Fed's Golden Opportunity #2

With Nadal officially withdrawing from the Olympics, things are looking rather sunny for Fed's prospects for the next month or two.

There's undoubtedly consequences here for the US hard court swing and probably the Y.E. No.1, with the latter now being narrowed down to a two horse race between Federer and Djokovic and the Canada & Cinci titles probably heading to Federer, Djokovic or Murray.

However, more immediately, this certainly is a boost for Federer and Murray too. Fed now only needs to get past Djokovic instead of potentially both Djokovic and Nadal. For Murray, depending on the draw, this is also good news, although he will still need to get past either Federer or Djokovic in the semis. Although it's early, I think a poll would be nice, to accompany the discussion on Fed's chances and the wider impact for the US summer swing.

I hope so. It'd be the garnish on his wonderful career

Possibly... but there's Djokovic to consider, I'm sure he'll want a bit of revenge after that semi-final loss!

As will Murray, no doubt.

ChequeredJersey wrote:I hope so. It'd be the garnish on his wonderful career

He'd have nearly everything you'd want, but almost certainly all the important titles. Of course a few titles on the Master 1000 circuit (Monte Carlo, Rome & Shanghai) are missing & Davis Cup but that's all I can think of...however, I don't want to get ahead of myself. I'm just thinking that there is the potential for 2012 to transform itself into a year like 2009 for Fed: following an abysmal preceding year (2008 in the case of the latter and 2011 in the former) but then transforming into an overall, great year...both years helped by a short absence of Nadal....

Surface favours Federer.

I want a shootout between Federer and Tsongaaaaaa!

I wouldn't be so sure, he was so close to disaster against Benneteau and everyone would have written his obituary. The semi and final weren't easy either.

With national fervour a factor I think Djokovic is the clear favourite here.

The dynamic is much different, more like a Masters Series format I have a feeling he'll lose in the semis if Murray gets to him. If he gets to the final then whoever's the other side of the net he'll beat.

following an abysmal preceding year (2008 in the case of the latter and 2011 in the former)

Whilst 2008 had its disappointing moments for Fed, particularly being thrashed in the FO final then losing the Wimbledon final, I think its a bit of a stretch to call it abysmal! He still won a slam, reached two finals and a semi, which is not too shabby. I guess it shows just how great he was playing before that such a year seemed abysmal in comparison!

It all comes down to form...and the draw...he'll be hoping for one as good as 3 weeks ago.

bogbrush wrote:With national fervour a factor I think Djokovic is the clear favourite here.

Why would Djokovic's national fervour be more of a factor than that of any other player? Is this something to do with "innit" or "umami" or something?

I don't buy into this line of thinking which is usually expressed by rather vocal Djokovic fans (oh where are they now).

Just saw the news. Was surprised but I had a feeling Nadal may pull out as he would have been going into the Olympics having just played 4 grass court matches this year. Also hoped he would be there and start proceedings on the first day so that maybe Fed would be played on day 2, the day I have tickets but anyway...

On paper it seems like a golden chance for Federer, However, as he himself said, there are 63 other men hoping to win too. I can bet u Djoko and Murray will be out for revenge after Wimbledon. Also, this is best of 3 until the final. Fed has very up and down best of 3 sets these days. If it was best of 3 vs Benneteau he would have lost.

Also, Fed has an annoying habit of coming unstuck against certain players at the Olympics. 2004, his best chance fell to Berdych and 2008 lost to BLAKE of all people. His Olympic record is poor in my opinion so this could go either way.

I don't believe there is a guarantee he will win this elusive gold medal. It would be 'nice' as the man keeps saying but at the end of the day, it was more important he won another slam so if Djoko and Murray or whoever for that matter beat him, I would not be too disappointed. He stands a good chance and with the confidence of winning 3 weeks ago he should make the latter stages. I just hope he does not play with pressure as he seems to do whenever Nadal is out. Happened at the FO in 09 in his next match (and throughout the tournament) after Nadal's exit and happened again this year at Wimbledon vs Benneteau.

What will be will be. Would be wonderful if he could but as others have pointed out, he would have made a rapid exit if format had been bo3 at Wimbledon proper - but then again by that token, so Nadal, Djokovic and Murray would be susceptible to going early because each has been taken to five in early rounds on more than one occasion on the lawns of SW19 IIRC.

That's after all why the Olympic medal is less prestigious than holding one of the major titles. Having said that, it is obviously wonderful for an athlete to win gold for his/her country.

