Six Nations 2012 predictions...!

First topic message reminder :

This is one of those threads designed for us to have a decent debate on the chances or lack of chances for each nation months in advance of the actual tournament so that we can see either how right or how wrong we were several months later.


RBS Six Nations Fixtures

Sat 4th Feb 12 14:30 France v Italy Stade de France
Sat 4th Feb 12 17:00 Scotland v England Murrrayfield
Sun 5th Feb 12 15:00 Ireland v Wales Aviva Stadium

Sat 11th Feb 12 16:00 Italy v England Stadio Olimpico
Sat 11th Feb 12 20:00 France v Ireland Stade de France
Sun 12th Feb 12 15:00 Wales v Scotland Millennium Stadium

Sat 25th Feb 12 13:30 Ireland v Italy Aviva Stadium
Sat 25th Feb 12 16:00 England v Wales Twickenham
Sun 26th Feb 12 15:00 Scotland v France Murrayfield

Sat 10th Mar 12 14:30 Wales v Italy Millennium Stadium
Sat 10th Mar 12 17:00 Ireland v Scotland Aviva Stadium
Sun 11th Mar 12 15:00 France v England Stade de France

Sat 17th Mar 12 12:30 Italy v Scotland Stadio Olimpico
Sat 17th Mar 12 14:45 Wales v France MIllennium Stadium
Sat 17th Mar 12 17:00 England v Ireland Twickenham


So pin your opinions to your chest an march in to tell us who will do what to who. Though I do not want to read people posting just to disagree with other posters when they do not forecast a prediction themselves. If you do not have the cojones to state your own thoughts before you wish to disagree with someone else's then you are a poor sport.

To my mind the winner of the penultimate match between Wales and France in Cardiff could well prevail. Both sides had impressive WCs, and have retained most of their players for this tournament.

England are going through a transitional phase, Scotland are improving (but maybe not fast enough to get near the top of the table), Italy will produce one top drawer performance (probably versus England or Scotland in Rome) and Ireland look to be on a downward curve (although the 7/2 for the Triple Crown is tempting as they play only England away)

Feckit, not one person saying that Ireland will win it, yet, people cast votes for them. Well four people did. Including me.

Ireland don't have BOD for the first time, in a long while. Time to step up, and win the bloody thing without him.

I'm for them taking the entire kit and caboodle:

Retaining the Millennium Cup
Retaining the Centenary Quaich
Retaining the Triple Crown Trophy
Getting back the Earl of Westmorland Championship Trophy

And - whisper it - winning the trophyless Grand Slam.

There - I said it.

well said Pot, looks like theres going to be a lot of very disappointed people when Ireland win it

I would say that most people voted for their own county here regardless of what they really think. I voted for France because I think they will actually win.

I think Ireland will do well though. At least third and probably second. I think Wales will be up there but I'm not sure about them. I think their toughest test will be in Dublin and they wiil be beaten. They could do well elsewhere with France at home for example. Edinburgh have gone well in the Heino but Scotland have had a problem scoring tries. They could produce one or two notable scalps but a very good finish for them would be third. Ditto Italy. England will be strong as usual but with all those new players who knows?

ianp1970 wrote:Ireland look to be on a downward curve

On what basis are you concluding that? That they lost their last game?

mankiaow wrote:I would say that most people voted for their own county here regardless of what they really think. I voted for France because I think they will actually win.

I think Ireland will do well though. At least third and probably second. I think Wales will be up there but I'm not sure about them. I think their toughest test will be in Dublin and they wiil be beaten. They could do well elsewhere with France at home for example. Edinburgh have gone well in the Heino but Scotland have had a problem scoring tries. They could produce one or two notable scalps but a very good finish for them would be third. Ditto Italy. England will be strong as usual but with all those new players who knows?

Considering France are the popular vote. I think a great deal of us voted for who we think will win.

France
Ireland
England
Wales
Scotland
Italy

France are the best team in Europe no doubt. Wales have as usual too many injuries, England too inexperienced, Ireland will come close and Scotland and Italy will be very competitive.

I think you might be right there Leinsterbaby.

luckless_pedestrian wrote:

ianp1970 wrote:Ireland look to be on a downward curve

On what basis are you concluding that? That they lost their last game?

On their performance of last years 6N (2 losses and 2 narrow victories, preceding a thumping of England) and that of 2009 (3 wins, 2 losses) being worse than previous tournaments: thus a downward curve.

I will happily be proved wrong if Ireland win the title. Also, I did suggest that the price offered on an Irish TC was worth a punt!

leinsterbaby wrote:France
Ireland
England
Wales
Scotland
Italy

France are the best team in Europe no doubt. Wales have as usual too many injuries, England too inexperienced, Ireland will come close and Scotland and Italy will be very competitive.

Gethin is a loss but James is a very able deputy, The second row is actually not so much of a blow. Evans and Bradley provide a ball carrying presence that neither AWJ or charts can. The lineout wont be weakened with Evans there and whilst Charts defence was awesome I fully expect the two welsh locks to step up.

Lydiate is a hugely underated player but in Ryan Jones we have a former Wales captain and British lion to step in.

Priestland is a loss but we have our most capped player or Hook to step in both Lions both with experience.

If you think we have too many injuries then youve missed the strength in depth Wales have built in the last two years.

Yes you need strength in depth to win championships but having to rely on it so early in the tournament will make it tough for Wales. Ryan Jones isn't great, former lion or not, Wales' revival has coincided with him being dropped.

