Rabo Pro 12 - Run In - 3 Games Left

Weekends results:

Munster 9 - 18 Leinster
Ulster 45 - 7 Aironi
Edinburgh 26 - 23 Scarlets
Warriors 31 - 3 Blues

So Scarlets just missed out on an important chance but managed a losing bonus point. Leinster made themselves safe while ensuring the pressure remains with Munster for their remaining games. Warrors and Ulster did what they needed getting full 5 points.

Remaining Games:
Leinster 68 --> Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a)
Ospreys 58 --> Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a)
Munster 56 --> Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h)
Warriors 56 --> Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h)
Ulster 55 --> Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a)
Scarlets 51 --> Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h)

Whoever does the best against Munster will claim the 4th spot.

Their final games are against Glasgow (4th place), Scarlets (6th place) and Ulster (5th place).

For me I dont see Ulster getting through. They realistically need 9 points from their three Irish derbys.

Leinster 68 --> Edinburgh(h) - Ulster(a) - Dragons(a) + 10 = 78
Ospreys 58 --> Blues(a) - Dragons(h) - Aironi(a) + 12 = 70
Munster 56 --> Warriors(h) - Scarlets(a) - Ulster(h) + 8 = 64
Warriors 56 --> Munster(a) - Treviso(a) - Connacht(h) + 4 = 60
Ulster 55 --> Connacht(a) - Leinster(h) - Munster(a) + 8 = 63
Scarlets 51 --> Aironi(a) - Munster(h) - Blues(h) + 15 = 66

Final table:

Leinster 78
Ospreys 70
Scarlets 66
Munster 64
Ulster 63
Warriors 60

Feic ...... mind you 5th place and a HEC final spot isn't too bad I suppose

Stag, don't forget that its not beyong the realm of possibility that Munster lose two of the three and drop out of the top four themselves...

It is of course possible. If we beat Ulster next weekend I wont care about playoffs.

Question for the Ulster fans.

Which would be a more successful season. Make it to the ERC Final and lose. Or else win the Rabo Direct Pro 12 and lose in the ERC quarters.

I think it will be tight for 4th spot. Munster v Ulster could be a winner takes all match.

I would feel terrible if we KO'd Munster from the Rabo as well. I hate kicking a man when he's down.

I can see the IRFU putting pressure on Ulster to field a weakened team for that one.

red_stag wrote:Which would be a more successful season. Make it to the ERC Final and lose. Or else win the Rabo Direct Pro 12 and lose in the ERC quarters.

HEC final definitely.

Some silverware would be nice but the HEC is where its at. I want to go as far as possible in that and would sacrifice a Rabo play off spot. 5th/6th isn't a bad return given how poorly we started.

I'm still hoping for a Rabo/HEC double though .

roddersm wrote:I can see the IRFU putting pressure on Ulster to field a weakened team for that one.

Certainly hope so Rodders. I dont want to lose both.

If Leinster beat Edinburgh with a BP at home (not impossible given their sketchy away form – 1 win from 9, conceded TBPs to Munster and Ulster) then we’re pretty much home free. We’d be 15 points clear with Ospreys having to win all 3 games with a BP (they only won with their first TBP of the season at the weekend).

We might well send the academy to Ravenhill.

red_stag wrote:

roddersm wrote:I can see the IRFU putting pressure on Ulster to field a weakened team for that one.

Certainly hope so Rodders. I dont want to lose both.

Was just going to say Mickado - I would be surprised if we play a full strength Leinster at home, if we can get 5 at Connacht I think we will make it.

In all seriousness though last year I realised that while the Rabo is coming on a long way its not taken all that seriously.

Munster got knocked out in pool stages for first time in about a dozen years. However they walked the Pro 12 coming first and beating the Ospreys and our evil twins Leinster becoming champions . . . . . . . .for many people this was a disaster season and Munster were on the decline.

Mickado wrote:If Leinster beat Edinburgh with a BP at home (not impossible given their sketchy away form – 1 win from 9, conceded TBPs to Munster and Ulster) then we’re pretty much home free. We’d be 15 points clear with Ospreys having to win all 3 games with a BP (they only won with their first TBP of the season at the weekend).

We might well send the academy to Ravenhill.

