Aviva Premiership - Round 16

Again the club fixtures slip under the radar, but here goes:

Table

56pts Northampton
47pts Bath
==========================
44pts Saracens, Exeter
==========================
43pts Sale, Leicester, Wasps
==========================
35pts Gloucester
34pts Harlequins
23pts Newcastle, London Irish
==========================
1pt London Welsh



Fixtures

Fri 27th Feb 15

19:45 NORTHAMPTON SAINTS  v   HARLEQUINS Franklin's Gardens BT Sport
Both teams missing important players, but with Lawes and Wood possibly able to feature in some capacity expect quins to be harder hit. After gifting Bath a 10pt lead, Saints controlled the match well to secure an important away win. Meanwhile Quins struggled at home to Exeter, despite the Chiefs seeing 3 yellow cards. Quins do not have the depth of squad capable of coping with the loss of players like Marler, Easter, Robshaw and Brown. Could be an interesting match-up between two scrum halves (Dickson and Care) desperate to catch Lancaster's eye. Will Care try too hard? with Danny Care rules out we get the Dickson boys going head to head.
I struggle to see anything other than a Saints win.


Sat 28th Feb 15

14:30 LONDON WELSH  v   LONDON IRISH Kassam Stadium
Not many teams have failed to get the TBP against LW. London Irish however "only" got 3 tries in a comfortable win at the Madj on Boxing Day. They will want to get all four this time but will need to show much more precision than they have in the last two rounds. Looking at their remaining fixtures this looks like Welsh's best chance to secure a win this season. Confidence is shot to pieces though and the team look like a Pub XV who met in the car park.

15:00 LEICESTER TIGERS  v   SALE SHARKS Welford Road
A repeat of the previous two meetings between these sides will be good for Tiger's Play-Off hopes, but bad for the fans nerves. Twice Leicester have scored a flurry of second half points to overturn large deficits and secure TBP wins. I struggle to see us scoring 4 tries this weekend, so will need to control the game better up front. If Burns is fit, then with Sale posibly missing both half-backs, Leicester should be able to play the game in the right parts of the pitch and grind out a win.


15:00 SARACENS  v   NEWCASTLE FALCONS Allianz Park
At the start of the season you would have marked this down as a guaranteed home win. However Falcons are playing well, while Saracens have major issues at 10 with Farrell and Hodgson both struggling with injuries and Goode with England. Missing Brookes and Furno I do feel that Saracens should be too strong up front, but they have to play better than they have in recent weeks.

15:15 EXETER CHIEFS  v   BATH RUGBY Sandy Park BT Sport
Huge game and and it is possible that a defeat could see Bath drop from 2nd to 6th. Bath struggled to impose themselves against Saints, and with Chiefs close to full strength could well struggle again - especially if Henry Thomas is still with England. Should be a smashing match up between the back rows. Can Bath get Burgess into the game more? I have this feeling that Bath are the only team Exeter have yet to beat in the AP - is this correct? If so this would be a great time to break the duck.


Sun 1st Mar 15

13:00 WASPS  v   GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Wasps will be looking for another big win in Coventry. With Glaws missing Hibbard, Laidlaw and 36 to internationals plus Morgan (and possibly Kvesic) injured it is hard to see them resisting Wasps.

NORTHAMPTON SAINTS TEAM TO PLAY HARLEQUINS

15 James WILSON
14 Ken PISI
13 George PISI
12 Tom STEPHENSON
11 Jamie ELLIOTT
10 Stephen MYLER
9 Lee DICKSON (capt)
1 Alex WALLER
2 Mike HAYWOOD
3 Gareth DENMAN
4 Courtney LAWES
5 Christian DAY
6 Samu MANOA
7 Calum CLARK
8 Sam DICKINSON

16 Matti WILLIAMS
17 Alex CORBISIERO
18 Tom MERCEY
19 Tom WOOD
20 Phil DOWSON
21 Kahn FOTUALI’I
22 Sam OLVER
23 Ahsee TUALA

