Who is for the Drop?

First topic message reminder :

Folks,

Wrong thread if you want to read about the possibility of Champions League football next season. This is all about the basement end where the muck and bullets are flying and all that matters is survival.

Interested in views as to who is going down. We can follow (changing) predictions and developments over the remainder of the season.

I'll start things off with my teams for the Drop:

* QPR - already some way behind and I just don't see them scoring the goals they desperately need. I'm also not convinced by Cesar between the sticks - some good saves but too Tefloneque (ie non stick) for my liking.

* Reading - don't see enough leaders on the pitch. Disastrous result yesterday as well.

* Southampton - managerial and playing inexperience may cost them dear allowing others to scramble free.

FreekShow wrote:Olly, did you get a decent view of the Holt tackle/foul? Apparently it was a bad one.

Not really but it didn't seem bad, none of the Swansea players really reacted or surrounded the ref. Chico rolled from touchline to touchline, that's all I saw

I'm only going by what Garth Crooks said or more specifically how much of an issue he had with it, as you can imagine.

Just read a match report and it wasn't reported so it can't have been that bad.

I'd never ever go by what Garth Crooks says. Man is the worst pundit on the TV.

Olly wrote:I'd never ever go by what Garth Crooks says. Man is the worst pundit on the TV.

I suspect his contract guarantees he's paid for every word he says!

Meanwhile, still so very tight at the basement end. Fascinating stuff.

Another team not getting much of a mention but far from out of it at the moment is Newcastle on 33 points. Important they pick up 3 more this afternoon at home to Fulham ....

guildfordbat wrote:

Olly wrote:I'd never ever go by what Garth Crooks says. Man is the worst pundit on the TV.

I suspect his contract guarantees he's paid for every word he says!

that was a very.. very very very very very very very very very very bad tackle. he was very very very very very very very very very very very lucky to escape a red card there

guildfordbat wrote:Meanwhile, still so very tight at the basement end. Fascinating stuff.

Another team not getting much of a mention but far from out of it at the moment is Newcastle on 33 points. Important they pick up 3 more this afternoon at home to Fulham ....

Huge game today. Win and we should be safe but we never make it easy and picking up the boys after Benfica might be difficult. We can`t afford to go into the Sunderland game only being on 33pts.

An away draw at Anfield for the Hammers.... Fairly negative stuff, but even so Collison nearly nicked it for us at the end. Up to 37 points and getting ever closer to safety.

De Canio sporting some truly shocking knitwear. That's got to be worth at least a booking.

QPR, whatever happens the rest of the way, must be breaking some sort of PL record for length of time played with only ten men.
Suicidal.

Man Utd (h)
QPR (a)
Norwich (h)
Sunderland (a)
Spurs (h)
Southampton (a)

That is Stoke's run in. Jesus!

10 man QPR take the lead against Wigan. If that stays the same a good result for QPR of course but also for Sunderland, Villa, Norwich, Stoke.

Cancel that as Wigan equalise. QPR will be gutted, point is of little use to them. Meanwhile, Sunderland, Villa, Norwich and Stoke feeling more uncomfortable...

Redknapp looks like he's swallowed a skunk.
Love it!

Olly,
Remember, they'll only be playing 10 men at QPR . . . . . Stoke'll be alright.

Results at the bottom today don't change things much. QPR and Reading running out of road. A home draw against Liverpool doesn't help Reading.

Aston Villa's home draw not ideal for them either. Norwich a predictable loss against Arsenal. Saints and Hammers will both be happy enough with a point which gets them both ever closer to safety.

Will probably lose to utd.

So will need at least 4 points from Sunderland home, Norwich away, going into last 2 games, home to Chelsea and away to Wigan.

A point nearer the finish line though Westy. That Wigan game could be massive but I feel you'll be safe by then.

kwinigolfer wrote:Redknapp looks like he's swallowed a skunk.

Just spotted this from Kwini.

Must be a strong runner for comment of the season.

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:Results at the bottom today don't change things much. QPR and Reading running out of road. A home draw against Liverpool doesn't help Reading.

Aston Villa's home draw not ideal for them either. Norwich a predictable loss against Arsenal. Saints and Hammers will both be happy enough with a point which gets them both ever closer to safety.

The Corporal's orders above are spot on.

Sunderland and Stoke will be sucked into further trouble if they don't get anything out of their games today at Newcastle and home to Man Utd respectively.

Wigan will have 2 games in hand tonight on all their relegation rivals although that's not a patch on points!

Very interesting and looking like it will stay that way for some time yet ....

Wigan are away to Man City wednesday.

Hopfully City will beat them.

Hoping for Newcastle & Man Utd wins.

