The Ashes - official thread

[Gooseberry]

First topic message reminder :

SR that's not how mental fatigue works.
Also Stokes had a long break last year ...which he came back from err ...mentaly fatigued. Buttler and Bairstow haven't had that luxury.

But anyway it's not a case of "attitude" , ask Trott and Trescothick.

[robbo277]

Last 21 deliveries have seen 2 wickets and just 1 run. Archer's been on all morning, you feel Root wants to keep Archer on to get at Smith early with the extra pace, but at the moment the batsmen are at the wrong end.

It's a tough decision. You can keep Archer on for an extra couple of overs and try and get Smith early, but reduce his effectiveness later. But if he does get Smith early, then you've probably got a lot fewer overs to bowl over the day anyway.

The rain may give them all a break soon anyway.

[alfie]

2/30 makes that England's hour...but don't like the look of the knock on the thumb for Jonny just then ? Gloves back on so hopefully OK.

Hope Archer can get his line right to Smith now..he can't be bowling much longer in this spell. Though Broad should enjoy that end when he takes over...

[alfie]

Yeah I think Bancroft can count himself a little unlucky there - looked high to me on first viewing

Looks like everyone thought it was missing Except the umpire...

Bancroft was unlucky that Joel Wilson was in the TV room...he'd never have been game to give it out on the field after the last match !

[robbo277]

Yeah I think Bancroft can count himself a little unlucky there - looked high to me on first viewing

Looks like everyone thought it was missing    Except the umpire...

Bancroft was unlucky that Joel Wilson was in the TV room...he'd never have been game to give it out on the field after the last match !

Archer looked pretty convinced. Maybe he just really wanted it?

Archer off, Broad back on. Get Smith early and England are favourites.

[Duty281]

Smith already looking ominously comfortable and 'playing' those extravagant leaves.

[alfie]

Typical Smith start...leaves outside off , pads away induckers , works straight balls off his pads..

Keep at the fourth stump line , please. He just might nibble one...but you'll never hit his leg stump.

[Duty281]

Dreadful decision. Thank the Lord for DRS etc.

England firmly on top.

[compelling and rich]

aleem at it again

[Pal Joey]

So plumb. What was Dar thinking? Surely he didn't hear an edge.

[alfie]

Head gone ! Beautiful bowling by Broad.

How on earth did Dar not give that live ? So absolutely dead...easy decision to review !

[Steffan]

The Empire strikes back. I did actually think this would happen in the second test. Disaster so far

[alfie]

So plumb. What was Dar thinking? Surely he didn't hear an edge.

Maybe Dar has also lost confidence after Edgbaston ? Don't know why you wouldn't give that .( Even if you feared missing a possible inside edge it wouldn't matter as Australia have reviews and would obviously overturn a decision in that case).
Give him benefit of doubt this time ...he's been a decent umpire over the years. But he's having a rough series so far.

[robbo277]

Just before the Head wicket, Bet365 had both England and Australia at 4s, with the weather most likely to win at 8/15. Shows how poised this game is.

Vaughan said we'd need 5 this session at the start of play and we're on 3 with half an hour to go. I'd count Smith as 2 to be honest, and if we can get him OR Wade and Paine we'll be in a good place.

With the whole first day washed out, Australia have a follow on target of 109, which is probably too ambitious. 158ao and a lead of 100 would give us a chance of forcing a result.

[Gooseberry]

I see Smiths still in.

Oh well.

[alfie]

Stokes on...good first ball.

I'd have wanted one more over from Woakes , but if he's going to bowl thereabouts I'm happy enough with the change...

Three good balls. Good start.

[Duty281]

Until that over by Stokes, it's been far too easy for Smith to just settle in. Just feels like England are overthinking and trying to be too clever.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Wade given out LBW, overturned on review off Stokes. Thought it looked pretty good live, just pitched outside the line of leg stump, gah!

[Soul Requiem]

The LBW laws seem outdated now with how the fielding regulations are, leg theory isn't possible to the extent it used to be.

[compelling and rich]

if it does rain the stop start nature may well help us, always feel like you need to get smith early. as when he's set theres no budging him. we may well have a few attempts at smith fairly "new" to the crease

[alfie]

Wade given out LBW, overturned on review off Stokes. Thought it looked pretty good live, just pitched outside the line of leg stump, gah!

Yeah I liked it at first...was afraid it might be just outside leg but was clearer than I'd thought. Stokes has opened up well today...

Would love one of these before lunch.

But no...lunch five balls early. Good session for England

[alfie]

if it does rain the stop start nature may well help us, always feel like you need to get smith early. as when he's set theres no budging him. we may well have a few attempts at smith fairly "new" to the crease

Secret weapon Jack Leach ? Aah...get the other ten out !

[Duty281]

Good session for England, though the first half-hour was abysmal.