Harlequins Team
15. Ugo Monye
14. Marland Yarde
13. Matt Hopper
12. Harry Sloan
11. Charlie Walker
10. Nick Evans
9. Karl Dickson

1. Mark Lambert
2. Dave Ward
3. Kyle Sinckler
4. Charlie Matthews
5. George Robson©
6. Jack Clifford
7. Luke Wallace
8. Netani Talei

16. Rob Buchanan
17. Darryl Marfo
18. Matt Shields
19. Sam Twomey
20. Joe Trayfoot
21. Tito Tebaldi
22. Ben Botica
23. Ollie Lindsay-Hague

I'm a glass half full type of guy and i reckon we could sneak the win at Saracens , if we bullet the ball about like we have been and run at wide channels we'll score trys against them.

Looking at those sides, even with Saints not firing at the moment I can't see anything other than a very convincing win for Saints; their pack looks noticeably stronger and given their propensity to stick every penalty into the corner I can see that pack rumbling over for a few scores.

The Chiefs v Bath game looks to be the pick of the round. I would normally go with Chiefs to win in at home, but Bath seem to be Chiefs' bogey side.

Looking at those two sides I can't see anything other than a comfortable win for Saints in this one.

Elsewhere I hope that we avoid the potential banana skin that is essentially Welsh's cup final now, as they'll see this as their best chance for a win this season. We'll need to be more clinical than we have the past two games and get off to a decent start to not give them any encouragement whatsoever.

Tigers will do what Tigers do and grind out a win against Sale, but I doubt it will be pretty.
I can see Falcons nicking it on the plastic pitch at the Aliianz against a slightly misfiring Saracens team.
I'm going to go with the Chiefs to break their duck against Bath, and Wasps to notch up another comfortable win at the Ricoh!

Surprised that three people think Saracens will struggle. All stats point to a Saracens win. Even form does too. I guess I will be accused of arrogance but come on - look at the league position, Saracens home record this season, head to head of Saracens vs Newcastle, betting odds etc.

The loss to Sale is irrelevant because the game will be at Allianz Park.

http://www.premiershiprugby.com/matchcentre/fixtures/35065.php

The only team to beat Saracens at home this season was Saints. You honestly think Newcastle will be the 2nd? They have a very daunting task indeed.

Sarries with their so called patchy form are still 3rd of a reason.

Beshocked,

I think your underestimating us as a side, We're pretty well organised up front and get into pattern fairly well and like to move the ball.  

I'd argue that only Bosch out of the available Saracens players would get into our back line at the moment

Of course Saracens should win. I think they will win, but it is not the banker result I would have expected a few months ago. Unless Charlie is fit, Sarries go into this game with Mordt at 10 maybe and no recognised goal kicker. This is the best time to be playing Sarries, but Falcons will probably be unable to secure enough decent possession to let their backs have a good go.

While a loss away from home may be irrelevant, the performance and complete lack of effort from half the team is surely a matter of concern?

Driver wrote:Beshocked,

I think your underestimating us as a side, We're pretty well organised up front and get into pattern fairly well and like to move the ball.  

I'd argue that only Bosch out of the available Saracens players would get into our back line at the moment

I think you are overestimating your own guys too. After all their performance down in Devon was pretty woeful by all accounts. Looking at the possible back lines:

I would not take de Kock over Blair, but nor would I take Blair over de Kock.
If fit I would take Hodgson over Catterick in a heartbeat. If Mordt then as above though maybe Catterick shades it as he can kick goals.
I would take Barritt and Bosch over both Socino and Powell.
I would have to include Sinotti, but would rate Strettle, Ashton (and Wyles) ahead of Tait.
Hammersley looks good, and better than Wyles or Ransom.


So by that measure only two of the Falcons backs would get into the Sarries back line based on available players.

Driver  perhaps I am underestimating you but you're joint 10th for a reason.

