Brexit

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 07 Nov 2018, 5:04 pm

First topic message reminder :

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
Duty281 wrote:He doesn't have to 'prove his innocence', that's not how the justice system in this country works.

But it's how the world intends it to work.................... it's probably called neo-socialism - ooh, sex-Y!.
Anti establishment thought crimes to be punishable by no trial and a bullet down some cavernous prison complex dedicated to 're-education' of political dissidents.

Sex crimes as well? I don't see many people one here leaping to Weinstein's defence.
Yep. I would, until and unless he's convicted. Otherwise it's just hearsay and rumour.

So would Arron Banks

Meaning?

by CaledonianCraig Tue 11 Dec 2018, 7:51 pm

I find myself asking what is/was the point of Brexit? And is there any real point in agreeing to anything?

Brexit was touted at the time as taking back control of trade deals, its borders and its laws. Those are all not possible under May's deal or under ANY deal that does not involve exiting with a hard border in Northern Ireland. Therefore what is the point of any Brexit which will be totally unrecognisable to what it was originally painted as. It is akin to a government bringing back the death penalty for murderers but then never carrying it out and merely giving out lengthy jail terms.

by **superflyweight** Tue 11 Dec 2018, 9:22 pm

Autoerotic asphyxiation doesn't count as gainful employment, Duty.

by Duty281 Tue 11 Dec 2018, 9:56 pm

superflyweight wrote:Autoerotic asphyxiation doesn't count as gainful employment, Duty.

I'll cede to your experience with such matters on that one...

by alfie Wed 12 Dec 2018, 11:48 am

What is the matter with all these politicians ? Craig has summed it up , as I would have thought was clear two years ago ...There is no realistic solution to the Irish Border problem ; the "Norway plus " option might be workable but probably won't satisfy anyone ; and right now the options are no deal (with all the dreadful consequences , which may be worked through in time but will surely impact all of you for the next few years an any case) , Teresa May's despised deal , or a (sensible in my view but I've been offshore for too long to count) decision to abandon the whole silly idea...and I imagine the much more involved younger generation would ensure that a second referendum would produce the latter result.

Or up you could keep kicking it all around for the next couple of years while the country sinks into disarray for want of energy to deal with the serious problems of he modern world....

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 1:16 pm

alfie wrote:What is the matter with all these politicians ? Craig has summed it up , as I would have thought was clear two years ago ...There is no realistic solution to the Irish Border problem ; the "Norway plus " option might be workable but probably won't satisfy anyone ; and right now the options are no deal (with all the dreadful consequences , which may be worked through in time but will surely impact all of you for the next few years an any case) , Teresa May's despised deal , or a (sensible in my view but I've been offshore for too long to count) decision to abandon the whole silly idea...and I imagine the much more involved younger generation would ensure that a second referendum would produce the latter result.

Or up you could keep kicking it all around for the next couple of years while the country sinks into disarray for want of energy to deal with the serious problems of he modern world....

Don't disagree with much of that. What's the matter with them? They're modern politicians - minnows, the lot of them, and obsessed with focus-group politics, how to get back in at the next GE in order to maintain their salaries and lifestyles and climbing the political ladder for its own ends and/or their post-political consultancy careers. You're far better off where you are!

by MrInvisible Wed 12 Dec 2018, 1:38 pm

Surely the Tory Brexiteers' triggering vote of no confidence will backfire, as I understand it, May will be safe from subsequent confidence ballots in her party for another 12 months if (as looks likely) she survives it.

What is becoming clear to me though, is that regardless of whether you are a Remainer or Leaver, the current uncertainty with the clock running down quickly before the March 29th Article 50 deadline is starting to have a real impact on the economy. We therefore need to get Article 50 deadine extended as soon as possible to stop us falling into a full-blown recession.

by Duty281 Wed 12 Dec 2018, 1:53 pm

MrInvisible wrote:What is becoming clear to me though, is that regardless of whether you are a Remainer or Leaver, the current uncertainty with the clock running down quickly before the March 29th Article 50 deadline is starting to have a real impact on the economy. We therefore need to get Article 50 deadine extended as soon as possible to stop us falling into a full-blown recession.

