Rabo Direct Pro 12 ~ Fixtures Week 1 / Discussion/ Predictions

Fri 2 Sep 19:05 Ospreys v Leinster Liberty Stadium BBCw
Fri 2 Sep 19:05 Ulster v Warriors Ravenhill BBCni/ALBA
Fri 2 Sep 19:30 Edinburgh v Blues Murrayfield
Sat 3 Sep 15:00 Treviso v Connacht Stadio di Monigo
Sat 3 Sep 19:45 Munster v Dragons Musgrave Park TG4/S4C
Sun 4 Sep 16:00 Scarlets v Aironi Parc y Scarlets S4C

The rugby season officially starts this week, though I think most of us have forgotten because of the looming World Cup

Personally I think it will be all home wins apart from Connacht winning in Trevisio.

Anyone going to see any of the games?

I'm going to the Ospreys and am hoping to go to the Scarlets one also

I'd say all home wins. Although on the laws of probability there would always be an away win. I'd think Edinburgh V Blues will be the most likely to result in an away victory.

Hard to tell, though, with so much RWC disruption.

Ospreys to win.
Ulster to win.
Blues to win.
Treviso to win.
Dragons to win.
Scarlet to win.

red_stag wrote:Dragons to win.

Traitor!

I'm looking foraward for the season to start it gives us a chance to see some of the fringe players in regular action.

greybeard wrote:

red_stag wrote:Dragons to win.

Traitor!

He's on the wum. There's not a cat in hell's chance that Dragons will win in Cork. I'd love them too of course, but realistically we'll only pick up one win in September (Aironi home) and lose the other three (Munster, Leinster and Connacht away).

Anyhoo, Ospreys win, Ulster win, Embra win (I think), Connacht win, Munster win, Scarlets win.

Ospreys win
Ulster win
Blues win (we beat Edinburgh 4 times last year and have them 4 times again this year + the Blues have a strong team during the WC)
Treviso win
Munster win
Scarlets win

Risca Rev wrote:

greybeard wrote:

red_stag wrote:Dragons to win.

Traitor!

He's on the wum. There's not a cat in hell's chance that Dragons will win in Cork. I'd love them too of course, but realistically we'll only pick up one win in September (Aironi home) and lose the other three (Munster, Leinster and Connacht away).

Anyhoo, Ospreys win, Ulster win, Embra win (I think), Connacht win, Munster win, Scarlets win.

Have gone for a Dragons win in the predictions game.Munster are decimated whilst we have only lost a few.He who dares!

I fancy Ospreys, Ulster, Treviso, Scarlets, Edinburgh and Dragons to win. Dragons will be the big surprise but I'd say the stage is set for an upset. Bloody glad Ulster don't have the Dragons first up. One of the toughest teams to play with the big guns away. Settled and dangerous.

Munster versus Dragons will be very tight. Going to wait until i see the teams before I commit myself on SportsGuru though

Anyone think Glasgow can spring a upset at Ravenhill? I feel we are favourites and this is the kind of game we really should win well even with the big guns missing but I'm wary of them.

Notch wrote:Anyone think Glasgow can spring a upset at Ravenhill? I feel we are favourites and this is the kind of game we really should win well even with the big guns missing but I'm wary of them.

No. Without their internationals, this Glasgow side is very weak.

For those who are interested, Jared Payne is set to join up with Ulster on the 4th/5th of September. Looks likely to miss Aironi then, but may be available for the Blues on the 16th depending on how long it takes him to settle in. I'd be inclined to ease him in slowly. Adam D'Arcy played well on Friday anyway.

John Afoa won't be with us until December as far as I know.

Notch wrote:I fancy Ospreys, Ulster, Treviso, Scarlets, Edinburgh and Dragons to win. Dragons will be the big surprise but I'd say the stage is set for an upset. Bloody glad Ulster don't have the Dragons first up. One of the toughest teams to play with the big guns away. Settled and dangerous.

Munster versus Dragons will be very tight. Going to wait until i see the teams before I commit myself on SportsGuru though

Kind of settled yeah. Though we'll have unproven players at 8, 9 (probably), 11 and 14 and I'm not convinced that our scrum is good enough (well whoever plays 3, as Phil Price is fine). It helps that there's evidence that our locks are more abrasive, but I don't think we are abrasive enough to go to places like Munster and Leinster and win yet, even if they are more weakened. If I'm honest I'd take a LBP as it's an improvement on last season. Not having Brewy might let us down too (though Mike Poole looks like he might have something about him).

Unfortunately I can’t see Leinster picking up a win. 14 players away with the WC, Isa, Sykes, Horgan, Conway, Sheridan, Fitzgerald, Carr and McKinley seemingly injured.

