Wouldn't Mind An Isner Win AND Race to be 1 After US Open

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Many years from now, Roger Federer will be sat around the fire with his grandchildren and he will regale them with stories of two imposters: triumph and disaster. When they ask "but Grandpa, what was your one biggest regret", surely he might respond with a deep sigh "Losing the 2012 Indian Wells final. It surely destroyed everything I fought for."

Of course, that's nonsense. My point is that this is a really big match, but only for one of the two players involved. There's a lot of Rog/Rafa threads but let's move on and give Isner some credit and have a discussion about him, and the final.

There's a lot of talk about Isner really arriving on the scene and moving up the rankings and going on from here. I could be wrong, but I don't buy it. I think, when I watch him, he looks like he's already maximised his talent. Also, he may look like he's just walked off the set of Saved By The Bell or American Pie but did you realise he is actually 27 next month? Very few tennis players peak at a later age - at least in terms of ability to acheive results vs the ever improving competition. So when is Isner's peak. Well, I'd say it's now. And I mean right now. This weekend.

Realistically, how many chances like this is he going to get? No less than the last 16 masters have been eagerly gobbled up by top 4 ranked players (including one for Robin Soderling who snuck the 4 after taking Paris). Meanwhile, John Isner has made one QF and one SF before at this level. At slam level he has made one quarter. I don't see him ever winning a slam. I see him winning 0 or 1 masters in his whole career. This is it for Isner. This is as important a match for him as a slam final is for the big four.

If Federer loses, so what. Yes it would be nice for him to get a masters series. He only won Paris in recent times and that was against a weakened field. Prior to that we need to go back to Cincinatti 2010. But even so, he has got Rotterdam and Dubai, hardly tin pot tournaments, in the bank already. It would also be nice for him to win 2 tournaments in a row that the no 1 player participated in, beating his conquerer on both occassions. What he really needs though is a slam and for me a win against one of the other top players, especially Nadal, was more important at this stage than a tournament win. It would be nice for him to tie Rafa at 19 for masters series wins today, but it's not a big record, and it's one Rafa will probably take back at some stage anyway.

Isner seems like a nice guy to me, so good luck to him. I wouldn't go as far to say as I am actually supporting him to win. I am a Roger fan, and I will probably be edging towards him when it really comes down to it. Also, I'm not predicting he will actually do it either. I am in no hurry to rush to the bookies to get the currently best available odds of 4-1: which rate him as having a 20% chance. To be honest, I see Federer 2-0, but then again I foresaw Djokovic 2-0 yesterday. Isner's performance did surprise me but can he really repeat it?

Interesting to note, if Federer wins no-one will have a positive head to head against him this season, but an Isner win makes it 2-0. On another side note, yesterday the official website noted that "The 30 year old leads the circuit with a 21-2 mark in 2012". Well if he wins Indian Wells on top of Dubai and Rotterdam for 3 tournaments, who is having the best season so far, Federer, or Djokovic with only one tournament, but a slam?

Yes, Big John is an underrated player and the game needs some sign of life outside the top 4.

I wish him the best........ from tomorrow.

Yes, I would not mind Isner to win. Those SVers need to believe they can carry on playing that game.

However, I do believe Federer can get the number 1 spot back and I think he deserves a few more weeks. So for that reason, I'll be backing Federer....but can live with both results.

You always believe he can get it back. Surely he missed a bigger chance in 2010. He's only got an outside chance now. He needs one of the middle slams probably to get into the argument.

I like both the players attitude, character and game style, I am not gonna route anybody but for sure will watch the match without any tension or fuss.

While a Roger win puts him on par with the top 2 to become the no.1 again sometime around USO this year, on the other hand Isner deserves some serious title for all his work ethics, let the better player on the day win, as we dont have a tie in tennis.

Anyone able to show the points of the top 3 since after the US Open? This is what Federers hopes are all about and it would be interesting to see whether he has a decent shot.

He must have accumulated the max points since USO11, so when we come close to that date, he could have a fair shot at it.

Apart from at the AO

Yes, I honesltly don;t think Fed would have lost v a under par Djoko.

I'll spend 15 minutes on it...

Let's go with an "if Federer wins today" analysis. If I'm wrong, deduct 400....
Let's go with counting all 500s and 250s. Normally they don't play much over the limit so this will create a very small error.
Let's go with ignoring Davis Cup. Too complex otherwise.
You want me to start the week after the US Open...
Let's assume there are only 3 realistic challengers...

Federer

Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000

Total 5,810

EDIT: Not sure if Fed can count 3 500s at once? Can't remember the rules here.

