Six Nations 2012 predictions...!

First topic message reminder :

This is one of those threads designed for us to have a decent debate on the chances or lack of chances for each nation months in advance of the actual tournament so that we can see either how right or how wrong we were several months later.


RBS Six Nations Fixtures

Sat 4th Feb 12 14:30 France v Italy Stade de France
Sat 4th Feb 12 17:00 Scotland v England Murrrayfield
Sun 5th Feb 12 15:00 Ireland v Wales Aviva Stadium

Sat 11th Feb 12 16:00 Italy v England Stadio Olimpico
Sat 11th Feb 12 20:00 France v Ireland Stade de France
Sun 12th Feb 12 15:00 Wales v Scotland Millennium Stadium

Sat 25th Feb 12 13:30 Ireland v Italy Aviva Stadium
Sat 25th Feb 12 16:00 England v Wales Twickenham
Sun 26th Feb 12 15:00 Scotland v France Murrayfield

Sat 10th Mar 12 14:30 Wales v Italy Millennium Stadium
Sat 10th Mar 12 17:00 Ireland v Scotland Aviva Stadium
Sun 11th Mar 12 15:00 France v England Stade de France

Sat 17th Mar 12 12:30 Italy v Scotland Stadio Olimpico
Sat 17th Mar 12 14:45 Wales v France MIllennium Stadium
Sat 17th Mar 12 17:00 England v Ireland Twickenham


So pin your opinions to your chest an march in to tell us who will do what to who. Though I do not want to read people posting just to disagree with other posters when they do not forecast a prediction themselves. If you do not have the cojones to state your own thoughts before you wish to disagree with someone else's then you are a poor sport.

St Andre coming in for Lievremont was announced before the WC which might have gone some way to explaining his actions etc.

I relly think Phillipe will have them firing pretty soon.

kia, Lievremont gone, replaced by Toulno's coach, Saint-Andre, Mallett also gone, replaced by Perpignan's coach, Brunel, MJ expected to be told this week. Kidney, Gatland and Robnison all under contract for a few more years

Cheers guys.

Well no surprise to me Lievremont has gone. Have a lot of respect for St Andre so that´s lifted my title hopes for France as they have a relatively easy year.

No doubt will hear about the MJ decision on this board but getting rugby news in Madrid is like getting colour out of a goth. Very difficult unless you resort to physical violence.

The MJ decision is imminent, tomorrow or Thursday...! The rumour is that the RFU want to keep him, it is just whether or not he feels he can do, or wants to do the job.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:What is the story with the coaches? Gatland and co are continuing as is Decs. When is the moment of truth for Lievremont, MJ, Mallett and AR? Have there been announcements?

The continuity for Ireland and Wales will be a positive thing. If England get a new manager (which I hope they don´t as I don´t think MJ should fall on the sword for England´s RWC effort, though certainly he can take a lot away from the experience) you may see a few changes to the team but I can´t see it happening. I think Scotland will persist in AR but if he has a poor 6N he may well get his marching orders.

?

Lievremont was dismissed before RWC and Philippe Saint Andre replaces him

Yes thanks Gatts, we´ve cleared that up now.

That explains the moustache he grew. He wanted to remain incognito after the tournament...

It will be interesting to see how France go with a coach other than Leivremont? I dont think that the French liked playing under Laporte either, he was too conservative, Leivremont too erratic.

How will St Andre be???

They do seem to like their ex player coaches. I think one thing Saint-André must realise is that the selection policy cannot be erratic and chop and change like a Ginzu knife set. He can´t play a specialist halfback at flyhalf either.

One thing´s for sure, one thing mad Lievremont did with all his selections is create a nice balance of youth and experience. Plenty of options for the new coach and a lot of depth with a lot of good players to come back from injury as well like William Servat.

Well said. Very experienced squad of around 150 players all of a decent age with international experience after all the chopping and changing.

Lei remount tried practically every Frenchman from Paris to Perpignan over his four years in charge.

France, Wales, England or Ireland are all capable of winning the 6N with Scotland and Italy both capable of pulling off a few upsets, i think injuries can play a big part and the team who suffers least with injury disruptions will be in the best position to win the tournament

Pretty much as per the last five years.

Back to normal I reckon.

Top;
France
England/Ireland

Bottom;
Italy/Wales
Scotland

Looking back on results since 6 nations began here are the teams that have won it.

