Can London Welsh qualify for the Heineken cup?

Despite being new boys an injury ravaged London Welsh have won both of their last 2 Aviva Premiership matches. Not even a Sale squad full of big international names could put them off last night. Realistically a mid-table finish is likely, but will this excellent start to the season spur them on to greater things?

Even without the most naturally gifted player in the British Isles (Gavin Henson), they have shown the big boys that they can compete with the best. When double grandslammer Henson returns, it will just add ammunition to an already promising squad. The only problem now (and it's a good problem) is that Henson will have to earn his place back from an inform Gordon Ross.

Praise must also go to Lyn Jones. I'm so glad to see this excellent coach getting the opportunity to show how versatile and good he is on the English Premiership stage.
.
It would not surprise me if LW do qualify for the Heineken cup and Henson to be the seasons top points scorer.
It will go to show that it's a team ethos that brings success and not individuals looking for glory. With a proven team player and grafter like Henson, I see a giant season for LW.
Also well done to the Ospreys last night on battering the Turks. Great night for rugby.

All things are possible. Easier to make an assessment after Christmas, but at the moment it looks like they could stay up which is an acheivment in proving the naysayers wrong

ChequeredJersey wrote:All things are possible. Easier to make an assessment after Christmas, but at the moment it looks like they could stay up which is an acheivment in proving the naysayers wrong

neigh

Now if they could do me a favour and take points off of Sarries or Saints, I'd be very grateful

I'd prefer to see Wasps get back in to the Heiny but if Welsh get there it would be very impressive.

Brilliant win last night btw

No danger Welsh will qualify for the Heinken but they've given themselves every opportunity to stay up with that win last night. Very impressive.

I think it is time for me and alot of others to say sorry to Welsh for not expecting them to get many points at all. Does this show the the gap between the Championship and Premership are much closer then we would like to think.

On the other hand Newcastle are showing there does seem to be a big difference with 3 TBP wins

Brendan wrote:I think it is time for me and alot of others to say sorry to Welsh for not expecting them to get many points at all. Does this show the the gap between the Championship and Premership are much closer then we would like to think.

On the other hand Newcastle are showing there does seem to be a big difference with 3 TBP wins

No, but they could scrap the relegation malarky and have 14 teams in the Premiership. Allowing Newcastle and maybe the Pirates, Leeds or Bristol to be within a shout. You get the feeling they will always be basement teams though (along with Sale and Wuss).

I think it shows the difference between the haves and gave nots. Those with cash are untouchable by those without.

In what way? Unless you have a "sugar daddy" you make your own cash. You grow your own players. Those with the cash and the players have these things because they have earned them. The thing to do is for the have nots to make themselves the haves and become "untouchable". I know it's not as simple as that, but several sides have shown it can be done

ChequeredJersey wrote:In what way? Unless you have a "sugar daddy" you make your own cash. You grow your own players. Those with the cash and the players have these things because they have earned them. The thing to do is for the have nots to make themselves the haves and become "untouchable". I know it's not as simple as that, but several sides have shown it can be done

Read your post out loud to yourself.

Then re write it so it makes sense.

8 th position

Great riposte. Countered my questioning of an unjustified and unsubstantiated absolute general statement by ignoring it. I am only saying this now because you have provoked me but if my post doesn't make sense to you that it is your problem. What aspect of it doesn't make sense? The only bits I can think of are the phrases I have copied straight from your post, which perhaps I should have had entirely in quotation marks, to link it in to what you had posted.

ChequeredJersey wrote:Great riposte. Countered my questioning of an unjustified and unsubstantiated absolute general statement by ignoring it. I am only saying this now because you have provoked me but if my post doesn't make sense to you that it is your problem. What aspect of it doesn't make sense? The only bits I can think of are the phrases I have copied straight

from your post, which perhaps I should have had entirely in quotation marks, to link it in to what you had posted.

Ok CJ

Start by explaining the bit where you state, "it's not quite as simple as that" and maybe the contradictions you make will unfold into hedgemony pros.

