The Official *Team GB to 95 Medals* Thread

[Duty281]

First topic message reminder :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18787235

Yes we can! 14 medals in Cycling, 14 medals in Athletics, 10 medals in Swimming, 8 medals in Boxing, 7 medals in Rowing, 7 medals in Sailing are the main ones. London 2012, Jubilee Year, time for team GB to prove we're the greatest sporting nation on God's Green Earth. Here is the prediction breakdown compared to the UK Sport target:

ARCHERY: two medals (two bronze - UK Sport target: 0-1 medals)

ATHLETICS: 14 medals (three gold, two silver, nine bronze - UK Sport: 5-8 medals)

BADMINTON: one medal (bronze - UK Sport: 0-1 medals)

BASKETBALL: one medal (bronze - UK Sport: no medals)

BOXING: eight medals (three gold, three silver, two bronze - UK Sport: 3-5 medals)

CANOEING: four medals (one gold, two silver, one bronze - UK Sport: 3-4 medals)

CYCLING: 14 medals (six gold, three silver, five bronze - UK Sport: 6-10 medals)

EQUESTRIAN: six medals (two gold, one silver, three bronze - UK Sport: 3-4 medals)

FENCING: one medal (bronze - UK Sport: 0-1 medals)

FOOTBALL: one medal (bronze - UK Sport: no target as unfunded)

GYMNASTICS: four medals (one gold, one silver, two bronze - UK Sport: 1-2 medals)

HOCKEY: two medals (one gold, one bronze - UK Sport: 1-2 medals)

JUDO: two medals (two bronze - UK Sport: 0-1 medals)

MODERN PENTATHLON: two medals (one silver, one bronze - UK Sport: 1-2 medals)

ROWING: seven medals (two gold, three silver, two bronze - UK Sport: 6 medals)

SAILING: seven medals (two gold, three silver, two bronze - UK Sport: 3-5 medals)

SHOOTING: one medal (one silver - UK Sport: 0-1 medals)

SWIMMING: 10 medals (four gold, two silver, four bronze - UK Sport: 5-7 medals)

TAEKWONDO: three medals (one gold, one silver, one bronze - UK Sport: 1-3 medals)

TENNIS: two medals (one silver, one bronze - UK Sport: 0-2 medals)

TRIATHLON: three medals (one gold, one silver, one bronze - UK Sport: 1-2 medals)







Yes we can!

[Thomond]

Ah right, she should do it can win a medal judging from her performances. Best of luck to her and team GB if she does.

[owen10ozzy]

She was named in the squad for both Heptathlon & Hurdles Thomond...I had actually completely forgotten that their was the chance she could double up.

It doesn't start until Monday so we shall see how she feels..

Chances are that Sally Pearson of Australia will dominate that but she certainly has an opportunity to medal.

Interestingly she has mentioned quitting the Heptathlon after London and I am under the impression she is going to just go out and have some 'fun' as she puts it...in some individual events.

I can see her heading to Rio in 4 years to take on the Hurdles, High Jump & 200 m as individual events.

[teassoc]

I still think they will get between 50 and 60.

The only sport that has really done badly (vs targets) is swimming. Things were looking so good heading into the Games. I'm mystified why they didn't do so well. Only 3 PBs in the team (as of Friday)!

[Shelsey93]

I still think they will get between 50 and 60.

The only sport that has really done badly (vs targets) is swimming. Things were looking so good heading into the Games. I'm mystified why they didn't do so well. Only 3 PBs in the team (as of Friday)!

I think that a few hopes were talked up unrealistically. We could still get a gold in the open water, but in the pool only Adlington was ever a gold candidate, and there were only a couple of others that could realistically have hoped to medal. In some ways Adlington did disappoint. It is true that Ledecky swam an awesome 800, but it was still slightly slower than Becky's 800 in Beijing, so you have to wander why she has got slower - the suits? (well, others can do it without them), age? (she's not that old), she just swam an average race.