Music to my ears!

clivemcl wrote:

Mickado wrote:If Leinster beat Edinburgh with a BP at home (not impossible given their sketchy away form – 1 win from 9, conceded TBPs to Munster and Ulster) then we’re pretty much home free. We’d be 15 points clear with Ospreys having to win all 3 games with a BP (they only won with their first TBP of the season at the weekend).

We might well send the academy to Ravenhill.

Music to my ears!

That’s just one possibility Clive.

What could also happen is we lose to the Blues and put all our eggs in the rabo basket.
OR
We beat the Blues and look to give our front liners another “hit out” before the HC semi.

red_stag wrote:In all seriousness though last year I realised that while the Rabo is coming on a long way its not taken all that seriously.

Munster got knocked out in pool stages for first time in about a dozen years. However they walked the Pro 12 coming first and beating the Ospreys and our evil twins Leinster becoming champions . . . . . . . .for many people this was a disaster season and Munster were on the decline.

I take it very seriously stag, I think its a brilliant tournament. However the HEC is the pinacle of club rugby in the NH and should take precedence.

I'll be seriously disappointed if we miss out on the play-offs but I'd much rather progress in the HEC.

I want both though.

Ah yea we all want both.

I'll put the question to you? What would you see as a successful season for Munster?

Would you rather win the Rabo or reach a HEC final and lose?

Personally I don't see why the winner of Ulster v Munster can't win the tournament. The only side I'd fear in the final is Leinster, and that's not a side Munster will fear.

Rodders - without a doubt reach the ERC Final and lose.

Without a shadow of a doubt.

ERC is the be and end all at the minute.

Obviously Stag with Ulster not having won Silverware since 2006 winning the Rabo would be a huge deal.

Getting in the play offs is a fine achievement I think too given the quality of the other teams.

However given our european form and the way the draw has panned out I would hope our focus in on the HEC because there is a fantastic opportunity to progress, should we beat a Munster side, who with respect, look very strong but not unbeatable even at Thomond.

Rodders - I remember when we got out of the pool stages in 2008.

Paul O'Connell said that if Munster didnt win the cup we would not only be letting ourselves down but letting down London Wasps, Clermont Auvergne and Llanelli Scarlets all of whom were teams with aspriations of winning the cup.

He said that we qualified from one of the hardest pools thrown together and it meant that we had to live upto that in the pool stages even though we had never won in Kingsholm before.

Ulster are in a similar situation having taken on Leicester Tigers and Clermont, they got through a very tough pool and should set their sights on winning it outright.

I agree Stag. Ulster can't look to next season. Last year we weren't serious contenders but this year we should be looking to win, the same as the other sides. We pushed Clermont all the way so there's no reason to put anyone else on a pedistal.

I actually think Munster may win the competition if they beat us, so there's no reason to think that we can't.... other than the fact that we can't seem to beat Leinster.....

Mickado wrote:If Leinster beat Edinburgh with a BP at home (not impossible given their sketchy away form – 1 win from 9, conceded TBPs to Munster and Ulster) then we’re pretty much home free. We’d be 15 points clear with Ospreys having to win all 3 games with a BP (they only won with their first TBP of the season at the weekend).

We might well send the academy to Ravenhill.

The only reason we would need the bonus point v Embra is if the Ospreys get a BP win in all their games. Even then we would have 2 away games to hatch a LBP.

6 5 will do v Embra.

The question is what players we want to rest v Ulster IF we have a HC semi the next week. OR (as you have said) will we want to give the 1st team a run out together.

I definitely believe we will rest a lot v Dragons IF we are still in Europe. (Big if this time as we would be away in the semi) A possible 3 hard weeks in a row follow the Dragons game.

Rodders - I can see Leinster losing in the semi final. I have my doubts about their ability to win on the road.

Have to say Im looking forward to the weekend a lot. Its inspired me to buy my first ever season tickets now that im working.

Stag between you and me ..... I don't think Leinster will make the final now either........

Which means Munster and Ulster have the carrot of maybe a Saracens or Clermont final

Can't wait for the weekend sir!

I would actually not relish the thought of playing Clermont. We've knocked them out of the HEC on two occasions, then Leinster knocked them out twice, then Ulster topped the pool over them.

They will be very hungry for revenge and I think on neutral territory they might well do it. However I would fancy Sarries to beat them.

red_stag wrote:Rodders - I can see Leinster losing in the semi final. I have my doubts about their ability to win on the road.

