Djokovic in Nadals rear-view mirror

For the last few years it has been discussed whether Nadal can catch Federer in terms of greatness, can he catch his slam record?

Just 5 slams separated them them after the 2012 French Open and with the Spaniard being 5 years younger it was looking increasingly likely.

Of course there was still weeks at Number 1 but with 5 years to make up ground and with his superior head 2 head it had been said that perhaps Nadal only needed to make it close in terms of statistics to go down as the greater player, and perhaps the greatest of them all.

Fast forward 7 months, Federer has managed to widen the gap to 6 slams, added another chunk of weeks at World Number 1, and in the meantime a certain Serb collected a sixth grand slam, moving him within 5 slams of Nadal.

As is stands, the Spaniard has 102 weeks at Number 1 falling very short of Federer's new tally of 302. However, the Serbian has snuck up to 66 weeks just 36 weeks shy of Nadal.

At the end of 2012 Novak achieved his second successive year end Number 1, equalling him with Rafa, and in the mean time collected his 2nd year end end championship, a title that has so far eluded the Spaniard.

Quite incredibly, for so long the talk was if Rafa could surpass Roger, in the mean time Novak has snuck up on Rafa and is gaining on him at a much faster pace than Nadal is on Federer.

Their head to head is at the moment 19-14 to the Spaniard, but over the coming years were that to change and the likelihood that Novak will have more weeks at number 1 than Rafa when their careers are done, it could be quite conceivable Djokovic eventually eclipses Nadal's career. Especially if he were to get the French Open before his career is out.

It had been refuted by many Federer fans that Nadal could surpass Federer citing Weeks at Number 1 and 5-Year end Number 1 rankings.

The amazing thing is, Djokovic could come within just a few slams of Nadal, and when all is said and done could have a superior head 2 head record over him. And unlike Federer, Nadal may not be able to boast a longer period at Number 1 with Djokovic looking likely to surpass Nadal in that department also.

Seems quite inconceivable a few years ago, but Djokovic still has a few things to do but if he does we could be looking back on Djokovic being the better player almost out of nowhere. It could be quite similar to Lendl, McEnroe and Borg, with McEnroe chasing down Borg before actually being caught himself by Lendl.

As it stands, Nadal is more at risk of being caught by Djokovic than Federer is by Nadal. However, Nadal may have one final say in the matter in the coming years himself

If Djoko were to win the FO this year, he would almost certainly surpass Rafa for weeks at No 1 later this year, as well as completing the career slam.
It would be a significant step towards catching Rafa, but it's still a big 'if' -thus far Djoko only has 1 FO final to his name.

It's fair to say Djoko can already be considered the greater hard court player of the two.

Some very well-made interesting points CAS, and my first thought was that the picture you have painted is very likely to be further complicated ... by a certain A. Murray.

Djokovic and Nadal will almost certainly find themselves getting in each other's way as regards making & breaking respective records - but Murray has the potential to get in the way of both of them.

Within just a few months of his return, Rafa will be 27. Suddenly no longer the fresh-faced exciting new talent who lit up the tennis world seemingly from nowhere, as a teenager. We know just how quickly the Slams dry up after the age of 30 - sure, there is the occasional 'swansong' win, a la Sampras and Federer, but the reality is that there have been very, very few multi-Slammers after hitting the big 3-0. Only Rosewall, Laver, and Agassi (I think ....?) throughout the Open era, so past examples are few & far between across a long span of 44 years.

For me this points clearly to the fact that Nadal has just 2/3 years left to amass Slams, and Djokovic himself not much more. And whilst nobody knows for sure just how long Nadal will be able to contest Slams, the general consensus is that his body will age more quickly than many other players.

There is, however, another key factor that might prove to be very significant (and favourably so) as regards the longevity of the Djokovic/Nadal/Murray triumvirate in terms of ultimate Slam count: just where is the challenge to their strangehold and dominance going to come from....?? Just where is the new talent to threaten these three ....? Time for the next generation to shake things up please ......

Isn´t this just the problem though lags. ? Those at the top were propelled there by sheer hard work and talent.. and it says much that though Rafa has been out of the game for 6/7mths that he remains at No.5. Take the ages of the top 5. Novak coming up 26, Fed coming up 32, Andy 25/26? Ferrer 31 and Rafa 27 in June... almost unheard of a few years back. Unless a surprisingly new talent emerges within the next 12mths there is nothing to threaten. The only changes to come about will be (God forbid) Rafa calls it a day..and Roger retires. (Almost unthinkable) but what can you see that will change the Status Quo. Who out there at the moment is capable of making the necessary physical and mental investment that these players have done over the last decade.

Haddie-nuff wrote:Who out there at the moment is capable of making the necessary physical and mental investment that these players have done over the last decade.

That question deserves a separate thread, as the issue may be wider than the current crop of players.

