Wimbledon

Time to start concentrating on this one, which marks the start of a very busy period, with two slams, two masters and an Olympics all in the space of just over two months

Draw is out, but in it's early stages. So far;-

1. Novak and Roger are in the same half.
2. Potential Men’s QFs: Djokovic vs Raonic, Federer vs Nishikori, Wawrinka vs Thiem, Murray vs Gasquet
3. Novak could be playing two Brits in the first two rounds

Already looks a harder latter stage for Novak than the French, not so much Fed, but Raonic

Best place right now for information, appears to be surprisingly the Beeb http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/36413774

Let the debating commence!!

Murray has Kyrgios in last 16. Tough draw that.

But Djokovic looks worse - DJOKOVIC'S POSSIBLE PATH 1R J Ward 2R Mannarino 3R Querrey 4R Ferrer QF Raonic SF Federer F Murray

Other notable 1st round draws from BBC- some of these look pretty tasty! Especially Verdasco vs Tomic:

Kyrgios v Stepanek
Monfils v Chardy
Karlovic v Coric
Groth v Nishikori
Thiem v Mayer
Verdasco v Tomic
Isner v Baghdatis

Murrays route (I think)

Broady/Lu/Paire/Kyrgios/Gasquet/Wawrinka/Djokovic

I'd take Murrays draw over Djokovic's.

Jeez. The Brits have had some tough luck, at least in terms of progressing. Ward has novak. Broady has murray. Edmund has mannarino. Evans has struff

Also Kyrgios has stepanek in round 1!

Guest82 wrote:Murrays route (I think)

Broady/Lu/Paire/Kyrgios/Gasquet/Wawrinka/Djokovic

I'd take Murrays draw over Djokovic's.

Agreed. I could see Stan not even making the Semi's as grass not his best surface. Kyrgios is obviously the biggest threat with his serve a real weapon on grass. However, seeing how Murray adapted to Raonic's at Queen's gives me real hope, especially over best of five.

Lord Christobal wrote:

Guest82 wrote:Murrays route (I think)

Broady/Lu/Paire/Kyrgios/Gasquet/Wawrinka/Djokovic

I'd take Murrays draw over Djokovic's.

Agreed. I could see Stan not even making the Semi's as grass not his best surface. Kyrgios is obviously the biggest threat with his serve a real weapon on grass. However,  seeing how Murray adapted to Raonic's at Queen's gives me real hope, especially over best of five.

Others from Stans section that could make the semi-finals - Thiem, Berdych, Zverev, Tomic, Del Potro (plays Wawrinka second round).

Guest82 wrote:

Lord Christobal wrote:

Guest82 wrote:Murrays route (I think)

Broady/Lu/Paire/Kyrgios/Gasquet/Wawrinka/Djokovic

I'd take Murrays draw over Djokovic's.

Agreed. I could see Stan not even making the Semi's as grass not his best surface. Kyrgios is obviously the biggest threat with his serve a real weapon on grass. However,  seeing how Murray adapted to Raonic's at Queen's gives me real hope, especially over best of five.

Others from Stans section that could make the semi-finals - Thiem, Berdych, Zverev, Tomic, Del Potro (plays Wawrinka second round).  

Would be great to see Del boy get back into a bit of form, think he's been sorely missed. His Semi against Djokovic in 2013 was a Wimbledon classic and benefited Murray immeasurably in the final. Maybe a bit early for Zverev although the win against Federer will imbue confidence. Berdych or Thiem the most likely I would guess if not Stan?

Lord Christobal wrote:

Guest82 wrote:

Lord Christobal wrote:

Guest82 wrote:Murrays route (I think)

Broady/Lu/Paire/Kyrgios/Gasquet/Wawrinka/Djokovic

I'd take Murrays draw over Djokovic's.

Agreed. I could see Stan not even making the Semi's as grass not his best surface. Kyrgios is obviously the biggest threat with his serve a real weapon on grass. However,  seeing how Murray adapted to Raonic's at Queen's gives me real hope, especially over best of five.

Others from Stans section that could make the semi-finals - Thiem, Berdych, Zverev, Tomic, Del Potro (plays Wawrinka second round).  

Would be great to see Del boy get back into a bit of form, think he's been sorely missed. His Semi against Djokovic in 2013 was a Wimbledon classic and benefited Murray immeasurably in the final. Maybe a bit early for Zverev although the win against Federer will imbue confidence. Berdych or Thiem the most likely I would guess if not Stan?

