Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Pr4wn wrote:Why are 16 and 17 year olds old enough to pay tax but not old enough to vote?

Good point, take them out of having to pay tax.

It might be less a case of thinking this is a good time to take him down, and more a case that what's emerging, and it still to emerge, is indefensible.

Also, it might be worth pausing on that 'upward trajectory in the polls' talk:

CON: 40% (-5)
LAB: 37% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)

via
@IpsosMORI
, 16 - 22 Apr
Chgs. w/ Mar

Outlier of a poll, that one, most have the Tories up by 9-11%.

Yes, I've seen them.

I wouldnt be too sure on the Tories holding their "red wall" seats. A lot of those seats were won on the ground of the Tories delivering Brexit. Now that we're out I'd wager they'll swing back to Labour.

Johnson should have been toast months ago. Just one of these scandals would be enough to bring down anyone else, but he hangs on. His charisma and popularity make him essentially bulletproof. Its infuriating.

There will be another parliamentary by-election happening in the near-future, this time in Batley and Spen. The current MP, Labour's Tracy Brabin, will soon become the first Mayor of West Yorkshire (the election is close to a formality), so that means she's legally bound to resign as an MP.

It's another seat, like Hartlepool, the Tories will believe they can take, having only lost by 43-36 in the last GE.

'The Electoral Commission has launched a formal investigation into the funding of Boris Johnson's Downing Street flat refurbishments.

'The watchdog has been in contact with the Conservative Party since March over works the PM carried out to No 11.

'But it has just announced it is "satisfied that there are reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred".'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56915307

December 2017...Corbyn's Labour..

Lab 45
Con 38

Yougov...Apr 26/27 2021...

Con 44
Lab 33...

Starmer with Johnson on the ropes is still 20 points behind on best PM..

Starmer isn't resonating...Labour need to soul search...Try Yvette Cooper or someone.

Need more than a vacuous plank.

Just a fleeting visit hope everyone is doing ok...Keep safe.

Bit difficult to gauge Starmer's effectiveness as we've still not had any elections since he became leader. That's about to change next week of course.

The Hartlepool by-election, Teesside and West Midlands mayoral contests, Welsh assembly elections and metro elections in so called red wall areas will be key barometers on how well Labour are doing.

Personally I think one of Labour's issues at moment is lack of exposure of shadow cabinet who are pretty anonymous, whilst the pandemic has for better or worse increased the profile of the likes of Hancock, Sunak and Williamson.

The Tees Valley mayoral election looks like a foregone conclusion, with the Tories set to romp home, and the West Midlands one looks very favourable to the Tories as well.

Hartlepool should be closer, the data seems to indicate a Tory win, but it's naturally very tough for a governing party to actually gain seats in by-elections. Unsure how good Labour's postal vote operation is in Hartlepool, which could be key. If it's anything like some places I've seen in Yorkshire, Lancashire and the Midlands, they'll be tough to dislodge; if it's anything like Copeland, it's hard to make a case for them winning.

Anything other than a Labour win in Wales would be a shock, though the overall margin will likely be lower than in 2016. The Tories may end up third behind Plaid.

Good overall analysis of the LEs here from the acclaimed Rallins and Thrasher: https://www.lgcplus.com/politics/rallings-thrasher-labours-red-wall-and-tories-blue-shires-under-threat-18-03-2021/

Think it's now fair to say that we are seeing the Tories lead in decline, with a few polls coming out showing their lead being slashed. Johnson won't care a jot, at least for now, because Survation have released another poll from Hartlepool, seemingly indicating the race is over:

CON: 50%; LAB: 33%

Further good news for Johnson, I suppose, is that the 'no' side for Scottish Independence have retaken the lead, with 7 of the last 9 polls putting 'no' in the lead.

"Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local and devolved parliament elections since 1973.

The mood among some Labour figures in Hartlepool was “pretty desperate”, sources said. Internal data from six weeks of campaigning shows that just over 40% of previous party supporters have said they will vote for the party again this week. The figure is what is known as a “promise rate” – who people say they will vote for – and is based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people in the town, most of whom have recently voted Labour.

If we were knocking on every single door and getting 40%, we could win it, depending on how it splits. But we’re only getting about 40% of people who we think are Labour, so it’s not great,” said one insider."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection

Playing down expectations, or genuinely believing the worst?