[alfie]

Swimmers were a bit disappointing , though in truth there weren't that many genuine medal chances : only Miley and Gandy really fell short of expectations , and perhaps Halsall would have had hopes of one medal - she came pretty close yesterday!
Were quite a few fifth - eighth places , which isn't all that shabby.

You should hear what some people are saying here in Australia with only one relay gold and a swag of silvers from the pool ! Some ex- swimmers are putting the boot into management and swimmers alike...

Fact is , swimming is becoming more internationally competitive by the year - getting to be more like athletics. And medals will be harder to win for any country.

[teassoc]

Swimmers were a bit disappointing , though in truth there weren't that many genuine medal chances : only Miley and Gandy really fell short of expectations , and perhaps Halsall would have had hopes of one medal - she came pretty close yesterday!
Were quite a few fifth - eighth places , which isn't all that shabby.

You should hear what some people are saying here in Australia with only one relay gold and a swag of silvers from the pool ! Some ex- swimmers are putting the boot into management and swimmers alike...

Fact is , swimming is becoming more internationally competitive by the year - getting to be more like athletics. And medals will be harder to win for any country.

You could probably add Goddard to those who badly underperformed.

But generally most have been well under the times they did earlier in the year. Only 3 PBs for the whole team! This is the most telling statistic from a GB perspective and will I'm sure be the subject of much debate within the team.

Expectations that a 'home games' would lead to even better performances by the swimmers have been completely dumbfounded. Otherwise I don't think our expectations were misplaced. If they had performed at the level of the trials they would have had much better success.

The only GB positives I can take from this is the record number of finalists and Jamieson's performance. GB swimming is likely to have its funding cut as a consequence.

The US team on the other hand has totally dominated and without that sport's record contribution to their overall tally they would be as sick as the Australians (although they have had a lot of Silvers). France has also had record success in swimming.

[alfie]

Only three PBs ? Hadn't realized it was that few, that is a good reason to ask a question or two.

One thing with a home games is you have to weigh crowd support against extra pressure , and this can affect different athletes in opposite ways.
Perhaps the swimmers as a group found the home factor an overall negative : I did think one or two got a bit overexcited and took their first laps too fast , fading later as a consequence. All very well having the crowd shouting for you on the last lap , but if you are totally out of petrol...

[owen10ozzy]

I'm not sure the Swimmer's did as badly as is being made out. What we have to remember is that after Adlington's success in Beijing the expectation was increased across the board for our swimmers.

We have had a very decent last 2 years in the meets, namely the Commonwealth & European meetings...however as I have mentioned before it is an entirely different complex when you come up against the Americans, Chinese etc.

I think a few of our swimmers perhaps hit their peaks a little to early in the year...especially with the number of PB's being set in the run up to these games...

If you look at the bigger picture you would have to say we didn't do to badly, I think the 5-7 target was a little to high in the first place and we should have been looking towards 3-5...we got 3 but obviously no Gold...

However we did reach a record number of finals and some of the team but in some spirited efforts in those finals.

I hope that the funding isn't cut as I do think that moving forward we can only get stronger. The squad needs to increase in depth & the only way you can do that is keep the funding going....the more depth we can get then the better racing amongst the squad and that is a huge plus.

You only need to look at the americans and to a degree the Australians where the depth nationally means everyone is consistently having to race at the maximum. It was mentioned a few times that here in the UK that isn't the case and some of the swimmers are able to more less breeze into their spot on the squad...this doesn't stand them in good stead when it comes to such major competitions.

So all in all yes slightly disappointing overall but not the disaster some would lead us to believe. Keep the funding going and I am sure that 4 years from now we will have progressed very well.

[teassoc]

I'm not sure the Swimmer's did as badly as is being made out. What we have to remember is that after Adlington's success in Beijing the expectation was increased across the board for our swimmers.

We have had a very decent last 2 years in the meets, namely the Commonwealth & European meetings...however as I have mentioned before it is an entirely different complex when you come up against the Americans, Chinese etc.