Thiem drawn to play Berdych, so the winner of that would have a chance. Thiem has Florian Mayer in the first round...he beat him last week.

Oddly given how he can only really slice his Bh grass might end yo being Del Boys best surface now

Not particularly worried about Kyrgios at Wimby, later on in a slam. There could have been tougher last 16 players to meet. A better performing Berdych, the dangerous Goffin and the more consistent Cilic are far more streetwise and hence dangerous R16 opponents

Very good draw for Murray, but we said that last year at the US Open and I seem to remember that both of his slam wins were seen as harder draws

Can't see anything but a Murray / Novak final. However, another very hot Friday and if Roger has got his mojo back, then he could beat Novak

Note, there is a good chance that the latter stages will be played in increasingly warm weather. Obviously this mean it'll be 6 Celsius with the roof on!!

banbrotam wrote:Not particularly worried about Kyrgios at Wimby, later on in a slam. There could have been tougher last 16 players to meet. A better performing Berdych, the dangerous Goffin and the more consistent Cilic are far more streetwise and hence dangerous R16 opponents

Very good draw for Murray, but we said that last year at the US Open and I seem to remember that both of his slam wins were seen as harder draws

Can't see anything but a Murray / Novak final. However, another very hot Friday and if Roger has got his mojo back, then he could beat Novak

Note, there is a good chance that the latter stages will be played in increasingly warm weather. Obviously this mean it'll be 6 Celsius with the roof on!!

Kyrgios can get hot though and blast anyone off court. He also doesn't care much for reputations.

Berdych, Goffin etc are probably beaten before they step on court against Murray.

Agree though, every slam is a two horse race at the moment. They could meet in every slam final this year...Djokovic could even beat Murray in all four.

Guest82 wrote:Murrays route (I think)

Broady/Lu/Paire/Kyrgios/Gasquet/Wawrinka/Djokovic

I'd take Murrays draw over Djokovic's.

Let's face it, neither of them look particularly daunting

To be honest, I want to see if Fed can make it to the semis, the guy hasn't played more than a few matches in the last couple of months. He could be great or he could be real rusty and need more time, I don't think we will know until he gets against a player who can test him and put him under an acid test. Fed's serve is so good that it should still get him through most of the also rans.

Murray has a nice draw, I don't think Stan is much of a threat on this surface his swings need too much time. Novak I think really doesn't think much about the draw anymore. I think this Murray's best hope of getting Novak in a slam. In away I honestly see him as close to a 50/50. He is more naturally suited to the grass, and the little bit of extra pep his shots get help him to hit through Novak more easily, which Andy can not do as well on the slower surfaces.

Kyrgios is the X factor everybody. Those of you who doubt this kid are in for a surprise, I am telling you right now he will win one of the next three Wimbys, including this one. Barring injury or complete mental midget meltdown, he is a lock at this tournament at some stage in his career. In Marseille he was arming serves at like 2/3 pace and the court was quick guys still couldn't touch him. His compact swings and that flat little slap BH are going to be lethal on the grass. And the Serve, ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous.

I think both Andy and Novak have similarly difficult draws.  Each has a few potential difficult-ish opponents to play - not much between the two.  Looking forward to the tournament - as always, I will be hoping that someone new can snatch the title (well, someone new or Federer).

PS.  A nice little referendum that you guys staged in the run-up to Wimbledon.

What a result for Marcus Willis. World no 775 qualifying for main draw.

Henman Bill wrote:What a result for Marcus Willis. World no 775 qualifying for main draw.

He plays in the Coventry & Warks League Premier Div. We're in Div 5, having only recently joined it. We should get promoted quite easily this year. I'm probably at Div 3 level. I like to think of that as within touching distance of the stars.

I agree about Kyrgios socal.  On raw ability, he is by some distance the most intriguing of the youngsters - more so than Thiem or Zverev or Tomic or any other one.  Especially here at Wimbledon he could do well.

His head is the question mark though.

summerblues wrote:I agree about Kyrgios socal.  On raw ability, he is by some distance the most intriguing of the youngsters - more so than Thiem or Zverev or Tomic or any other one.  Especially here at Wimbledon he could do well.

His head is the question mark though.

