Week 5 lines

Not intended to step on toes of the weekly comp or weekly previews by Mike and Pr4wn, I used to do this on 606 as there were one or two who used to add to their Sunday entertainment with a bet on NFL.

Titans @ Steelers.
Are there 2 teams who have surprised this season more for differing reasons ?
Big Ben seems to get hurt every time his porous o-line get overun, Meandenhall is a doubt for Sunday and they're up against a Titans team who have played solid football all year.
I'll give the Titans a chance to stay close and maybe nick the win.
Titans +3

Panthers @ Saints.
Divisional match up but this could be over as a contest by the half.
Saints are a proper team this year, Panthers have made improvements and Newton seems to have immediately struck a great partnership with Steve Smith who, without the acquisition of Newton would probably have moved on.
Panthers have done a decent job at stiffling the aerial game to date but they're getting killed on the ground, however I think a combination of Brees, his numeorus targets and the Thomas/Ingram team will be enough to see a comfortable Saints victory.
Saints to cover the handicap -8

Bungals @ Jags
Bungals are close to be the real surprise package this season - stubborn management, no QB, no WR, favs for the #1 pick, it all looked doom and gloom for Lewis' men, but impressive wins in Cleveland and in Paul Brown Stadium against the hot Bills last week have made people re-think, their two losses against Denver and Niners were by an aggregate 7 points and only late TDs cost them the wins.
Dalton and Green have formed a great partnership and throw in a much improved defence who are allowing just 275 yards a game (compare this with the Patriots 475 yards a game) and you can see why they're not the rollovers everyone thought they'd be (though still not good enough for me to stop calling them Bungals).
I'm expecting them to return from their trip to Jacksonville with a win and the fact the Vegas line has Jags 2 point favs means I can back them at odds against to win outright and with a 2 point start
Bunglas +2

Jets @ Pats
If you own a Foxboro season ticket I think you're in for value this season, Brady looks as good as ever as does Welker and their pass rush and secondary is almost non existent.
Add this to a Jets defence playing a notch or two below their level for the last couple of seasons (especially on the ground so fantasy players Green-Ellis could be in for a big day) and I can only see points in this one.
Even a QB at the level Sanchez is playing is likely to shred the Pats secondary.
It's a big line but I can only see the total going over it.
Over 49 points

Chargers @ Broncos
Something is wrong this year, no-one is ridiculing Norv Turner (though it's worth noting the 0-3 4th down conversion attempts) and the Chargers have a positive record. Of course they still have a negative turnover ratio and still have special teams problems and Rivers hasn't got going this season yet, and yet they sit 3-1.
Gates is banged up, VJax is struggling with injury but they now have a genuine running game and even though your average NFL punter will tell you the road to the poor house is backing road teams in inter-divisional match ups who have to give up points, I'm going to say ignore all that and get with the Chargers, they just might be a more rounded team this year, and even if I'm wrong there the Broncos look guff.
Chargers -6

Packers @ Falcons
Where to start ?
Find me a weakness in the Packers team and I'll find you a reason why Arsenal can still win the EPL.
This is becoming a grudge match though - Packers don't like Falcs, they thought they were arrogant and obnoxious last season and Matt Ryan in particular has come in for some harsh words fropm Packers players. This may well come down to who remains professional for the 60 mins but the most notable comment I read this week was that Packers will not waste an opportunity to build up a score on the Falcs and they were disappointed they didn't manage the 50 points in last seasons play off game (48 was plenty though).
With that in mind, and the fact the Falcs have looked weaker than last season and that Rodgers now has Finley as well as his numerous other targets, I can only see a high scoring Packers win.
Packers -6
Over 51 points.

Also, keep an eye out for the total points across all games, the weather seems good across the States and the match ups point towards TDs, 13 games that I am expecting to see around 600 points and I know one or two bookies run this market and price up around 42/43 a game (550 ish), I'm looking to get on the overs.

Good luck

Nice thread Grizzly, I've been so wrapped up in FF that i haven't got around to topping up my betfair account lately!

Definitely like the look of the Saints at -6.5 and the Pack/Falcons at Over 53.5.

I figured there'd be some movement from the opening lines Moot, I got these Mon/Tue/Wed, not surprised by the move up on points in the Packers game but surprised the line has moved against the Saints.
Hey ho, win some lose some....

I picked them off betfair 10 minutes ago, i guess the odds also vary depending on your bookmaker of choice.

Have you backed all the above, or are they just suggestive advice?

I've done an accumulator each week but not won yet! Eagles cos me £70 last week!

Thinking of going with these this week:

Giants to win
Bengals to win
Saints to win
Houston to win
Eagles to win
Colts to win
Chargers to win
Packers to win

I never put a bet up that I haven't played already Moot.
The Packers paid for a new car and a couple of very nice holidays this year, 2011 season hasn't been so kind yet, it's due to change....