We need to end this uncertainty by actually leaving, not by spending another two years dithering and negotiating with the incorrigible institution that the EU so obviously is.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 2:29 pm

Needs to be extended and a GE called. The country is a mess due to this shambolic idiocy.

See the EU have made a big trade deal with Japan. Imagine being part of that...

by CaledonianCraig Wed 12 Dec 2018, 2:30 pm

alfie wrote:What is the matter with all these politicians ? Craig has summed it up , as I would have thought was clear two years ago ...There is no realistic solution to the Irish Border problem ; the "Norway plus " option might be workable but probably won't satisfy anyone ; and right now the options are no deal (with all the dreadful consequences , which may be worked through in time but will surely impact all of you for the next few years an any case) , Teresa May's despised deal , or a (sensible in my view but I've been offshore for too long to count) decision to abandon the whole silly idea...and I imagine the much more involved younger generation would ensure that a second referendum would produce the latter result.

Or up you could keep kicking it all around for the next couple of years while the country sinks into disarray for want of energy to deal with the serious problems of he modern world....

Well there are options really but as far as I can see the heart is not really in it enough to make it happen.

For a real true Brexit to happen the Northern Ireland/Rebublic border issue needs rectifying. That is the chief stumbling block. Northern Ireland and the Republic's Good Friday agreement perhaps needs renegotiating and tweaking. If nothing is done on that front then a Hard Brexit is the only real option left but in any case what has happened since the original vote is too much to think people still want to leave. Therefore I'd have a People's Vote with three options:-

1 May's deal
2 Hard Brexit
3 Remain in the EU

As things stand right now I think a No Deal Brexit is becoming more certain with each day that passes.

by **JuliusHMarx** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 2:39 pm

Quite a number of people pointed out that the whole thing would be a shambles. They were labelled as part of 'Project Fear'. Thank goodness we were proved wrong and it's all gone smoothly.

by TRUSSMAN66 Wed 12 Dec 2018, 3:43 pm

The big problem was putting she would be leaving the CU and SM in her manifesto....Telling everyone No deal was a Bad deal and then waiting till the last minute to say she was only joking..

The backstop really is a distraction and always has been.

by **JuliusHMarx** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 3:53 pm

Two years ago the Tories voted for their leader, now they want another vote? Surely that's anti-democratic?

by TRUSSMAN66 Wed 12 Dec 2018, 3:55 pm

It was a coronation 2 years ago....Leadsom quit.

by **superflyweight** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 4:18 pm

Duty281 wrote:
MrInvisible wrote:What is becoming clear to me though, is that regardless of whether you are a Remainer or Leaver, the current uncertainty with the clock running down quickly before the March 29th Article 50 deadline is starting to have a real impact on the economy. We therefore need to get Article 50 deadine extended as soon as possible to stop us falling into a full-blown recession.

We need to end this uncertainty by actually leaving, not by spending another two years dithering and negotiating with the incorrigible institution that the EU so obviously is.

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 4:51 pm

Duty281 wrote:
MrInvisible wrote:What is becoming clear to me though, is that regardless of whether you are a Remainer or Leaver, the current uncertainty with the clock running down quickly before the March 29th Article 50 deadline is starting to have a real impact on the economy. We therefore need to get Article 50 deadine extended as soon as possible to stop us falling into a full-blown recession.

We need to end this uncertainty by actually leaving, not by spending another two years dithering and negotiating with the incorrigible institution that the EU so obviously is.

Pretty sure it was us that were dithering and not negotiating for most of this period. Entirely our fault we're in this mess.

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 4:53 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Needs to be extended and a GE called. The country is a mess due to this shambolic idiocy.

See the EU have made a big trade deal with Japan. Imagine being part of that...

Just remember what an excellent system our FPTP system is eh? Our politics is FUBAR - two increasingly extreme main parties and FA in-between. Millions feel rightly disenfranchised. Might as well vote Monster Raving Loony...

