Is Federer about to risk not making the 300 Club?

These comments were made by Federer after DC last weekend...

"I need a holiday badly. I'm wounded, tired, and exhausted and need some time off right now and see where I go from here. Nothing has been decided for the rest of year, even though there is a plan in place, that plan might change. I need to go back to the drawing board to see what's important."

http://www.tennis.com/news/2012/09/federer-davis-cup-not-high-priority/39450/#.UFepAGt5mK0

What do you think he means - a long break?
Or more severely getting disillusioned with tennis?
Does this jeopardise the 300 Club ascension? (with only Martina and Steffi as other members)

Yes, I think it does. The last thing he'd do in that mood is go to Shanghai.

It's disappointing but shows the guy is a bit smarter than us fans. Perhaps if Djokovic doesn't win both China and Shanghai he gets it anyway, so maybe it works out.

It's certainly the end of the y/e#1 though, but looks like longevity and titles matter more to him, which I guess is right.

he also said "I'm not 23 anymore so I have to manage my expectations" Thats the first time I've heard him sound his age

Alarming news for the Shanghai tournament director. Roger probably fancies skipping it by the sound of it, but he has already done that once or twice in the past (2009, 2011) and sent an apology to his fans saying he would be back next year, so he owes them.

As for 300, I thought he makes it anyway. As long as Djokovic doesn't win Tokyo and Shanghai, or Beijing and Shanghai (whichever it is). Odds are he makes 300 anyway then right, more of an issue is missing out on no 1 though.

Sounds unlikely to be long term or thinking about retirement or anything severe.

The reverse of thinking about retirement I believe.

Certainly not the absolute end of y/e no 1 if he skips Shanghai, but it would make it quite hard.

Yep that's how I read it too...clearly skipping Shanghai at least...Basel is only 4 weeks away too, with Paris Masters the following week. Are those in jeopardy from the sound of it?

He does have the most points, by some way, to defend post USO from 2011. This could be Murray's shot at YE #1, although he's got a few points himself.
Djokovic had the least...so most to gain. But I suspect thy're all feeling it after a tough summer.

Question though - was DC one event too far for Federer?
After all Switzerland have "only" now got to DC World Group...was it really worth risking the 300 Club for?

Could it be that as the year draws to a close and after he clearly decided to try and play more tournaments, for the first time Federer is starting to realise that he can't keep it up anymore? He was always saying he's as good as ever, but just lately he seems to be wilting slightly. The Olympic final he was completely fried, so many times this year I have heard him say he's tired more than I have ever heard him in his entire career. (towards the end of Indian Wells and we know what happened in Miami, in Madrid and especially in Rome the said he was running on fumes.

I hope the indoor season helps him with the points being shorter after resting up his body as the first 6 months of next year are going to be really tough for him on slow courts and with a lot of points to defend. Then again, him maybe planning on resting is a sign that he wants to continue, if he goes mad to keep the World Number 1 he could be finished by the start of 2013.

I think he made a huge push to recapture #1 and get the record, and well done to him for pulling it off. Maybe now he's just got to pay the price, and it's a much better one than doing his back in, or worse.

Given the lack of gap between Paris and WTF it seems highly unlikely to me that Fed will play Basel, Paris and London. That would be three weeks with no break. Even if he does try to, even someone as fit as he is will surely be struggling by London? As it doesn't seem he will go to Shanghai, I think we can start Djokovic's year end number 1 coronation.

Not a chance of Murray overhauling Djokovic this year by the way. I would guess he'll go all out to win Shanghai and the WTF to set himself up for a shot at number 1 mid 2013.

bogbrush wrote:The reverse of thinking about retirement I believe.

bogbrush wrote:I think he made a huge push to recapture #1 and get the record, and well done to him for pulling it off. Maybe now he's just got to pay the price, and it's a much better one than doing his back in, or worse.

This is pretty much exactly what I think. I think he believes (rightly or not) that he can spend another couple of years at or near the top but he also realizes he is "no longer 23", so he wants to be careful to build in enough rest into his season. He is willing to give up a chance of YE #1 because he believes he is likely trading it for sufficient amount of success down the road to make it a good trade-off.

I also think the chase for #1 may have drained him - maybe even more emotionally than physically (though physically likely too), so he may need more rest than he otherwise would.