Yes but you don't have to be all there to win a slam if you have a lot of talent and especially Wimbeldon. Wimbeldon if you have a huge serve you can play most everyone to at least draw. Well until you face Novak or Murray or in his day Nadal. Safin wasn't all there, Goran wasn't all there, Pat Cash was not all there mentally, Andre at times wasn't all there; I can't see how he doesn't win at least one if not more Wimby's with the specific game that he has. His game is perfect for a fast surface. Yes, he is by some distance the best prospect shot wise and physicality wise we have seen on tour well since the birth of the golden generation.

Zverev, I worry that he might be too tall and as he gets injured frequently. Although I think he is another guy that can be slam winning, also think just like Kyrgios that Thiem is almost a lock at some point to win RG. Thiem is a bit stronger and more professional. I like the crop of talent as whole, and yes Nick is the class of all of them. That being said Thiem strikes me as a guy that can go multiple RGs simply because of the weight of his shot especially off that vicious kick serve its like a corkscrew how it drives into the clay and then blows up off the surface. I see both 1-3 RGs for Thiem and 1-5 possible Wimbys for Nick. The point being that he only has to click for two weeks at some point in the next few years, and I think with the game he has Nick will win one of the next 3 wimbeldons.

PS in regards to mentally, I think Nick does have one thing going for him mentally in that his fire and cockiness gives him some armor in the face of any opponent. I mean the kid could be playing God himself and if Nick is up a break in the fifth he will think that he should serve it out on the almighty himself with no problem. Sometimes there is a certain kind of cocky ahole who is just good at sports and part of the reason he is so good is because he is just such an insufferable jerk and really doesn't give a crap and feels he is better than everyone. Our Nicky has a bit of Connors or Kobe Bryant or maybe Cantona in him. That kind of jerk that is so freakishly talented and knows it but holds the rest of the universe in disdain, this lets the guy kind of be like, "of course I was supposed to win".

summerblues wrote:I think both Andy and Novak have similarly difficult draws.  Each has a few potential difficult-ish opponents to play - not much between the two.  Looking forward to the tournament - as always, I will be hoping that someone new can snatch the title (well, someone new or Federer).

PS.  A nice little referendum that you guys staged in the run-up to Wimbledon.

Really?

Murray's got the best draw possible

Avoids Federer - who may be coming back from injury but has nevertheless beaten Murray here twice - fairly easily

Gets the easiest quarter final seed possible - Gasquet

He should sleep walk to the final with plenty in the tank.

Djokovic clearly has a harder draw - but overall it does look woefully short of real threats. Incredible that Del Po is the youngest slam winner on tour (nearly 28) - and then it's Novak

Tend to side with emancipator really. I'm not sure I agree with Gasquet being the easiest of the QF opponents, particularly on grass, but Djokovic clearly has the hardest QF and SF available on paper in Raonic and Feds, for all the question marks over the latter's form and fitness (Warinka's grass court pedigree hardly suggests he'll be a threat).

Of course, Murray has Kyrgios in R4 which balanced things out a little, but overall Murray's draw is much more favourable than Djokovic IMO.

Kyrgios vs Stepanek in the first could be intriguing, could see an upset there if Stepanek can get under Kyrgios's rather thin skin.

Thiem v Mayer the real pick of the first round. Very tough for Thiem.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Tend to side with emancipator really. I'm not sure I agree with Gasquet being the easiest of the QF opponents, particularly on grass, but Djokovic clearly has the hardest QF and SF available on paper in Raonic and Feds, for all the question marks over the latter's form and fitness (Warinka's grass court pedigree hardly suggests he'll be a threat).

Of course, Murray has Kyrgios in R4 which balanced things out a little, but overall Murray's draw is much more favourable than Djokovic IMO.

Kyrgios vs Stepanek in the first could be intriguing, could see an upset there if Stepanek can get under Kyrgios's rather thin skin.

Gasquet certainly has more grass court pedigree than say Nishikori but of the two I would still consider Nishikori to be a bigger threat to actually beat one of the top guys at a slam. We know Gasquet can't get the job done. Even at 2 sets and 5-0 I'd expect him to amazingly run out of gas and get reeled in.

Kyrgios could be a banana skin but I think Murray is too canny on grass and returns too well to get blown off court by him - but it's possible.

Yep, Mayer is a really tough opener.

emancipator wrote:

summerblues wrote:I think both Andy and Novak have similarly difficult draws.  Each has a few potential difficult-ish opponents to play - not much between the two.  Looking forward to the tournament - as always, I will be hoping that someone new can snatch the title (well, someone new or Federer).