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 4:55 pm

superflyweight wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
MrInvisible wrote:What is becoming clear to me though, is that regardless of whether you are a Remainer or Leaver, the current uncertainty with the clock running down quickly before the March 29th Article 50 deadline is starting to have a real impact on the economy. We therefore need to get Article 50 deadine extended as soon as possible to stop us falling into a full-blown recession.

We need to end this uncertainty by actually leaving, not by spending another two years dithering and negotiating with the incorrigible institution that the EU so obviously is.

by Luckless Pedestrian Wed 12 Dec 2018, 5:05 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Needs to be extended and a GE called. The country is a mess due to this shambolic idiocy.

See the EU have made a big trade deal with Japan. Imagine being part of that...

That was the B-side to 'Strong and Stable'. Should've got more air time.

by Duty281 Wed 12 Dec 2018, 5:09 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:See the EU have made a big trade deal with Japan. Imagine being part of that...

That would be the same Japan that has pledged to replicate this deal for the UK?

Bilateral trade deals are a thing, imagine that...

by Duty281 Wed 12 Dec 2018, 5:11 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:Two years ago the Tories voted for their leader, now they want another vote? Surely that's anti-democratic?

No, because they actually implemented the outcome of their leadership election.

by **JuliusHMarx** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 5:24 pm

May's deal implements Brexit (according to the referendum question) - so why are Brexiteers against it? It is what they voted for in the referendum.

by Fernando Wed 12 Dec 2018, 9:14 pm

Theresa wins 200-117

by **JuliusHMarx** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 9:55 pm

Apparently winning 63% of the vote means that the people* have spoken and they want her out. Thank goodness it wasn't only 52%

Tory MPs

by CaledonianCraig Wed 12 Dec 2018, 10:02 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:May's deal implements Brexit (according to the referendum question) - so why are Brexiteers against it? It is what they voted for in the referendum.

Does it? It does not allow the UK to take back control of laws. It does not allow freedom to negotiate trade deals with the US etc. It leaves them connected with the EU and not allowed out unless the EU agrees.

by **JuliusHMarx** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 10:24 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:May's deal implements Brexit (according to the referendum question) - so why are Brexiteers against it? It is what they voted for in the referendum.

Does it? It does not allow the UK to take back control of laws. It does not allow freedom to negotiate trade deals with the US etc. It leaves them connected with the EU and not allowed out unless the EU agrees.

Perhaps the referendum should have been more specific then. No use Brexiteers complaining after the fact about what it was supposed to mean, according to them. I'm pretty sure that with May's deal we will leave the EU - we certainly won't be in the EU - which is exactly what the referendum question was based on. It didn't mention how we might or might not be connected to them based on an at-the-time unspecified withdrawal agreement.

It's OK to complain about the Tories not fulfilling their manifesto - but hey, vote them out at the next GE - that's how our system works.

by CaledonianCraig Wed 12 Dec 2018, 11:04 pm

May herself underlined Brexit talking about laws, trade deals and borders. Her deal contravenes all of those. Her deal will not get through Westminster so what is the next step? That is now the question.

This is a Tory problem all of their own making. They refused to involve other parties a say in discussions. They bickered amongst themselves throughout. They watched collectively as May stumbled through the process. They then trigger this leadership issue at the 11th hour. Utter shambles does not do it justice.

by **JuliusHMarx** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 11:12 pm

Yeah, it's pathetic. Can't see a way out that doesn't have a huge negative impact on the UK.

by **Hero** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 11:17 pm

If only a large number of experts warned us before the vote that it would be a total shambles.

by Duty281 Wed 12 Dec 2018, 11:33 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:May herself underlined Brexit talking about laws, trade deals and borders. Her deal contravenes all of those. Her deal will not get through Westminster so what is the next step? That is now the question.

