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Bargain?

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Grizzly
GB1919
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Post by GB1919 Tue 04 Oct 2011, 10:46 pm

Jordy Nelson this week signed a 3 year, $13M contract with the Packers. I'm not suggesting that he is anywhere near the level of the players below but he is clearly productive (it helps being the No. 2 and having Rodgers throwing at you) and constantly improving. The top 10 highest paid receivers are (apparantly):

Larry Fitzgerald: 8 years, $120M
Calvin Johnson: 6 years, $55.5M
Brandon Marshall: 5 years, $47.3M
Steve Smith (Car): 6 years, $44M
Miles Austin: 7 years, $57M
Andre Johnson: 7 years, $62.7M
Reggie Wayne: 6 years, $39.5M
Roddy White: 6 years, $48M
Greg Jennings: 4 years, $28M
Anquan Boldin: 4 years, $28M

Compared to those figures I think the Packers got themselves a bargain. Anyone agree or disagree? Who else in the league is under (or over) paid? I'm thinking of players who have recently signed contracts here, clearly someone like Peyton Hillis deserves more than a 7th round draft picks rookie contract.

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Post by Grizzly Tue 04 Oct 2011, 11:01 pm

I take the view that players like Nelson benefit from the coverage being on Jennings, Finley, Jones, Driver and now Cobb, so when lining up in a 4 or 5 WR set the attention will be on others allowing him the freedom to make plays - I've got to the point where I think the Packers offence is just about impossible to defend, Rodgers is so damn good and the playbook is ridiculous, if he wante dto Rodgers could put up 400 yards every week.

I think Nelson is an OK receiver, probably a good #3 maybe #2 receiver on a normal team, on this team he's less of an obvious threat but benefits, as I say, from less attention IMO.

On the subject of contracts, they're pretty much a waste of time.
Rookies get paid based on their pick number, so 3rd rounders get 3rd rounder money but if they end up being a gun they will get their contract re-structured and earn more, whereas the franchises are tied to a 1st round bust and (until this year) committed to paying these rookies $6m a year for 5 years to carry the clipboard and warm a bench...

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Post by crazy_dave23 Tue 04 Oct 2011, 11:18 pm

I have to say that when i saw this is was impressed with a tidy piece of business.

As Grizzly said, I think just about anyone could look good in our offence. However since about the second half of last year I thought that Nelson came on remarkably and was an integral part of the playoff push and Superbowl. Prior to that I would have rated James Jones above him, but he kept dropping balls and generally has flattered to deceive.

With Driver close to being done I think this is a valuable move in locking up an "underneath" type receiver who makes yards after the catch.

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Post by GB1919 Wed 05 Oct 2011, 9:21 am

I complete agree with you Grizzly about rookie contracts but that was why I was looking for examples of players who had signed new contracts and been over or under paid.

I think you are being slightly harsh towards Nelson however. Yes he benefits from the team he plays in and the fact that the opposition can't possibly cover everyone and I did admit this. But he is the clear No. 2 (on the field if not on paper) of the current Superbowl champions a so far undefeated team. To suggest that he would be a good No. 3 maybe a No. 2 elsewhere is unfair. He is showing constant improvement and has developed really sticky hands. Most teams in the league would take him, and probably pay him more than $13M over 3 years.

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Post by BamBam Wed 05 Oct 2011, 10:20 am

I rate him highly, he has decent deep speed, good hands and isn't afraid of going over the middle. On the 49ers he would be our best receiver by far so for me this is a good deal for the Packers

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Post by Grizzly Wed 05 Oct 2011, 10:56 am

GB - that may be true, he may well have made big strides, buit on this Packers team he would never get in front of Jennings (so never better than #2) and Finley is targeted more than Nelson despite being a TE so he is, in my view, not better than a 3rd choice target - but only on this team.

I guess there are teams where he could command #1 status but I think he'd be happier having Rodgers airing it out to him rather than Luke McCown.

Throw in Cobb, a fading Driver and the fact that the RB have more receptions on the screen than Nelson I'm not sure my original statement was way off.
At the end of the day, I guess Neslon, Rodgers and McCarthy don't give a damn whether any receiver is regarded as a #1, #2 or #5 option, all the team know (as do the rest of the league) is that the Packers have more weapons and playmakers than anyone and can bully/dominate at will

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Post by skins4ever Wed 05 Oct 2011, 12:34 pm

I would put it this way, and its a kindness of sorts to Grizzly - the Packers don't have a depth chart in normal sense of the word. Some players get targeted more than others (Jennings, Finley), but the offense is designed to spread the ball around more than most teams do because they have the talent. They use packages to take advantage of certain match ups as many teams are starting to do (i.e. your big TE against an MLB down the seam, or TE/big WR in the red zone), so you are more likely to see certain players more often in such situations, than in on every down or a series. I like this as it gives more opportunity to guys that otherwise would be stuck on ST's or just languishing down the bottom of the depth chart waiting to get cut.

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Post by GurTPL Wed 05 Oct 2011, 3:36 pm

GB1919 wrote:Who else in the league is under (or over) paid? I'm thinking of players who have recently signed contracts here, clearly someone like Peyton Hillis deserves more than a 7th round draft picks rookie contract.


Two NFC South RB contracts from the 2011 offseason:

DeAngelo Williams

Contract
- 5 years
- $43 million
- $21 million guaranteed

Production
- 37 attempts, 143 yards, 3.9 average yards per carry, 0 touchdowns
- 7 receptions, 46 yards, 6.6 average yards per reception, 0 touchdowns

Darren Sproles

Contract
- 4 years
- $14 million
- $6 million guaranteed

Production
- 15 attempts, 134 yards, 8.9 average yards per carry, 1 touchdown
- 26 receptions, 224 yards, 8.6 average yards per reception, 1 touchdown

I know they play different roles in their respective offences, but the Saints backfield is far more crowded than the Panthers', especially considering D-Will is the primary back in Charlotte, and yet still has managed to turn in considerably more production.

If you want to break it down by the money (not sure how much each player is getting this specific year, but going by the total amount, divided by the number of years in the contract, divided by 4, since we're a quarter of the way through the season):

Williams has earned $2.15 million so far. The Panthers are paying him $11,376 for each yard he's gotten (189 yards total).
Sproles has earned $875,000 so far. The Saints are paying him $2,444 for each yard he's gotten (358 yards total).

I realise that's a lot of money talk, but looking at that, there's no question who's getting more bang for their buck.

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