I just don't think you're as good as you think you are. There's a reason why even though Saracens are in patchy form they are still 3rd, Newcastle are supposedly in great form but 10th.

I do think Saracens have much better players and I think the only way Newcastle will win is if Saracens don't play well.

Looking at Saracens form at home that looks  unlikely.

Londontiger the bookies respectively disagree.

I agree Mordt at 10 might be a problem but I still think Saracens should be too strong in every other position.

With all due respect, Newcastle don't pose the same sort of threat as the likes of Bath,Clermont and Munster yet Saracens dispatched them.


By the way if this game was at Newcastle I would see it as a tough fixture but not at Allianz Park. Saracens away form has been pretty poor this season but the home form has been good.


Newcastle's only away win this season was vs LW. Saracens only home loss this season was against Saints..... That gives you an idea of the daunting task Newcastle face.

I'd take Blair , Catterick , Sinoti , Soccino and Hammers over De Kock , Mordt , Ashton , Barritt and Wyles.


You've bought up about us having one bad game at Chiefs but ignore that we took a LTBP with the same squad from Northampton Saints at full strength and just drew with a London Wasps side who are a better outfit than Saracens.

Falcons backs pose more of a threat than Bath do when missing Ford, Joseph and Watson.

Against Clermont Sarries were in a run of very good form, against Munster fielded a stronger side than we will see at the weekend.

I agree that if they play well Sarries will win, and quite possibly easily. but they have not been playing well hence why they are vulnerable. That does not mean they will lose but that they could lose.

Finally table positions can breed arrogance and complacency amongst fans and players. Do you need reminding that only two weeks ago the other joint 10th team were only a marginal refs call away from beating the top team?

Upsets happen, and sorry that it offends you so but right now Sarries are vulnerable to an upset. Of course if we expected Falcons to win - it would not be an upset.

Driver wrote:I'd take Blair , Catterick , Sinoti , Soccino and Hammers over De Kock , Mordt , Ashton , Barritt and Wyles.

Of course you would, you are a fan - and fans usually fall into one of two camps:

1) Blind belief in their players and their abilities - leading to them to over-rate their players and under-rate the opposition. You and Beshocked are both falling into this camp. As a neutral I stand by my ratings and deem them almost impartial (not fully as I prefer Falcons as a club)

2) Pessimism about their team and a real gallows humour mentality. This is my group for Tigers at the moment. We are crap (yet only 1 point behind 3rd spot)

Wasps better than Saracens? Have you looked at the AP table?

Driver that is funny. Sinoti has done pretty well in the AP this season but Ashton is one of the best wingers in Europe (on the long list for European player).

Both are equal in the AP try count but Ashton has 4 tries against Clermont and Munster....

As for being better than Barritt and Wyles - that's funny.

De Kock and Mordt - perhaps....

We'll see what happens on the weekend but I do find the hyping of your players amusing.

You drew with Wasps at home and lost to Saints - how can you be proud of that?

Would you take a plucky loss to us as a victory?

A draw against one of the best sides in the league a running Saints closer than Sarries? 

Howay man , Specsavers must be making a fortune off your Saracens tinted specs.

Our front row has been a huge issue for us this season. Our scrum has gone backward at some rate in games...and when your on the back foot like that it makes games very difficult.
Its an area we simply have to improve.
We are still very much a work in progress...we need to sign players in key positions and others need time to gain experience as they are very young.
As to the game....we were appalling at Exeter...but they are a very good side at the same time.

I don't think we will win at Sarries...but I do hope and think it wont be a cricket score that some maybe think it will.

Id love to see us really get at them and shock them a bit early doors. Get Tuilagi smashing in at a few of them.

Londontiger vulnerable away from home - I could agree on that. At Allianz Park - no I completely disagree. Saracens have been strong at home except for the loss vs Saints (the best side in the league).

You can say I was wrong if Newcastle do pull off the upset of the season (that's what it would be).