May will try to negotiate again. She will fail. A deal very similar to the one just aborted will go through Parliament in January. It will be rejected. The UK will leave with 'no deal'. May then resigns.

by **Hero** Wed 12 Dec 2018, 11:39 pm

It'll go to parliament before the deadline and they'll vote for anything but a no deal.

by Samo Thu 13 Dec 2018, 3:21 am

Got to admire Dutys belief that No Deal will still happen. Its now Mays deal or No Brexit. Parliament will never let No Deal happen, especially now that the ERG are a busted flush.

by **Hero** Thu 13 Dec 2018, 7:40 am

TBF to him as it stands it will, there does still have to be a vote to change the current course of action and whilst individual MPs may be remain or soft Brexit etc if their constituency voted leave and they then vote to delay or reverse that decision they're gonna get some rather disgruntled locals. I do though think enough MPs will have the sense to at least delay it.

by TRUSSMAN66 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 7:43 am

What a terrible result for the Tories...37% against May isn't enough to topple her and it isn't a big enough victory for May to get a boost..

The wounded PM crawls on..

by **navyblueshorts** Thu 13 Dec 2018, 8:32 am

Samo wrote:Got to admire Dutys belief that No Deal will still happen. Its now Mays deal or No Brexit. Parliament will never let No Deal happen, especially now that the ERG are a busted flush.

To be fair, Duty was correct in predicting the referendum outcome, when most got it badly wrong.

by Duty281 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 9:28 am

Samo wrote:Got to admire Dutys belief that No Deal will still happen. Its now Mays deal or No Brexit. Parliament will never let No Deal happen, especially now that the ERG are a busted flush.

Your belief that 'no Brexit' is a viable option from here is very cute but, also, completely groundless.

Come March 29th, it's about a 75% chance that we leave with 'No Deal', 15% that we extend Article 50 (the possibility of a second referendum emanates from here), 5% that May's deal gets voted through, and 5% that we crowbar our way back into EFTA for the so-called 'Norway' option.

If you seriously think 'no Brexit' is a realistic possibility, get yourself down to Betfair. 'UK revokes Article 50 before 30-03-2019 and ends Brexit' - currently 5/1.

by **JuliusHMarx** Thu 13 Dec 2018, 9:42 am

What are the odds on No Deal?

by Duty281 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 9:54 am

Not specifically offered, as far as I can see. But we have 4/5 for no second referendum by the end of 2019, 4/9 that the withdrawal agreement is not approved, and 1/10 that the UK doesn't revoke Article 50 and carries on with Brexit by the end of March.

by **JuliusHMarx** Thu 13 Dec 2018, 10:01 am

Nearly evens for a second referendum?

by Duty281 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 10:13 am

Yes, evens for a second referendum (before the end of 2019) with William Hill/Betfair/Paddy Power. Bit longer with other bookmakers.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit/2nd-eu-referendum

by **JuliusHMarx** Thu 13 Dec 2018, 10:14 am

Not such a long shot then.

by Duty281 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 11:09 am

Not with the bookmakers, no. But in reality, a second referendum is highly unlikely.

It would require the delaying of Article 50, something both the EU and the UK Parliament have to agree to, followed by a hell of a lot of work in Parliament to get the second referendum passed and into law. It took nearly seven months to get the 2016 referendum from the 1st reading to Royal Assent, and that was with a governing political party having received a mandate to deliver said referendum. And on top of those seven months, we had a two month official campaign period.

It's difficult to see another year being spent on another referendum when: 1) there's very little appetite for another referendum and 2) it will likely deliver the same result as the last one.

by **JuliusHMarx** Thu 13 Dec 2018, 11:12 am

You quote the bookmakers to support a position you agree with and ignore them on a position you don't agree with. Careful, or you'll be thrown off the university debating team.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu 13 Dec 2018, 11:21 am

Duty281 wrote:Not with the bookmakers, no. But in reality, a second referendum is highly unlikely.

It would require the delaying of Article 50, something both the EU and the UK Parliament have to agree to, followed by a hell of a lot of work in Parliament to get the second referendum passed and into law. It took nearly seven months to get the 2016 referendum from the 1st reading to Royal Assent, and that was with a governing political party having received a mandate to deliver said referendum. And on top of those seven months, we had a two month official campaign period.

It's difficult to see another year being spent on another referendum when: 1) there's very little appetite for another referendum and 2) it will likely deliver the same result as the last one.