What kind of team do the O’s expect to put out?
I would say Leinster will be looking at:

VDM – Strauss – Hagan
Toner – Browne
McLaughlin – Ruddock – Ryan
Cooney/Willis – Berquist
Hudson – O’Malley – Macken – Kearney
Madigan

That’s pretty thread bare!

I actually fancy Connacht to beat Treviso.

Don't forget Treviso have lost 12 players, compared to Connaght's ZERO, for the World Cup.

Treviso's biggest problem last season was strength in depth, and their probably weaker than last season with New Zealander international Full Back Joe Maddock leaving for Saracens.

Wasps also stuffed Trevisio 54-11 last Saturday, so their confidence can't be that high.

Mickado wrote:What kind of team do the O’s expect to put out?

15 Richard Fussell
14 Eli Walker
13 Sonny Parker
12 Andrew Bishop
11 Hanno Dirksen
10 Dan Biggar
9 Rhys Webb
8 Joe Beraman
7 Justin Tipuric
6 Jonathan Thomas
5 Ian Gough
4 Ian Evans
3 Cai Griffiths
2 Mefin Davies
1 Duncan Jones

I wouldn't look past this team to be honest, it's more or less our best of what's left, though there are still 10 Internationals in there.

Mickado wrote:Unfortunately I can’t see Leinster picking up a win. 14 players away with the WC, Isa, Sykes, Horgan, Conway, Sheridan, Fitzgerald, Carr and McKinley seemingly injured.

http://www.irishrugby.ie/news/23772.php

Isa Nacewa, Eoin O'Malley and Richardt Strauss are expected to be available for selection ahead of Leinster's trip to the Liberty Stadium this weekend.

O'Malley was a late withdrawal from the starting line-up for the Bank of Ireland Series clash with Northampton Saints last Friday due to illness.

Following scans at the weekend, Eamonn Sheridan's knee injury is worse than first thought. Ligament damage is likely to rule him out until the New Year.

Steven Sykes suffered a medial ligament injury which is expected to rule him out for the opening two to three weeks of the campaign, while Andrew Conway damaged his ankle which will keep him out of Friday night's game in Wales.

Shane Jennings' call-up to the Ireland Rugby World Cup squad means that there will be 14 Leinster representatives on duty in New Zealand including Isaac Boss and debutant Sean Cronin, who both featured against Northampton at Donnybrook.

David Kearney successfully came through his first game of the season, while the squad to take on the Ospreys will also include Fionn Carr, who scored his first competitive try on Friday since his return to the province this summer.

Other Leinster Academy graduates in the mix are Jamie Hagan, Rhys Ruddock and Dominic Ryan. The team and replacements will be announced on Thursday afternoon.

AlynDavies wrote:I actually fancy Connacht to beat Treviso.

Don't forget Treviso have lost 12 players, compared to Connaght's ZERO, for the World Cup.

Treviso's biggest problem last season was strength in depth, and their probably weaker than last season with New Zealander international Full Back Joe Maddock leaving for Saracens.

Wasps also stuffed Trevisio 54-11 last Saturday, so their confidence can't be that high.

Connacht may have lost zero players, which just goes to show the quality of player on their books.

Anyway, they've lost Vainikolo, so... nearly zero.

So Alan, basically what you’re saying is I should check my own clubs website before I speculate on who’s available.
It’s a novel idea, but I’ll give it a try…

greybeard wrote:Connacht may have lost zero players, which just goes to show the quality of player on their books.

Anyway, they've lost Vainikolo, so... nearly zero.

Sure but they did beat them Connacht 31 - 25 Benetton Treviso, last season at home, so using the scissors, paper, rock theory, if they beat the full team at home. Then you take 12 players away from Treviso and one from Connacht, then in theroy Connacht win?

AlynDavies wrote:

greybeard wrote:Connacht may have lost zero players, which just goes to show the quality of player on their books.

Anyway, they've lost Vainikolo, so... nearly zero.

Sure but they did beat them Connacht 31 - 25 Benetton Treviso, last season at home, so using the scissors, paper, rock theory, if they beat the full team at home. Then you take 12 players away from Treviso and one from Connacht, then in theroy Connacht win?

But they've lost Keatley, Carr, Cronin and Hagan. Who are probably 4 of their 5 or 6 most important players.
They might not be at the world cup but they're not at Connacht any more...