Of course I could be wrong and next thing we know he could announce he is retiring

Someone was posting about what targets he might have left. Needing to "go back to the drawing board to see what's important" sounds a bit like that, like 'is y/e #1 really a target for me given I'm tired?'

The umpteenth WTF probably matters more; trophies trump rankings I'd guess.

Chinese Mafia will not be pleased. What a chance for someone like Raonic to do so damage though. Surely losing to Berdych is keeping him (Fed) up at night, I do think "disillusioned" is too strong a word Lydian, propaganda word.

I think if you heard anyone saying "I need a holiday badly. I'm wounded, tired, and exhausted and need some time off right now and see where I go from here" you might wonder if their motivation for the game may be waning. I've never heard Federer use these kind of words before.

Federer has played a lot of tennis in 12 months, and achieved a great deal. But usually these huge runs come at a cost when players are older. Mentally or physically, or both. None of us know how he's really feelings inside but it's not a massive leap of faith to wonder what is left to motivate him in the game. His family are getting older and to the age where he can really interact with them. It may be that he feels he's been spending too much time away from home and the comment about "I need to go back to the drawing board to see what's important" may be a reflection that he's not spending enough time with his kids. Or it maybe reflects he felt playing Davis Cup was a waste of time...and there are bigger tennis fish to fry?

The only really new words are

see where I go from here

because we've heard him say before when he's knackered and needs a rest - I suspect that he said something similar about needing a break and being knackered after the 2009, 2010, and 2011 USO's.

I reckon that expression of uncertainty is probably more because this year is different due to the schedule and the choices that arise - it was an Olympic year and the last week has been brought forward as well and #1 is genuinely in the balance unlike pretty much every other year since 2003.

The calendar presents nasty choices because the last three tournaments on his schedule are three weeks in a row and the next one is a huge return trip for one week in Shanghai (which he's promised in terms he usually prefers to keep). The Olympics mean that he's already skipped one Masters and I think two is the usual maximum to skip - he really ought to play one of Paris or Shanghai, probably shanghai.

I think for the first time for a long time when, as usual, he's gassed at this time of the season (possibly more so than in recent years), there are genuinely difficult decisions to make. He needs to give the #1 his best shot if he wants it - and this must be his last chance. What would he regret more - taking a break and giving up on ye #1 no. 6, or battling on and having a slow start to 2013 in consequence?

I hope he plays Shahai and skips Paris. It works better for the WTF that way (plus helps him get to 300),

I actually think it's great that (at last) Fed realises that he isn't superman and doesn't have a divine right to be No.1 or winning everything

I said months ago, that he needed to take a leaf our of Agassi's book and jokingly take on the 'old man' status, struggling to keep up with these great younger kids - it sure takes the pressure off

Wrongly of course, he thought he'd win all three 'majors' this summer, probably because deep down he sees Rafa as his No.1 rival (after all he's rarely outplayed by Novak) and now perhaps realises that might have been a little bit too high a task, albeit a worthy target

This new philosophy is actually worrying for the others - a Federer who comes in relaxed as an underdog is a big big danger

bogbrush wrote:I hope he plays Shahai and skips Paris. It works better for the WTF that way (plus helps him get to 300),

Doesn't he like Paris though as it's indoors and hence is perfect preparation for the O2?

September 23rd, 2011

Roger Federer announced today that he will not be playing in the Shanghai Masters......"I will miss this amazing tournament and all my loyal Chinese fans, but I look forward to returning to China next fall."
http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2011-09-23/8009.php

HB... for a second I thought this was 2012 before I looked again.

BB.. I would love to see him play Shanghai and skip Paris too.

Nadal (and Ferrer) commit to Beijing.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2012/06/Features/Beijing-Nadal-Ferrer-To-Play.aspx

Protests in China recently, Federer doing right thing by not disrupting the protesters with their political agendas. If only some other ATP players would follow the same route...

Djokovic would shamelessly play in Afghanistan if it meant more prize money etc

If he misses out on the 300 club, there is always the Mile High Club

legendkillarV2 wrote:If he misses out on the 300 club, there is always the Mile High Club

Mirka's NOT that kind of girl

The question is - what is Federer's motivation to push himself hard for/in 2013?

lydian wrote:The question is - what is Federer's motivation to push himself hard for/in 2013?