Fed didn't win Doha this year. He withdrew before the semi.

yes I know, we double posted. I corrected it already. I am only going to work it out roughly though, so differences of a few hundred are within the marginn of error anyway due to uncountables and Davis cup.

Nadal

Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360

Total 2240

Djokovic

Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360

Total 3100

Fed 5810 since US Open, Djokovic 3100, Nadal 2240.

I might be a bit generous to Fed when Davis Cup and countables are factored in, by ~500 or so?

To be fair it looks good for Fed, but it was similar in 2010 and 2011 as well and he didn't make it.

Go Isner! the OP is correct I think Isner probably is at or near his peak and this will be his best chance of winning a Masters. He played college tennis thus not turning pro till later. One thing he has working for him is that speed really isn't part of his game and he will always have the power so maybe he can continue to play strongly for a few more years.

Excellent stuff HB. It confirms in my mind that to make #1 Federer really needs to win a Slam. If he d that he'd have 7810 points and would need only to mop up another 3000 from finals and semis to probably take it.

Quite right too.

With the points Roger has accumulated in the non-slam events he stands a good chance of regaining the world number one with just one grandslam win. That however is the 64000 dollar question. It is very hard to be number one without having a grandslam title in that year. The only guy to even manage the number #1 ranking without a slam for a few weeks was Marcelo Rios.

It really shocks me hw much of their totals that Djokovic and Nadal ave got from the AO. Not a lot else is there?

socal1976 wrote:With the points Roger has accumulated in the non-slam events he stands a good chance of regaining the world number one with just one grandslam win. That however is the 64000 dollar question. It is very hard to be number one without having a grandslam title in that year. The only guy to even manage the number #1 ranking without a slam for a few weeks was Marcelo Rios.

I'm quite certain he won't do it without one. It might be different if I thought guys like JMDP, Tsonga or whoever may spoil and win them but in reality what Federer doesn't win will be taken by Djokovic or Nadal. Maybe Murray might muddy the water?

bogbrush wrote:Excellent stuff HB. It confirms in my mind that to make #1 Federer really needs to win a Slam. If he d that he'd have 7810 points and would need only to mop up another 3000 from finals and semis to probably take it.

Quite right too.

Or he might not need to if Djoko and Rafa don't win a slam either ....unlikely certainly but Murray Delpo and othres can create surprises.

Yes BB, as you pointed out if Fed doesn't win a slam that most likely means it is going to Nadal and or Djoko. Right now the race for number #1 is very interesting because between now and the US both Nadal and Novak have a great deal of points to defend and the only guy that can really gain ground of the top 3 is fed. That being said fed will have to translate his success onto a grandslam. Still think his best shot is wimby despite the complaints about the pace of those courts.

This is all predicted on a win tonight though, and given his form yesterday Isner isn't just turning up to make up the numbers.

I think Isner peaked against Nole. That was a pretty taxing semi for the big guy, and it would be easy for him to have a feeling of complacency settle in after breaking into the top ten and beating the world #1. At least subconsciously.

Even if FEderer loses it's only 400 points gone. The slam semis and finals will have the biggest effect on the ranking, as it should be.

Well, not long now. Isner has the sort of game I admire more than enjoy.

Rankings Points Since US Open (Including Miami)..or race to be no 1 after the US Open.

Federer 5855, Djokovic 4100, Nadal 2600

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
TOTAL 5855

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
TOTAL 4100

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
TOTAL 2600

Nadal really has to outscore Djokovic in the clay season to have a chance.
Djokovic's Miami victory underscores the fact that Federer probably needs to win 1 slam or outperform Djokovic in 2 slams to have a chance.

It looks like Federer is going to overtake Nadal soon. The clay season is going to be key.

Tenez wrote:It looks like Federer is going to overtake Nadal soon. The clay season is going to be key.

so where would you like to see Federer: Novak's or Nadal's half?

Doesn't really matter. It's tough work regardless. Federer will lose 3 or 4 times out of 5 but on a good day he can beat them both, clay or not clay.

Tenez wrote:Doesn't really matter. It's tough work regardless. Federer will lose 3 or 4 times out of 5 but on a good day he can beat them both, clay or not clay.

I look forward to Monte Carlo. I wish I could go one day.....

Nadal really has to outscore Djokovic in the clay season to have a chance.

Hmm I think Nole will skip either Madrid or Rome if he ends up winning the Monte Carlo. Winning Madrid AND Rome back to back could have burned him a bit for his under performance in the RG.

