Wales truly are the comeback kings of Europe and the World

This is a pretty interesting article on teams overcoming a half time deficit.

http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/story/175744.html

"The emotional Welsh nature responds very readily to early success, but is just as easily depressed when its opponent gets out and up early". So opined the Sportsman's rugby reporter in 1910, inspired by England's victory - launched by a first-minute try - in the first international match at Twickenham.

Sharp analysis or blind prejudice? One test of how well a team responds to adversity is whether it can come from behind to to win. And how often this happens is a question raised by Trevor Ruane from Ireland, to whom thanks.

The answer is necessarily a qualified one. To respond fully, we would need to know the scoring sequence of every match, a level of detail beyond even the considerable resources of Statsguru. But it does give us half-time scores and a means of comparing them with final outcomes.

The answer, taken across Home/Five/Six Nations championship history since 1890 (the first year in which matches were decided on points scored), is that just under one in six of winning teams - 165 out of 1025 - were behind at half-time, while a further 84 were drawing at the interval. More than three-quarters of winning teams - 776 of them - were already ahead at half-time.

It is when we break these figures down by team that they become particularly intriguing. Wales account for by far the largest share of victories from behind, with 49. Scotland are next on 33, followed by France (29), Ireland (28), England (24) and Italy (2). If we compare this to total victories, we see that more than one in five of Wales's championship wins (49 out of 231) have come after trailing at the break compared to just over one in ten (24 out of 235) of England's.

Ireland have been on the receiving end most often, losing 47 matches they were winning at the break. After them come England (35), Scotland (28), Wales (26), France (23) and Italy (6).

It is therefore no great surprise that the fixture likeliest to see the lead changing hands after half-time is Wales v Ireland. Wales have trailed Ireland at the break on 18 occasions before winning - most recently last year and most persistently in the 1980s and 1990s when they performed this party trick four times on five visits to Lansdowne Road between 1986 and 1994. Ireland have turned Wales over seven times. Had every Wales v Ireland championship match finished as it stood at half-time, Ireland would enjoy a 56-51 all-time lead. Instead Wales have 62 wins to Ireland's 45.

But the fixture with the greatest imbalance is Wales v England. It saw the first victory by a team trailing at the break, Wales's 12-11 win on a Cardiff icefield in 1893, clinched by the first international penalty-goal, drop-kicked by Wales's Billy Bancroft. Wales have had the edge in comebacks ever since, 13 times overcoming an interval deficit to win, while England have managed it only twice - and never in Wales. England's two victories from behind were at Twickenham in 1974 and 1980.

By contrast eight of Wales's 13 wins at Twickenham have been from behind at the break. Five of them - 1950,1952,1978,2008 and 2012 - were in Welsh Grand Slam Years. Another, in 1970, saw the first time a championship team had overturned a double-figure interval deficit. Wales, inspired by replacement scrum-half Chico Hopkins, scored 14 points unanswered after trailing 13-3 at the break.

The 2008 Grand Slammers emulated that feat, and these two Welsh victories are among only four occasions on which a double-figure deficit has been overturned. The other two saw France coming back from 11 points behind at Lansdowne Road in 1989, with Patrick Lagisquet scoring two of their four tries, and at Twickenham in 2005, where Dimitri Yachvili kicked all of their points with six penalties.

That Twickenham record underlines two other Welsh distinctions. They have a huge lead in away wins from behind, with 28 to 16 by France, followed by Ireland (13), England (9) and Scotland, who have come from behind 26 times at home but only seven times on the road. Revivals have made a huge contribution to Wales's 11 Grand Slams. Only two, those of 1908 and 1976, were accomplished without at least one win from behind. The teams of 1952, 2008 and 2012 trailed in two of their matches at the break.

England, by contrast, would have lost only three of their 12 Grand Slams - those of 1914, 1928 and 1980 - had half-time scores carried through to the end. Five of France's nine Grand Slams (though none of the three they have won this century) included a recovery, all three of Scotland's and Ireland's second in 2009, although not the first 61 years earlier.

Two victories from behind remains the record for a single season. Having five matches rather than four should make this record vulnerable, but victories from behind have become rarer in the Six Nations era with only 27 in 195 matches (Wales 9, France 5, England and Ireland 4, Scotland 3, Italy 2) since 2000. This compares to the 27 wins from behind in 100 matches during the 1980s, comfortably the most fertile decade for comebacks.

Modern players do, however, lead the all-time standings for involvement in comebacks. Ryan Jones's presence at Twickenham last season was the 8th time he had played in a team that won after trailing at the break, drawing him level with Fabien Pelous (who has also captained most comeback teams, with four). Neil Jenkins and David Young, with seven wins, were the previous record holders while the first to six was the durable Scotsman (and later Liberal Peer) John Bannerman in 1929, followed by a clutch of Irishmen - Jammie Clinch, Mark Sugden and George Stephenson - in the early 1930s.