My opinion is that the wealthy upper tier of four clubs, tigers, saints, Sarries and Quins have a distinct financial advantage after restructuring their accounts through the sale of club property or investment through wealthy backers that has put them in a far better footing than the second tier of the AP below them.

If they win the Anglo-Welsh Cup they can qualify.

Which I think would be rather fitting.

Am curious - if they managed to win it, and also managed to get relegated, would they be prevented from competing in the H Cup next season?

When I said it's not quite as simple as that, I meant that the picture I wrote, saying that the advantages the top clubs have are predominantly self-wrought and other clubs can put themselves in the top category by following suit, I was not acknowledging how difficult, and reliant on luck sometimes, that can be, and how other factors can get in the way.

However, my point, which is not that different from the one you have more recently made, is that because these clubs (2 of whom were recently relegated and do not have massive external financial backing) have made themselves so well-resourced so can other clubs, and thus it is only in the short term that they are untouchable. 20 out of 38 of Quins' squad are completely home grown. The foreign players they have were astute signings that did not break our budget and in fact our very recent success ( our single AP win ever which is is why I find it odd that suddenly it seems we are in the same bracket as Leicester as some kind of perennial powerhouse!) may screw us over because we look like we will struggle to afford our initially non-expensive squad as their value had gone up so much due to improvements that are by and large internal.

The have nots of 7-8 years ago can become the haves of now (admittedly owning your own stadium helps) so as far as I see the concept of have and have not is artificial and defeatist and self-apologist at heart. If you ( as in "one") try and set up your infrastructure so that you have a stable foundation on which to base future success on you might fail. But you might succeed. And accepting that because you are not one of rugby's elite you are at such a disadvantage that you cannot touch said elite dooms a club to failure because, to quote Chris Martin, "if you never try, you'll never know".

So how many I the top four clubs are regularly beaten by the lowest four?

How many of those clubs don't either own their own stadium, have a huge backer who's investment has changed their fortunes or refinanced by selling millions of pounds worth of rugby club owned land?

There is a gap. Hypothetically it is possible to narrow it for any club in England, if they have enough money.

The salary capos hardly low enough to level the field. LW for example are eighth and running at around £2 mil under the salary cap with little if any opportunity to change.

If your club makes profit you will be at the top of the league if not you will struggle.

The top club not being beaten by the bottom 4 may currently be the case but the top 4 is hardly the consistent group you have made it out to be- The season before last, Gloucester were in there, before that Bath then Irish then
a year when Gloucester, Bath and Wasps were all there and only Tigers were in the top 4 in 4th place. The year before that (only 5 seasons back) Bristol came 2nd. And Saints were relegated. Only Tigers have ever been a constant fixture in this group of 4. The others are recent additions because of steps they have taken to get there.

Owning a stadium helps. (But then, London Welsh own a stadium, I've been there. They just aren't using it). As does a rich heritage (another thing Welsh have). Clubs who have splashed out money on huge signings aren't exactly doing that well- Sale are well backed and bought in Richie Gray and are playing Poopie. Bath have a big backer and hardly look world beaters. Quins are leading the league with a squad that is almost entirely made up of those who played academy rugby when they were relegated and Tigers are close behind with home grown players in key positions and a great club ethos.

It is undoubtedly true that once you get into the bottom 4 it is hard to climb back out. But Saints and Quins and Exeter were all relegated, restructured at a lower level (which anyone can do) and it's worked well for them. Wasps were in the bottom 4 last season and in dire dire financial circumstances. They look as dangerous as anyone in the AP.

And clubs get property to use to restructure through their own endeavour and enterprise. They get backers because people see something worth backing. It's all very well. There is undoubtably some truth in saying that there are haves and have nots. But assuming there is no space to change and nothing that can be done is not only counterproductive but also demonstrably incorrect. And whilst circumstances outside of your control will affect your ability to fight it out at the top (as is true in every single aspect of life), those within one's control can be just as important and blaming outside circumstances for an inability to make a change is shirking responsibility.

maestegmafia wrote:I think it shows the difference between the haves and gave nots. Those with cash are untouchable by those without.