2000 England
2001 England
2002 France
2003 England
2004 France
2005 Wales
2006 France
2007 France
2008 Wales
2009 Ireland
2010 France
2011 England

So That leaves Scotland and Italy the only teams to not win the 6 nations with Scotland's best result being 3rd (2006) and Italy's 4th (twice).

From a Scottish point of view, I think we're all fed up of coming 5th, which has been our result for the last 4 years in a row. 6N 2012 we should be aiming to do what we did 2006, win all our home games, scrape past Italy and maybe even beat Ireland or Wales if possible.

Overall I think this year is very hard to call. Wales seem to have all the hype just now and also France due to their good run at the world cup. Yet I have a feeling that no single team will run away with it and we'll have a tighter contest on our hands.

bsando wrote:2000 England
2001 England
2002 France
2003 England
2004 France
2005 Wales
2006 France
2007 France
2008 Wales
2009 Ireland
2010 France
2011 England

Whats interesting about that is how much more even and competitive the 6N has become with 4 different winners in the past 4 seasons. There really isn't a dominant side right now.

roddersm wrote:

bsando wrote:2000 England
2001 England
2002 France
2003 England
2004 France
2005 Wales
2006 France
2007 France
2008 Wales
2009 Ireland
2010 France
2011 England

Whats interesting about that is how much more even and competitive the 6N has become with 4 different winners in the past 4 seasons. There really isn't a dominant side right now.

England's early domminance is when they had their best ever team - its then dominated by France with Wales getting 2 grandslams inbetween then Ireland's first one in Aaaaaages.

Ireland have really underperformed with the squad they've had

munkian wrote:Ireland have really underperformed with the squad they've had

Tell me about it!

Seriously though we did ok and got what we deserved mostly. France were very strong during that period but we did blow great chances in 2002 and 2007 though .

ireland won quite a few triple crown's as I recall which in itself was a vast improvement. However, they should really have won more titles with that team. They were looking v good for the 2007 RWC and had a complete shocker. If I were an Ireland supporter I guess that I'd be happy for the GS and regluar wins over England but probably feal a bit cheated that a talented team ultimately failed to achieve their potential

damngoodOvalball wrote:If I were an Ireland supporter I guess that I'd be happy for the GS and regluar wins over England but probably feal a bit cheated that a talented team ultimately failed to achieve their potential

I wouldn't put it those terms but from watching Ireland battle to avoid the wooden spoon in the 90's I'm pretty proud of those triple crown victories, of which beating England was just one leg.

Like I said above I am bitterly disappointed that we failed to nail the GS in 2001/2 (Beating England and France and losing to Scotland) and 2007 (78th minute Clerc try after a failure to collect a restart). We should have won the competition those years.

Other than that up until recent times I don't feel we really underachieved bar the 2007 RWC faisco.

The thing that I find frustrating in the last few years is that there haven´t been a few teams consistently playing well and making it a proper title race. England did enough to win last time but there wasn´t any genuine contender and very few stand out performances. For example, what if Ireland had played the way they did and England had put up a better fight. Sure you have to congratulate Ireland for not allowing the game to shift to England´s strengths but it would be nice to see two or three teams competing more evenly.

Obviously the calendar dictates a team´s performance to some extent but back-to-back wins by France and England show it´s possible to play well consistently. I love the variety of the 6N but sometimes I wish teams like Wales and Ireland for example would lift their game more regularly. We all know they can do it but is the rollercoaster ride ultimately a true reflection of where they are in the rankings and we shouldn´t expect too much?

I certainly hope not. Wales, France, Ireland all had good things to take from the World Cup. England pride will be hurt by their performance. Wouldn´t it be great to see all four teams make a true contest of this 6N? I respect the Grand Slam as an achievement but often I´d much prefer to see not just mathematical possibilities of winning in the final match but a more consistent spread of performances at the top of the table.

Before you cast me off as somebody dismissing the 6N, tell me your standout games of the 6N in the last few years? I´m not asking you to compare them against the 3N. I´d just be interested to know when your team performed well and they earned their victory the hard way. Many talk about Wales vs Scotland a few years ago. Certainly a game that went down to the wire and both sides scored lots of tries, but was it truly a memorable game in terms of performance that you think represents what your team is capable of?

God I love the Six Nations - more than any other tournament

I'd love to watch Wales play someone away some day. Was thinking about going to Dublin but the flights were 3 x the norm !