I think a few of our swimmers perhaps hit their peaks a little to early in the year...especially with the number of PB's being set in the run up to these games...

If you look at the bigger picture you would have to say we didn't do to badly, I think the 5-7 target was a little to high in the first place and we should have been looking towards 3-5...we got 3 but obviously no Gold...

However we did reach a record number of finals and some of the team but in some spirited efforts in those finals.

I hope that the funding isn't cut as I do think that moving forward we can only get stronger. The squad needs to increase in depth & the only way you can do that is keep the funding going....the more depth we can get then the better racing amongst the squad and that is a huge plus.

You only need to look at the americans and to a degree the Australians where the depth nationally means everyone is consistently having to race at the maximum. It was mentioned a few times that here in the UK that isn't the case and some of the swimmers are able to more less breeze into their spot on the squad...this doesn't stand them in good stead when it comes to such major competitions.

So all in all yes slightly disappointing overall but not the disaster some would lead us to believe. Keep the funding going and I am sure that 4 years from now we will have progressed very well.

The target was set deliberately at 5 - 7 (I believe) as a rather conservative figure that the authorities were prepared to be judged by. 3 - 5 would not have been agreed given the strong performances made by many swimmers leading up to the games. Clearly the great majority of swimmers left their best form at the trials.

I am sure those in charge and the coaches will be putting their heads together to work out why practically the whole team failed to perform at their best.

Not a disaster, as I believe the talent is there, but pretty disappointing nevertheless and put into an even worse light by the strong 'home' performances in many of the other sports.

[Shelsey93]

A pretty good day today. Well done to Ben Ainslie and Andy Murray for truly excellent gold medal winning performances

Murray/Robson, the gymnasts and Christine Ohorougou all performed as well as could realistically have been hoped Louis Smith would have hoped that his rival messed up, but in many ways his routine was as near to perfect as you could wish for in an Olympic final. Just frustrating to be a fraction from a gold. Also a shame that Robson's game collapsed after the first set, but to even get to the final was a fabulous achievement from a pair that had never played together before, and featured a rookie. With Robson opposite Azarenka the chances were always slim.

I think that the Star Class sailors will be gutted. They led all the way, and seemed to get their tactics all wrong today, letting the Swedes in. Also, Clancy would probably have expected more than a bronze in the Omnium. His scratch race performance wasn't up to scratch (sorry).

Anyway, plenty more chances tomorrow - primarily:

- Beth Tweddle in the uneven bars
- Jason Kenny in the cycling men's sprint
- The team Show Jumping (we are joint 2nd overnight behind Saudi Arabia)


And then some half chances for Dai Greene and Holly Bleasdale in the Athletics

[Duty281]

We've just won Gold number 19, what an Olympics for Team GB!

[eirebilly]

Whats GBR's record for golds won at an Olympics, surely they mus be close?

[alfie]

Nah , Billy ... won fifty odd back in 1908 ...

So they tell me , was even before my time

[Duty281]

According to Wikipedia, GB won 56 Golds, 51 Silver, and 39 Bronze medals at the 1908 Olympics. But only 22 nations competed and, believe it or not, tug-of-war was an actual event at the Games (Britain took Gold, Silver and Bronze!).

[eirebilly]

Shoite, even before your time alfie old man

Best performance in the last 50 years?

[andyi]

An update on the original article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/19144994

And the offical UK sport targets:
www.uksport.gov.uk/docLib/London2012OlympicTargets.pdf

Diving (1-3 medals) was missing from the OP's list.

[andyi]

Ive been a sad git and done a spreadsheet of the targets and results:

Here's where we are as of now:



NOTE: Boxing is in Red as the medals haven't officially been awarded yet.

[Jennifer1984]

If you are basing your net gain against the minimum target, which you appear to do in most columns, then should not the cyclists show as a net gain of 3 instead of 0...? A couple of other net gains also seem a tad out as does the total net gain when compared to the minimum target. But hey, this is not a criticism, merely an analysis of your table.


