RWC 2011 POOL C SPECULATION...!

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Pool C RWC 2011

Australia - 86.65

Ireland - 82.51

Italy - 73.54

USA - 66.78

Russia - 61.93

Australia are the highest ranked team in this Pool but I actually personally think Ireland are the strongest team. I would place them as favourites, due to their consistency over the last ten years with a settled side. The Aussies are viciously creative in attack but are rather unproven in the heat of the cauldron, something that Ireland are good at.

Italy caused their annual upsets in the Six nations and are a consistently improving force, never to be taken lightly as Ireland know full well. An O'Gara drop goal was the only thing preventing Italy's season looking fortuitous last winter, they also beat France.

I am afraid I don't know much about either America or Russia other than Russia are a rising force and America would be undoubted world champions if they took rugby as seriously as gridiron.

I was surprised, for no reason whatsoever really, that what with the press and reports on Russia's emergence that they were behind the USA in the rankings, I presumed they were impressing their skills on the rankings far more. Russia have performed amicably in their recent internationals and have a couple of quite formidable players, and Phil Kingsley-Jones is their coach.

America have a great winger in Takudzwa Ngwenya who strode on to the scene with wonderful tries against SA in RWC 07. There are a couple of other notable players like fullback Chris Wyles of Saracens and formerly Saints, long haired flanker Todd Clever who plays for Suntory in Japan but has formerly played for the Lions in SA in the Super 14, infact he played for the against the B&I Lions in 09.

I don't want to talk history. You brought it up. I just corrected you.

The only games that I think are significant are the last two which were a draw and a 7 point win for Australia in Brisbane.

Rob B - the poster of this thread is Welsh. The point you bring to his attention had already been brought there. The Irish don't agree with it, but say they do have a chance of beating Australia.

I think Australia will beat Ireland. I'd be more optimistic about Ireland beating South Africa in the quarter final.

Rob B wrote:There are some pretty odd claims on this thread. Or maybe they are just cliches.

Consistency over the last 10 years with a more settled side? Is this really a criteria for success at a RWC? 10 years? In that time frame Ireland have beaten Australia once - in Ireland - in atrocious conditions. Does the last 10 years count for anything in relation to one game? Do you think Ireland's record outside Ireland really stacks up? I don't.

I guess I didnt make my point as clearly as I thought. Ireland have had one of the most stable team selections of all the sides competing at this world cup, the core of their team have played together for years. Australia do not have the same core of players

to me that sounds indicative af a team that does'nt have new,young players coming through challenging the old hands for their positions...

aucklandlaurie wrote: to me that sounds indicative af a team that does'nt have new,young players coming through challenging the old hands for their positions...

You don't get players as talented as Brian O Driscoll and Paul O Connell appearing on the scene annually in many countries outside of NZ mate.

aucklandlaurie wrote: to me that sounds indicative af a team that does'nt have new,young players coming through challenging the old hands for their positions...

Yeah, just like the NZ coach's constantly have selection headaches about whether to pick that old fella, whats his name, McCaw! And his pensioner sidekick Carter.

Don't make me bring up the 'rugbys the fourth most popular sport in Ireland' again.

DaDubs1 wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote: to me that sounds indicative af a team that does'nt have new,young players coming through challenging the old hands for their positions...

Yeah, just like the NZ coach's constantly have selection headaches about whether to pick that old fella, whats his name, McCaw! And his pensioner sidekick Carter.

Don't make me bring up the 'rugbys the fourth most popular sport in Ireland' again.

...and about the 12th most popular sport in Australia, 4th most popular of football codes and ranked 7th in spectator attendance.

Whats the sequence of games i.e. when do Ireland face Australia?

I think most will admit that this is the key game in this Pool with the Group Winner coming from these two teams.

Yes Italy can cause teams concern but they have never beaten Australia (that I know of) and Ireland SHOULD be more than capable of beating them.