Labour out to 7.2 at the bookies. They’ve been wrong about them before (Pboro) but overturning a 17 point deficit from that poll, even with the caveats about sample size etc, seems an impossible task.

Sources suggesting Labour are getting the Mother of all hidings in Hartlepool...

9/1 if you disagree...

Some unknown reason Starmer going there and eating Fish and Chip meals with Pints of Beer hasn't been enough to see him welcomed by the Northern voters... .Bless.

Presuming things go as poorly for Labour as the 'insider sources' and paltry polling data indicate, then Starmer's position will come under pressure. I'd be shocked if he resigned as a result, however:

1) He could face an unwelcome challenge to his leadership, like Corbyn did.

2) As I previously mentioned, Batley and Spen will soon have a by-election, providing the Labour candidate for West Yorkshire Mayor does the necessary and taps into the open goal. If Labour lose that by-election, which is unlikely, Starmer's position would, in my opinion, be untenable.

Labour spokesman describing their turnout in Sunderland today as atrocious..

Won't be a challenge to Starmer but a wake up call in so far as he will need to set out a vision....Problem is he is so Vanilla..More life in corpses.

First result of the night:

Cowpen (Northumberland) council result:

Lab: 47.0% (-6.7)
Con: 44.7% (+27.3)
Ind: 8.3% (+8.3)

No UKIP (-23.4) as prev.

Lab HOLD

Could be a rough night for Labour if those swings remain constant. And the second:

Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:

Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)

No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.

Con GAIN from Lab

Ouch.

Yep, Labour getting annihilated by the Tories and, in some cases, the Lib Dems in the early results.

Could be a worse night than Starmer's lowest expectation if this carries on.

Big fan of watching Nicola Sturgeon putting ex-Britain First leader Jayda Fransen right in her place.

“You are a fascist, you are a racist and the people of Glasgow South reject you”.

Brilliant.

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Nicola Sturgeon putting ex-Britain First leader Jayda Fransen right in her place.

“You are a fascist, you are a racist and the people of Glasgow South reject you”.

Brilliant.

I also enjoyed Fransen's supporter shouting at Sturgeon, "you're the real fascist, you're trying to turn Scotland into a socialist republic"

Worse result in Hartlepool for Labour than even Survation reckoned. Tories win by a margin of 22%, Labour dipping below 30%. Labour did pick a rubbish candidate, and they failed to keep minor candidates off the ballot, but it wouldn't have mattered, such was the size of the defeat.

Tories rolling up the map so far in the LEs, taking new control of five different councils, in places as diverse as Northumberland and Nuneaton. Labour have lost 58 council seats at the current time of writing, and it's still plenty early in the count.

I'm starting to wonder for the first time if Labour's decline is terminal, if they'll ever recover. The one saving grace for them, currently, is there's no viable third party waiting to replace them - the LDs are making small steps forward, but they're still a long way off.

Labour supporters dont seem to be able to come to a consensus about what their problem is. Depending on who you ask its either Starmers fault, Corbyns fault, Brexits fault or Remainers fault.

Labours more left side need to accept that we’re not going to become a socialist country overnight, and its better to offer up an option like New Labour did, then lay the ground work and build towards that over time.

They arent going to get anywhere by continuing to tear each other apart.

As Labour's councillor losses in England hit three figures, the result of the Tees Valley mayoral contest has been announced. The incumbent Tory mayor got 73% (!) on the second round vote actually first-round because only two candidates stood this time, up from his wafer-thin 51% in 2017.

Tories now talking up the possibility of Bailey beating Khan in London, while Labour are saying it's closer than most would think.

Apparently Khan's only leading 38-37 after a quarter of the vote has been counted.

SNP take Edinburgh Central from the Tories - huge win for them taking Ruth Davidsons former seat.

Labour going pretty well in Wales. Both Labour and the Tories vote share is up 5%. Rolling out the vaccine successfully is the best campaigning you can do.

Looking like total wipe out for the Lib Dems in the Senedd.

Yes, looks like the only source of Labour joy can be found in Wales, and they've just displaced Leanne Wood.

Samo wrote:SNP take Edinburgh Central from the Tories - huge win for them taking Ruth Davidsons former seat.