He wants a 2nd French Open finished off by a bagel on Nadal's soft derriere.

I honestly think Federer will keep playing even with a really low ranking, just seems like the sort of dude who will maintain himself in his mid/late 30's because he loves the game.

lydian wrote:The question is - what is Federer's motivation to push himself hard for/in 2013?

This may or may not be controversial, but I don't think Federer likes playing tennis as much as he does winning. He reminds me a bit of Stephen Hendry; someone who knew they were great and couldn't hack it when their powers waned and they became "mortal". Hendry admitted he loved winning and couldn't handle it when he stopped winning. I hope Federer is different but deep down I don't think he is.

As for his motivation for next year, perhaps another good showing in the majors, perhaps a couple of Masters (picking up the ones he hasn't won?) and see where he is after the WTF.

I'd be surprised to see Federer knocking around the 20s and the 50s in the ranking like Hewitt or somebody. I can see him playing ranked 4 or 5, picking up 1 masters per year, but once he has almost no chance of winning a slam, and if he goes 2 years without say a title win above 250s, I think he would go.

Annacone says that his love for the game remains fierce and contrasts Fed's love for the game with the world-weariness of Sampras in his later years.

For me the first year that Fed fails to qualify for the WTF would be a bit of a rude awakening for him, and I can't imagine him playing too many years without a tournament win, something he has not had to endure since 2000. Unless his performance falls off a cliff you can see him staying in the top 20 and regularly making slam QF's or picking up 500 and 250 wins and possibly threatening at Masters Tournaments for 3-4 years yet.

For me the crunch is likely to come when his children can't travel any more with him because they have to settle down and go to a proper school. I don't know when that comes for Swiss children, perhaps 2014 for the twins?

I would like to see Federer play and get as close and past Rosewall's famed longevity records.

laverfan wrote:I would like to see Federer play and get as close and past Rosewall's famed longevity records.

carrieg4 wrote:

laverfan wrote:I would like to see Federer play and get as close and past Rosewall's famed longevity records.

bit of a catch 22 but I don't want the guy to retire for many more years because I don't think a player who plays like him will ever come around again in my lifetime.

However, I really don't want him to be losing to such average players like Davydenko, Nalbandian are doing at the moment.

It will remind me of Ali, you just wanted him to stop because a fighter as great as him shouldn't be made a fool of which at the end was extremely hard to watch.

When he lost to Haas at Halle, it was the first time I thought 'no, I'm not having that, thats a bad loss, he can't lose anymore of those or he needs stop' Then he goes and wins Wimbledon and becomes number 1! But that was a warning sign for me, where I wouldn't be able to watch the guy float around the 30/40s and get beaten (all due respect to Haas I'm a fan of his game but he's 34!) Nalbandian for me should retire, his game isn't built for the grind, with Hewitt I still enjoy him fighting away, same with Roddick he's tenacity was still inspiring but he was done and I respect him for it. Federer and Nalbandian I do not and will not like watching them scramble around as their superior games mean nothing anymore.

I think Federer is very smart and based on his past management skills, he will make the appropriate choice. The reference to Annacone's comments is very poignant.

Federer is willing to live with his bad days, to play a sport that he loves. I admire him for that.

The contrast with Pete Sampras is very relevant.

Federer has of course talked many times of his huge admiration for Pete, but one significant difference career-wise is the way in which Pete’s motivation, enthusiasm, and indeed performance on the Tour declined dramatically in the ‘twilight’ years, in comparison to Fed himself when at the exact same age. The respective W/L stats are very illustrative of this :

Sampras 2001 : W/L 35-16, Titles 0 ; Federer 2011 : W/L 64-12, Titles 4

Sampras 2002: W/L 27-17, Titles 1 ; Federer 2002 : W/L 59-8, Titles 6*

* up to & inc US Open, ie. when Pete retired

Personally I’ve always felt that Federer may not want to play on if his ranking were to fall below top ten, perhaps even anything outside top five would seem, well ….. ‘unsatisfactory’

But equally I hear what others are saying about his enduring pure love for the game ; indeed Fed himself has often commented on this and there would be absolutely no reason for him to do so if he didn’t mean it.