Stephen Jones' form and his presence has been surprisingly poor for a guy of his experience given how reliable he used to be. Wales' have a great player in Warburton and some good try scorers in North, Halfpenny etc. but I don't think they will have enough.

leinsterbaby wrote:Yes you need strength in depth to win championships but having to rely on it so early in the tournament will make it tough for Wales. Ryan Jones isn't great, former lion or not, Wales' revival has coincided with him being dropped.

Stephen Jones' form and his presence has been surprisingly poor for a guy of his experience given how reliable he used to be. Wales' have a great player in Warburton and some good try scorers in North, Halfpenny etc. but I don't think they will have enough.

I would counter that with your midfield defence being weak and offence toothless without BOD. Your Backrow wont win as many turnovers and turnover ball is the holy grail in the modern game. YOur scrum will be under pressure which will stop your backrow. Im certainly not going to defend Wellies your right but he is a bench option if the worst case scenario unfolds and priestland is out; but noises from the camp suggest he is going to make it. Ryan Jones has been in the best form of his life recently. I expect you to disrupt our lineout there is nothing new about that. Neither Sexton or O Gara posess a long kicking game from hand nor do they have halfpennys range from place. Your best back is on the wing and wont see the ball. How have Ireland improved since the 2009 Slam? They have regressed Kidney needs to change things but has he picked the players to bring somthing different to the table? nope.

Its interesting how as these Polls amalgamate votes over a lengthy period they clamour similarities with like Polls on other forums. This now almost parallels the equivalent on Planet Rugby's pages. Though with a lot less contributor's and more votes for Ireland.


France 30% [ 30 ]
Wales 28% [ 28 ]
England 21% [ 21 ]
Scotland 10% [ 10 ]
Ireland 7% [ 7 ]
Italy 1% [ 1 ]

I can't believe that 3 times the amount of people think England will win compared to Ireland.

That surprises me too, Overlord, but you have to bear in mind that Ireland have to go to Twickenham and the Stade de France this year. Also, much-changed or not, England are the defending champions.

I bet the ten Scots votes would change over night if they had seen the team picked for the first game

overlordofthewest wrote:I can't believe that 3 times the amount of people think England will win compared to Ireland.

Ireland are away to France.

Feckless Rogue wrote:

overlordofthewest wrote:I can't believe that 3 times the amount of people think England will win compared to Ireland.

Ireland are away to France.

So are England!!

The four 6 Nations Championships of the last world cup cycle were poor. Each year only one team really played well and strolled to the championship.

I think this one will be much more exciting. I hope we go into the last day with England v Ireland and Wales v France, with all four teams in with a chance to win the Championship. It could happen.

Irish Independent

IRELAND: The defeat by Wales clearly wasn't too good for World Cup business but currently it is providing real focus for Ireland's start next Sunday.

The problem is the trip to Paris the following weekend where France will have their tails up and Ireland traditionally have their backsides kicked. So there may not be a Grand Slam to compensate for missing out on our best ever opportunity at a World Cup.

Still, Declan Kidney should be glad that the loss of Brian O'Driscoll isn't the setback now that it would have been three years ago, and that elsewhere his injury sheet is clear, bar Leo Cullen, who might have got a start in the third round against Italy.

If Mike Ross stays fit for the campaign, then Ireland can challenge for runners-up spot behind France, providing the new load on the shoulders of Les Kiss and Mark Tainton is one they can carry successfully.

wales

A year ago, Wales were wondering if their coach would survive to the autumn as they went into the Championship with two wins from their 12. Then they won -- somehow, with no set-piece -- against England first up, and by the end of the year they were wailing about missing out on a World Cup final and burning effigies of Alain Rolland. Their current position, statistically, is a bit healthier (50 per cent from last eight) but defeat in Dublin would make it four losses in a row and a change in mood. Nowhere in the rugby world does your credit run out faster than Wales.

Their challenge is to cope without an engine room of Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn Jones, who set phenomenal standards for work-rates in the World Cup.

If Warren Gatland has to factor Rhys Priestland and Dan Lydiate out from Dublin, then his team will have changed shape for the worse. A losing start in store.

Pretty fair assessment by the irish indi

We call it the 'Indo' and yes it is pretty realistic about both teams.

ianp1970 wrote:

Feckless Rogue wrote:

overlordofthewest wrote:I can't believe that 3 times the amount of people think England will win compared to Ireland.

Ireland are away to France.

So are England!!

It's a bit baffling really. Ireland, before the QF, were on the rise and showing some good form. They lost against Wales but that was only one game. The only form guide since then is the HC and we know what's been happening there. France had a great WC but are definitely getable, even for Ireland in Paris. England don't seem to be a daunted by a trip to Stade de France but you just don't know how they are going to fare with all the changes. Wales may struggle to get moving, especially with their injury list, but they could be up for it against France in the last game if they get their full team out. While Scotland are being talked up and are always tricky, particularly at home, they were not so impressive in the WC. Italy will hand out a few bloody noses but it would be a surprise if they got more than 2 home wins, which would be not half bad.

If I were a political analyst I would say that the Irish posters are being realistic/pessimistic about their chances and have mostly voted for France(probably because of our record there). Most of the other posters probably voted for their own country.

Planet Rugby's predictions for Scotland and the Sassenach

http://www.planetrugby.com/poll/results/0,26151,309060,00.html

Scotland Narrow win gets more than double the vote of England