Yeah Ireland should have won in '02 and and '07. They blew it against Scotland in '02. Their own fault. Cr@p performance. In '07 I think we were unlucky. It was a horrible bounce of a ball that gave Clerc the chance to end out Grand Slam hopes. Which he of course took. I'd also say the last minute TMO decision to award France a try against Scotland was wrong. How could he give it when no angle showed the ball. That's what handed France the championship on points difference, at Ireland's expense.

Anyway the 6 Nations normally gives us at least one really memorable game. There's far to many poor performances and poor games though. The Heineken Cup has been the best rugby tournament in Europe for quite a while.

However there's good young players coming through in most countries and three nations will be under new coaches. So hopefully all 6 nations will help five up each others standards and we'll have a new, better era in the 6 Nations.

That´s a good call Feckless. It´s a great comp the Heineken Cup. With more teams, there´s also more variety of styles. The knockout nature is better than the Super comp as that has got too expansive.

Often though the call is made that a player is playing fantastic club rugby and should be in the team. But too often that player can´t make the step up to test rugby.

The World Cup showed that there is no appreciable gap. What happens too often though is sides affected by mental demons. There should be no reason why Ireland can´t beat France away for example. Sometimes history and tradition can be your team´s downfall.

Planet Rugby are holding the same POLL...

http://www.planetrugby.com/poll/results/0,26151,308228,00.html

Wales 549 votes
France 509
Ireland 359
Italy 255
England 181
Scotland 56

Those Welsh are big fans of voting. Must be all the practice from watching X-Factor etc! They loves it in the Valleys

Ireland on 4% of the vote! If that is a true reflection of the general feeling about Ireland's chances then watch out everyone else. Not much has changed since last year. Why would it? Ireland have not suddenly dropped to also-rans, but if the opposition think they have, all the better.

The HC is still showing the strength of the Irish Provinces. Just because BOD is out doesn't mean they will fall apart. Sure he is a loss but there is plenty of young talent waiting to come through. Paul O'Connell showed imperious form against the Scarletts and Heaslip is looking back to his best.

Write them off at your peril.

England. Don't know why just have a feeling.

mankiaow wrote:Ireland on 4% of the vote! If that is a true reflection of the general feeling about Ireland's chances then watch out everyone else. Not much has changed since last year. Why would it? Ireland have not suddenly dropped to also-rans, but if the opposition think they have, all the better.

The HC is still showing the strength of the Irish Provinces. Just because BOD is out doesn't mean they will fall apart. Sure he is a loss but there is plenty of young talent waiting to come through. Paul O'Connell showed imperious form against the Scarletts and Heaslip is looking back to his best.

Write them off at your peril.

I agree looking at HEC results both teams are getting, the way they are playing and the depth in their provincial teams Ireland will be a great team at the Six nations. The way Irish teams are playing rugby is hard to play against.

I think it will be a huge test for Ireland. The first game against Wales in Dublin will be a humdinger, I know Wales tonked us in The WC(deservedly so). But, not to take away from their achievements, I think both teams are closer than that result suggests, especially with Ireland having home advantage.

It's the reverse situation with England, Ireland put them to the sword last 6N but you wouldn't bet your house on them winning at Twickenham. They also have to go to Paris...enough said.

Without the focus of the WC, I just think Kidney might give them a bit more freedom of expression, which could mean more of what we saw in that English game.

Paris is a doddle. One of the few games England will win, imo.

Not for Ireland.

maestegmafia wrote:

mankiaow wrote:Ireland on 4% of the vote! If that is a true reflection of the general feeling about Ireland's chances then watch out everyone else. Not much has changed since last year. Why would it? Ireland have not suddenly dropped to also-rans, but if the opposition think they have, all the better.

The HC is still showing the strength of the Irish Provinces. Just because BOD is out doesn't mean they will fall apart. Sure he is a loss but there is plenty of young talent waiting to come through. Paul O'Connell showed imperious form against the Scarletts and Heaslip is looking back to his best.

Write them off at your peril.

I agree looking at HEC results both teams are getting, the way they are playing and the depth in their provincial teams Ireland will be a great team at the Six nations. The way Irish teams are playing rugby is hard to play against.

Yawn yawn. All we heard in the build up to the world cup quarter final was how good Ireland are because their provinces play well. Same old BS. Not expecting much from them to be honest until the latter half of the tournament where Declan would have hopefully (for their sake) introduced some new blood into the team.