It's not blind belief in the Saracens players - I don't think Goode is the best 15 in England (that's Brown). I don't think Wigglesworth is the best 9 (an in form Care and Youngs are much better). Dickson is very good too. I don't think Bosch is the best 13 - he's been in a bit of poor form.

Farrell has been poor for almost a year.

Believing that the Saracens backline is better than the Newcastle one is not unreasonable.

Driver thinks Falcons backs are better than the lineup Sarries can put out. You think yours are much better. I am in the middle - I think Sarries backs are better but by nowhere near as much as you believe. I think you are both over-rating your own backs and under-rating the opposition. Understandable as we all see our own players more. This is why I view Kitchener as better than Kruis but I have to accept that Lancaster as a neutral see's it differently.

Kitchener is better than Kruis!

Driver you lost though

Saracens tinted specs because I think Saracens will beat Newcastle (such arrogance).

I thought England would beat Italy too!

My main point is that Saracens are one of the toughest sides to beat away from home.

The loss to Sale is being exaggerated - it was not at Allianz Park.

I should add that Saracens have beaten Newcastle this season already.

Londontiger Saracens are only missing two 10s in the backline.

Kruis vs Kitchener - both are good players - though Kruis is not doing too badly for England now he has the opportunity.


Anyway a match is not played on paper. We can go around in circles but still Saracens' trump card is that home form this season.

I believe that Mccall will give the players a good old kick up the bottom and Newcastle will be the victims.

Sarries have been very tough to beat this season when playing well - ask Munster,Bath and Clermont.

In waht way is the loss to Sale being exaggerated beshocked, I don't get what you mean?

Saracens are hard to beat at Allianz Park, and quite rightly significant favourites. However if you have to play them in Barnet - during the 6Ns when they have an injury crisis at fly half is surely the best time.

Could I remind you of a similar fixture last year when London Irish were the visitors on a 6Ns weekend.

It is reasonable to state that you believe that Saracens are clear favourites to win, and this seasons results would indicate they are a significantly better team than Falcons. It is arrogance however to refuses to accept that there is any chance of a defeat.

Suppose......

Least our star winger can tackle people

To cheer you up Pete:

http://www.premiershiprugby.com/matchcentre/fixtures/30592.php

Basically the belief is that because Saracens played poorly vs Sale away from home it means that will play just as badly at Allianz Park.

Saracens' away form this whole season has been below par with losses to Gloucester,Exeter,Bath,Sale and a draw to Leicester.

6/7 at home (losing against the best side), 3/8 away from home.

Londontiger chance to lose in any match - it's just unlikely - do the bookies normally get it wrong? - Saracens are 1/25.

If I am wrong I will concede that I was wrong. I will praise Newcastle and say that I was wrong to doubt them.

I don't think missing a fly half or two is the biggest crisis- still enough firepower in the pack and backs.

Newcastle's highly rate backs will be less relevant if the Sarries pack get on top anyway.

Your more than likely going to be playing a centre at 10 and have struggled traditionally in the 6Ns. It's amazing that it seems inconcivable to you that Falcons have no chance against Saracens.

Driver think about this way - Bath couldn't beat us. I would say Bath are currently one of the best sides in the league. The only team who have beaten us at Allianz Park is Saints.

What's your case for a win?

My case for a win is our form at home, I think our pack is stronger and even if Mordt is at 10 at least he'll have an experienced backline to work with. You might not rate our backline but they are good enough to cause Newcastle problems.

I am sorry that I don't see the Newcastle backline as on par of that of Clermont.... nor the pack....

Even if we say hypothetically that you've got a superior backline - you'll need the pack to front up.

You can say I was wrong if Newcastle do pull off the upset of the season (that's what it would be).

That's a bit far fetched Beshocked. Your not Saints that would have been the upset.

Oh and we beat Stade France....that's better than beating your lot...

beshocked wrote:Londontiger chance to lose in any match - it's just unlikely - do the bookies normally get it wrong? - Saracens are 1/25.