Players In Season 2011/12
George Naoupu from Kobe Steel
Niall O'Connor from Ulster
Mark McCrea from Ulster
Matthew Jarvis from Ospreys
James Loxton from Cardiff Blues
TJ Anderson from Ulster
Stewart Maguire from Leinster Academy
Ethienne Reynecke from Saracens
Fetu'u Vainikolo from Highlanders
David Moore from Harlequins
Eoin McKeon promoted from Academy
Paul O'Donohoe from Leinster
Eoghan Grace from Exeter Chiefs
Henry Fa'afili from Leeds Carnegie


Players Out Season 2011/12
Ian Keatley to Munster
Sean Cronin to Leinster
Jamie Hagan to Leinster
Mike McCormish to Ulster
Conor O'Loughlin retired due to injury
Fionn Carr to Leinster
Troy Nathan to Glasgow Warriors
Cillian Willis retired
Bernie Upton to Toshiba Brave Lupus
Niva Ta'auso to Counties Manukau
Aidan Wynne to Leinster AIL Club
Shane Monahan to Rotherham R.U.F.C.
Darragh Fanning to Tuggeranong Vikings
Liam Bibo
Ezra Taylor

I still don't like the name of the league it sounds like the latest must have Xmas toy.

Of all the games we could be discussion I never assumed we'd be talking about Connaght and Treviso!

How about we agree to differ, and I'm just gonna back Connaght for the win

Cymroglan wrote:I still don't like the name of the league it sounds like the latest must have Xmas toy.

I thought we'd all agreed to call it the League?

1) Screw the public trust
2) Protect the Irish
3) Bend the law
4) (Classified)

AlynDavies wrote:Of all the games we could be discussion I never assumed we'd be talking about Connaght and Treviso!

How about we agree to differ, and I'm just gonna back Connaght for the win

Fine by me.

Now the next trick will be getting you to spell Connacht right before you're torn apart by rabid Galwegians

I'm not on the WUM at all guys. I think Dragons have traditionally been a bogey team in some ways for Munster (though usually at Rodney Parade).

We are without Hurley, Flannery, Botha, O'Callaghan, O'Connell, Ryan, Leamy, Wallace, Murray, O'Gara, Earls, Jones and there are question marks over Johne Murphy, James Coughlan, Declan Cuscak, Ian Nagle.

We have had 2 defeats out of 3 including a 15-0 defeat at home against Wasps. I'd back a narrow win for Dragons.

Anyway, as you say, back to the sensible teams.

I'm probably going to put my foot in it right now, but I just don't see Dragons winning in Cork. I know they haven't lost many players, but there's something about Munsters tenacity at home. They may have lost a large number of players, but the ones at home like Howlett, Coughlan, Ronan will drive them.

They have a young set of backs that have 2-3 years already under their belt and they played a significant role in Munsters excellent ML season last year, and at out half they have recruited a very capable understudy to ROG.

Probable team:

Horan, Varley, Hayes
O'Driscoll, Nagle
Coughlan, O'Mahony, Ronan
O'Leary, Keatley
Mafi, Barnes
Zebo, Hurley, Howlett

Sherry, du Preez, Archer, O'Callaghan, Holland, Stringer, Cusack, Scanlon

What are the Dragons and Connacht's away form like?

I will happily say I know very little about most of the Rabo players from the smaller teams but am happy to learn.

Didn't Treviso beat the likes of Leinster at home last season?

How often do Munster lose at home? They won the Rabo last season.

Are you sure some of you aren't taking the warm up matches too seriously?

Wasps hammered Treviso and beat Munster away in the warmups. Does that mean they will do well in the AP? I doubt it.

With my lack of Rabo knowledge I will go for

Ospreys to win.
Ulster to win.
Blues to win.
Treviso to win.
Munster to win.
Scarlets to win.

Treviso vs Connacht is the toughest to call.

Carr and Fitz should be fit as well as far as I know.

The best team he could put out with injuries et al

VDM-Strauss-Hagan
Browne-Toner
McL-Ruddock-Ryan
Willis-Berquist
Macken-O'Malley
Fitz-Nacewa-Kearney

Not half bad in my view

I think Connacht should win tbh or at least get a bonus point.

See Ulster winning too.

Agree that Blues Edinburgh will be the closest in terms of an away team winning.
I think Connacht or Dragons seem to be least affected by RWC so that will stand to them.

Ospreys team is still very strong.

If Carr is fit will we see him play at 13? I heard somewhere, probably on here but can’t remember, that it was a move that Schmidt was looking to test out…
In fairness to him, he seemed to play well in both warmup games and Kearney is only back from injury so it would be harsh to drop him.

Dragons are targeting their away form so Darren Edwards says. However we still seem to get a brain freeze when we play away!

I'm going:

Ospreys v Leinster - Ospreys, Leinster are missing a lot of players
Ulster v Warriors - Ulster, likewise both Scottish teams will be very threadbare
Edinburgh v Blues - Blues, see above!
Treviso v Connacht - Connacht, a lot more settled
Munster v Dragons - Munster, Dragons away form strikes again
Scarlets v Aironi - Scarlets, Play at a tempo Aironi won't deal with.

beshocked wrote:
Are you sure some of you aren't taking the warm up matches too seriously?

