PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

Really looking forward to it....Good luck Padraig this week. I think it maybe a Phil vs Tiger showdown!

Great article as always Kwini

You didn't rule out Mike Weir??

excellent as always kwini.. Havent done my bets yet but as usual will probably put on half the field and get it totally wrong as always.

Thanks All,

Hi John,
I felt he came in to so many classifications that it was redundant:
"Ceremonial", "no PGA Tour wins since 2009", "walking wounded", etc, etc!

I'm looking at the forcast following yesterday's 1-2 inches of rain, and wondering to what extent the draw will influence play.
Wednesday: Warm, 30% chance of showers.
Thursday: Warm, 80F, 10 mph wind, 60% chance rain
Friday: Very cool, 50's, cloudy, 60% rain, quite breezy too, 15mph.
Saturday: Warming up, low/mid 70's, sunny, dry! Light breeze.
Sunday: High 70's, sunny. Almost calm, PERFECT!

Ah the official thread!.Snowing over here.
All seems reasonable logic should I proceed to a bookmakers ?

I would like to see a bit of wind this week, I don't want it to be fully a birdie fest.

dynamark - I'm awaiting yr fantasy pick/winner . . . .

Wind would be fine, just don't want lightening or flooding rains.

Worst thing is that, if there are any suspensions of play and resultant completion of rounds the following morning, you can bet your bottom dollar they won't be televised.

I wouldn't mind a few delays this week as I will not be able to keep updated all the way through it....So I wouldn't mind it dragging to Monday!

How times have changed being a Harrington fan this time three years, I went in with great expectation into the Masters to win, let alone to only have a hope he makes the cut let alone contend or win for that matter. Anyway, form is temporary class is permanent!

As ever Padraig's fate will be determined by how he plays the par fives; play them well and you'd feel he can contend, but he's had some rough experiences there over the years and his temporary form lapse has gone on for quite a while now!

Interesting review, kwini.

But if you don't mind, I would hope you're wrong about the final bit... and hope Phil's prediction comes true instead... Read this quote from him:

“As soft as the golf course is, you can fire at a lot of the pins. The greens are soft. I don’t want to say they are slow, but it’s just not the same Augusta. It’s wet around the greens, and there’s no fear of the course. You’ve got to attack it this week. Unless something changes… it’s going to be a birdie‑fest.
When the subtleties don’t come out, the experience of playing here in the past is not as important, because you don’t have to fear the greens and you don’t have to know where the ball will end up and you don’t have to fear certain shots because you can get up‑and‑down from the edges. Those shots are not as hard. Therefore, I think there’s a very good chance that a young player, inexperienced, fearless player that attacks this golf course can win if you don’t need to show it the proper respect."

I just hope he wasn't thinking of Keegan Bradley...

Ha Kwini! Had you figured out by no.8 so no.10 made me laugh!

Similar to Pd I think a soft Augusta could benefit the likes of Bubba and Stanley. E/w finishes of course.

My two main picks are Donald and Rose. Harder course should suit Donald more than Rose, opposite for a soft course. Cant wait to see how it all unfolds!

And we'd be half way there to a "Bradslam" !!!

Much is made of Zach Johnson's -11 for the Par 5's when he won. Realisticatty, anything worse than -6 for the week on the Par 5's and there isin't much chance of winning...............................

Yes very true about Harrington Kwini....PAR 5'S are vital!

donald loves a par 5, dont let his length fool you dudes. 4th last yeah on birdies on par 5's on the pga tour. he loves a pitch and putt!

best total putting , and has a top draw short game. Yes its donalds time

Guys

I called the brad slam first, let it be known.

chances of a bradslam only if brad pitt would've got an oscar or a golden globe...

I can't really see past Mickelson, Woods or McIlroy. They are playing very well and in Phil and Tigers case, proven over course and distance. McIlroy's form and his play here last year make him very hard to ignore too.

I am not discounting the likes of Donald or Westwood, Mahan or Watney, Schwartzel or Oosthuizen, or Scott and Day, there are a number of very good players could win but they will have to play out of their skin to match the other 3 IMO.

Sounds as if Darren Clarke is very pessimistic of his chances of surviving 36 holes, let alone 72.
He was last to register at the course which makes one imagine he was undergoing treatment, and withdrew from the Par 3 event.

I wonder if Billy Payne had a sadistic streak when he come up with the threesome of Crane, Jacobson and Na?
He should have had them followed by Bradley, Harrington and Langer and stuck both threesomes at the back of the field. Both days.

Lefty's proved right already... apparently there's a birdie fest at the par 3 contest already. Podge leading with -5 after 7... just confirming perhaps that his chances of winning the big one are rather slim...?

And Bjorn had the first hole in one today...

I think Phil is blowing smoke.

If the greens are going to be receptive, but still very fast, spin will be important and no-one (perhaps apart from Donald and Stricker) controls their spin like Phil.