All I know is that things change surprisingly. Sometimes predicting forward seems so easy; I mean, Djokovic won the AO easily so why not continue?

It doesn't work like that though; injury comes from nowhere, a new player may just put that 5% on that turns him from also-ran to contender (step forward Tomic?). The game may change in courts or equipment.

Anyway, all I'm saying is that stuff changes. When Federer was 27 I thought 22 Slams was doable, but he had that awful 2008 and really hasn't been at the front since then. Nadal has these injury breaks and maybe from one he won't come back properly. Djokovic could ping something one day and lose his elasticity, without which he's half the player.

My guess is that Nadal will finish ahead of Djokovic.

As you mention, it all depends on what condition Rafa returns in.

If his slam winning days are over, then I think Novak can possibly catch him on the slam tally but my hunch is he may come up just short (maybe a total of 10).

If Rafa wins even one more slam though, I think it becomes much less likely that Novak will catch him.

Weeks at #1 I think Novak will beat Rafa, whatever condition he returns in. I just think Novak is the more consistent player.

HM Murdoch wrote:As you mention, it all depends on what condition Rafa returns in.

If his slam winning days are over, then I think Novak can possibly catch him on the slam tally but my hunch is he may come up just short (maybe a total of 10).

If Rafa wins even one more slam though, I think it becomes much less likely that Novak will catch him.

Weeks at #1 I think Novak will beat Rafa, whatever condition he returns in. I just think Novak is the more consistent player.

I'm fairly sure Nadal will never be #1 again, so that's in the bag for Djokovic.

bogbrush : you mention Tomic and he is perhaps as good an example as any, of a player who could very possibly make the big break-through.

12 months on from his first AO meeting with Federer, he was clearly able to put up a much more respectable fight this time. In fact I commented on the post-match thread that there were a couple of occasions when Fed was left scrambling (still a rare sight, even these days...) to just get a his racquet on Tomic winners.

Federer comfortably won the match with room to spare, as we saw. He had far too much for Tomic. BUT with their respective careers now in opposite trajectories I suspect that Tomic was the one who ultimately took away much more from that encounter. As well as from the confidence-building unbeaten run of ten matches that had immediately preceded it.

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I'm fairly sure Nadal will never be #1 again, so that's in the bag for Djokovic.

Hmmm .... that's a bold claim bb. Personally I'm not nearly so sure

If you're right - and you could well be - it would leave him at around only 7th/8th (??) on the roll-call of most weeks at Number One. A long way down the list, especially in relation to what so many folk, me included, thought would ensue after he took three Slams in 2010 .........

I too will make a bold statement... IF.. and its a big IF... Rafa returns to full health then he could well be No.1. again.. though it will take some doing and will be a while off.. however, and this is the nubb., if his knees let him down again during the next few months ..then no and that being the case I think Rafa will retire. As for Novak I am not so optimistic.. Novak likes to be chased, threatened, challenged whatever word you like to use.. without that and Im sorry Craig Im not sure that Andy IS the man for the job.(.Im still not toally convinced ).I think Novak might get complacent.

When Rafa comes back I could see him getting a few drubbings from Novak if they were to meet around the Qfs in Indian Wells or Miami

I still think that people are being rather generous to Tomic.

At Tomic's age, Rafa, Novak and Andy were taking not just sets but even the occasional match from a prime Federer.

Tomic was quite comfortably beaten in straights by a 31 year old Fed. The fact it was a better performance than last time does little to persuade me that he has what it takes to make it at the very top, at least while Novak, Fed, Andy and Rafa are around.

At present, Janowicz is the one who I most like the look of. He's 22 but I think a big obstacle for him has been financing travel and coaching. Now he's earned some decent money, I'm hopeful he may move up the rankings.

But I've digressed from the subject!

Fair enough Hn. However, if it isn't to be Andy to challenge Novak then it is fair to say that Novak has the No.1 spot for the forseeable future ie a year or two. We know Ferrer wont be a challenger and the same can virtually be said of Tsonga, Berdych and Del Potro etc so a challenger to Novak seems some way off and by that time Novak will have amassed perhaps an extra 50 to 100 weeks at No.1. It does come at a odd time writing Andy off considering he has reached the last three slam finals (winning one) and winning the Olympics. Just saying Hn.....

CAS wrote:When Rafa comes back I could see him getting a few drubbings from Novak if they were to meet around the Qfs in Indian Wells or Miami

Who in their right mind would expect any other... Good Lord !!! give the man a break !!

Hear what you say HMM, (and I'm digressing too !) but not everyone can develop at the same pace as the big four, and that's why they've been the big four for so long now surely.....? I think what people are saying about Tomic is not that he's about to become a top star BUT that he quite possibly has the potential to cause a significant upset or two reasonably soon. He has already beaten Djokovic, albeit not in a big match and Bo3 only, and could do the same in a Bo5 I feel. For me he is top ten material, at least.