PS.  A nice little referendum that you guys staged in the run-up to Wimbledon.

Really?

Murray's got the best draw possible

Avoids Federer - who may be coming back from injury but has nevertheless beaten Murray here twice - fairly easily

Gets the easiest quarter final seed possible - Gasquet

He should sleep walk to the final with plenty in the tank.

Djokovic clearly has a harder draw - but overall it does look woefully short of real threats. Incredible that Del Po is the youngest slam winner on tour (nearly 28) - and then it's Novak

Forgot about Cilic

emancipator wrote:

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Tend to side with emancipator really. I'm not sure I agree with Gasquet being the easiest of the QF opponents, particularly on grass, but Djokovic clearly has the hardest QF and SF available on paper in Raonic and Feds, for all the question marks over the latter's form and fitness (Warinka's grass court pedigree hardly suggests he'll be a threat).

Of course, Murray has Kyrgios in R4 which balanced things out a little, but overall Murray's draw is much more favourable than Djokovic IMO.

Kyrgios vs Stepanek in the first could be intriguing, could see an upset there if Stepanek can get under Kyrgios's rather thin skin.

Gasquet certainly has more grass court pedigree than say Nishikori but of the two I would still consider Nishikori to be a bigger threat to actually beat one of the top guys at a slam. We know Gasquet can't get the job done. Even at 2 sets and 5-0 I'd expect him to amazingly run out of gas and get reeled in.

Kyrgios could be a banana skin but I think Murray is too canny on grass and returns too well to get blown off court by him - but it's possible.

Yep, Mayer is a really tough opener.

TBH of the QF opponents, the only player to whom I'd give a decent chance of beating Murray on grass is Raonic, hence why I'm delighted to see him in Djokovic's quarter. Even Raonic, I'd expect Murray to beat 8 times out of 10 or so, though that may change if Raonic continues to improve. His biggest problem for me will be keeping that attacking mindset he displayed for the first half of the Queens final once his serve starts getting broken down, as inevitably will happen against Murray or Djokovic. In the Queens final as soon as he dropped serve once - to a brilliant return - his chip-and-charge tactic rather vanished, and he went back to "old Raonic", hanging deep in his BH corner hoping to bring his FH into play , but from too far back to be a threat to Murray.

Agreed on Kyrgios, think Murray has too much nous, and will return too many serves. Though actually I'd give Stepanek a decent chance in R1 vs Kyrgios, for two main reasons. Firstly, Stepanek himself returns serve very well, and also I think Stepanek is the exact sort of player who'll get right under Kyrgios's skin.

Overall though, you'd be a brave man to bet against another Murray-Djokovic final. This of course would be their fourth in a row in big events (I think?) and third in slams. Not exactly all that exciting, is it?

Actually find the women's tournament a more intriguing proposition this year. Serena the favourite, but hasn't won any of the last three slams. Cracks starting to appear?

MfC

On paper, Djoko v Murray looks a racing certainty. However, of course things often don't turn out as expected. I just have a feeling that Novak's due a slip up, and that Wimbledon week 1 (especially in cool, damp and windy conditions) could be the place for it to happen.

As for the women's tournament, I agree that Serena is starting to show signs of her age, and while the fast courts should give her lots of cheap points on serve, there is a vulnerability there that wasn't a few years ago. A favourite I would probably bet against...

It's so refreshing in this era of baseline bashers to watch Karlovic beat his countryman Coric 7-6,7-6,6-4 with serve and volley tennis....

Djokovic v. Ward showed that Novak was very rusty. But I think by the time he gets to players that can knock him out he will work his way into his typical form. I thought Gulbis' FH was bad but Ward's is awful and makes the Gulbis FH look good.

Murray has the easier draw that is for sure.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:What a result for Marcus Willis. World no 775 qualifying for main draw.

He plays in the Coventry & Warks League Premier Div. We're in Div 5, having only recently joined it. We should get promoted quite easily this year. I'm probably at Div 3 level. I like to think of that as within touching distance of the stars.

Interesting, I must admit, when I heard world no 775 Brit through to final round of qualifying I doubted he would win that, let alone a match in the main draw.

Stepanek has just got the third set against Kyrgios after a long TB, saving a couple of match points (including one on the Kyrgios serve). I think Kyrgios served for the match too.

Kyrgios with an easy win in the 4th though - a decent result as Stepanek is a tricky old customer.