They remain their national record holders, while the English comeback record is shared by two men with north-eastern roots and four wins, wing Rory Underwood and 1960s midfield back Mike Weston. Fourteen of the 25 players with six comeback wins or more are Welsh. Those most on the receiving end are overwhelmingly Irish. They lost after a half-time lead 11 times in 28 matches between 1986 and 1992, including a single-season record of three in 1986. Little wonder that three stalwarts of that era, Michael Kiernan, Donal Lenihan and Brendan Mullin, hold the record for this particular form of rugby mortification, with 11 defeats. It is a long way down the list to the first non-Irishman, that fine English hooker Peter Wheeler (7).

If Wales are the team to be beware when leading at half-time, it is generally unprofitable to be drawing with France, who have won 29 times out of 35 from an interval deadlock. This includes all 12 times against Scotland (whose overall record is a grim 9 wins and 26 defeats and also includes 9 defeats from 11 half-time draws against England) and eight times out of nine against Wales, the single exception the Stade Colombes loss to a Rees Stephens-inspired team which deprived France of its first championship and Grand Slam in 1954.

Wales have the edge in head to heads with other opponents, while the exception to Scotland's second-half misery is a record of three wins to nil from half-time stalemates against Ireland. (This analysis excludes matches which have been draws at both half-time and full-time).

If we extend the winning-from-behind category to all international matches, Wales still lead, with 64 comeback victories to 56 for France and 50 for New Zealand.

To finish where we started, with The Sportsman's ethnic theorist of 1910, it would seem that he was about as accurate as most sports analysts drawing on such stereotypes, particularly those casting a none-too-perceptive eye on smaller neighbours.

Interesting to see that Ryan Jones is the most bounce-back-able player in international rugby.

Makes it even more important that he is fit for the Ireland game, we may have a deficit to catch to take him from the joint best.

Interesting read.

Great article.

One man's comeback king is another man's sluggish starter and poor adapter until the coaches have had a chance to shout at them and point out what they are doing wrong.

gelodge wrote:One man's comeback king is another man's sluggish starter and poor adapter until the coaches have had a chance to shout at them and point out what they are doing wrong.

Howley obviously isn't a very good shouter.

gelodge wrote:One man's comeback king is another man's sluggish starter and poor adapter until the coaches have had a chance to shout at them and point out what they are doing wrong.

..and then Phillips scores in the corner and semi finals here we come

rainbow-warrior wrote:

gelodge wrote:One man's comeback king is another man's sluggish starter and poor adapter until the coaches have had a chance to shout at them and point out what they are doing wrong.

..and then Phillips scores in the corner and semi finals here we come

Where they self-destructed.

"One man's comeback king is another man's sluggish starter and poor adapter until the coaches have had a chance to shout at them and point out what they are doing wrong.."

That's the way I read it, too. We always start series poorly, which is one reason I'm pessimistic about the Ireland game.

I'm not sure if I agree with this article's definition of a comeback, being just one or two points behind at HT wouldn't really meet my definition, it's little more than the ebb & flow of a tight match (particularly with a strong wind). I think the proportion of teams that have won after being behind by a try or more would be more interesting.

hawalsh wrote:I'm not sure if I agree with this article's definition of a comeback, being just one or two points behind at HT wouldn't really meet my definition. I think the proportion of teams that have won after being behind by a try or more would be more interesting.

Well it does say that only 3 times have team recovered from being 10pts down in the 6Ns

5*

nice article. an interesting read

wales606 wrote:

hawalsh wrote:I'm not sure if I agree with this article's definition of a comeback, being just one or two points behind at HT wouldn't really meet my definition. I think the proportion of teams that have won after being behind by a try or more would be more interesting.

Well it does say that only 3 times have team recovered from being 10pts down in the 6Ns

It's 4 times, 2 by Wales (1970 & 2008), 2 by France (1989 & 2005). That puts noteworthy comebacks at 1 in 256 for winning teams.

No wonder Wales get lumped with the sheep shaggers tag with all these conquests coming from behind.

Interesting read. Conversely, do you have the figures for those more often leading who snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:No wonder Wales get lumped with the sheep shaggers tag with all these conquests coming from behind.

Interesting read. Conversely, do you have the figures for those more often leading who snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

That is mentioned in the article. Ireland are by far the worst of the 6N

That is in Europe but do you have any stats for all the teams in the world? Australia are pretty adept at come behind victories because they are used to punching above their own weight. Not to mention when they were the best for a lot of the 90s.

monwy wrote:

wales606 wrote:

hawalsh wrote:I'm not sure if I agree with this article's definition of a comeback, being just one or two points behind at HT wouldn't really meet my definition. I think the proportion of teams that have won after being behind by a try or more would be more interesting.

