Madrid Masters 2016

First topic message reminder :

I'll update with the men's draw when it's out on Saturday, but the main news so far is who's in it - Djokovic is back after skipping this event for a few years and Federer has also decided to add the event to his previously bare schedule.

The women's main draw also starts Saturday, but without Serena who's played 3 events since last year's US Open. Some interesting opportunities at the top of the women's game coming up with Serena's defence of her French and Wimbledon titles looking shaky.

Men's Draw:
http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2016/1536/mds.pdf

Projected Quarter Finals
Djokovic-Tsonga
Wawrinka-Nishikori
Federer-Nadal
Murray-Berdych

29 wins over non Djokdal players on clay in a row. #clayray

I had a bit of a grump over his first match. But that's teo very fine wind in a row for murray there. Very likely sets up a great weekend ding dong

Beating Simon and Berdych - two good returners - without facing a sniff of a BP is a good sign that his serve is clicking nicely.

Bizarre that in the last two tournaments he's limped past Herbert, Stepanek and Paire, the latter choking it away in rather typical fashion, but destroyed Raonic, Simon, Berdych and been v competitive vs Nadal. Microcosm of Murray's career in a way, but also why I "enjoy" supporting him

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Beating Simon and Berdych - two good returners - without facing a sniff of a BP is a good sign that his serve is clicking nicely.

Bizarre that in the last two tournaments he's limped past Herbert, Stepanek and Paire, the latter choking it away in rather typical fashion, but destroyed Raonic, Simon, Berdych and been v competitive vs Nadal. Microcosm of Murray's career in a way, but also why I "enjoy" supporting him

There is patterns there. Herbert and Paire matches were his first of the season on clay so rust had to be shaken off and then Stepanek's eccentric and different style coupled with it being Murray's first match at the altitude of Madrid whereas Stepanek had come through qualifiers made it a struggle. In bith tournaments once Andy has played his way into the tournament he has got better and better.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Beating Simon and Berdych - two good returners - without facing a sniff of a BP is a good sign that his serve is clicking nicely.

Bizarre that in the last two tournaments he's limped past Herbert, Stepanek and Paire, the latter choking it away in rather typical fashion, but destroyed Raonic, Simon, Berdych and been v competitive vs Nadal. Microcosm of Murray's career in a way, but also why I "enjoy" supporting him

There is patterns there. Herbert and Paire matches were his first of the season on clay so rust had to be shaken off and then Stepanek's eccentric and different style coupled with it being Murray's first match at the altitude of Madrid whereas Stepanek had come through qualifiers made it a struggle. In bith tournaments once Andy has played his way into the tournament he has got better and better.

It's all just classic Andy. I'm surprised anyone's surprised. In early rounds, he's simply not at the races mentally, too many times in comparison to his three better peers

It's why he would never be No.1, too many things bother him too much (courts, crowd, overhead cameras, photographers, opponents playing unexpectedly well, using the female tennis balls etc)

Stans the same, but worse

Don't think Stan has been the same since Kokkgate

legendkillarV2 wrote:Don't think Stan has been the same since Kokkgate

That conjures up unwanted images.

Maybe not...but I also think he's not as likely to peak at the top for a long period vs. Fed, Nad, etc.
He's done well to get 2 slams and suspect he's happy to rest on his laurels and appearance money.

Meanwhile Nadal just took the first set 6-0 vs. Sousa...!

Then true to Nadal form these days Sousa comes back and wins the 2nd...so lord knows who will win this now...

Nadal scrapes through having gone from sublime to ridiculous in under an hour.
Murray wont have much to fear if he watched this match...!

OMG can I come out from behind the sofa
Sure signs Rafa has to play under cover.. I thought we have another Rosol match here !!!!

Wins the third though. The big semi is on nish is in the second semi

Nish wont beat Djoko.
Yes it was nip & tuck with Rafa...Sousa played well (but couldn't sustain it) whilst Rafa went into mediocre gear, spraying FHs like confetti.
Its almost like the 1st set was too easy and it sent Rafa into distraction mode because he lost his rhythm for sure.
I'm sure the prospect of facing Murray will get him refocused though...and on quick Madrid clay its too close to call.

Brighton vs Boro or Murray vs Nadal?

Btw, I didnt realise but they closed the roof early into 2nd set of Rafa's match. This is what changed the dynamic as it became an indoor match at altitude.

Now looking to tomorrow, if Nadal was to beat Murray today (its forecast to be dry but cool at 18c so not a given by any stretch) then tomorrow its meant to rain hard all day due to storms and be just 13c...so an indoor final at altitude in cold conditions...this surely loads the odds further in Djokovic's direction?

lydian wrote:Btw, I didnt realise but they closed the roof early into 2nd set of Rafa's match. This is what changed the dynamic as it became an indoor match at altitude.

Now looking to tomorrow, if Nadal was to beat Murray today (its forecast to be dry but cool at 18c so not a given by any stretch) then tomorrow its meant to rain hard all day due to storms and be just 13c...so an indoor final at altitude in cold conditions...this surely loads the odds further in Djokovic's direction?

If you notice that is what I said in my previous post Lydian... I thought here we go again another Rosol match !!
It was also the timing when they did it he had break point !!
If he has to play with the roof on its goodbye Rafa see you in Rome !!!