Wasps hammered Treviso and beat Munster away in the warmups. Does that mean they will do well in the AP? I doubt it.

No but your talking about an overall season. I'm just talking about our first game of season.

Dragons don't travel well and losing the majority of our key players will hurt us. We might not have lost as many players as others, but losing our 2,4,6,8 and try scoring 11 is massive. Plus having an unproven lad at 9 is not great. Munster will win, of that I am sure.

Are you missing that many Rev?

greybeard wrote:Fine by me.
Now the next trick will be getting you to spell Connacht right before you're torn apart by rabid Galwegians

There's only a couple of hundred, Connacht fans!
Na just joking! I will try and learn to spell it right

Risca Rev wrote:Dragons don't travel well and losing the majority of our key players will hurt us. We might not have lost as many players as others, but losing our 2,4,6,8 and try scoring 11 is massive. Plus having an unproven lad at 9 is not great. Munster will win, of that I am sure.

I think they've got a small chance, the Dragons have looked really sharp in Pre-Season. It's clear they can score tries from nothing, though their pack might want a boot up the backside after going to sleep early on in the Leeds game.

Trevor Brennan Rugby Tour wrote:Are you missing that many Rev?

Burns, Charteris, Lydiate, Faletau, and Brew.

red stag I based my prediction on Munster being the defending Rabo champions and having home advantage!

How many games did you lose last season? How many at home?

What's the Dragons away form like?

Obvious I know but a team is a lot harder to beat at home.

beshocked wrote:What's the Dragons away form like?

Hard to say, they played 2 home pre-season games, one against Russia won 40-12, and one against Leeds won 29-13.

Beshocked - Dragons away form last season was played 17, won 3, drawn 1, lost 13.

beshocked wrote:What are the Dragons and Connacht's away form like?

Poor and really poor. Connacht won a single away game last year, which was their first away win in 4 years or so.

beshocked wrote:Didn't Treviso beat the likes of Leinster at home last season?

They did. In fact they beat a fair few teams at home last year. They won their first ever league match against a tough Scarlets, which shocked a few people who weren't aware just how good Treviso can be.

beshocked wrote:How often do Munster lose at home?

Not sure. But 'not often enough' would be my mantra

Sorry forgot Carr he will be instead of Kearney.

Mickado wrote:If Carr is fit will we see him play at 13? I heard somewhere, probably on here but can’t remember, that it was a move that Schmidt was looking to test out…
In fairness to him, he seemed to play well in both warmup games and Kearney is only back from injury so it would be harsh to drop him.

Really? Bad idea I think. He's not much of a passer.

Thanks for the stats guys.

greybeard that's my point. I normally look at these stats when I make predictions. That's why I did quite well in the AP predictions last season. I would probably try the Rabo if I had actually had any knowledge on it.

Impossible standards I presume those wins were against the likes of Aironi,Connacht,Treviso and Glasgow?

Of course Dragons are capable of winning but home advantage is so important! When did Dragons last beat Munster away?

Who are Munster missing altogether ?

I'd fancy Dragons chance if they werent missing Lydiate/Faletau/Brew/Charteris

Here's the biggest stat. The ML is the hardest league in which to win away from home, there's something like a 75% home win percentage since regionalisation.


I can't remember where I read that, so I don't have a link. Sorry.

Impossible Standards wrote:Beshocked - Dragons away form last season was played 17, won 3, drawn 1, lost 13.

Even then you could say that our good results from them were when we played teams when they were weakened (winning v Ospreys away, drawing v Glasgow away and winning at Sale in the Mickey Mouse cup).

Trevor, missing 5 for the WC and two first teamers with injury. The one plus is Tovey seems to have got his kicking boots back, but it concerns me that most of our big players who are missing are likely to be replaced by unproven guys. I just can't see past a Munster win.

munkian wrote:Who are Munster missing altogether ?

Flannery, POC, DOC, Ryan, Leamy, Murray, ROG, Earls

Wallace & Jones (to injury)

Jones too

greybeard wrote:

munkian wrote:Who are Munster missing altogether ?

Flannery, POC, DOC, Ryan, Leamy, Murray, ROG, Earls

Wallace (to injury)

Quite a tally, I remember beating you at home but never away, hope for a good game !

Someone just called me a Munsterman! Take that back!

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/teams/munster/stats.php

Munster have an impressive 83% win record at home in the Pro 12 as a whole.


http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/teams/dragons/stats.php

Compare this to Dragon's 24% win record away from home.

Unfortunately there are no head to head records on the Pro 12 site. That is something that should definitely be added!