The most remarkable thing is perhaps that he has retained the level of motivation needed to achieve those W/L stats, when so much of his focus and personal priority must surely have shifted to the pleasures of seeing his twin girls grow up and maximising the time he spends with them. And I do think it’s the girls who have given him the sense of inner calm (not that he was ever agitated !!... except perhaps in his very early years) and more ready acceptance of some of the not-so-good days on court, days which inevitably have come along more frequently over the last couple of years or so.

Yes its clear Federer has an enduring love for the game. But with Sampras we have to realise it was different. Very different, and not enough is made of it in my opinion. Sampras had thalassemia which clearly affected him more as he got older. It made him recover poorly in-between matches and as a result made him have to play much more aggressively to shorten points later in his career as the condition started to dog him more. There was an article in 1996 about Sampras (who would have been 25 at the time, so it wasnt a rear-view article) that commented on his medical condition which was just starting to be speculated on and come out. It went like this...


For the supremely talented Pete Sampras, it is unlikely that any opponent will prove as much of a challenge as thalassemia.

It has been learned that Sampras has an inherited condition that is almost certainly thalassemia, a congenital form of anemia common among people in the Meditteranean. Sampras's mother, Georgia, was born in Greece, and his father, Sam, is of Greek ancestry.

Having that thalassemia means the 25-year old Sampras has a low count of hemoglobin, which carries oxygen in red blood cells. "It's a mild to moderate anemia and you lead a normal life with no reduction in life expectancy," Toronto hematologist Dr. George Kutas explained.

"A weekend hacker probably wouldn't even notice it. There haven't been many world-class athletes with thalassemia, so there's no literature
available on the subject. We don't have studies to prove it, but due to the limited oxygen-carrying capacity, an athlete might get to the point where he could no longer increase his cardiovascular output because of a limited number of red blood cells. That would impair the extra effort required at that top level of sport."

Inhaling oxygen, as is done in some sports, notably football, would not be a solution for Sampras. "That probably wouldn't help," Kutas said, "because there's nothing wrong with the red blood cells carrying the oxygen, it's just that he's not making enough hemoglobin."

What advice would Kutas have for Sampras? "It's obvious that in a long match he gets into more trouble," he said. "One minute he's hunched over leaning on his racquet [as against Alex Corretja in a memorable match at the U.S. Open] and then the next he's serving an ace at 110 miles an hour. I'd basically tell him only to push himself to a certain point."

Should Sampras be watching what he eats? "There's nothing he can really do in terms of diet," Kutas said, "because it's a condition you have from birth-actually it's often misdiagnosed as a lack of iron."

As for the effects on Sampras's career, it's clear that he will continue to have problems when he gets involved in long, exhausting matches. But especially at tournaments such as Wimbledon where the points are over quickly, he should be able to perform well and possibly add to his impressive total of eight Grand Slam wins. If Sampras admits to having thalassemia [which he did a year after this article in 1997], it would help silence critics who have interpreted his frequent physical breakdowns as being the result of poor preparation and conditioning.

"An average couch potato would usually not even be aware of having this form of anemia. But when a world-class athlete pushes himself to the limit in hot weather or long matches, it can sap his resistance. And I need not catalogue the periodic collapses by Sampras in such conditions.

One wonders whether the effects of Pete's anemia will be more apparent from now to the end of his career. I admit this is sheer speculation. But it is no secret that as athletes approach 30 years of age -- Sampras is 26 -- they no longer possess the physical resistance they once did"


..and its that part in bold and the whole article in general that has always rang true for me in regards to Sampras's career. Its always been something that has never been highlighted and discussed enough IMO regarding his career as a whole simply because he did so well otherwise. The guy himself was never someone to talk about himself either so you never got much from him about it. When you look at his career it's clear that after 1999 Sampras went into a relatively rapid decline versus previous years. The titles just suddenly dried up, he wasnt practicing as much, was more injury ridden and was travelling less too. It always seemed to me that his condition robbed him of motivation to maintain and develop his game in his later years. But the death knell to his success was the slowing down of courts, partic. his backyards Wimb & USO, from 2001. Slower conditions were something that had never suited his condition...as his clay career showed despite having an excellent groundstroke game...but so late on in his career there was no way he could toughen up further physically.