If 2011 is anything to go by Novak won all his six encounters with Rafa and started of 2012 with the AO against him, so unless Rafa can find his form pretty quick I think there is every chance he could run away with it and that could include clay results.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

CAS wrote:When Rafa comes back I could see him getting a few drubbings from Novak if they were to meet around the Qfs in Indian Wells or Miami

Who in their right mind would expect any other... Good Lord !!! give the man a break !!

It was in reference to the head 2 head aspect I was talking about, don't think I warranted that response thanks. I do not slate players, it was just an observation and and feared for Rafas confidence

CaledonianCraig wrote:Fair enough Hn. However, if it isn't to be Andy to challenge Novak then it is fair to say that Novak has the No.1 spot for the forseeable future ie a year or two. We know Ferrer wont be a challenger and the same can virtually be said of Tsonga, Berdych and Del Potro etc so a challenger to Novak seems some way off and by that time Novak will have amassed perhaps an extra 50 to 100 weeks at No.1. It does come at a odd time writing Andy off considering he has reached the last three slam finals (winning one) and winning the Olympics. Just saying Hn.....

Craig Im not writing Andy off at all.. the match up between him and Novak is exactly what Im saying.. the "challenge" that Andy represents not only in terms of match-up but in terms of "I want your No.1. Spot" is the very thing that Novak thrives on. In my mind its going to have to be someone who takes Novak out of his comfort zone and Andy doesn´t .. my opinion Craig its nothing to do with underestimating Andy as a player.

Rafa has come back from other breaks and hit form very quickly. Yes, this has been a long one but personally I would never underestimate him.

If we are talking about the No.1 spot here then as a Murray fan I'd sooner see him retire having won say 5 slams and never been to No.1 than end on 1 slam and reach world No.1.

CAS wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:

CAS wrote:When Rafa comes back I could see him getting a few drubbings from Novak if they were to meet around the Qfs in Indian Wells or Miami

Who in their right mind would expect any other... Good Lord !!! give the man a break !!

It was in reference to the head 2 head aspect I was talking about, don't think I warranted that response thanks. I do not slate players, it was just an observation and and feared for Rafas confidence

Then I apologise Cas but it was the word "drubbings" that provoked the response.. I do expect that Rafa will suffer several defeats in the early days of his return.. but "drubbing" is not the word I would have used.

lags72 wrote:I think what people are saying about Tomic is not that he's about to become a top star BUT that he quite possibly has the potential to cause a significant upset or two reasonably soon. He has already beaten Djokovic, albeit not in a big match and Bo3 only, and could do the same in a Bo5 I feel. For me he is top ten material, at least.

I can perhaps see him as top ten but that is more to do with the fact that 'top ten' is a somewhat debased currency! If the likes of Almagro and Monaco can hover around the top ten, then there's no reason to think that Tomic won't.

It's as a genuine contender for titles that I'm not convinced.

[quote="HM Murdoch"]I still think that people are being rather generous to Tomic.



I think I have to agree with you HMM .. I personally think its grabbing at straws in view of the fact there is little else out there to latch on to.

yeah I can concede 'drubbing' was a bad choice of words, to be honest I do get the impression that Nadal doesn't care too much about where he stands in history, and is just proud of what he has achieved. Whereas Federer I think does enjoy chasing records down

:

CAS wrote:yeah I can concede 'drubbing' was a bad choice of words, to be honest I do get the impression that Nadal doesn't care too much about where he stands in history, and is just proud of what he has achieved. Whereas Federer I think does enjoy chasing records down

I think Rafa will be happy to be back on court, hopefully, pain free and playing to the best of his ability. I just hope it is something he can put behind him and move on ... but Im fearful for him nonetheless.

Small steps is what it has to be all about for Rafa. Ease himself back in gently and build from there.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Small steps is what it has to be all about for Rafa. Ease himself back in gently and build from there.

I agree Craig.. slowly slowy catcheee monkeee (no disrespects to Novak intended !!! )

I don't know about Nadal's condition or how he will play when he comes back, so it is difficult to speculate. I think Novak will surpass Nadal at weeks at number 1, the way the guy has been looking in terms of consistency in terms of being 57-0 at slams against guys outside the top 4 he is virtually a lock to at least reach the semis of every tournament he enters regardless of the surface. In terms of weeks at #1 Novak being better on indoors, outdoor hardcourts while highly proficient on clay and grass makes it hard for Nadal to think of getting that title back from him.