First really strong group Thursday is Scott, Van Pelt and Kaymer. One of the most intriguing too.

Only four from Team GB&I in Round 1's morning wave, ten in the p.m. wave.

I was hoping Sky would ditch the irritating Georgia on my mind theme! Still the ease of Kirsty Gallagher on my eyes is slightly making up for the pain in my ears.

John Cregan wrote:You didn't rule out Mike Weir??

I think Weir is eliminated via #2 (no wins after 2009) and #4 (navigator)

It seems like plodders have won when the course has not been hard and fast.

IIRC 2003, 2007, 2008 was wet conditions with rain delays (Weir, Zach, and Trevor).

90 yr old Jack Fleck playing the par 3 tournament!

One of many reasons why I think Golf is the greatest game

Kaymers hole in one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PL-DFrgzRs&feature=related

Arnie's just been discharged from hospital and is on his way down Magnolia Drive in an ambulance to take his place alongside Nicklaus and Player as Honorary Starter.
Should be nice weather and let's hope Arnie's got his blood pressure medication sorted out; he'll need it to outdrive Player who's been doing 1,000 sit-ups a day in a bid for the longest drive.

The weather should help:
Showers Wednesday afternoon/evening, but mostly dry overnight.
Current conditions: 65F, almost calm, fair skies.

Forecast not so clever:
Thursday: Fair skies this morning, temps reaching 80F, but with a 60% chance of afternoon thunderstorms and a chance of severe stuff. That wouldn't be good.

Friday: Showers overnight and early Friday, clearing during the morning - cooler, temps high 50's, early 60's. Breezy: 10 - 15 mph.

Saturday and Sunday: NICE! Dry, sunny, calm winds, temps cool Saturday morning rising into the low 70's, warming into the 80's by Sunday afternoon.

Hopefully the weather isnt the only thing warming up come sunday. Was thinking it would just be typical if the weather dampened all the pre tournament hype.

Does anyone else hope that hitting only an honorary drive is a thoroughly humiliating and patronising experience for Gary Player? His comments in recent days about easily being able to shoot below his age and doing 1000 press ups showed what a deluded character he has become. I hope he has just shanked it up 9.

Perhaps it's Player that's been doing the drugs?

Meanwhile, Stads starts as he means to go on. Bogey.

Finally we're on!
Good steady start by Ollie, horrible one for Garrrrrigus....

C'moooon Roooors!!!

Wow, first small surprise...
Tim Clark with the 1st birdie, maybe he's back now? Good to see...

Will we get another first-time Major winner, or will we get the first win by a past Major Champion for two years and Phil?

I'd go with the latter.

What's the situation with the condition of the course? Are the players allowed to lift, clean & place on fairways or has it dried out a bit?

EmmDee57 wrote:What's the situation with the condition of the course? Are the players allowed to lift, clean & place on fairways or has it dried out a bit?

Just wondering this, as I'd read a tweet that it's pretty sodden out there with a mention of mudballs. Surely, they'd allow lift and clean today?

I see Ross Fisher started with a good par. Very curious to see how he will perform, haven't seen or heard anything about him for quite a while...

Lift, clean and place?
Haven't heard anything so assume they're playing the ball "down".

Mize, Hansen and Stadler are playing together. Will it be +30 for the group? Can Hansen do a bit better than the old guys? Do people actually follow these players on the course?

I'd follow Sandy Lyle if I was there.

Hansen was great last year in the PGA, hopefully continues that major form this week. I'm all for following a favourite or big names around the course but sometimes there is nothing better than finding that quiet bit of the course and following a group. The pros act differently, good or bad, when there are no cameras and no large crowds.

EmmDee57 wrote:I'd follow Sandy Lyle if I was there.

any money on him this year EmmDee? 1000/1 I think he was.

Apart from the fact that I wouldn't be up yet, I'd follow them, much smaller crowds (hopefully) than the later groups, and the chance that one of them might do something unexpected. Didn't Mize have a good first round a year or two back? They'd be good fun on the course anyway I think.

The usual £1 e/w goes on him. Forgot to back him to make the cut which is my other bet I traditionally do on him.

He's 7/2 to win his 3-ball with Dyson & Mills today, that's tempting!!

scoring is tough out there- no one under par!!

Handy pop out scoreboard for people at work who need to keep in touch with events but can't have a full screen leaderboard on display

http://www.masters.com/en_US/scores/scorespop.html?a=undefined

Handy pop out scoreboard for people at work who need to keep in touch with events but can't have a full screen leaderboard on display

http://www.masters.com/en_US/scores/scorespop.html?a=undefined

Harrington seems to be mastering the par 5's so far.

Let's hope he keeps up the good work, Mac; but his form on par-5's is horrendous, especially here.

Very solid start by Paul Lawrie.

Good recovery from Kaymer, under par now after an early bogey.