Has there been polling to indicate that there's very little appetite for another referendum? Genuine question.

by Duty281 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 11:27 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:You quote the bookmakers to support a position you agree with

No I didn't, I just told Samo to get on the 5/1 if he seriously thinks 'no Brexit' is a possibility. Bookmakers are frequently wrong. One reason for supporting a second referendum (minor one, granted) is that the bookmakers will inevitably offer 'Leave' at another delicious price, just like last time, and another bundle can be made on it.

by Duty281 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 11:35 am

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Not with the bookmakers, no. But in reality, a second referendum is highly unlikely.

It would require the delaying of Article 50, something both the EU and the UK Parliament have to agree to, followed by a hell of a lot of work in Parliament to get the second referendum passed and into law. It took nearly seven months to get the 2016 referendum from the 1st reading to Royal Assent, and that was with a governing political party having received a mandate to deliver said referendum. And on top of those seven months, we had a two month official campaign period.

It's difficult to see another year being spent on another referendum when: 1) there's very little appetite for another referendum and 2) it will likely deliver the same result as the last one.

Has there been polling to indicate that there's very little appetite for another referendum? Genuine question.

Polling's a little difficult on this one. Comres had it 50% for no second referendum versus 40% for yes a second referendum, with the options proposed being the classic 'Leave' or 'Remain'. Yougov had a majority for 'yes' to a second referendum, but this was purely on the terms of the deal.

by **Hero** Thu 13 Dec 2018, 11:39 am

Yougov also have No Deal being 3rd in a 3 horse race as the preferred option amongst the population.

Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8

Remain 46.2
Deal 27.1
No Deal 26.7

by CaledonianCraig Thu 13 Dec 2018, 1:54 pm

I am presuming if there was a No Deal Brexit that the Republic of Ireland would be impellEd to put up border checks on the Northern Irish border by the EU?

by Samo Thu 13 Dec 2018, 2:08 pm

Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:You quote the bookmakers to support a position you agree with

No I didn't, I just told Samo to get on the 5/1 if he seriously thinks 'no Brexit' is a possibility. Bookmakers are frequently wrong. One reason for supporting a second referendum (minor one, granted) is that the bookmakers will inevitably offer 'Leave' at another delicious price, just like last time, and another bundle can be made on it.

I never said Brexit wouldnt happen, I said No Deal wont happen, and Im quite confident in that regard, shame the bookies are pricing it up eh? If Brexit is indeed the will of the people then you should have no problem going to the polls a second time to further reinforce that idea. Whats the worst that could happen?

by Duty281 Thu 13 Dec 2018, 2:38 pm

Samo wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:You quote the bookmakers to support a position you agree with

No I didn't, I just told Samo to get on the 5/1 if he seriously thinks 'no Brexit' is a possibility. Bookmakers are frequently wrong. One reason for supporting a second referendum (minor one, granted) is that the bookmakers will inevitably offer 'Leave' at another delicious price, just like last time, and another bundle can be made on it.

I never said Brexit wouldnt happen, I said No Deal wont happen, and Im quite confident in that regard, shame the bookies are pricing it up eh? If Brexit is indeed the will of the people then you should have no problem going to the polls a second time to further reinforce that idea. Whats the worst that could happen?

Well you said it's either 'May's deal or no Brexit' which surely makes the 5/1 on the latter a very flattering and favourable option.

by CaledonianCraig Thu 13 Dec 2018, 2:52 pm

Duty281 wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:May herself underlined Brexit talking about laws, trade deals and borders. Her deal contravenes all of those. Her deal will not get through Westminster so what is the next step? That is now the question.

May will try to negotiate again. She will fail. A deal very similar to the one just aborted will go through Parliament in January. It will be rejected. The UK will leave with 'no deal'. May then resigns.

I'd say that is the most likely scenario. But after May's resignation I'd say the new leader would pull Article 50 for a time whilst they look to start afresh with a whole new angle on discussions. If Article 50 is pulled I cannot see that the EU would insist on sticking with the old deal say 6 or 12 months down the line.

by Sponsored content