Stan well in control now against Fritz, having won a TB 1st set, took the second 6-1.

Got to feel a bit for Giraldo and Muller - 11 all in the 5th and scheduled as second on court 11. Waiting for Paire and Skugor to play a deciding set...

Amazingly quiet on here though - perhaps the shock of the Brexit vote and England's abject failure yesterday...

Murray with a solid opening set 6-2. Don't feel like Broady has any weapons to really hurt Murray with based on that evidence.

Fritz had nicked the third set on a TB, but dropped serve immediately at the start of the fourth.

Meanwhile, Skugor was serving for the match at 5-4 in the fifth against Paire, but managed to get broken from 40-0 up (had four MPs in total), and Paire now leads 6-5.

Fritz broken again, and that is surely that.

Did well to force two TB sets, winning one of them, but immediately after both TBs suffered a bad drop in his level. Will learn from this.

Poor game from Broady to get broken there, couple of loose FHs and a DF. Murray serving well, and in cruise control at 6-2 4-1.

Fritz having staved off BPs for 0-5 has got one of the breaks back. He trails 3-4, Wawrinka still with one break.

Wawrinka's break is enough as he sees it out 6-4.

Paire has come through 10-8 in the fifth, his opponent will be kicking himself for losing that.

Murray serving for the second set at 5-3.

Murray serves it out with little fuss to 15, good aggressive serving and getting the first strike in with his FH. Broady has stepped it up in the last 15 minutes or so to be fair.

Good win for Kyrgios. Thought Steps might annoy him. A day devoid of upsets so far.

Murray somewhat sleep-walking in this third set, though he did wake up when he faced 15-40 on his serve, rattling off four good points to see off the danger. He's serving for it now at 5-4.

Over on court one, Konta has blown Puig off the court in a fine set of tennis 6-1.

Murray serves it out to 30. Broady will be left wondering if he could have had more of an impact by bringing the more aggressive brand of tennis he played in the third set earlier in the match.

Krygios seemed to enjoy that match with Stepenak, smiling, playing to the crowd ...

Well done to wild card Tara Moore ranked two hundred odd for getting through to the second round.

Going back to the Nole vs Murray draw comparison - I really do not see them as that different difficulty-wise.

Neither of them has any extraordinary danger prior to R16, and from then on:

Nole:
R16:  Ferrer (aka nobody)
QF: Raonic
SF: Federer/Cilic/Nishi

Andy:
R16: Kyrgios
QF: Gasquet/Tsonga
SF: Wawrinka/Berdych/Thiem

I would say:

R16 miles more difficult for Andy.  Maybe it is that I rate Kyrgios more than most of you but I think he is one of a handful of players who could conceivably take out Andy or Nole.

QF:  More difficult for Nole, I agree with that.  Raonic one of the best players outside Nole/Andy this year.  But if Tsonga could make the QF, he might be somewhat competitive too.

SF:  Unlike apparently most of you, I see this as a toss-up, or possibly even a little bit harder on Andy's side.  The main reason is I just do not see Federer being able to play well - he barely played this year, he did not play that great in the warm-up tourneys, and he is one year older than last year.  Nishi never does well at Wimbledon so I probably see Cilic as the biggest threat there, but that is not too much for a SF.  I think either Stan or Berdych could be more difficult opponents, and Thiem perhaps also (though I did not expect a month ago I would be saying this about Thiem on grass).

Pretty impressive from Willis.  Will have experience of a lifetime playing Fed tomorrow on Centre Court.

And JHM is only a level or two below that.

summerblues wrote: ...
Nole:
R16:  Ferrer (aka nobody) ...

Andy:
R16: Kyrgios ...
I would say:

R16 miles more difficult for Andy.  Maybe it is that I rate Kyrgios more than most of you but I think he is one of a handful of players who could conceivably take out Andy or Nole. ...

Absolutely agree.  Kyrgios is a likely future Wimbledon champion.  Ferrer is not.  

Kyrgios is on the rise, Ferrer is on the fall.

Kyrgios is on the threshold of something big, Ferrer is on the precipice of a fall.  

Krygios has weapons.  Ferrer doesn't have weapons.

Kyrgios at Wimbledon: 2014 QF, 2015 4R and he is currently at his highest ranking (18).

Istomin leads the head-to-head with Almagro 5-0. What a strange stat that is. Almagro has won 1 set out of 11 completed.

I went to Wimbledon on Monday, the noise for Willis was something else.