The Triangular Rivalry

Once upon a time there was Connors and Borg. Later they were joined by McEnroe. That for me was the last great triangular rivalry. All defeating each other and sharing the spoils of Slam success. In and around them were Lendl and Wilander after Borg retired and later Becker and Edberg who then saw out McEnroe and Connors towards the end of their careers

Now we have Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. All 3 right now at the pinnacle of the sport. Federer with 16, Nadal with 10 and now Djokovic with 5. Djokovic is the brute force right now. Federer seems to be the only player who can trouble Djokovic. Nadal over and over defeats Federer and now Djokovic is conquering Nadal. It really is triangular in such a unique way. Enthralling because you feel Nadal will beat Federer at the Slams, Djokovic will beat Nadal at the Slams and Federer will beat Djokovic at the Slams.

If I could quantify the play in todays final it would be 80% cat and mouse defending and 20% gutsy attacking play. Djokovic is dominating Nadal in both areas. He would gladily sit on the baseline and behind and hit it out with him. Nadal is no longer the heavyweight of the baseline rallies. In the attacking stakes again Djokovic has more weight and precision than Nadal. When Nadal attacks he becomes even more vulnerable. Similar to Federer against Nadal. When Federer downs tools and goes out all aggressive, Nadal picks him off. Even after 4 sets Nadal seemed reluctant to go on the attack and when he broke in 5th I thought it was game set and match, Djokovic turned it around and Nadal became zombie like similar to 2011 and was hit out of the match.

This defeat will hurt Nadal like hell. He will look at that match and think in his semi with Murray that Djokovic would limp on to court today. And even in a 5 setter he could not take Djokovic out in 4/5 sets. Nadal will feel the same frustration that Federer experiences with him when they play. It makes it the more interesting that if Federer and Djokovic meet, and Federer prevails, Nadal will wonder how the hell he wins and he can't. Simply Djokovic attacks more than Nadal. When Federer and Djokovic collide they pound out the winners and Djokovic will step back into conservative mode when he is back in the match or even controlling it. Nadal heavily relies on defence which is no longer a weapon against the Serb. Federer can exploit Djokovic if Djokovic chooses an all out attack approach.

I for one cannot wait for the next chapter in this Triangular Saga.

Nadal wasn't too far away from beating Djokovic today, and Djokovic can definitely beat Federer in a slam.
Good article nonetheless, intriguing stuff.

It's nt really triangular.

Right now, without a handicap like today I rate the probability of a win between any two as;

Djokovic/Nadal 95%
Nadal/Federer 80%
Djokovic/Federer 60%

Well Fed needs to be in the top 2 to get in order to occasionally benefit, otherwise Novak and Rafa are going to be the benefactors in this arrangement. I saw it the same way as well.

bogbrush wrote:It's nt really triangular.

Right now, without a handicap like today I rate the probability of a win between any two as;

Djokovic/Nadal 95%
Nadal/Federer 80%
Djokovic/Federer 60%

Nadal was far far far close to beating Novak than Fed to Nadal. As for tiredness, Djokovic is superhuman in that respect.

The record shows that in the last 3 years Federer is a lot closer to Nadal than Nadal is to Djokovic.

Novak has the edge on both guys. It isn't triangular more like one angular. Murray could be a guy that steps up and messes up the mathematics of this equation.

So really we could predict the winner by looking at the draw-

scenarios:
1) semis - Djokovic def Murray , Nadal def Fed; Winner in Final =Djok

2) semis - Fed def Djok , Nadal def Murray; Winner in Final = Nadal

If the rankings were to change-

3) semis - Djok def Nadal , Fed def Murray ; Winner in Final = Fed

And so to conclude this hypothesis, whoever gets Murray in the semis wins. Neat. It is certainly possible

If Craig sees this you're toast.

That is unless Murray starts playing to his potential.

More like a toblerone surely?

Lots of run of the mill players in the centre with Novak, Rafa and Roger round the edges.

Hmm think I'll go get one

Murray will improve I think you guys are taking a way too static view of the tennis world. Roger isn't always going to be as good as he is now and murray is looking like he will get better.

HarpoMars wrote:So really we could predict the winner by looking at the draw-

scenarios:
1) semis - Djokovic def Murray , Nadal def Fed; Winner in Final =Djok

2) semis - Fed def Djok , Nadal def Murray; Winner in Final = Nadal

If the rankings were to change-

3) semis - Djok def Nadal , Fed def Murray ; Winner in Final = Fed

And so to conclude this hypothesis, whoever gets Murray in the semis wins. Neat. It is certainly possible

I have to confess your logic seems fualtless

Murray at the moment is nowhere the top 3. Even if he won 1 Slam, he still has a long way to go. Yes he can defeat these guys at Masters and ATP Tour level and even compete with them at Slam level, he needs that Slam success to force himself into the equation.