Only on Betfair - not a good indicator. Earlier on there the best odds you coudl get for Falcons was 1/4 (now shifted to 2/1)

On other games (excl tomorrows) it has all 8 teams as worse than evens to win.

Geordiefalcon well obviously you've played Saints at FG so that can't happen.

You haven't beaten Saracens in a long time.

Stade Francais - can't be that good if they come 3rd in an Amlin group of Newcastle,Dragons,Bucuresti Wolves and themselves.

We'll see if Newcastle live up to all the hype on the weekend. Newcastle's chances have been talked up - not really based on anything substantial though.

beshocked wrote:Geordiefalcon well obviously you've played Saints at FG so that can't happen.

I can only assume that you had not realised he was being humourous

beshocked wrote:We'll see if Newcastle live up to all the hype on the weekend. Newcastle's chances have been talked up - not really based on anything substantial though.

One fan has suggested they might win, and stated that their backs are better than yours. Not exactly a lot of hype really.

Trip to Devon aside, Falcons have played some good stuff and, as they demonstrated with 4 tries against Northampton at the Gardens are capable of scoring against any team at any venue. The chances of them winning are not huge - but I stand by my assertion that Sarries are vulnerable in fact I would say this weekend is the most vulnerable Sarries will be at home this season.

the only team I would say have zero chance (rounded to 2 decimal places) of winning at Allianz this weekend would be LW. I woudl put Leicester and London Irish's (sorry Pete, Burger, Heaf et al) below Falcons, and quite possibly Gloucester and Quins. Without Cipriani I may even say Falcons have more chance of a win than Sale would.

and as I said earlier there is recent precedent, Feb 2014 Sarries (in better form than now) lost at home to London Irish (who were in poorer form than Falcons are)

Of course the chances of a Falcons win are probably lower than a heavy defeat.

I think Quins and Falcons will both win at a canter this weekend

yappysnap wrote:I think Quins and Falcons will both win at a canter this weekend

Sounds good to me.

Beshocked, don't take things too much too heart

I expect a Sarries win, but us falcons fans have a right to back our side a bit more as we have played so much better rugby this season.

The players are buying in to the tactics etc and bar Exeter last week generally giving all teams a tough game.

You will most likely win, but if we can match the standards we have set ourselves with performances this season it shouldn't be an easy win.

It will be interesting to see.

Anyway what about the other games this week

LondonTiger wrote:To cheer you up Pete:

http://www.premiershiprugby.com/matchcentre/fixtures/30592.php

Thanks mate.

LondonTiger wrote:

yappysnap wrote:I think Quins and Falcons will both win at a canter this weekend

Sounds good to me.

A majority vote then, motion carried!

Will you two stop hyping up the Falcons man!!!

Sale Team:

Mike Haley, Tom Arscott, Johnny Leota, Sam Tuitupou, Mark Cueto, Nick Macleod, Chris Cusiter, Eifion Lewis Roberts, Marc Jones, Vadim Cobilas, Jonathan Mills, Nathan Hines, Dan Braid (capt.), Magnus Lund, Josh Beaumont.

Replacements: Tommy Taylor, Maxim Cobilas, Ross Harrison, Mark Easter, David Seymour, Will Cliff, Joe Ford, Tom Brady.

Still no Salvi for Tigers:

Ayerza, Brigs, Mulipola, Thorn, Parling, Pearce, Gibson, Crane, Harrison, Burns, Thompstone, Bai, Goneva, Scully, Tait

Reps: Thacker, rizzo, Balmain, De Chaves, Whetton, Mele, Bell, Loamanu

Bath Rugby team to face Exeter Chiefs

15. Tom Homer
14. Semesa Rokoduguni
13. Sam Burgess
12. Kyle Eastmond
11. Olly Woodburn
10. Ollie Devoto
9. Micky Young
1. Nick Auterac
2. Ross Batty
3. Kane Palma-Newport
4. Stuart Hooper ( c )
5. Dominic Day
6. Carl Fearns
7. Francois Louw
8. Leroy Houston

Replacements

16. Rob Webber
17. Beno Obano
18. Max Lahiff
19. Alafoti Faosiliva
20. Matt Garvey
21. Chris Cook
22. Rory Jennings
23. Luke Arscott


Not sure why Young has kept his place after last week, I thought he played like a bloke who knows he is leaving at the end of the season. I have a nasty feeling that this could be the day that Exeter finally get that first win...