Doubt we'll see much more play today with the rain really set in. Still got 190 overs or so left in the test, even if we get completely rained off for the rest of today, so I'm still confident of a result.

[alfie]

Thought the weather today wasn't supposed to kick in until much later... Damn nuisance ; game getting rather interesting.

Can't see a result if the whole day is a wash out. More rain Sunday , is it not ?

[Duty281]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2638768

Sunday should be 'reet.

[alfie]

Strauss making a good point re: Buttler and his lack of form on Sky - last summer when he came into the side, he was being proactive, a lot of walking at the bowler getting them to bowl into his areas - all dismissals this series he's been stuck on the crease.

Something to keep an eye on

Going back to this... Couple of points : firstly , last year Buttler was installed rather oddly at seven as a specialist bat...batting five against Australia is a bit harder. And probably fair to say he enjoyed a bit of early good fortune in a few of those innings. Nevertheless I do think he had improved his red ball batting to a huge degree over the last year or so and frankly expected him to be doing better than this.

More to the point : this current problem looks to be largely mental. If it is true that Jos actively sought to be excused from the Ireland Test , and then was a bit hesitant about playing in this one , then it is clear he is really feeling the after effects of the very emotional World Cup - and has been honest enough to admit it. You can see why they didn't want to rest him given all their difficulties in finding batters fit for purpose but I suppose there was a case for giving him a spell ?
Hopefully he will get it all together over these next few days : I am not totally convinced he is destined for a long career as a top order bat but after his development last year I'd not want to give up on him just yet. A good second innings here might solve a lot of problems...for him and England.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

The one positive of the rain break - this Sangakkara masterclass on wicket keeping.

[alfie]

The one positive of the rain break - this Sangakkara masterclass on wicket keeping.

Ha. Here we are being treated to reruns of the 5-0 2013/14 Ashes


I'm off watching old movies ...

[Duty281]

Australia 6/1 (again) to win the test = fantastic value. Presuming the weather really does remain clear for Saturday+Sunday, we've got about 185 overs left, once you take into account the changeover(s) of innings.

If Australia can bat here for another 50-60 overs, which depends mostly on Steve Smith, they will be around England's 1st innings total. Australia will then have to bowl England out inside 65 overs, which is more than feasible for a 3rd innings effort, and will leave them chasing somewhere in the 160-225 region (unless England indulge in total calamity with the bat) with around 60-70 overs left. That's my...er...roadmap for Australian success.

It does depend almost entirely on another Steve Smith special in this first innings. England are, of course, entirely welcome to knock over the rest of these Aussie wickets tomorrow morning!

[LondonTiger]

Thought the weather today wasn't supposed to kick in until much later...  Damn nuisance ; game getting rather interesting.

Can't see a result if the whole day is a wash out. More rain Sunday , is it not ?

Forecast I saw showed the rain settling in around lunch and staying for the day.

[Gooseberry]

Thought the weather today wasn't supposed to kick in until much later...  Damn nuisance ; game getting rather interesting.

Can't see a result if the whole day is a wash out. More rain Sunday , is it not ?

Forecast I saw showed the rain settling in around lunch and staying for the day.

BBC one currently says very low chance of rain at lords for saturday and sunday.

It largely seems to be down to Smith decide if England do really have a shot of pulling this game and series back

[LondonTiger]

Sorry that was the forecast I saw for Today, just before play started. Tomorrow's does indeed look good.

[king_carlos]

I usually think he's a bit of a muppet as a pundit but before the series Michael Vaughan said that whichever of Smith or Root scored more runs would likely lift the urn. At the minute it's looking a very likely prediction.

Every Australia innings just feels a case of 'if they can get Smith out then it's wide open'.

[Gooseberry]

Tbf that is a bit like saying whoever wins the most games would win the series but itbdoes ubderly the point that now Warners broken both sides have one batsman genuinely worth a place each

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Play called off for the day as we hurtle towards a draw

[guildfordbat]

So plumb. What was Dar thinking? Surely he didn't hear an edge.

Just catching up with highlights. Joey - what do you mean that one was plumb? It was missing off, missing leg ... ok, it was hitting middle two-thirds up!

I wouldn't be quite so critical of Root as many of you folks concerning him starting with Archer. Archer's done well whenever I've seen him with the new ball - admittedly, usually a white one but the same logic has Roy opening the batting. Some credit to Root in my book for displaying confidence in his debutant speedster and encouraging him with use of the new cherry. I do though think Root should have alternated Archer, Broad and Woakes more - as at Edgbaston, Woakes seemed to be underbowled. There again, having Australia 80/4 suggests Root didn't make a complete pig's ear of it.

Away now for 2 weeks. I'll try to look in now and then.

[KP_fan]

The rain has ironically reduced the likelihood of result in favor of  only one winner and that is Aus.

if Aus bat all or most of the day today.....they would have a lead of 120ish.
And then if they bowl Eng out in 2 sessions and knock off any lead in last session of tomm.