Same old BS from Wales last weekend. So not much changed there either.

dont tar all us welsh the same.
personally i would love to say wales and my heart says that (surprisingly i know!) and i dont like people saying wales makes me nervous
but my head says france, new coach got to final of wc playing rubbish...
cant rule out england despite bad wc and everything- caretaker coach has nothing to lose
ireland- bod is a loss but cant write them off
scotland- bad wc but possibly some new QF players coming in to help
Italy- teams doing ok in pro 12, new coach- who knows...

mankiaow wrote:Same old BS from Wales last weekend. So not much changed there either.

What was that? I didn't hear anyone claim we would beat Australia because our Regions hadn't lost a game in the opening two rounds. We did hear that Ireland would beat Wales in the world cup because the Provinces had won a few heineken cups though.

it is far too early for this sort of poll. no one can make a predictions, there is simply too much rugby between now and feb. lots could change in the next couple of months.

the poll should have been, 'who do you want to win the 6n'

who will win? it could be anyone, but i will say that i doubt it will be italy.

Morgannwg wrote:

mankiaow wrote:Same old BS from Wales last weekend. So not much changed there either.

What was that? I didn't hear anyone claim we would beat Australia because our Regions hadn't lost a game in the opening two rounds. We did hear that Ireland would beat Wales in the world cup because the Provinces had won a few heineken cups though.

I think you are missing my point...I was refering to the rugby.

Oh, well do you think it was of similar standard or better than the dross Ireland served up going into and during the World Cup? (we'll exclude the australia game from this because I know how you like to clutch on to it).

You just seem to have an unhealthy obsession with having a dig at Ireland.
You should read back some of your comments and see if there is any justification for half of them. Most of them are below the belt, without any foundation and frankly, very juvenile.

Where as you seem to have an unhealthy obsession where you turn my comments about Irelands players into me having a pop. It is a noticeable fact that some of Irelands regular internationals have become too old, slow and predictable. Is there anything wrong with mentioning that perhaps the squad could do with a few changes ready for the world cup?

You are entitled to your opinion, however misguided.

If I picked Ireland to win a Grand Slam because the Provinces have won Heineken Cups in the past would that be misguided?

Actually irish teams won both HC and GS in 2009.

It was well deserved aswell.

Good of you to say so. I had one of my best weekends ever at the HC final in Edinburgh.

Kia - complicated analogies from you, but all worth it.

Andy's selection is going to be absolutely critical for Scotland this year. The upcoming Glasgow/Edinburgh double header should be a showcase for Scottish talent and there are a huge number of youngsters in every position with the exception of the tight 5 that could be in a 6N starting XV. Will Robinson be brave enough to choose them? History would suggest that he isn't, but the early world cup exit and a new supportive CEO at the SRU should push him to realise that he has nothing to lose. Denton, Hogg, Jones and Harley are all ready and I wouldn't be disappointed to see an all Edinburgh centre pairing at the moment, especially given De Luca's ownership of Jamie Roberts a week ago.

Wales are in a strange place at the moment. By all accounts, they should be the only team to challenge France this year but they seem unsettled. That said, with their back row intact and a great set of backs, whilst they won't win a streetfight in dirty weather (second rows still do not match the quality of the rest of the team) they should have too much for the rest of the home nations and critically have France at home, where they will definitely fancy their chances.

The really interesting thing about this tournament is that nobody really knows where England and (to a lesser extent) Ireland are going to be. Ireland could win a Grand Slam based on the current form of their most pivotal club players. I don't think that O'Driscoll will be as much of a miss as everyone thinks.

Hopefully England's temporary coaches will realise that they have nothing to lose by choosing exactly whomever the hell they wish and can pack their boiler room with combinations that actually work for a change. They could do a lot worse than starting to build a pack around Dowson and a backline around Farrell. I hope that they do.

Call me pessimistic but with our second row crisis i can't see us winning this year, especially having Ireland in Dublin first up.
Throughout the years i've seen how much of an effect even just one injury to a starting player can have on us. With two of our starting locks out i fear for our lineout.
I have a feeling Ireland will do well this year. With Scotland being the dark horse, if they can win against England first up then i could see them doing well.

gowales wrote:With Scotland being the dark horse

Here we go again! Dark horses normally finish 5th

go,

If we can get win in Dublin then it will set us up well.

Charteris is only one who has been ruled out fully so far, AWJ might still make it, Davies is fit and Evans though took knock next week had very good game against Ausralia.

i hate these things. i always reckon wales will do better than fourth but never want to say it incase i jinx it, and then wales comes fourth anyway.

wales to come fourth. (we'll get the wooden spoon now wont we)

england will win it

If Wales win in Ireland I fancy them to do the slam....if they lose I don't.....