I think we might see some of the young guns cause a little stir here.

If Fed won this I could see him scratching from Toronto and sticking around for the closing ceremony. In fact, I can see Canada getting really dumped on with withdrawals or early exits. I hope not, particularly for Federers ranking hopes, but something's going to give before the US Open.

I am hoping he can. Be another notch on the bedpost.

Depends what the draw will be like when it comes out.

There is no reason why Federer cannot do this. It is his last attempt at winning a gold. Let's face it, anything less than a gold would be a disappointment.

He has the added pressure taken off him now that Nadal is not competing. I think it is a load of rubbish all this talk of * next to a medal should he win one as there is no guarantee Nadal would have made it that far anyway.

However, it makes you wonder whether he is capable of winning it. In his most dominant years he failed to do so. At 31 does he stand a better chance? The draw will play a big part as with any of the top players. If it is meant to be then it will happen.

FedsFan wrote:Just saw the news. Was surprised but I had a feeling Nadal may pull out as he would have been going into the Olympics having just played 4 grass court matches this year. Also hoped he would be there and start proceedings on the first day so that maybe Fed would be played on day 2, the day I have tickets but anyway...

On paper it seems like a golden chance for Federer, However, as he himself said, there are 63 other men hoping to win too. I can bet u Djoko and Murray will be out for revenge after Wimbledon. Also, this is best of 3 until the final. Fed has very up and down best of 3 sets these days. If it was best of 3 vs Benneteau he would have lost.

Also, Fed has an annoying habit of coming unstuck against certain players at the Olympics. 2004, his best chance fell to Berdych and 2008 lost to BLAKE of all people. His Olympic record is poor in my opinion so this could go either way.

I don't believe there is a guarantee he will win this elusive gold medal. It would be 'nice' as the man keeps saying but at the end of the day, it was more important he won another slam so if Djoko and Murray or whoever for that matter beat him, I would not be too disappointed. He stands a good chance and with the confidence of winning 3 weeks ago he should make the latter stages. I just hope he does not play with pressure as he seems to do whenever Nadal is out. Happened at the FO in 09 in his next match (and throughout the tournament) after Nadal's exit and happened again this year at Wimbledon vs Benneteau.

There is a difference that is relevant here. In both the examples of the French Open '09 & Wimbledon '12, Nadal's exit occurred during the tournament, not prior to the tournament, thus I don't think these examples are accurate or very helpful. The more accurate scenario is what the effect has been when Nadal has withdrawn prior to a major tournament, so Wimbledon '09 is more representative. In that case, Federer dropping just one set en-route to the final with Roddick and that sole set, he lost in a tie breaker and only after he had a firm grasp of the match, being already 2 sets up! I think the fact Fed has over a week for Nadal's withdrawal to sink in and settle himself, helps him immensely and Nadal's departure, being so far in advance of the tournament makes things easier for Fed than if Nadal had been knocked out while the tournament was in progress.

I also think that while some young guns may come up, I think that by the quarters, at least 3 of the top 4 (taking part) will be there, just like after a number of shock losses in the first week of Wimbledon this year settled into a familiar pattern.

Rafa's withdrawal is obviously significant, but it's questionable just how much his absence will directly affect the prospects of other competitors.

As Fedsfan says above there is no guarantee as to how far Nadal would have progressed anyway, and given this year's venue / surface he would not have been coming into the Olympics as an outright hot favourite.

His performance on grass this year was pretty woeful, it can't be denied. A QF (effectively, R2 with a bye) exit in straights to Kohlschreiber at Halle ; and then the early loss to Rosol at Wimbledon (where he had seemed very focussed on regaining his title from 2010 and had pronounced himself to be in fine shape & feeling good after his opening round)

But nor does any of this mean that Federer can now somehow expect an easy ride. Fed, just like Rafa, also showed himself to be vulnerable over three sets in Halle. Ok, he did make it to the Final but then lost inexplicably to Haas, ranked 87 at the time and without a title, or even Final, over the previous three years.

However, once 'business proper' got started at Wimbledon, Federer's objective was clear enough : to wipe memories of two successive QF exits - which of course he did, and more besides .

Quite apart from determined challenges to come from Djokovic, Murray, & Tsonga, my own hunch is that the Olympics could throw up some surprising (time please ) or even wacky results - in much the same way that low-ranked guys have so often performed well above themselves in Davis Cup. In that respect I think that national pride does, and could, play a part.....