GeordieFalcon wrote:Will you two stop hyping up the Falcons man!!!

Why when they're clearly favourites?

15 Alex Tait, 14. Sinoti Sinoti, 13. Adam Powell, 12. Juan Pablo Socino, 11. Gonzalo Tiesi, 10. Tom Catterick, 9. Mike Blair; 1. Rob Vickers, 2. Scott Lawson, 3. Juan Pablo Orlandi, 4. Kane Thompson, 5. Dom Barrow, 6. Will Welch (c), 7. Andy Saull, 8. Mark Wilson.

Replacements: 16. Rob Hawkins, 17. Alex Rogers, 18. Mark Irving, 19. Calum Green, 20. Chris York, 21. Ruki Tipuna, 22. Rory Clegg, 23. Alex Tuilagi.

Glaws
Charlie Sharples; Jonny May, Mark Atkinson, Bill Meakes, Henry Purdy; James Hook, Dan Robson; Dan Murphy, Darren Dawidiuk, John Afoa; Tom Savage (capt), Tom Palmer; Ross Moriarty, Matt Kvesic, Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements:
Aleki Lutui, Yann Thomas, Sila Puafisi, James Hudson, Jacob Rowan, Callum Braley, Billy Burns, Gareth Evans

Is it me or if certain teams get certain results we could see Potentially 5 teams joint second on points.

Although all results are unlikely

Welly wrote:Is it me or if certain teams get certain results we could see Potentially 5 teams joint second on points.

Although all results are unlikely

Exeter beat Bath, no TBPs but an LBP
Sarries beat Falcons, no TBP
Wasps and the winners of Tigers/Exeter get TBP wins.

Then we see 5 teams all on 48 points.

Saracens team to face Newcastle Falcons:
1 Rhys Gill, 2 Jamie George, 3 Petrus Du Plessis; 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Alistair Hargreaves ©; 6 Nick De Jager, 7 Jacques Burger, 8 Jackson Wray; 9 Neil De Kock, 10 Charlie Hodgson; 11 David Strettle, 12 Brad Barritt, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 14 Chris Wyles; 15 Ben Ransom

Replacements: 16 Brett Sharman, 17 Richard Barrington, 18 Juan Figallo, 19 Jim Hamilton, 20 Matt Hankin, 21 Ben Spencer, 22 Nils Mordt, 23 Tim Streather.

London Irish:

15. Andrew Fenby; 14. Alex Lewington; 13. Tom Fowlie; 12. Eamonn Sheridan; 11. James Short; 10. Shane Geraghty*; 9. Scott Steele; 1. Matt Parr; 2. David Paice*; 3. Leo Halavatau; 4. George Skivington (Captain); 5. Nic Rouse; 6. Ofisa Treviranus*; 7. Conor Gilsenan; 8. Tom Guest

Replacements: 16. Jimmy Stevens; 17. Tom Court*; 18. Richard Palframan; 19. Jebb Sinclair*; 20. Luke Narraway*; 21. Darren Allinson; 22. Chris Noakes; 23. Eoin Griffin


No surprises in selection. Great to see Fowlie retained at 13.

Is Weepu playing for Wasps now?

yappysnap wrote:Is Weepu playing for Wasps now?

Till the end of the season, yes.

http://www1.skysports.com/rugby-union/news/12321/9734373/wasps-sign-scrum-half-piri-weepu-from-london-welsh