Have to say Im looking forward to the weekend a lot. Its inspired me to buy my first ever season tickets now that im working.

Ehh...? Thomond park?

We're all praying for Sarries. It would be infitely more winnable and we would have a lot of supporters at that one.

Mick I mean abroad. For Leinster/Munster it isnt a real away game.

I was in Dublin on Saturday and on the way up to Dublin at around 11.30 I passed the Leinster team bus driving down.

They wake up in their own bed and have a morning training session. 2 hours on the bus and then spend the rest of the day preparing in Limerick before a kick off at 19.45. Then sleep in their own bed after the match. Thats not an away match really.

It is the performances against Glasgow, Bath and Montpellier that I am basing this on. You can get used to home advantage which makes it hard when you need to play away from home.

London is less that a 2 hour flight away though

I see what you mean though, we won 2 scrappy games and eeked out a last minute draw away from home in Europe so far this year. O’Driscoll’s return cannot be understated though.

Thats very true. Him and Thorn are massive additions to the team. Above all else you have the bench to win.

Thats what a real champion team needs - a quality bench.

Its why Leinster won last weekend. Interestingly neither Munster nor Ulster really have a great bench*

*Munster sort of do but they are all starting for us due to injury. Our bench won us the match against Saints in Thomond.

red_stag wrote:Interestingly neither Munster nor Ulster really have a great bench

Paul Marshall will make you pay for that comment Stag!

red_stag wrote:Its why Leinster won last weekend. Interestingly neither Munster nor Ulster really have a great bench*

*Munster sort of do but they are all starting for us due to injury. Our bench won us the match against Saints in Thomond.

I think we do have a good bench stag and have players who can make a real impact like Paul Marshall, D'arcy, Spence/Whitten and Tuohy/Stevenson.

Provided our first choice front row can last the full game I'm very happy with the options we have on the bench.

Paul Marshall is good yes.

But lads lets be honest Ulsters bench AND Munsters one aren't in class of Leinster - last week they could call on the likes of Sean O'Brien, Isaac Boss, Cian Healy, Leo Cullen, Ian Madigan, Fergus McFadden, Sean Cronin etc.

Ian Whitten, Adam Darcy and Lewis Stevenson arent at that level. Not an a billion years.

Same with us. Ian Keatley, Tommy O'Donnell, Stephen Archer, Duncan Williams aren't going to win us matches from the bench.

No stag our bench is not as strong as Leinsters but its wrong to say we don't have a great bench.

Paul Marshall in particular is arguably the best impact player in the country and we have good depth in the 3/4s for sure.

I don't know Stag, international fame doesnt always correlate with aplayers ability within a certain team of players. The likes of Adam Darcy has come on and worked acts of sheer magic for us more than once this season. The likes of Paul Marshall and Darcy, I can honestly say make me feel that our team is not weakened one bit when the come on the field. They have both given me good reason to have this confidence in them.

Stag, you underestimate our bench. Individually they may not be in the same calibre as the Leinster players, but they serve their purpose well. Impact players. Having the likes of Marshall and D'Arcy add a bit of spark each time they come on is a huge bonus.

Getting worked up about our bench has woken up the first few butterflies in my stomach.... Going to be a nervy and very long week!

Are you heading down Clive?

The closer this match gets the more I think Ulster will win comfortably. Its a pity theres no 4 try bonus points available.

Marshall and D'Arcy are great impact players, hope D'arcy is signed up for next few years.

I thought, at the beginging of the season, that by the time Ulster got to the last 3 games (all being inter pro's) that to stand a chance we would have to be in the top 2/3 in the table, unfortuntally we're not, doesn't mean that we don't have a chance as we are the form team in the league. There will still be a surprise or two in the results before the end of the season.

Na Rods never even got tickets when the went on general sale cause I had a brain fart and totally forgot. Not sure whether to hit the pub, or stick with the old favourite, on the sofa using my dog as a stress ball.

I think Leinster have shown that they can go to pretty tough places and win. If we get through the blues and move on to the semi's I'd be confident if we had Sarries in London. I'd be somewhat expectant of a win. The south of France is one of the toughest places to go though IMO. It's just intensily hostile. I'd be hoping that Sarries win and if they do I think we will get into the final and there aren't many teams other than Tolouse and Clermont who I'd be "afriad" of.

