty, but there was a time when you had it in you. Mitchell Johnson took away your innocence

kingraf wrote:Not anymore Duty,  but there was a time when you had it in you. Mitchell Johnson took away your innocence

He did indeed.

Then he went off to play a game of cricket or something.

And Australia have declared!

I'm not sure it will be easy for India to chase down 360 odd runs on Day 5.

The pitch has deteriorated as evidenced by the lean run rate in between overs 22-40 yesterday (omitting the disastrous 36th over from Aaron which went for 14 runs... Australia scored only 43 runs in 17 overs) when Warner and Watson had to dig in and the Indian attack (mainly Ishant, Aaron and RG Sharma) looked very good and were actually very tidy and defensive. So bearing that in mind - it will be nothing like Day 3 pitch conditions today.

The Marsh innings was a specific instruction to accelerate the scoring obviously and he got away with it to score that quick 40.
At one stage I didn't think Australia would get a 310-320 run lead at the close of play when the run rate had dropped to between 2.5-3.0 for a while.

The verbal altercations yesterday worked in Australia's favour. The Indian players definitely lost the plot and were taken advantage of. I can't believe Warner came out of it almost looking like an angel... or more like butter wouldn't melt in his mouth. I was a little surprised at Kohli and Aaron's verbal aggression towards Warner and Smith but that just shows how much is at stake. I thought the umpires handled those flare ups quite well. I now expect to see a fair amount of chatter when Lyon has a bowl and the attacking field is set close in. Also maybe there'll be some encouraging "talk" when the quicks are in operation in this first session.

Unlucky Dhawan... thought that hit his shoulder.

Really good bouncer from Mitch though. In fairness it's either as close as it can get to the glove, or it's just flicked it, so not the worst decision of all time either way. Probably a bit unlucky, although he didn't play it well either.

Good early breakthrough for Australia. These two are key now for India, they're the two guys who you would say could bat for a really long time.

Hi Dog - interesting what you say about the pitch deterioration. Most of what I've watched of this Test has been in highlights packages and that can make it difficult to properly appreciate when batsmen are having to dig in due to the surface. Far easier to witness and enjoy Marsh's rapid acceleration.

The altercation was daft from an Indian perspective. Agree with you that the umpires calmed it down well. Warne mentioned early on yesterday that he had chatted to Lyon who was very impressed by Gould's demeanour, (Lyon) referring to him as 'a legend' and how much he was enjoying the banter with him.

Anyway, you'll be pleased that Clarke ignored my suggestion of batting on for a short time and as a result already has one India batsman back in the hutch. Looked a bit fortunate but he and Johnson won't be worrying about that.

With you for another half hour and now on comes Lyon ....

Lyon seems really up for this. Plenty of bounce. Pleased to see he's put a leg slip in as well. Pujara sees out the over but not with too much confidence.

That's it from me.

Lyon needs to stay patient and keep at it. Meanwhile, vital that Pujara and Vijay also maintain their concentration against the speedsters at the other end.

Still fancy an Australian win but India can still hope for a draw as I head for bed.

Night, folks.

G'night Guildford. See you in the morning.

The Lyon strikes!

Lovely session of cricket.

Nathan Lyon has had the Indian top order under his spell, yet has had scant reward for his guile and craft.

Good to see India meeting the challenge with a positive air.

Think I am favouring the draw at this specific moment; one inspired spell to change it for Australia, though. No talk of an Indian win unless these two bat out the whole afternoon!

Cricket never ceases to amaze me. So many possible ways to get out.

This match has had just about everything.

Clarke has done his other hamstring now.
The poor bloke has just hobbled off the field. Talk about bad luck.
Surely he won't be fit for Brisbane now.

Duty281 wrote:India will not even contemplate going for the win.

They might be now!

Stupendous effort from Kohli and Vijay thus far.

It will still take a monumental effort for the tourists to win this game, seeing as how Australia can, in all fairness, bowl with a large degree of negativity should they so wish, but they may just have eliminated defeat from the equation.

What a Test match.

Not surprised Australia are now in a position from which victory is unlikely. These Indian kids can bat. And bat big. They won't win... but they've put up a big boy marker. They're here to play.

Clarke... I said it day one. It's not bad luck, it's bad rehab.

Ooh Vijay gets away with one hitting halfway up middle. To be fair, I thought it looked high myself

The Aussies will know, this isn't a particularly long batting line up, if they can go bang bang, it's very possible they'll go bang bang bang bang bang as The English showed

Jeez, three hundreds in four innings at Adelaide... They should give Kohli his own little corner in the stadium

India might win this you know? Milking four runs an over without having to do too much.

Saying that... there goes Vijay. Been lucky... think he'd rather have been given out on 85 or 88 than 99 mind.

Here we go, the first bang... will we see another one?

Bang bang

Ooh, he was miles away... Might have been a case for LBW mind you.

Uh-oh, major Indian wobble.

Sharma looking like a deer caught in the headlights...

Kohli stepping on the gas... India about to win a Test match having taken only twelve wickets

Bang
bang
bang

Bang
bang
bang
bang

65 to win, four wickets to get

That's the big one.
Marvellous batting except for that last shot.