Well it does say that only 3 times have team recovered from being 10pts down in the 6Ns

It's 4 times, 2 by Wales (1970 & 2008), 2 by France (1989 & 2005). That puts noteworthy comebacks at 1 in 256 for winning teams.

Which explains why even on a slow news day that definition wasn't used as the premise of an article.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:That is in Europe but do you have any stats for all the teams in the world? Australia are pretty adept at come behind victories because they are used to punching above their own weight. Not to mention when they were the best for a lot of the 90s.

Well its mentions the top 3 - Wales, France and New Zealand

Sorry, meant the other way round. Teams leading who end up losing. Australia have always been there or thereabouts and have lost a lot of times by only a couple of points against NZ alone in the last few years.

I would've thought Scotland for Europe would be above Ireland in that regard.

mzan wrote:

rainbow-warrior wrote:

gelodge wrote:One man's comeback king is another man's sluggish starter and poor adapter until the coaches have had a chance to shout at them and point out what they are doing wrong.

..and then Phillips scores in the corner and semi finals here we come

Where they self-destructed.

Self destructed??? Bizarre phrase to use for what really happened...!

France were just the better side on the day.

hawalsh wrote:I'm not sure if I agree with this article's definition of a comeback, being just one or two points behind at HT wouldn't really meet my definition, it's little more than the ebb & flow of a tight match (particularly with a strong wind). I think the proportion of teams that have won after being behind by a try or more would be more interesting.

TeamA Mounts Heroic Comeback

TeamA (12) 31 - 30 (13) TeamB

TeamA clawed their way back from a seemingly insurmountable halftime 1 point deficit in front of a testing home crowd today to claim a famous comeback win. The first half saw them score only 2 tries to TeamB's impressive 1 and 2 penalties, giving TeamB a controlling lead. In the second half however teamA showed indomitable spirit and skill to rack up another try and 4 penalties, whereas TeamB only managed a further 3 tries. TeamA's supporters were shocked and jubilant at such an extravagant fightback feat and their team's demonstration of will in the face of impossible adversity.

I think this is why Welsh fans have such blind optimism on Wales winning,
i personally always had the notion no matter what club form or International form that if you give a Welsh team half a chance they will take it.

I think it's a shame that since the 6 Nations, nobody is giving Wales half a chance. It's not fair.

Cyril on 606v2 wrote:France were just the better side on the day.

Would expect little else from you

So in the winning from behind stakes it goes Wales, France and New Zealand....

Just goes to show some teams are poor starters and some are good finishers.

However some teams would do better than Wales at come back wins but are handicapped by being better than the other team and so leading at 1/2 time as well as at the end of the game.

[quote="nganboy"]However some teams would do better than Wales at come back wins but are handicapped by being better than the other team and so leading at 1/2 time as well as at the end of the game.[/quote

Fortunately we have a recent example to show how a certain team struggles to come back from a half time deficit

That only happens once every 15 years or so though. That's a hell of a long time to wait.

Right nganboy?

Good point, when was the last time Aus were leading a game at half time against them LB?

Who knows Pete. Probably 27 August 2011 in the 25-20 win.

The main thing is we have a (nearly) 6 times better record at beating them (41 times v 7 times) which is recorded in the books.
That actually surprises me... feels like a lot less but that's what it is.

One of the most admirable characteristics of the Austrialian people is that they dont like to dwell on the past.

For example they have moved well on from their history as a prison colony and pickling Tasmanians

(yes I am being a jerk :p)

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:One of the most admirable characteristics of the Austrialian people is that they dont like to dwell on the past.

For example they have moved well on from their history as a prison colony and pickling Tasmanians

(yes I am being a jerk :p)

Yup they got rid of the idiots who used it as a prison in the first place.

In answer to the first question. No, like most of the stats they aren't at the top. No surprises who is, NZ.

Wales have won more match coming from behind at half time. But it's a function of the number of games they've played, the quality of the opposition and the number of times they've been behind at half time, rather than there ability to get out of trouble.

Wales have one into half time in deficit 277 times according to scrum.com's database. They've gone onto win 64 of these games. That's a ratio of almost 1 in 4 games (or 23%). It's still away behind NZ who have won 50 out of 123 games they trailed at half time (2 out of 5 or 41%). They also trail the boks, but are marginally ahead of France and Australia (both about 1 in 5).

In terms of coming from more than a try down. It's a similar story. It's been much worse for the welsh under the current scoring system (since June 1992).

gelodge wrote:One man's comeback king is another man's sluggish starter and poor adapter until the coaches have had a chance to shout at them and point out what they are doing wrong.

Sounds like the Ospreys all over.

Some interesting stats and the one variable that is both key and impossible to define is the contribution of the refereeing interpretation in these games.

It is interesting the number of 6N grandslams there have been in the professional era compared to the previous hundred years - a major difference the introduction of SH refs.