Just a thought.......

It would also have been useful to have another column showing the remaining events which have a medal prospect such as the BMX cycling.

Another way to highlight this may have been to embolden or colour code those events which are still in progress /not yet contested.

Otherwise, the raw data is useful and informative. Thanks for sharing. And no, you're not a sad git. You took the trouble to objectively assess the situation. Kudos to you for that.

.

[andyi]

If you are basing your net gain against the minimum target, which you appear to do in most columns, then should not the cyclists show as a net gain of 3 instead of 0...? A couple of other net gains also seem a tad out as does the total net gain when compared to the minimum target. But hey, this is not a criticism, merely an analysis of your table.


Just a thought.......

It would also have been useful to have another column showing the remaining events which have a medal prospect such as the BMX cycling.

Another way to highlight this may have been to embolden or colour code those events which are still in progress /not yet contested.

Otherwise, the raw data is useful and informative. Thanks for sharing. And no, you're not a sad git. You took the trouble to objectively assess the situation. Kudos to you for that.

NO.
The net gain is based on the Window set by UK sport.

Eg: If the window is 3-5.
2 medals gets a net gain of -1
3-5 medals gets a net gain of 0
6 medals gets a net gain of +1

Trust me, thats the most complex equation ive ever put in Excel, made my head hurt

Here's the latest table (which includes the guaranteed sailing and boxing medals not yet awarded)
Over achievers in green, under in orange.
Sports with a chance to meet their targets like Diving and Taekwondo iv'e left blank.



I'll not bother with the other columns but will keep updating it.

[alfie]

You are a very clever chap , andyi...I am impressed with your table

( I am forced to do this stuff with pencil and paper...)

Seems possible swimming will end up as the only under-achiever .

[andyi]

You are a very clever chap , andyi...I am impressed with your table

( I am forced to do this stuff with pencil and paper...)

Seems possible swimming will end up as the only under-achiever .

Here's hoping!

PS: Should probably left Canoeing blank as their are more sprint medals to go for but we've not won any yet so not confident.

[dummy_half]

Swimming can still sneak up to their lower target if we get medals in both open water events - possible, but unlikely.

Athletics should manage to pick up a couple more medals (Farah in the 5000m is a probable, Dobriskiy in the 1500m, Lewis in the PV and 3 of the 4 relay teams are possibles). Doubt they'll exceed the 'high' target of 8.

The horsey lot have a chance of adding to their total today.

Sailing will exceed their target, as we have one guaranteed medal and a couple of others still going with chances.

[mystiroakey]

An IF formula would do it. IF results = less than min target then results minus min target, IF results = more than max target then results minus max target , otherwise 0..

How did you do it andyi. Allways like to know how people do there excel

[VTR]

Great work from Andy.

One thing that interests me there is Taekwondo. I didn't really think we were competitive in it, but there's clearly medals expected so will keep an eye on that.

Diving as well as swimming could miss its target. Daley is far from guaranteed a medal, so could be a zero there. Like the swimming there was a lot of hype coming in so could be embarassing. Should we maybe knock down the Aquatics centre and build another velodrome?

[alfie]

You are a very clever chap , andyi...I am impressed with your table

( I am forced to do this stuff with pencil and paper...)

Seems possible swimming will end up as the only under-achiever .

Here's hoping!

PS: Should probably left Canoeing blank as their are more sprint medals to go for but we've not won any yet so not confident.

I understand there is a fellow contesting the K1 200 sprint who is definitely among the favourites...McKeever is it not ?

[andyi]

An IF formula would do it. IF results = less than min target then results minus min target, IF results = more than max target then results minus max target , otherwise 0..

How did you do it andyi. Allways like to know how people do there excel

Yep that's what I did:

=IF(D2<B2,D2-B2,IF(D2>C2,D2-C2,0))

[mystiroakey]

cool,

[alfie]

KAP missing out in the open water seems to continue the recent trend ...has the GB medal train been derailed ?

