Wouldn't Mind An Isner Win AND Race to be 1 After US Open

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Many years from now, Roger Federer will be sat around the fire with his grandchildren and he will regale them with stories of two imposters: triumph and disaster. When they ask "but Grandpa, what was your one biggest regret", surely he might respond with a deep sigh "Losing the 2012 Indian Wells final. It surely destroyed everything I fought for."

Of course, that's nonsense. My point is that this is a really big match, but only for one of the two players involved. There's a lot of Rog/Rafa threads but let's move on and give Isner some credit and have a discussion about him, and the final.

There's a lot of talk about Isner really arriving on the scene and moving up the rankings and going on from here. I could be wrong, but I don't buy it. I think, when I watch him, he looks like he's already maximised his talent. Also, he may look like he's just walked off the set of Saved By The Bell or American Pie but did you realise he is actually 27 next month? Very few tennis players peak at a later age - at least in terms of ability to acheive results vs the ever improving competition. So when is Isner's peak. Well, I'd say it's now. And I mean right now. This weekend.

Realistically, how many chances like this is he going to get? No less than the last 16 masters have been eagerly gobbled up by top 4 ranked players (including one for Robin Soderling who snuck the 4 after taking Paris). Meanwhile, John Isner has made one QF and one SF before at this level. At slam level he has made one quarter. I don't see him ever winning a slam. I see him winning 0 or 1 masters in his whole career. This is it for Isner. This is as important a match for him as a slam final is for the big four.

If Federer loses, so what. Yes it would be nice for him to get a masters series. He only won Paris in recent times and that was against a weakened field. Prior to that we need to go back to Cincinatti 2010. But even so, he has got Rotterdam and Dubai, hardly tin pot tournaments, in the bank already. It would also be nice for him to win 2 tournaments in a row that the no 1 player participated in, beating his conquerer on both occassions. What he really needs though is a slam and for me a win against one of the other top players, especially Nadal, was more important at this stage than a tournament win. It would be nice for him to tie Rafa at 19 for masters series wins today, but it's not a big record, and it's one Rafa will probably take back at some stage anyway.

Isner seems like a nice guy to me, so good luck to him. I wouldn't go as far to say as I am actually supporting him to win. I am a Roger fan, and I will probably be edging towards him when it really comes down to it. Also, I'm not predicting he will actually do it either. I am in no hurry to rush to the bookies to get the currently best available odds of 4-1: which rate him as having a 20% chance. To be honest, I see Federer 2-0, but then again I foresaw Djokovic 2-0 yesterday. Isner's performance did surprise me but can he really repeat it?

Interesting to note, if Federer wins no-one will have a positive head to head against him this season, but an Isner win makes it 2-0. On another side note, yesterday the official website noted that "The 30 year old leads the circuit with a 21-2 mark in 2012". Well if he wins Indian Wells on top of Dubai and Rotterdam for 3 tournaments, who is having the best season so far, Federer, or Djokovic with only one tournament, but a slam?

reckoner wrote:The women's game from the 80s isn't really comparable for me, barry, thanks all the same!

That's my point - you've got to look somewhere that is not comparable to see similar numbers, but I reckon that notching up 300 odd weeks in today's ATP is more impressive.

Oh ok barry I misunderstood... quite agree!

barrystar wrote:

reckoner wrote:So from your calculations it looks like Fed wil definitely hit 300 weeks on 22-10-2012.

Unprecedented - TMF continues to amaze.

One needs to look to the woman's side with Navratilova at 332 weeks and Graf's Parche-assisted 377 weeks for the comparison.

We're getting to the point in the points race where if Fed gets to the final of the USO and hangs onto Basel and does decently in Paris and well @ the WTF, he stands not only a strong chance of getting the Y.E. No.1 but retaining his No.1 spot well into next year. He's only defending 720 points in the Aussie Open, so if he either holds onto that or gets to the final, he then will hold the No.1 spot until probably mid March (Dubai only has 500 points and most top players don't go to Rotterdam), so he could easily get upto 320 weeks. From that point on, it becomes tricky because IW he'd be the defending champion but he can gain points @ Miami so he could hold on till mid April but probably until Madrid, so mid May, so he could surpass 325 weeks! It all relies on him setting up the USO and the remaining tournaments reasonably well. Winning 2 or 3 out of USO, Basel, Paris & WTF is a tough ask but would mostly likely give him the #1 spot till mid May and thus more than 325 weeks.

Probably too much to hope, but it's mad isn't it?

Not at all. It's a wonderful, glorious season, and probably one that has brought a lot of joy to his fans, but I would definitely not put it as the best.

Try this simple test. Remove any of the years from 2004- 2007 from his resume, or remove this one. Which leaves his resume richer? I'd say it's removing this one, so this can't really be his greatest year.

I think this year appears richer because it's stacked atop those years and is a thrilling climax to a wondrous career. It's entirely another thing to compare this to the main act itself!

Apologies, wrong thread. Will re-post on the right thread!

Let's not forget that Pancho Gonzales was probably number 1 for more years than Federer (debatable, especially if Fed takes this year, since there weren't actual rankings) and had there been a ranking chart then he might have had as many or more weeks than Federer I believe.

I think years at number one is more interesting than weeks, since weeks is arbitrary depending on who sneaks ahead before the off season or other long breaks, or depending on whether a tournament was moved forward or backward a week could make the difference in a record. Also since years is easier to compare pre ranking era.

RACE TO US OPEN
FINAL RESULT
WINNER FEDERER

1Federer, Roger (SUI) - 11,805
2Djokovic, Novak (SRB) - 10,470
3Murray, Andy (GBR) - 8,570
4Nadal, Rafael (ESP) - 7,515