I mostly get the spread idea, but how does the over/under work?

skins4ever wrote:I mostly get the spread idea, but how does the over/under work?

total points scored in the game (afaik)

wadey - for what it's worth I'd be with you on every leg of that acca, NFL being what it is tells me 1 or 2 will let you down though leaving everyone scratching their heads.

Skins - spreads in US terms are the handicap line (in UK spreads are very different) so the Vegas casinos determine how far a team will win by and you can back either team either giving up a start or getting one.
Over/under as Moot says is the total points on the game - when the weather is fine the line tends to go over more often (and the way the league is set up now we're seeing far more points than previous years), but wait until the wind/rain/snow kicks in, there will be great value in going under.
You may remember the Panthers game in Jacksonville a couple of weeks back, heavy rain and strong winds made offensive football impossible and the game ended up about 14-10.
Some shrewdies I know only ever play under and only then on the strength of weather reports....

Chat Box is up at the bottom of the home page for any that want to join me!

disappointed with the titans so far, thought this was a good opportunity. Delighted with the vikings, now i just hope the niners beat tampa, really happy with the niners as they had a lot of doubt but as i expected arizona aren't a great team even with a new qb and seattle and st louis need even more work than the niners. The niners D, especially the linebackers are among the nfl's best and we now just need the offense to keep up like they have shown they can do, Hunter and crabtree will breakout hopefully even more

god damn my bucs looked horrible. had to stop watching in the third quarter.

GurTPL wrote:god damn my bucs looked horrible. had to stop watching in the third quarter.

The 49ers looked to have got huge confidence from last week's Eagles win. 7-9 won their division last year so they may only need a few more wins?

My question is, will Alex Smith revert to type a la Grossman, or is this the making of the man?

Well the way they're D is playing and with Gore getting it done on the ground Smith only needs to be a game manager and not lose games for the 49ers, I would say they've all but won the division at this point ... I would say that but it is Alex Smith after all ...

I don't know. After watching a couple of his TD throws yesterday, I think Harbaugh is coaching out his bad habits. One thing he's demonstrated since day 1 in the league is the ability to thread a ball into a tight space. He did it at Wembley last season IIRC, and his pass to Walker was a thing of beauty.

Subject to tonight outcome, Smith is #3 QB in the league by rating. Hard to imagine after his career to date!

I watched most of the 2nd half of the Niners game and I was impressed by Smith's management of the game. Having said that, the Buccs were woeful so I don't want to get too carried away with our performance but I definitely agree with thunder and lightning that the defence was outstanding.

Bowman has been brilliant, already has 42 tackles on the year (more than Willis) and Rogers has an interception in his last 3 games and made a couple of big tackles yesterday.

I think we can win the division, and the game next week against the Lions looks like it could be one of the games of the season. Who would have thought that at the start of the year

skins4ever wrote:Subject to tonight outcome, Smith is #3 QB in the league by rating. Hard to imagine after his career to date!

Which just goes to show how meaningless a stat passer rating is!

skins4ever wrote:I don't know. After watching a couple of his TD throws yesterday, I think Harbaugh is coaching out his bad habits. One thing he's demonstrated since day 1 in the league is the ability to thread a ball into a tight space. He did it at Wembley last season IIRC, and his pass to Walker was a thing of beauty.

Subject to tonight outcome, Smith is #3 QB in the league by rating. Hard to imagine after his career to date!

Troy Smith played the Wembley game, Alex Smith was hurt.

And definitely agree with thunder and lightning about passer rating. Hell, most stats are pretty useless - I'm not sure where it stands now, but before the 2010 season, Chad Pennington had the best career pass completion record in NFL history...

You say that, but if you look at other QBs that are around the top and those near the bottom then it wouldn't be much different if you happened to be doing a personal choice top 30 qbs list so you gotta give the guy some credit and appreciate that he his playing well at the moment

bambamwillis wrote:Rogers has an interception in his last 3 games and made a couple of big tackles yesterday.

Funny how he had stone hands and couldn't do the same when he was at the Skins.

GurTPL wrote:And definitely agree with thunder and lightning about passer rating. Hell, most stats are pretty useless - I'm not sure where it stands now, but before the 2010 season, Chad Pennington had the best career pass completion record in NFL history...

I think the passer rating is a valuable guide over the course of a season, but it is meaningless on a game by game basis. I once had a near perfect passer rating in a game. I came on in the latter stages of a blowout and threw one pass for a 42yd TD!

willis, have you saw the impact that aldon smith is having as well, him and brooks are in the qb faces all night, goldson looks better every game also