Ulster's bench are just that a bench. really good to have them coming on when the game is open, not so good to start with for 60 odd mins when you need stability. IMO

Unfrotunately I think that loss against Edinburgh put paid to our hopes - even if we win all 3 remaining games (which is possible) but don't get bonus points in any of them (and we haven't looked like getting 4 tries many times this season) then we end up on 63 - we'd need 2 of Munster/Glasgow/Ulster to loose 2 out of their 3 games for us to get in the play offs - it's def possible that Ulster may (with 3 derbies coming up), but unlikely that Glasgow will loose to both Aironi and Connacht on the last game of the season, and Munster will be looking to win all of their games but could slip up against Ulster (we need to beat Munster, but then Ulster would need to loose against Connacht and Lenister for us to finish 3rd/4th)

Priest, you say that, but until the Edinburgh game, we'd just had 3 TBP wins in a row, so we are more than capable

I think we need to get 14 points from our last 3 game, pray that Ulster have a dreadful run in and hope that Glasgow lose to Munster.

I think that's what we'll need to finish 4th, just.

True, but I was never that confident we'd ever score the 4th try and to be honest I'd kindof forgotten it was 3 in a row - think coz it didn't feel like we'd scored 4 tries against the Blues as 2 came with gift wrapping!

And amazingly if things go as you say above and we hope Glasgow beat Munster then Munster could finish below us and we'd take 4th spot! (I think)

We don't have a great bench. We have some good players on the bench and some who are just fine.

Paul Marshall, Paddy McAllister either of Tuohy/Stevenson and Adam D'Arcy are good impact players to bring on. The likes of Adam Macklin, Brady, Faloon/Diack, Whitten are just ok.

Similar to Munster. Neither are in the same league as Leinster.

Smirnoffpriest wrote:True, but I was never that confident we'd ever score the 4th try and to be honest I'd kindof forgotten it was 3 in a row - think coz it didn't feel like we'd scored 4 tries against the Blues as 2 came with gift wrapping!

And amazingly if things go as you say above and we hope Glasgow beat Munster then Munster could finish below us and we'd take 4th spot! (I think)

I see you've cottened on to my master plan.... That would then make it Leinster, O's, Glasgow and Scarlets in the top 4. I like the look of that! (and yes, before anyone says, I know it's very doubtful!)

First of all an Ospreys fan I have to give a big well done to all (but 1) of the pro12 teams that played in the HC last weekend. You did yourself and the pro12 a great service.

For now let's get back to the race for the play offs. How does everyone see the following fixtures going?

Friday, Leinster v Edinburgh,

Saturday, Cardiff Blues v Ospreys, Connacht v Ulster, Munster v Glasgow,

Sunday, Aironi v Scarlets,

Current situation at the top;

1 Leinster 19 68
2 Ospreys 19 58
3 Munster 19 56
4 Glasgow 19 56
5 Ulster 19 55
6 Scarlets 19 51

My predictions are as follows;

Leinster 4pts
Ospreys 4pts
Ulster 4pts
Munster 4pts, Glasgow 1pt
Scarlets 4pts.

That would mean;

1 Leinster 20 72
2 Ospreys 20 62
3 Munster 20 60
4 Ulster 20 59
5 Glasgow 20 57
6 Scarlets 20 55

Hard to see the top 4 changing from there. Great ties in store.

I agree with your predictions. Spot on in my opinion. Obviously there will be at least one shock though, there always is!

Ulster Glasgow and Scarlets are all still close.
Glasgow getting a losing bonus would be huge for them away to Munster the week after Munster have been knocked out of the HCup. If they can get that losing bonus point they will be doing well and perhaps Ulster will mess up against Munster on the last weekend

My shock would be ulster losing to Connacht. Surely some of their big guns will be rested plus it will be hard for them to play to 100% with the excitement of the Hcup semi at the end of the month.

I wouldn't rule out Connacht or Aironi providing the upset this weekend. Connacht against a most likely tired/rested Ulster, and Aironi at home trying to show the FIR that they shouldn't have been ditched.

Galway is a big ask for Ulster. Not only is it a very keenly contested derby match but Ulster have only a 6 day turn around from one of the most physically exhausting games imaginable. All those tackles have to have taken their toll. A few of our players could barely get off the turf to celebrate at the final whistle.

I hope your prediction is correct though.