It depends on how we look @ things, lags72. It is debatable how far Nadal may have gone, given his lack of progress on grass this year. However, it isn't Nadal on his own who possesses the threat to Federer, it's the combination of Nadal and Djokovic. I have no doubt that Fed can beat Djokovic and even Nadal in BO3 but the combination of both of them in the latter stages of a tournament, i.e. one in the semi and the other in the final is where the danger is: can Fed beat both?

It was commonly said in the forum prior to Wimbledon that the one big reason many posters thought Fed couldn't win was because he could probably beat one of the big 2 (Nadal/Djokovic) but not both in a grand slam. It's easy to get carried away now that Fed has won a grand slam, that he can beat both, but when was the last time he did? Hence why Nadal's withdrawal is actually a big boost. I agree, that it won't matter unless Fed progresses to the latter stages of the tournament, but I still think it's more likely then not that he will. Fed has highlighted that the Olympics is important to him and I think that will mean he will go for that extra push.

The best finish I envisaged for Fed this year was him winning Wimbledon, the Olympics and the USO (the dream!). I never saw Fed as contender for RG and as for the Aussie Open? After he drew Nadal, I thought it was highly unlikely. Wimbledon is special for Fed because that's where it all began but the USO is too (in a different way) because even when he lost Wimbledon in '08, the USO stood as Fed's sole grand slam fortress in adversity....as you say deltoro87, 2008 wasn't that bad because it was a year he won a slam but in terms of appearances in the slams yes, it may have been okay...in context, (as you say) it wasn't. He also lost the No.1 spot for the first time in over 4 1/2 years, at the time it felt like the end of an era, the time of Nadal had come and as a Fed fan, made worse by the way 2009 started but 2008 stands out from all other years (even compared to 2011) because Fed lost half of the finals he reached that year, whereas in every other year since 2003, he'd always won a majority of the finals he'd been in. The USO was the only saving grace of 2008 but it was still awful!

2008 was hideous. Losing to Blake at the Olympics merely underlined how badly the illness early in the year had impaired him.

He lost to all & sundry that year. Contrast that to 2012, where with his rivals at their peak he is far more competitive.

The massive deal now is the US Open. Win that and the y/e #1 is all but claimed.

I agree BB/Luciusmann.

2008 stands out as the worst year Fed had. I think it is because it was the first year the dominance ended. Also, losing the Wimbledon final for the first time in 5 years had a huge impact. He lost to players like Blake, Fish, Stepanek. I think by 2011 had resigned myself to the fact that he may not win another slam. Prior to this year, some said he should have retired but the shame is that the man can still produce results unlike Roddick for example for struggles.

The last 10 months have been amazing and long may it continue but you have to wonder when the bubble will burst. Winning Wimbledon can give him confidence but certainly not a guarantee he will win gold. The format is different and playing daily will have its consequences. It depends on the draw too. I don't see him as a favourite here though the media are making him favourite. Lately, when the focus has been away from Fed he has sprung a surprise as he did at Wimbledon. I just hope he can win this as that will be another accomplishment. On the other hand, if its a toss up between the USO and Olympics, definitely USO as Olympics and tennis do not have much history unlike the slams.

USO > Olympics any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

Anyone see his face when it was suggested Wimbledon was the warm up event or the Olympics?

luciusmann & bogbrush :

- Three of the year's four Slams have now been played out, with a trophy apiece going to the top 3. It's Federer who has racked up the best overall W/L figures of the season ; - He has knocked out the star (at times, near-invincible) player of the past 18 months, and defending champ, to then go on to take a 7th Wimbledon title
- and in so doing deservedly regained the World Number One ranking.

But whilst I can see on the one hand you're keeping a realistic and balanced perspective, I also sense you 're being quite demanding as regards just how much more you expect of him .... (??)

- He has just become the oldest Wimbledon champion since Arthur Ashe way back in 1975 ;
- I don't imagine anyone of Fed's age has ever won Olympics Gold in singles (haven't researched tbh, not being particularly enthused by tennis as an Olympics event ...
- Only twice in the past forty years has a player older than Federer managed to claim a USO title.

Many sceptics and doubters (of which I was certainly one) have been surprised, and proved wrong once again, by Federer adding yet another Slam to his tally along with that coveted Number One status. The run that began immediately after his USO SF defeat last year just seems to have gone on & on. But ..... would you not say that the combination of age + number of matches played (highest of the 'Big Four') must catch up pretty soon, such that the remainder of the year simply cannot match the success which has brought him 5 titles in 2012 to date ...?