The draw for Rome came out.

Fed/Djok/Raf in the same half. What a touch for Murray

Great tourney so far. Kyrgios v. Nishikori was really of the highest order of athleticism and shot making. Nishikori has the most explosive down the line BH on tour right now. He hit a tournament worth of down the line winners on Kyrgios and along with the serve that is what won it for him.

Novak automatic, Milos in his matchup against Novak is averaging 34 percent in their career H2H on second serve points. Wow! 34 percent on your second serve for Raonic that is ridiculous returning.

Can't wait for the Kei v. Nish matchup. I mean Novak is the favorite but I think if there is a clay court out there that favors Kei it is this one. If they get sunshine and a hot day that can help even more. His flat shots really penetrate this quick clay court that plays faster than some of the hardcourts on tour.

Berdych v. Murray was dull and routine. No fault of Murray's he played really well.

Nadal got over the second set hump to run away with it at the end. Good on Sousa though, I took one look at how skinny this guy is and thought he was going to get bagelled or breadsticked. He got run up 6-0 first set and I said here he goes, but he made a comeback. I really didn't think he could adjust to the sheer weight and physicality of playing Nadal on this surface.

One thing I like about Nadal's game now is he is really trusting the backhand and not putting his movement under pressure by running around everything. He always had the CC BH but now he is hitting up the line off that wing better than I have ever seen him.

What happened to his fh down the line yesterday ??... non existent
And he hardly came inside the baseline.. that again bothers me
I was not as impressed as you socal maybe Im "complaining"

Thiem, Kyrgios, Kei and Zverev also in that top half. Would have preferred it to be at the French though! Andy never does much in Rome though so I suspect it will be a different finalist.

Agreed BS, though I hope this draw will give Andy some extra incentive.

Good start for Murray. I am being lured by Brighton...

That will definitely help murray though. He needs a decent run in Rome to keep the number 2 ranking into RG. Particularly he needs to about maych rogers effort, which he now has a major advantage to do

After RG if he is still number 2 then he'll probably keep it till the end of the year, since rogers points are quite back loaded.

Whether Roger can nick the number 2 seed for wimby using thei special system will be an interesting one

temporary21 wrote:That will definitely help murray though. He needs a decent run in Rome to keep the number 2 ranking into RG. Particularly he needs to about maych rogers effort, which he now has a major advantage to do

After RG if he is still number 2 then he'll probably keep it till the end of the year, since rogers points are quite back loaded.

Whether Roger can nick the number 2 seed for wimby using thei special system will be an interesting one

I'd be totally gobsmacked if Murray goes to Wimbledon as No.2. Remember he has to win in Madrid just to protect the No.2 slot now and then has to reach at least the semis at RG just to break even. Sure he could pick up some points in Rome but barring an excellent run there I can't see it being enough to stay at No.2.

Although the hope could come from the fact that Federer was a finalist in Rome last year so he has a lot of points to defend.

Fed will get about a 1200 point gain over Murray through the Wimbledon seeding formula so he's more or less guaranteed to be seeded above Andy I would say.

These two look in good form I would say. Murray takes a 35 shot rally to hold.

Oh that's a lot more than I thought you'd get. Roger reached the final of Rome last year if we recall

I'd expect him to be above Roger come RG. I don't think he'll be 1200 above though... Unless he does the unthinkable

Massive hold from Andy after initially getting distracted by the broken string.

temporary21 wrote:Oh that's a lot more than I thought you'd get.  Roger reached the final of Rome last year if we recall

The only scenario I see Andy holding onto the No.2 seeding is by winning in Madrid, having a great run at Rome and either getting to the Final or winning RG.

Post wimby though he probably holds the real edge to keep it. Roger has 2 GS finals to defend.

By the by. What a hold that was

Has Andy made a first serve in this set? He's hitting it well from the baseline but starting every point behind a second serve will take its toll.

about 35%... Thats gotta be mental

What a way to seal that set for Murray.

His serving has been the opposite of normal. Hes not made many but has done so when it mattered. Usually he misses all the important ones.

That fact gives him the first set. Cna he keep it up this time

Good to see Andy stay mentally tuned in once his serve got broken. Now can he keep this up in the second set?

I get the feeling either Andy wins this in two or Rafa wins in three with a cakewalk of a third set.

Murray trying his best to lose that game but somehow finds enough winners to come through. Bit concerned about his fitness levels though.

Murray breaks to lead 7-5 4-2. Two holds Andy - that is all.

Come on Andy, crush him.

Crown Djokovic the champion as soon as this match finishes. Murray will get demolished in the final.

Yes, but still no one likes Djoko, never will.

Andy got some power today.

Lol Andy - nice choke. Re-focus and take it here otherwise this match is only going one way.

Nope. Not yet

Andy Murray wins 7-5 6-4. Now two wins on clay against Rafa. The damage limitation as far as his ranking goes improves a bit.

Devastatingly poor last game from Rafa. Didn't give Andy a chance to think about throwing the previous game away.

Great result for Andy!

Murray and Fed now level on points.

Murray does win round two though, great clutch serving and some hustle edges it for him.

God I hope these two have a RG match as the deciding rubber, its a good match up