There are 2 full weeks gap in between Monte Carlo and Madrid (the second of these having the Serbian tournament). Then Rome comes straight after.
Then a week off. Then FO.
He shouldn't play all 3 masters and the Serbian tournament if he keeps getting to finals. If he keeps making finals he needs to miss one I'd say.

Maybe Madrid if he wins MC and Serbia or reaches both finals. But he is the champion at Madrid.

Points updated to include Monte Carlo and Barcelona:

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
TOTAL 5855

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
Monte Carlo 600
TOTAL 4700

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
TOTAL 4100

Another article on this theme
http://www.mytennislounge.com//comments/index.php?shell=4974

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
Madrid 1000
TOTAL 6855

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
Monte Carlo 600
Madrid 180
TOTAL 4880

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 90
TOTAL 4190

Notes: Murray is on 4080 so he is in the race too.
Nadal has his work cut out to end the year in the top 2.
Federer really does have a good chance to acheive no 1 after the US Open. Maybe better than 50/50.

I think he needs to:
---win 1 of his next 2 meetings with Djokovic
---win 1 of the next 3 slams

yep, that ought to do it.

Bill, what if he entered Shanghai?

Can't believe Nadal is in this shape halfway through the clay season.

I'm pretty sure this table will look a lot closer after the Olympics. I agree, Fed's chances of being No.1 will be virtually assured if he takes one of the next 3 slams. What will increase Fed's chances is if Djokovic loses either Rome or the Canadian Masters and Wimbledon. In that situation the No.1 position might go to either Fed or Nadal unless of course Djokovic wins RG.

True; it looks very tough for Federer BUT if this recent wobbling from Djokovic and Nadal shows up in a Slam it would fall into his lap.

He needs to win a Slam, as should be the case for a #1.

If Federer plays Shanghai that could give him a boost. Be interesting if the ranking changed hands a few times during the season, and tournaments like Shanghai actually had #1 at stake to boost their marketing! Would be cool to see a nice finish for year end no 1 with it actually at stake in London at the world tour finals. I don't think it has been yet.

yeah your right HB it hasn't been close at all 2bh i think '09 was the closest it has been but i think rafa had to win every game and the tournament and roger had to have a shocker.

I got to say, it has the potential to be close until Shanghai but things will look quite different after the next 3 grand slams have been played and the Olympics and unless the slams are divided evenly between the top 3, I think one player will emerge dominant on points.

Over almost the last 9 years (since 2004), whichever player has won 2 out Roland Garros, Wimbledon & the USO, has finished the Year End No.1. This held true even in Olympic years like 2008 and 2004. So my expectation is that although it looks close, I find it highly improbably things will remain undecided as far into the season as Shanghai.

Points Updated After Rome

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
Madrid 1000
Rome 360
TOTAL 7215

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
Monte Carlo 600
Madrid 180
Rome 600
TOTAL 5480

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 90
Rome 1000
TOTAL 5190

Federer 7215
Djokovic 5480
Nadal 5190

Wait...
Why have you counted Djokovic as 1000 for Rome.

I did allocate the 600 and 1000 into the wrong players at first but it was only for 5 minutes and was quickly racing to fix it before someone commented. Bah.

Good, it's perfect now!
Thanks Bill!

Nice work HB.

With 3 slams, a 250, an Olympics and 2 HC Masters coming up before end of August(!) there's 9,000 points up for grabs...that can change the whole picture hugely!

Had Tsonga taken 1 MP against Djokovic then Federer would have gone favourite in the race to #1 after USO.

Djokovic's 4 match point saves against Tsonga could be a really significant factor, as he will now instead of I think 360 points for the FO, get I think 720, 1200 or 2000. Call this a ~1000 points gain, while blocking Federer another round as potentially to the tune of 500 more, so in effect a net gain of 1500 vs Federer could be on the cards vs Federer if he can beat him.

Djokovic really needs the win on Friday against Federer to stop Federer opening up a bigger lead. In the race between the two, there is a net of about 1,000 points at stake in this match.

I have really felt for a while that Federer will need to beat Djokovic at a slam to finish #1 after the US Open. Here is his first chance, but perhaps most difficult one. If he loses he will surely need to beat Djokovic in either their next meeting, or next slam meeting, to be #1 after the US Open.

Meanwhile Nadal, who had looked 3rd favourite for a while to be #1 after the US Open, has been catching up a little after winning 3 of the 4 clay warm up tournaments, and can make the race very even actually by claiming the French Open title.

Murray could also force his way right into contention by making at least the final, but it looks tricky for him.

Points at start of FO:
Federer 7215
Djokovic 5480
Nadal 5190

I will put a further update after the FO.