Clarification on Ireland qualification chances?

I've just heard a news report on the radio saying Ireland Win against Italy = they top the group, lose and they go home.

I hadn't realised we were in that situation, I thought we were safer. Italy bonus point against USA changed things.

But surely if ireland got a losing bonus point that would square it up again? What then? Point difference?

Can anyone clarify the situation? Seriously have to respect Italy. They will have real belief going into this and will be well fired up!

If Ireland lose they are out. Unless they get a losing bonus point and a try bonus point and Italy don't get a try bonus point. Which unlikely. I think that if we end up on the same pool points, the result between the teams will be the deciding factor. They're three points behind us so even a losing bonus point on its own won't be enough.

We should have gotten more than three tries against the USA so we can't complain.

So if Ireland dont go through it could be Wales V Italy ?

Good. Backs to the wall time again

Cheers Rogue! Ok.... All of a sudden the ROG/Sexton arguement seems a lot more worrying. I want to take every point possible from the boot!

Rogue...you missed Aus in the equation

Ireland can lose without bonus points depending what they do in their final game.

Ireland win..top whatever
Ireland lose with 1 BP and Italy none, ..aus win without a BP they go third (head to head), aus win with a BP they go top and Irelnad go out
Ireland lose with 2 BPs they go top unless Italy get one as well then Ireland are out if aus win with one
Ireland lose with Italy getting a BP and Australia win but dont get one.....Ireland and Italy go through but Ireland cant go top even if they get 2

Lets just not lose to Italy then.

I see Nick Mallet has said Italy are positive that they have a better front row than us. Fighting words, I love it. First scrum is going to be massive.

munkian wrote:So if Ireland dont go through it could be Wales V Italy ?

Prob more likly be Aus V Wales

munkian wrote:So if Ireland dont go through it could be Wales V Italy ?

Or Italy v Samoa

this sounds like a horrible situation for the irish fans. but it certainly spices things up for the rest of us.

heres to a great game.

If you think being able to lose to Italy and still have a chance of going through is horrible.

I wouldn’t say it’s horrible. I think most of us assumed this would be winner takes all anyway.

I had always been assuming the Italy match would be vital. But after beaten Aus, i guess i allowed myself to feel a little more optomistic than the mathematics would have advised me to be!

Isn't it the same for Wales and England? Lose a game that they 'should' (England's 'should' is a smaller 'should' than Wales' 'should') win but could easily lose would possibly mean they're out. Same as Ireland

if ireland win they are through

Its the same as we expected except a bigger reward.

Before: Winner take all v Italy. Loser goes home. Winner plays SA

Now: Winner take all v Italy. Loser goes home. Winner plays Wales

HammerofThunor wrote:Isn't it the same for Wales and England? Lose a game that they 'should' (England's 'should' is a smaller 'should' than Wales' 'should') win but could easily lose would possibly mean they're out. Same as Ireland

Bit different In england group as England dont have quite the same worries reagrding poor BP's and points difference as Ireland do.

England win ..thorugh and top
England lose, Scotland get BP ...Argentina win with BP England are out Argentina top...Argentina win wiothout BP England are through second
England lose with BP, Scotland dont get BP...Argentina win England are top, Scotland out (regardless of Argentinas BPs)
England lose neither them nor Scotland get BP....Argentina win without they and England (unless scotland win big with billions of kicks) go through, Argentina get BP then they and Scotland go through

Cant be bothered with Wales, Samoa wont beat SA and Wales surely can f it up against Fiji who arent anything special at the minute.

red_stag wrote:Its the same as we expected except a bigger reward.

Before: Winner take all v Italy. Loser goes home. Winner plays SA

Now: Winner take all v Italy. Loser goes home. Winner plays Wales

Except Ireland can lose and still qualify see above

Yea Stag, it seems cruel that pulling off the unimaginable against Aus didn't change the worst case scenario of our final match!
The team should be in fine form with the belief that came from the Aus match, and the chance to stretch their legs against Russia.

All the same though, i'll be very nervous.

Have to feel for Italy, one of the unfortunate teams faced with a short rest period for such a vital match.

clivemcl wrote:Yea Stag, it seems cruel that pulling off the unimaginable against Aus didn't change the worst case scenario of our final match!
The team should be in fine form with the belief that came from the Aus match, and the chance to stretch their legs against Russia.

All the same though, i'll be very nervous.

Have to feel for Italy, one of the unfortunate teams faced with a short rest period for such a vital match.

"Fortune" favours those who qualified in the top pots by consistently winning games and getting a high seeding. Have to feel for Itlay being rubbish.

It´d be the cruelest blow to see Ireland bow out after their magnificent effort. But why shouldn´t Italy come out with all guns blazing. They´ve everything to play for.

I get the feeling that this will be a tense, tight affair with a lot of Irish nerves and a lot of Italian niggle. I expect Ireland to pull away near the end but I suspect the fans in green will be watching through their hands at some stages of the match. Italy are like the random guy at the party that nobody seems to know and nobody wants to talk to him. Then near the end of the party he says and does something outrageous and is the talking point the following day. Ireland will be hoping he´s the guy who heads off to the bushes to relieve himself and is never seen again.

If Italy beat Ireland then surely Italy finish in 2nd with Australia topping the group meaning Wales go back to playing Australia in th 1/4 final, or am I wrong?

Yes Australia would play Wales. But Ireland would go out and Italy would face South Africa in the quarters.

We would be quite unlucky to go home early with 3 wins, but if Italy, Australia and Ireland all finish on 3 wins thats the way it goes. I think it's pretty safe to assume Australia will get the bonus point against Russia and qualify with 15 points.

Right now we have 13 points and they have 10. They win they get 4, that means the only way we could qualify while losing is if we score four tries and stop them getting the bonus.

wrfc1980 wrote:If Italy beat Ireland then surely Italy finish in 2nd with Australia topping the group meaning Wales go back to playing Australia in th 1/4 final, or am I wrong?

As written above (several times) it depends who gets what bonus points. When teams are tied on points it goes by head to head or if 3 teams are tied points difference.