My constituency.

So the vote in Wales and Scotland for Labour is holding up but in England they are getting thrashed...

Strange that....

C4 poll out last night had the number 1 reason for the dismissal showing Keir Starmer.

Appears a Vacuous...Vision-less...Charisma-less...block of wood hasn't resonated....Who knew ??

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:So the vote in Wales and Scotland for Labour is holding up but in England they are getting thrashed...

Strange that....

C4 poll out last night had the number 1 reason for the dismissal showing Keir Starmer.

Appears a Vacuous...Vision-less...Charisma-less...block of wood hasn't resonated....Who knew ??

There are reasons for that though. Welsh Labour have guided Wales through the pandemic and done pretty well at it and that, no doubt, has bought them votes. In Scotland Labour's vote has not seen any real change which I would put down, largely, to Anas Sarwar's decent campaign and seen as an improvement on Richard Leonard's leadership.

This is so bad for Labour in England that it might actually be a resigning matter for Starmer. The Tories have gained over 150 councillors, Labour have lost over 200, and there's still 40-odd councils to declare. And Labour haven't just lost to the Tories, they've lost stacks of seats to the Greens and even a few to the LDs. This is a worse outcome for Labour than the forecasted worse case scenario. Any slender hopes held by a few Labour supporters of becoming the largest party after the next GE have disappeared.

The one saving grace for Starmer might be Wales, where things have gone well and Labour look set to have a majority in the devolved parliament. Though the Tories have made gains, these haven't been at the expense of Labour, who have held off the challenge of Con and Plaid.

Scotland looks like being a mediocre return for Labour. Nothing special, but nothing terrible.

If Starmer is to stay on as Labour leader he needs to start articulating ideas and themes and become an aggressive opposition leader. At the moment Labour are drifting into extinction, they need a leader to shock them into action. Mind you, if Labour lose the upcoming Batley and Spen by-election, which after this set of results is a tangible possibility, Starmer will be out regardless.

Duty281 wrote:This is so bad for Labour in England that it might actually be a resigning matter for Starmer. The Tories have gained over 150 councillors, Labour have lost over 200, and there's still 40-odd councils to declare. And Labour haven't just lost to the Tories, they've lost stacks of seats to the Greens and even a few to the LDs. This is a worse outcome for Labour than the forecasted worse case scenario. Any slender hopes held by a few Labour supporters of becoming the largest party after the next GE have disappeared.

The one saving grace for Starmer might be Wales, where things have gone well and Labour look set to have a majority in the devolved parliament. Though the Tories have made gains, these haven't been at the expense of Labour, who have held off the challenge of Con and Plaid.

Scotland looks like being a mediocre return for Labour. Nothing special, but nothing terrible.

If Starmer is to stay on as Labour leader he needs to start articulating ideas and themes and become an aggressive opposition leader. At the moment Labour are drifting into extinction, they need a leader to shock them into action. Mind you, if Labour lose the upcoming Batley and Spen by-election, which after this set of results is a tangible possibility, Starmer will be out regardless.

Labour have bombed for a few reasons. The Blair years and the aftermath damaged them and they have basically been like a rudderless ship with captains in charge (leaders) with no real vision or divisive ideas for the party's direction in the future . They avoided key issues such as Brexit being non-committal and the Tories have benefitted greatly being pro-Brexit which falls inline with a big majority of English voters. Its seen them mop up ex-UKIP and ex-Brexit Party voters and the pro-Brexit ex-Labour voters too. That is basically why things have gone so bad for Labour. Political party in-fighting has not helped either. The Tories this time around are also getting votes for the vaccine roll-out too so there are several reasons.

However, how to Labour re-assert themselves? I really don't see how the do this without a complete overhaul and rethinking of what they stand for. I can see the Tories having a monopoly on power now for perhaps the next ten years as a result. The fallacy of the two party system.

“The forest kept shrinking, but the trees continued to vote for the axe, for the axe was clever and convinced the trees that because his axe was made from wood he was one of them.”

Starmer throws Rayner under the bus.

Hope he's prepared for the internal backlash.