Alternatively if Aus fall over in 2 or even 1.5 session today....Eng would have to bat long enough to reach security before declaring.
In this case there won't be time left for them to bowl Aus out second time

[sirfredperry]

Yes, the rain has almost completely ruled out an England win unless Aus collapse very quickly today.

But you could say that the rain has also lessened the chances of an England defeat which would have pretty much settled the series.

Key moment really was the 70-odd stand between Bairstow and Woakes which partly rescued England from the perils of 130-odd for six. If Eng had been bowled out for around, say, 160, Aus would have batted for longer in good conditions and could well have been ahead by now, even with Friday's rain.

It seems that neither side have a particularly sparkling batting line-up. It could be argued that this is the least distinguished group of batsmen in an Ashes series for some time.

[robbo277]

Perversely our poor batting might keep us in it. If we can bowl Aus out for a lead of 80 and get rolled for 150 we'd set them a challenging 230 and the stage would be set for Part 1 of Jofra's Ashes.

We're unlikely to declare with enough time to bowl them out with doubts over our ability to get Smith out and an unproven spinner in home conditions. But it's optimistic to think we might get to a position where we potentially declare in the first place.

[Duty281]

Right, if England get Smith out before 12, we can talk about an English victory. If Smith is still batting past 12, we can talk about an Aussie victory.

[alfie]

All speculation at the moment. I do think this is a pitch on which you are never "in" ; unless it changes : so far lots of starts but only two players reaching - just - fifty. So a team getting knocked over quickly - or even two teams - isn't impossible.
So I'd say anything could still happen.

In any case the first two hours will be significant as we will see whether or not Smith can still walk on water... He has actually played and missed at a couple so far ; but he still looks pretty solid. Important England maintain discipline ...don't get conned into chasing peculiar tricky plans too early.

Archer replacing Stokes already ? Woakes kept on the shelf again...

[Duty281]

Broad getting rewarded for his consistently full lengths. Shame for Wade; while he looked uncomfortable, he was leaving well up to that point. Temptation too strong in the end.

[Duty281]

Right, if England get Smith out before 12, we can talk about an English victory. If Smith is still batting past 12, we can talk about an Aussie victory.

Aussie victory it is. They should get pretty close, or even ahead, to England's first innings effort from this position.

[alfie]

Right, if England get Smith out before 12, we can talk about an English victory. If Smith is still batting past 12, we can talk about an Aussie victory.

Aussie victory it is. They should get pretty close, or even ahead, to England's first innings effort from this position.

Way too early I think. One more wicket and the bowlers are exposed. Even if they get a lead why assume England will fold second time around ?

English pessimism at full speed ?

Leach at last ...

[Duty281]

Well I don't make Australian victory the likeliest outcome (yet), but it's looking more likely than English victory at the moment. Smith and Paine both settled, England toothless and already have one eye on the new ball.

You'd expect Australia to get to around level from this position, and then England are firmly on the defensive.

[alfie]

Have to say Aussies have done well this morning. Bowling hasn't been bad but they've weathered it well to lose only Wade. Scoring rate not crazy but better than late yesterday...better conditions.

Smith fifty Like death and taxes ...

England need some magic.

[Duty281]

Smith could actually be the first man to score 1,000 runs in an Ashes series. Currently on 338 with another 7 possible innings to come after this one.

[alfie]

Well I don't make Australian victory the likeliest outcome (yet), but it's looking more likely than English victory at the moment. Smith and Paine both settled, England toothless and already have one eye on the new ball.

You'd expect Australia to get to around level from this position, and then England are firmly on the defensive.

Oh I'd agree an England win is looking more and more unlikely...they really needed to roll them this morning. But with the sun out batting doesn't look too hard now and I'd think the draw is looking the favorite now.

Still I can understand why you are always fearful of an England collapse !

Boycott would say imagine 169/7 , etc , etc...but moving Smith seems impossible . Just wish they would stop gifting him leg side runs ...

[Duty281]

75/1 in that session. Another two hours of England looking clueless and befuddled when bowling to Smith and bowling too short (especially Archer who's had a disappointing debut). Also disappointing for England was that the Aussies scored at a good clip.

If Australia bat through the extended afternoon session, I think they'll be favourites ahead of the draw. It's just difficult to see England batting 75/85 overs to save a game, which they'll need to do if Australia get level or a marginal lead.

Inspiration badly needed after the interval and with the new ball.

[KP_fan]

Game's still in balance ( i.e between a draw and Aussie win)
from where Aus stand they could finish at +/-par with English score and then draw becomes highly likel....or they could get a 100 runs on...and then they will most likely win

[Duty281]

England actually bowl to a plan which works. Another frustrating outing for Paine - getting a start but not kicking on.

One end open for England now...

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