With Sampras playing at the baseline more earlier in his career my belief is that the thalassemia affected him more as he aged...particularly beyond 27-28...so his play went more towards the net to keep points and matches as short as possible. He knew he had to embrace this style of play so he and Annacone focussed more on developing this in later years. Also, it would seem likely with that condition that "SuperSaturday's" and long late night matches at USO were generally a killer for him later on...I've always been of the opinion it likely cost him 1 or 2 slams there. His marked decline was noted too by his fellow pro's. In 2001 Kafelnikov said Sampras was embarrassing himself and should retire. In 2002, Rusedski said Sampras was "a step slow" and ''He's just not the same player from the past". Although Sampras was still "only" 30-31 it was plainly clear he had declined remarkably from the player of the 90s.

Anyway, just some thoughts on perhaps why Sampras couldnt remain strong throughout his whole career - and also for me the key reason why he never did well on clay due to stamina issues in long ralleys as mentioned above. For example he famously pushed himself over 5 sets to beat Courier (an excellent clay player and 2 time RG winner 91/92) at RG'96 in the quarters but then was almost dead on his feet against Kafelnikov in the semis...a player who was normally his whipping boy. With Stich in the final you can only speculate if that would have been his year but for his condition.....

Lydian... Federer has back issues, perhaps not as severe as thalassemia. It may become apparent later, but I would abhor to see any player having to retire due to physical/medical problems, whether it Federer's back or Nadal's knees.

As Barry says, the family aspects are also a significant factor. The other 3 in Top 4 have family ties, but as yet are not officially married, and significantly do not have any children yet.

I have this image of Fedal sitting at the Center Court @W or Chatrier @RG, perhaps in 2020 (hindsight, lol), looking fondly on a familiar yet different Final with two young'uns battling for the trophies.

No, not as severe or match debilitating as anaemia. Clearly.
Let's hope Federer can make RIO-2016 as he plans...

Roger Federer today on his page:

"Just heard that over 15yrs ago (9/22/97) as a 16yr old, I made my debut on the ATP rankings...debuting at #803 after picking up 12pts. Here's to another 15yrs on tour....hahahahah"

803 at just turned 15 wasn't bad!

I think it is confirmed that Fed is to play Shanghai but can't remember where I have seen that.

When I first read the original statement I did wonder if he was beginning the process of bowing out - hopefully not for another year at least!

Time please I have also just seen confirmation of his participation, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/735098.shtml life in the old dog yet!

Then he's serious about YE #1 ranking...otherwise he could have easily dropped this one.

lydian wrote:Then he's serious about YE #1 ranking...otherwise he could have easily dropped this one.

That sounds like a reverse, didn't he confirm withdrawal (or was that a rumour?).

Maybe he's also serious about 300.

So long as he's healthy I'm very pleased.

isn't Shanghai sponsored by Rolex? Maybe sponsorship pressure came into play? Missing two years in a row may have been too much

CAS wrote:isn't Shanghai sponsored by Rolex? Maybe sponsorship pressure came into play? Missing two years in a row may have been too much

I'm sure that may well have something to do with it Cas. I hope this means he will definitely skip Paris.

I think if he gets to the semis or further in Shanghai I think he will skip Paris, but if if he wants the YE Number 1 I think he has to win one of the two at least

I would have been surprised if he'd have decided to drop Shanghai. He will have had quite a rest and there's a whole week before he has to play Basel and he'd be really dumping on the promise he made after last year's no-show and upsetting an important part of his sponsorship/fanbase which is unlike him. He has a history of not repeating a disappointing no-show.

The real schedule problem is Paris, and I think we'll see a no-show or an exit at or before the QF there.

I can see him sticking to the masters and the majors with the ocassional tournament thrown in, I think he would rather get to 20 grand slams than stay at number 1 for 300 weeks. He will retire soon as he will want to see his children grow up and take them to school etc

TopoftheChops wrote:I can see him sticking to the masters and the majors with the ocassional tournament thrown in, I think he would rather get to 20 grand slams than stay at number 1 for 300 weeks. He will retire soon as he will want to see his children grow up and take them to school etc

I'm sure you're right, but given that to achieve the latter he just has to win one or two matches at one event, if I were in his place I'd not see popping over to Shaghai for a few days as a moment of decision.

Get it done Roger. Win Shanghai, skip Paris, and head to the WTF for #7!