Up to those horsey types to get it moving again (quite unwatchable though with all that cheesy music for the horses' dance routines - suppose that is what the mute button is for

[dummy_half]

Last couple of days seem to have been characterised by people falling just short - Dai Green and KAP being two expected medalists that came 4th.

Skelton in particular was unlucky in the individual show jumping - only fence he touched all week, and even then the horse only brushed it. On another day it could have stayed up, but it just wasn't to be, and was the difference between a jump-off for gold and no medal. Felt sorry for the Irish lad though - 0.02s quicker and he'd have been jumping off for gold or silver.

Some reasonably positive performances from the lesser athletes in the last couple of days - Osagie running a pb to reach the 800m final, similarly Clarke in the 110 hurdles, then a very respectable 4th in the final. British record in the women's hammer qualification and a good pole vault quali from Lewis. This is what the guys who aren't real medal threats should be doing, but we've been a bit hit and miss in the athletics (and rather disappointing in the swimming).

[Duty281]

3 Golds and 1 Silver so far for GB on Day 8. Still Ennis and Farah to come.

Duty,

Seeing as 95 Medals is now impossible, wgat number do you thing GB will end up at. Id go for between 30& 38.....................

50+. Over 20 Golds.

That's that done then. We're on 50 Medals exactly (about to be 51 in the next hour) and have 23 Golds. Love it!

[andyi]

Here's the latest table (which includes the guaranteed sailing and boxing medals not yet awarded)
Over achievers in green, under in orange:



Last chance for Canoeing today.
Hockey, Modern Pentahlon and Diving still got a chance to meet their targets.

[Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler]

Canoeing looks likely to make its 3 medal target too with that chap winning his sprint semi final.

Looking at the medals won and targets it seems we need to get people out of their boats and into the water.

[Duty281]

Well the highly unrealistic target of 95 medals won't be reached. But the other highly unrealistic target of 27 Golds, may well be reached. It's been a fantastic Olympics for GB!

[alfie]

Silver day on the water so that hasn't helped the gold rush...

But McKeever was impressive winning his semi and looks like a medallist , good chance of gold , which will indeed give canoeing its target . The double and Jess Walker also in finals so they might even hit their max.

Divers have been a bit off so far ...wonder if Daley can get in the mix with the Chinese.

[Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler]

Mceever got his gold and we just got a bronze in the K2 sprint...canoeing has beaten its high end target.

Joshua is in the big chaps boxing final. Things going a bit better today than yesterday.

60 medals in total wouldve seemed hugely unrealistic 8 years ago, especially with several high profile athletes injured . Its only swimming and diving that have struggled with their targets ( lthough daley is still in).

[alfie]

And the canoe squad has indeed hit their stretch target with a gold and bronze this morning...
I did expect McKeever to win gold , but the K2 was more of a could be second , could be sixth , so well done them too.

[teassoc]

Mceever got his gold and we just got a bronze in the K2 sprint...canoeing has beaten its high end target.

Joshua is in the big chaps boxing final. Things going a bit better today than yesterday.

60 medals in total wouldve seemed hugely unrealistic 8 years ago, especially with several high profile athletes injured . Its only swimming and diving that have struggled with their targets ( lthough daley is still in).

Unfortunately two of the biggest sports - athletics and swimming - are the ones where we've had the most disappointments. Neither will have met their targets.

[alfie]

So 62 medals now (counting the three boxers , colour yet to be determined) and a handful of events to come...
Still chances on the track , modern pentathlon (women , tomorrow) and a hockey play off for bronze - will be hard to beat Australia there , though.

65 ? No-one could complain about that ...

[alfie]

Athletics indeed will miss the target. I wouldn't be too despondent about that though ; three gold ( still could be four ) rather soften the blow , and the number of final placings , mostly by young athletes , is encouraging. If they hadn't messed up those relays ...

[Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler]

Athletics has already made its minimum target, and Mo Farah has a reasonable chance of a medal and the womens spriters a chance of bronze. Thats despite the favourite for the womens marathon having to pull out and Greene and Idowou coming in injured. 3 of the 5 medals so far have been golds too, I cant remember the last time Britain got 3 atheltics golds...they only had 1 in Sydney.
Its only the pool sports that have failed to deliver.

[Shelsey93]

Athletics has already made its minimum target, and Mo Farah has a reasonable chance of a medal and the womens spriters a chance of bronze. Thats despite the favourite for the womens marathon having to pull out and Greene and Idowou coming in injured. 3 of the 5 medals so far have been golds too, I cant remember the last time Britain got 3 atheltics golds...they only had 1 in Sydney.
Its only the pool sports that have failed to deliver.

Radcliffe was never a favourite. It is years since she was competing at the top end of Marathons.

[andyi]

Latest update:



Sports in Italic still have medal chances for team GB.

[mystiroakey]

so fingers crosse dfor diving and modern pentathlon- We need to look into swimming

[Duty281]

We're up to 27 Golds now, highly improbable but we've done it! And it's Medal 60 for us!

[alfie]

Not to be greedy , but 30 gold is still possible...

Whatever the final total , this has been a fantastic team achievement. Just brilliant.

[Duty281]

30 is still possible. We're now on 28 after Campbell's win in the boxing. Evans and Joshua are both one win from Gold which would take us up to 30. Those are are only realistic chances for tomorrow. 30 would be dreamful wouldn't it? 3 times as many as the French. Whatever happens, it's been a fantastic Olympics.

[Guest]

30 is still possible. We're now on 28 after Campbell's win in the boxing. Evans and Joshua are both one win from Gold which would take us up to 30. Those are are only realistic chances for tomorrow. 30 would be dreamful wouldn't it? 3 times as many as the French. Whatever happens, it's been a fantastic Olympics.

It's bee the dogs Duty. Doubt we'll ever top this.

[Dave.]

Women's Modern Pentathlon guys! But regardless - Best. Games. Ever!

[teassoc]

Athletics has already made its minimum target, and Mo Farah has a reasonable chance of a medal and the womens spriters a chance of bronze. Thats despite the favourite for the womens marathon having to pull out and Greene and Idowou coming in injured. 3 of the 5 medals so far have been golds too, I cant remember the last time Britain got 3 atheltics golds...they only had 1 in Sydney.
Its only the pool sports that have failed to deliver.

So they end with 4 Golds, 1 Silver and 1 Bronze. Outstanding results by some but lots of disappointments from others.

They fail to meet the funding target of 8 medals agreed with UK Sport. However they have a number of very talented juniors coming through to soften that blow, so their funding might not be cut.

Athletics and Swimming have not lived up to expectations, whereas almost all other sports have.

Will they get 30 plus Golds? Should now be safe from Russia pipping them at the end. Well behind them on total medals though.

Overall a Games that must have been hard to imagine several weeks ago.

[Happytravelling]

It looks like they are safe from Russia, in third.

Athletics and swimming have the toughest competition, as the "blue ribbon" events. I seem to remember France at one point stating clearly that they would target niche events as you get more bang per buck. If you're cynically chasing medals you target:

a) niche events where the competition isn't so fierce. So, horseriding etc. are good
b) swimming, as it gets a dispraportionate amount of medals.

Having said that, out olympic association didn't help itself in not trying to protect our best performing sports. At the London Olympics cycling took a hit in a deliberate attempt to limit GB success. I'm sure the US wouldn't have allowed basketball to be cut from any games they hold. But I assume it was a voting issue.

In general I think GB have done well. Noteable from a number of suprise poor results. Men's road race, V Pendleton etc. As noted, the depth has been good and a number of young atheletes means it could have been a whole lot better with marginally better performances.

Its going to be a challenge to repeat this in Rio. Although government funding will be maintained, corporate sponsorship will be lower so over all funding will be down. But still significantly higher than previous Olympics and hopefully the momentum will count for something.

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