Tsonga - A Tserious challenger?

Jo Wilfred Tsonga - we all love to watch him play right? He's got the shots. He's got the charisma. He's at a career high. But we all know he can go AWOL during a match, or just not turn up at all.

Should he be regarded as a real challenger for the GS's next year?

He's 26 years old. Have there been any first-time slam winners at the age of 26? Can't think of any. Maybe one or two.
Grand slam pedigree - One GS final at the AO, nearly 4 years ago.
Career titles - 7. 5 of which have been indoors
Career finals - 5. 3 of which have been indoors

In short, history and his most successful surface are very much stacked against him. I don't hold out much hope of Tsonga winning his maiden slam in 2012. Would be nice if he did though.

Yes. Nothing to add really. Just maybe it would do him a lot of good if he could take the ball earlier...though that requires great confidence. If he surfs one of those confidence wave, I certainly believe he can win a slam ..as early as next year...next month even.

Realistically? 10 to 15% chance. Pretty good actually.

Yes, the upcoming AO is probably his best chance. He should have more confidence than most other players going into it. After that he'll be 27 and I think his chances are less at the FO or Wimby anyway.

I see him as a serious threat to beat any of the top 4 players along with Berdych and Soderling. I just can't see any of them beating 2 of the top 4 players in the same event. Which is what I think you have to do, to win a slam.

Tennis History may be stacked against him, but history is not always a clear guide to the future. Given his talent I would never count him out. He also seems to be working on the mental part of his game more and some victories against Federer in recent past seem to have installed self-belief in him. Nowadays, when he walks into the court against the tops guys, he believes that he can win against them whereas he may not have had that belief, say, a year or two earlier.

Tsonga - A Tserious challenger?

As good as Tsonga is, not a big chance unless he improves even better than this year. He has the ability and the talent, he has improved mentally as well but still lacks the high level consistency of the top 4. As your stats shows, he does enjoy playing indoors which are supposed to be fast most times so he enjoys faster surfaces. Ironically, his best perfmances have come at the medium pace Australian Open instead of the faster US Open surface. So his best bet is at the AO where he most players might not be in hot form as the season just begun and he could catch them by suprise. He made the finals there before and it has been his most consistent slam. He is becoming a threat at Wimbledon to with improving results since 2010 but his chances are small after AO i'll think.

A few examples of 26 year old's who won their first slam at that age:
1) 26 years, 30 days John Newcombe 1970 Wimbledon
2) 26 years, 53 days Ilie Năstase 1972 U.S. Open
3) 26 years, 214 days Manuel Orantes 1975 U.S. Open
4) 26 years, 310 days Thomas Johansson 2002 Australian Open
5) 26 years, 350 days Albert Costa 2002 French Open

So it shows it is possible!

Not with the odds stacked so much against an attacking player. <10%,

Yes the AO is slow but it can work in his favour as he can hit through the slow courts.

It will be interesting to see whether the AO decides to speed up or leave as is.

He should still be able to, but I just can't see it. He rarely plays his best for long enough against any of the Top 4, never mind having to do that twice

However, if you got a Slam where Nadal was injured and Nole unfit, then you'd have to consider him

I haven't followed Tsonga that closely but I get the feeling that he's shown this year in the second half a consistency that he hasn't had before. Hopefully he realises that he can beat anyone and continues to move forward with that attitude. He could easily have had too much for Fed at the WTF. I hope his nerves just improve, perhaps that's all it is.