The final score being 326 councillors lost for Labour in England and control lost of a net 8 councils, a humiliating result. The Tories, with a little help from the Greens, decimating Labour in the north of England. Labour also appear to have lost ground in Scotland. A few bright spots are how Labour did in the south-east, and the occasional gains they made in the traditional Tory heartlands, as well as the performance in Wales, though they fell just short of a majority.

Starmer's responded with a classic shadow cabinet reshuffle, but given most of the public are probably unaware as to who was in Starmer's shadow cabinet, I can't see this making much of a difference. The nightmare scenario of a by-election in Batley and Spen now looms large - if Labour lose that I can't see how Starmer can continue.

Tories will be delighted. 235 councillor gains in England, plenty of them in usual Labour heartlands, and gained control of a net 13 councils, best performance in Wales since the devolved Parliament was set up, won in Hartlepool, dominated the PCC elections, and if they had only picked a half-decent candidate in London it may have been the perfect weekend for them.

If a General Election were held tomorrow, the Tories would be expanding their majority. As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the Tories would be mad to get rid of Johnson and risk jeopardising their present electoral success.

Very good weekend for the Greens, too, they took a lot of Labour seats.

Keir Starmer approval rating..Yougov.

App 17%
Disapp 65%

Corbyn averaged in the mid 20s and his worst approval was 19%

Throwing Rayner under the bus makes him look slippery...Drinking pints and eating Fish and chips for four weeks in Hartlepool makes him look patronising....Not opposing BJ over Covid for most of it makes him look weak and incompetent.

Dead Man walking.. Tories already favourites for Batley and Spen

Labour get rid..Get Cooper in and next time I will vote Labour.

Won't vote for this plank.

Copper and Burnham seem to have joined the David Miliband club of becoming great leaders of the Labour Party, by not being leader. Their campaigns in 2015 were moribund, and that’s coming from someone who voted for one of them.

I'm unsure about Burnham, but I think Cooper would make a good leader. She's possibly the only one who I think could do a half-decent job, maybe Lisa Nandy as well.

4/1 that Starmer exits as Labour leader in 2021. Seems generous enough, if he loses Batley he's toast.

Government laying out its plans in the Queen's Speech. Good to see a requirement for photo ID will be introduced for upcoming elections, and the pointless Fixed Term Parliaments Act will be given the chop. Conversion therapy also set to go. Nice to see some commitment towards the environment and animal welfare, too. I also like the idea of the post-16 Education Bill and the Victims Bill.

Duty281 wrote:Government laying out its plans in the Queen's Speech. Good to see a requirement for photo ID will be introduced for upcoming elections, and the pointless Fixed Term Parliaments Act will be given the chop. Conversion therapy also set to go. Nice to see some commitment towards the environment and animal welfare, too. I also like the idea of the post-16 Education Bill and the Victims Bill.

Why is voter ID a good thing? There were only 33 investigations in 2019 regarding voter impersonation. Hardly a glaring or justifiable need for this, especially given the estimations to implement this is going to be around £20m per election.

But what of those voters that don't have passport or driver's license? The vast majority of them are young, and we know which way they usually vote.

It's easy to see why this is being brought in, they're taking a leaf right out of the voter-suppressing Americans' book. If the government want to implement this, they should offer free photo IDs to any voter that wants one.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Government laying out its plans in the Queen's Speech. Good to see a requirement for photo ID will be introduced for upcoming elections, and the pointless Fixed Term Parliaments Act will be given the chop. Conversion therapy also set to go. Nice to see some commitment towards the environment and animal welfare, too. I also like the idea of the post-16 Education Bill and the Victims Bill.

Why is voter ID a good thing? There were only 33 investigations in 2019 regarding voter impersonation. Hardly a glaring or justifiable need for this, especially given the estimations to implement this is going to be around £20m per election.

But what of those voters that don't have passport or driver's license? The vast majority of them are young, and we know which way they usually vote.

It's easy to see why this is being brought in, they're taking a leaf right out of the voter-suppressing Americans' book. If the government want to implement this, they should offer free photo IDs to any voter that wants one.

To bolster security of elections and increase trust in the electoral process, in line with the recommendations from the Electoral Commission in a 2014 report. Great Britain is one of the few places left that doesn't require voter ID (Northern Ireland of course has had it for nearly two decades).

I agree that a free or v. low-cost option should be brought in for those who don't already have ID (like in Northern Ireland, currently).

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