Do you mean the well finances Sale, who've made some big signings this year, could never be beaten by someone like Welsh who have nothing?

Also, do Welsh count as 'haves' because they are owned by wealthy backers who bought their way into the premiership? Or do they not now? Are Exeter 'haves' since they own their own ground and are developing it? Or have nots because they have to be careful with money and are probably beneath the salary cap? Are Northampton have nots because they haven't spent up the salary cap this year.

Are Bath have nots because they didn't qualify for the HEC this year? What about Gloucester? They didn't either.

And fundamentally, what is your point? Clubs that are well managed do better? Isn't this a good thing as we want to encourage well run clubs. Or do you think a local pub team should be able to compete with the premiership sides?

I know "This shows the difference between the 'haves' and the 'have nots'" is your phase for the season but a bit of explanation would be grand.

Guscott agrees with fellow Bathmate Hersh:
(BBC Jeremy show)
"Hi Jeremy, with two wins in a row now for new boys London Welsh, do you think that they have a genuine chance of staying up? And if you do, who do you think will be relegated instead? (Genorious)

Hi G, London Welsh have exceeded my expectation winning those two games and it's great for the competition that they've achieved that so far. However, they are still my favourites to be relegated. "

Would be interesting to know which clubs don't spend up to the salary cap.

I presume London Welsh doesn't and maybe Worcester doesn't but the others.......

Gloucester bringing in the likes of Morgan,Twelvetrees, the Tongan bloke and Cowan etc.

Maestegmafia where's this magical gap?

I'd say the gap is between anyone on this list and anyone not


Top 15 Clubs based on their Revenue.

1. Toulouse
2. Clermont Auvergne
3. Leicester Tigers
4. Stade Francais
5. Racing Metro 92
6. Toulon
7. Brive
8. Montpellier
9. Biarritz Olympique
10. Perpignan
11. Northampton Saints
12. Bayonne
13. Castres Olympique
14. Harlequins
15. Gloucester

Yeah but revenue is an end result. It's not like it magically appears from nowhere

ChequeredJersey wrote:Yeah but revenue is an end result. It's not like it magically appears from nowhere

"Not like it magically appears from Nowhere."

No you are right. Financial earning power seperates these teams from the rest. These clubs always earn more, because they sell more shirts, have better players, have bigger stadiums with more fans, they can afford the best most expensive coaches, have better training facilities etc etc etc.

They are better run businesses. It is impossible for a club like London welsh to be promoted and to compete with them and you can add all other AP teams not on the list above to that group too.

They can stay up this year and build themselves up though, there is a decent Market for them

Hopefully, considering they were the best club in England for years once upon a time.

maestegmafia wrote:I'd say the gap is between anyone on this list and anyone not


Top 15 Clubs based on their Revenue.

1. Toulouse
2. Clermont Auvergne
3. Leicester Tigers
4. Stade Francais
5. Racing Metro 92
6. Toulon
7. Brive
8. Montpellier
9. Biarritz Olympique
10. Perpignan
11. Northampton Saints
12. Bayonne
13. Castres Olympique
14. Harlequins
15. Gloucester

5 of those sides are in the Amlin.

maestegmafia wrote:Hopefully, considering they were the best club in England for years once upon a time.

The first professional club as well, luring players from Wales for big salaries working in *cough* the city. (ok not JPR)

I still fear that if LW continue losing money as they are doing, they will not survive the season.

The minute you see a poster waxing lyrical about Gavin Henson, you know the article is a WUM.

Jimpy wrote:The minute you see a poster waxing lyrical about Gavin Henson, you know the article is a WUM.

Wasn't that the definition of Charlotte giving him a back, sack and crack?

That would be the other way round wouldn't it?

Anyway, its obvious the article is a WUM.

LW have done well in the Jeff so far.
I'm going to Oxford Kassam (sp?) on Sunday to support visitors Glaws.
By Sunday night we'll know more as to if this thread is a wum or if it is a prescient thought for 2013. If the HC is still around by 2013.