The sequence good be what decides it, by that I think we (Wales) have a great chance as we have the Boks first up, when do Ireland play Australia?

Some news out of Australia this morning, Berrick Barnes has played a couple of club games and put his hand up to play vs NZ this weekend

And off Matt Giteau's Twitter feed this morning

giteau_rugby matt giteau
Heard a rumour some body in press saying I want out of ARU and Wallabies! Couldn't b further from truth! Hate rumours

maestegmafia wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote: to me that sounds indicative af a team that does'nt have new,young players coming through challenging the old hands for their positions...

You don't get players as talented as Brian O Driscoll and Paul O Connell appearing on the scene annually in many countries outside of NZ mate.

You don't get them appearing anywhere on an anual basis.

I think there is a bit of a conservative mindset in Ireland when it comes to throwing youngsters in the deep end. Also we only have 4 professional teams so it is difficult for the young players to establish themselves at times. However where they are good enough then they do tend to break through.

That said I don't think a lot of people realise how much the Irish team has changed over the past 4 seasons. If you look at our 1st choice side in 2007 vs 2011 there has been 10 changes to the 1st XV:

2007

15 Dempsey
14 Horgan
13 O'Driscoll
12 D'arcy
11 Hickie
10 ROG
9 Stringer
8 Leamy
7 Wallace
6 Easterbuy
5 O'Connell
4 O'Callaghan
3 Hayes
2 Flannery
1 Horan

2011

15 Kearney/Earls
14 Bowe
13 O'Driscoll
12 D'arcy
11 Earls/ Trimble
10 Sexton
9 Reddan
8 Heaslip
7 Wallace
6 SOB / Ferris
5 O'Connell
4 O'Callaghan
3 Ross
2 Best
1 Healy

Can only see Australia and Ireland progressing with Italy missing out. The Russians reputedly have a big pack but their match is against the USA (looking forward to that one).

Italy are stronger than 2007, and if taken lightly could pull off a shock but feel the Australian and Irish forwards will get enough possession to enable their better backs to win the game comfortably. If either game day is wet & windy though, then bets are off and could see the Italian forwards wringing their hands.

Certainly not impossible for Ireland to top the group, play like they did against England and it could easily happen, but difficult not to fancy Australia as the group winners. Both sides have relatively weak front rows, very good back 5s, and great backs, hope for a warm day and little breeze, this should be one of the group matches to watch.

Not much to discuss in this pool.

Australia should win it. Ireland could give them a tip-up for first spot, otherwise they should go through in second place.

If Ireland happen to lose to Italy, Nick Mallet should be given the Webb Ellis Trophy without any further matches played.

And Ireland should go home in sackcloth and ashes via Australia, South Africa, France, Portugal, Spain, Romania and Italy to sample local .

Write off Itly at your peril I reckon.

In their last 6 tests have beaten France and Fiji and lost to Scot, Wales and Ireland 13, 8 and 2 points dif respectively.

To me that says they are in this company at present and just need the scales to tilt their way a little on the day.

in a neutral zone like NZ the Ire/ Italy match is one of the first I would mark down as a potential upset, the Fiji and Samoa Wales games the others.

Italy have improved immeasurably recently, and I would be no means say the result is a foregone conclusion, but for me they're only really competitive at home and I don't see them being ready to take our scalp in a world cup just yet. It's a potential upset no doubt but for me Samoa/Fiji v Wales, France v New Zealand and Scotland/Argentina v England are more likely to occur.

Yep. Frances best chance of beating NZ is if they must win it to get through. If they are already second and are simply playing for tops I think they'll settle and save it for the quarters, just like Scotland last cup. They know they fall off after batting NZ as they leave nothing on the field when its over but the toll hits next match. They'll ease off for certain.

Yes Englnd need to watch it. They play a controlling style and can get unstuck if tearaways occur and I find in tests these days the odd chip through or break happens very often. Many tries these days start from the deep. Look at the Abs last week, Samoas against Oz etc.