Well I'll stick to this theory for now and see how it goes
But it means that Fed won't win another slam unless Nadal and Djokovic are split up and he gets Murray
hmm maybe not then...

I think Fed is pretty unlucky ina sense cause had he not had Nadal on his draw, he woudl have had a good chance to win that AO. He needs to make room for Murray to overtake Nadal or simply overtake Nadal soon.

Iwoudl have fancied his chance v a not 100% Djoko. Djoko's shots were quite average today from the little I saw. Good enough for Nadal but not Federer.

bogbrush wrote:It's nt really triangular.

Right now, without a handicap like today I rate the probability of a win between any two as;

Djokovic/Nadal 95%
Nadal/Federer 80%
Djokovic/Federer 60%

This is in the right ball park. Assuming we're talking about slams I think my % might be 80, 85 and 65 so pretty close agreement.

It's a good article and a nice idea about this triangular rivalry. I would love it if they all shared the spoils more equally. But "Federer will beat Djokovic at the Slams" just isn't correct. In 2011 Djokovic won that 2-1 and also won their prior meeting in 2010. You have to look back over several years to establish a Federer superiority over Djokovic in slams but even if you do that the triangularity doesn't work because if you go back far enough Nadal still has the positive slam head to head vs Djokovic as well.

Djokovic is the clear no 1 and Federer is the clear no 3. Would be nice if Federer beats Djokovic at the FO or Wimbledon and wins it, then your argument might be right.

Apart from this central flaw, it was a good article though. Thought provoking and with many good comments.

bogbrush wrote:If Craig sees this you're toast.

Not at all, the poster has his opinion and others have theirs.

I will sit back and watch what happens rather than posting my presumptions on it.

Henman Bill wrote:

bogbrush wrote:It's nt really triangular.

Right now, without a handicap like today I rate the probability of a win between any two as;

Djokovic/Nadal 95%
Nadal/Federer 80%
Djokovic/Federer 60%

This is in the right ball park. Assuming we're talking about slams I think my % might be 80, 85 and 65 so pretty close agreement.

It's a good article and a nice idea about this triangular rivalry. I would love it if they all shared the spoils more equally. But "Federer will beat Djokovic at the Slams" just isn't correct. In 2011 Djokovic won that 2-1 and also won their prior meeting in 2010. You have to look back over several years to establish a Federer superiority over Djokovic in slams but even if you do that the triangularity doesn't work because if you go back far enough Nadal still has the positive slam head to head vs Djokovic as well.

Djokovic is the clear no 1 and Federer is the clear no 3. Would be nice if Federer beats Djokovic at the FO or Wimbledon and wins it, then your argument might be right.

Apart from this central flaw, it was a good article though. Thought provoking and with many good comments.

My question remains as to has Djokovic defeated Federer in a GS final? No. Djokovic has put himself amongst them 2 in the last 2 years.

You must also remember that Connors and Borg were embroilled in a rivalry from 1975 onwards and it took McEnroe all of 4 years to put himself in that bracket with them. As you can see there are similarities there like there is now with Nadal and Federer and now Djokovic in the frame.

In fairness, Djokovic has had the better of Federer in 3 of their last 4 slam meetings (though they were all close matches with exception of 2011 Oz Open). The only time they met in slam final was in 2007 when Djokovic was new on the scene and pretty much a kid. It was evident even then that he could trouble Federer. In that final, Djokovic had 3 set points on his serve in opening set and had set points in the 2nd set too. Could have been very interesting though not suggesting he would have necessarily won.

Federer knew how lucky he was to escape in straight sets that day against an opponent who was very young and new on the scene. Since then, Djokovic still has huge respect for him but certainly does not fear him. Their slam head to head is 5-4 to Fed but crucially Djoko has won 3 of the last 4.

People say Fed could easily have won at US open but you could also say that had Djoko served out for 4th set in French last year, he would almost certainly have had the momentum to win in 5th

Fantastic rivalry between these three players though and congrats to Murray on his recent performances too, very impressive

I'd say Nadal vs. Federer in any slam is close to 90% - a Federer win would require a sustained period of brilliance that I believe is beyond him now. The one chink in Nadal's armoury may be if Djokovic gets into his head so badly that it affects him overall - Djoko was close to that last year but Nadal re-grouped. That effect would not work in a final vs. Fed, only an SF.

I also think Nadal is a lot further away from Djokovic than the Aus Open final would suggest. The question for Nadal is what can he do to win. He knows he can't win by trying to shorten the points because Djokovic can get his best stuff back, and he also knows that Djokovic can't be outlasted.

Fed vs. Djoko is the far more interesting rivalry but it's likely to swing in Djoko's favour this year.

The biggest unknown quantity is Murray, and I'd suggest that like Federer his biggest problem is with Nadal. I think he may be edging closer.