Nothing can be taken away from these achievements and the seemingly-endless series of record-breaking milestones. BUT - as Fedsfan says - you surely have to wonder when the bubble will burst ....

Lags72, I'd say that my expectations as very different to my hopes. I hope he wins the other 2 big jewels of this year (Olympics & USO), however, my expectation of that is kept low because you just don't know with Fed these days! You rightly point out his age and that he's been remarkably consistent since the USO last year as it is. I'd just say that prior to Rome, RG & Halle, I still had an expectation Fed could win Wimbledon and perhaps reach the RG final and still produce the sort of runs we're used to seeing from him because his performances since the USO had been that good (he even beat Nadal in IW)! However, after those 3 tournaments, doubt crept in and he did win Wimbledon, but I remain far from convinced he can land big titles consistently. As I said, my dream for Fed is him winning the remaining 2 big jewels of the year, but alas, it's still a dream.

I think his chances @ the Olympics are better than @ the USO but only because we have a reasonable idea of how he'll do on grass, whereas on hardcourt, we can't be so sure (although he has won 3 titles on hard court this year -Rotterdam, Dubai & IW). He may stand a good chance @ the USO, but I'd like to see if Fed can win Canada or Cinni, (as he has so often done) before drawing any conclusions. I mean, since 2004, when Fed truly emerged, he won a title @ Canada or Cinci in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 & 2010. Only in what I'd call ghastly years like 2008 & 2011, did he fail to land either one, in fact it was so bad he didn't even reach the semis of either one, let alone the final! He has played a lot of matches, agreed, however, I'm sure he could skip Canada, where in the last few years he hasn't done as well, as let's say Cinni. He could also skip Shanghai later in the season, so overall, he'll be in good condition for the indoor season so he that way he stands a better chance of winning the Y.E. No.1.

I'm not being demanding at all. I think he really could be #1 at year end, and the USO is very big in that, particularly if Djokovic isn't make the final.

I'm amazed at the turn of events in 2012, absolutely beyond expectations. But he can now do more; Djokovic is reeling and Nadal vulnerable.

lags72 wrote:But ..... would you not say that the combination of age + number of matches played (highest of the 'Big Four') must catch up pretty soon, such that the remainder of the year simply cannot match the success which has brought him 5 titles in 2012 to date ...?

Federer is a confidence player. Winning matches provides him fuel to win even more. And he's only 30 years old, OK, almost 31! Sometimes I get the feeling reading the posts here that he is a half-crippled 36-37 year-old still trying to hang in there!

prostaff : I do hear what you say, not least about him being a 'confidence player' ; and I certainly wasn't implying he was some sort of geriatric. Today's game is undoubtedly more demanding than ever, and you obviously don't regain World Number One spot - just a week or so short of turning 31 - without being supremely fit.

However, whilst 30/31 might not sound that old, it's just a fact - whichever way you look at it - that very few other players of that age are regularly seen at the semis and Finals of the Slams ; which in turn means that Federer is constantly having to tough it out with younger players (and very often as much as 5/6 years younger). Logic would say that at some point the age difference becomes a significant factor ; and more so towards the latter stages of a long season - as I feel it will do at the USO.

It just so happens that Wimbledon and USO are the two Slams that have always proved toughest for an 'oldie' to win : only five previous cases of anyone 31 + doing so in the past 44 years (ie since the 'Open' era began 1968) : once at Wimbledon, and four times at the US.

I guess it's something of a paradox that the player now ranked highest within the Top 20 is also the oldest. Ferrer and Fish are the only other guys aged 30 in that top group - although even they are both a little younger than Fed.

Slightly off-topic, but I'd say that David Ferrer perhaps doesn't always get the credit he deserves for keeping himself in such great shape and regularly making it to the business end of tournaments : 5 titles (plus another Final) in 2012 to date tells its own story

lags, this is why he's the GOAT; he's a natural whose talent and hard work are extending his career, and whose ability allows him to be at the top despite age.

I said when he played Malisse and couldn't bend his back to serve that we were getting a sneak preview of Fed on the Seniors Tour. When the day comes for him to play there I think he'll be unbeatable. There'll certainly be no Rafa to trouble him as his game won't work past physical peak.