That is where the upsets will come. No on will really grind England down, but they might rip them off. Same with us. Fiji ran in a classic 70 metre try against the ABs.

I think it's fair to say Australia would be favourites but Ireland are capable of an upset.

If Ireland solely focus on Australia they could come unstuck against Italy.

Likely result:
1.Australia
2.Ireland
3.Italy
4.USA
5.Russia

What has the last 30 years got to do with anything?

When was the last time Australia beat Ireland outside of Australia?
And how many players currently in the squad were playing that day?

I’ll answer for you – it was 6 years ago and Nathan Sharpe is probably the only player in the starting XV that will go to the world cup.

Nathan Sharpe was cut from the 3N squad today... his chances of getting back in for the RWC are very slim now.

http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/sharpe-axed-for-vickerman-in-tri-nations-squad-20110802-1i8xo.html

Ireland are the key to this group. If they click, then they could put Italy to the sword and squeeze a narrow victory against Australia. If they don't click, then they could lose heavily to Australia and be narrowly defeated by Italy. I'm confident enough expectations of what Australia and Italy will play like in the RWC. But Ireland are a bit of a question mark. They can vary from a free flowing running game to a stick it up the jumper kind of a game. The risk is the free flowing running game is pushed a little too much allowing opposition capitalise on cheap turnover ball with good field possession. I think this will be one of the more interesting pools for the neutrals to watch.

Mickado wrote:What has the last 30 years got to do with anything?

When was the last time Australia beat Ireland outside of Australia?
And how many players currently in the squad were playing that day?

I’ll answer for you – it was 6 years ago and Nathan Sharpe is probably the only player in the starting XV that will go to the world cup.

Good way of looking at it, the fact that Austrlia are a better side is probably more relevant than the fact that for all intents and purposes Ireland never beat Tri Nations sides away from home.

Its the only game to watch in this group though, neither will lose to Italy. Either could win it.

Mickado wrote:What has the last 30 years got to do with anything?

When was the last time Australia beat Ireland outside of Australia?
And how many players currently in the squad were playing that day?

I’ll answer for you – it was 6 years ago and Nathan Sharpe is probably the only player in the starting XV that will go to the world cup.

It's got to do with the fact that Ireland can't win outside Ireland against W. World Cup aint in Dublin.

Rob B wrote:

Mickado wrote:What has the last 30 years got to do with anything?

When was the last time Australia beat Ireland outside of Australia?
And how many players currently in the squad were playing that day?

I’ll answer for you – it was 6 years ago and Nathan Sharpe is probably the only player in the starting XV that will go to the world cup.

It's got to do with the fact that Ireland can't win outside Ireland against W. World Cup aint in Dublin.

Since the last world cup, Australia have not beaten Ireland outside of Australia either. And the world cup aint in Australia.

Rob B wrote:

It's got to do with the fact that Ireland can't win outside Ireland against W. World Cup aint in Dublin.

We haven't won. Can't is a different thing altogether.

MBTGOG wrote:

Rob B wrote:

It's got to do with the fact that Ireland can't win outside Ireland against W. World Cup aint in Dublin.

We haven't won. Can't is a different thing altogether.

Sure. I have not said that Ireland cannot win. Anyone can claim that they can win. I think it will be a good game to be frank. I think Wallabies would expect to win. Ireland would hope to.

Rob B wrote:

MBTGOG wrote:

Rob B wrote:

It's got to do with the fact that Ireland can't win outside Ireland against W. World Cup aint in Dublin.

We haven't won. Can't is a different thing altogether.

Sure. I have not said that Ireland cannot win. Anyone can claim that they can win. I think it will be a good game to be frank. I think Wallabies would expect to win. Ireland would hope to.

Yes you have.

The reference to the 30 year comment was historically Ireland can't win outside Ireland. ie They have not won. ie They have not been able to win. That can be a pointer to their chances this time around. Not saying it is impossible though.