About the grandslam #, that one his hard to predict I wouldn't be surprised if he got more than 11 slams but as others have said the sport of tennis is highly fickle, although in the modern game we see players attaning success later in their careers but more able to maintain a consistent level of performance.

another interesting fact could be when all these guys hang up their rackets and people look back of the era of the famous 'big 4' Novak is likely to have a winning head 2 head over all of them, nice little feather in his cap. And Roger a losing head 2 to all of them. Of course age will be a factor but I don't think its something the great man will like mentioned in the coming years

socal1976 wrote:I think Novak will surpass Nadal at weeks at number 1, the way the guy has been looking in terms of consistency in terms of being 57-0 at slams against guys outside the top 4

Is that what the figure is? 57-0? If so - wow!

last one being Berdych at Wimbledon 2010?

Yep last loss came in the semis to berdych at wimbeldon in 2010. I mean a big 4 guy can beat him in a slam, but Djokovic is trouncing the field so easily that he is a virtual lock for a semi in every tourney he enters regardless of the surface. Sure he can lose a match here or there against the outside guys particularly in 3 sets. But that type of consistent domination of the field Nadal and murray are going to find it hard to match.

CAS, you are right about that although murray is close enough that if he gets on a roll he could overturn that. Plus the X factor as everyone says is in what condition Nadal comes back. This is the longest layoff he has suffered so we have to see. But i think Novak if he plays Nadal enough will certainly overturn that head to head and the same goes for federer. But Roger I think might not be around that much longer.

[. But i think Noak if he plays Nadal enough will certainly overturn that head to head and the same goes for federer. But Roger I think might not be around that much longer.[/quote]


Oh thankds Socal.. now there is the kiss of death... what a jobs comforter you are

What exactly do you find objectionable with my comment Haddie, I wasn't the one who first mentioned Novak reversing the h2h against federer and Nadal. So what is wrong with my observation where do you disagree?

Frankly I don't even understand what your last line even means, can you explain and I am not trying to be sarcastic.

Sorry I mis-read your last sentence

But Roger I think might not be around that much longer..

I read it as Roger I think will be around that much longer

No problem Haddie I guess that is why I was confused i didn't know what the issue was, no worries.

I might just be stating the obvious for the open-minded on here, but should Nole manage the FO feat this year -well, records, watch out! Nadal's standing - a forgone conclusion, and then witness a garson turn whale at elsewhere referred to mt Olympus

Nice post walktall, and good of you to drop in. If Novak wins the FO I think we will start to see some crazy speculation as to the calendar year grandslam, although it will be wildly premature. Frankly I would put Novak as the favorite at RG despite Nadal's 7 titles on the surface. Novak has become and excellent clay court player. Last year he had a poor clay court season and still reached the finals of RG, but we know that he had a lot of family issues with a sick father and death of his grandfather all going down at that time, and withdrawing from his own tournament in belgrade as a result. I would be stunned if Novak didn't have a significantly better clay court season this year than last year and he was still very close to Nadal in that final so I put Novak as a clear RG favorite.

walktall2209 wrote:....and then witness a garson turn whale at elsewhere referred to mt Olympus

Sorry, what does that mean?

H-n : I agree 100% that Roger may not be around much longer. In fact I felt at one point that calling it a day at the end of 2012 might have been a good time to go. Retiring as current Wimbledon champ, having held the World Number one spot just a few short months ago, still with a positive h2h v the new "king" Djokovic, a couple of very recent wins against Nadal, and no Slam losses to Murray.

Instead he has chosen at his advanced age to expose himself to a potential succession of losses to his main rivals. He tells us that he still relishes these challenges, that his appetite for the tour (and carting his family around the world) is undimmed ; and that, quite simply, he just loves being on court. It would be ridiculous to suppose that he is just feeding us lies, there would be no reason to do so given all his stellar achievements. However I question just how much he will continue to love being on court once the Slam defeats start coming not in Finals, semis or even quarters - but earlier still.

Clearly we're in a transitional* period, so anything can happen

* post-Federer, Nadal compromised, no new candidate.

bogbrush wrote:Clearly we're in a transitional* period, so anything can happen

* post-Federer, Nadal compromised, no new candidate.

As in transitional do you mean weak? I could remember argueing with a certain astute poster who claimed that it was silly to call any era weak.

JM, with your designation, I should expect you to be better acquainted with the "elsewhere" content It was a praise/dig at people promptly responding to it, respectively Greetings from Serbia, I thoroughly enjoy 606v2. It has made an entertaining read for years now!

Nice to see posting walktall, keep posting we need more fans of Novak in here.

Will make it a point to, Social. Can anybody inform me if I am right in believing that once known as Mac the knife is in fact a certain notable poster on here now. Were it so, that should prove very inspiring for posting more

Not aware, of that poster Walktall. But I am glad you are going to make a point to post more. It is a beautiful time to be a fan of tennis and fan of Novak.

Were you not around on the original 606 back in say 2006-7?

I signed on to old 606 around late 07 or early 08 if I remember correctly, but my memory is a bit hazy so I might have missed that poster or I have forgotten, because my memory starts to fade. I posted under socalfootiefan and fa.