Hope I'm wrong, but can see Sunderland getting a point.

Sunderland gain a comprehensive victory over Newcastle. Puts the pressure on Wigan again. But if Wigan can continue their good form then looks like panic all round with the possibility that 40 + will be needed for survival.

There again, Stoke may continue to play really badly.....

Not the best weekend for Villa.

There run in now reads - Utd (a), Sunderland (h), Norwich (a), Chelsea (h), Wigan (a).

Three huge games in there, and two anything is a bonus from. Gotta think they missed out yesterday

QPR, Reading and Norwich to go down I think

Olly wrote:Not the best weekend for Villa.

There run in now reads - Utd (a), Sunderland (h), Norwich (a), Chelsea (h), Wigan (a).

Three huge games in there, and two anything is a bonus from. Gotta think they missed out yesterday

At least we know where 3 points are coming from.

westisbest wrote:

Olly wrote:Not the best weekend for Villa.

There run in now reads - Utd (a), Sunderland (h), Norwich (a), Chelsea (h), Wigan (a).

Three huge games in there, and two anything is a bonus from. Gotta think they missed out yesterday

At least we know where 3 points are coming from.

We'll take a point each and keep it civil West

Deal.

Hope Stoke or Wigan go down.

Predictable Wigan loss to Man City - tho it was a late winner.

West Ham up to 39 points with their draw against Man U.

Wigan's season ends with 5 games in 15 days, including the FA Cup Final and the final day clash with Villa.

Tough run in

Olly wrote:Wigan's season ends with 5 games in 15 days, including the FA Cup Final and the final day clash with Villa.

Tough run in

Shades of Middlesbrough 1997. Tough ask indeed.

our run in.

man utd a 0
sunderland h 1
norwich a 3 (sorry olly)
chelsea h 0
wigan a 1

my prediction.

I'll do my predo of our run in then

Reading (H) - 3 pts
Stoke (A) - 1 pts
Villa (H) - 1 pts
WBA (H) - 1 pts
City (A) - 0 pts

I see us ending up on 41 points. I'd fancy us to beat West Brom at home but I don't wanna go against the form book

A big worry for me also is goal difference, if it comes,down to that, then we're fooked.

18th spot is between Villa, Stoke, Sunderland, Wigan.

Norwich etc will be,ok.

Good point on goal difference West. Could be a big factor, with it being so tight.

I'm not so sure we'll be ok like you say, but I'd like to think we can get 2 wins from our 3 home games, with our home form being good all season

Difficult to predict how many points needed to get you safety. Could be as much as 40 / 41 points?

I still think 38/39 will keep you up. Can't see Wigan/Stoke getting more than that

Olly wrote:Good point on goal difference West. Could be a big factor, with it being so tight.

I'm not so sure we'll be ok like you say, but I'd like to think we can get 2 wins from our 3 home games, with our home form being good all season

I've been banging the goal difference drum for the past month on here, at work, in Sainsburys, at the dog poo bin, to the lady who sits at the bus stop every morning waiting for the 6:53 into town and to the psychotic 58 year old paper boy who hears voices in his head and argues with himself before noticing me and telling me to have a wonderful day and look for the filly on page 3 who has blinding bazookas that he'd do anything to squeeze.

I think it'll go down to goal difference.

FreekShow wrote:

Olly wrote:Good point on goal difference West. Could be a big factor, with it being so tight.

I'm not so sure we'll be ok like you say, but I'd like to think we can get 2 wins from our 3 home games, with our home form being good all season

I've been banging the goal difference drum for the past month on here, at work, in Sainsburys, at the dog poo bin, to the lady who sits at the bus stop every morning waiting for the 6:53 into town and to the psychotic 58 year old paper boy who hears voices in his head and argues with himself before noticing me and telling me to have a wonderful day and look for the filly on page 3 who has blinding bazookas that he'd do anything to squeeze.

I think it'll go down to goal difference.

Gonna put some money where your mouth is Freekmeister? Sure a bookies must be offering decent odds on that

Stoke's run in is interesting

qpr a
norwich h
sunderland a (big game all round).
spurs h
saints a.

I'll have a butchers around at the weekend Olly. Last time it happened was 07 I believe when - ironically - Wigan relegated Sheff Utd in that winner takes all last match.

GD could be the saving of Stoke. Nodge's GD isn't looking too healthy Olly but I'm still backing you to prevail.

FreekShow wrote:I'll have a butchers around at the weekend Olly. Last time it happened was 07 I believe when - ironically - Wigan relegated Sheff Utd in that winner takes all last match.

GD could be the saving of Stoke. Nodge's GD isn't looking too healthy Olly but I'm still backing you to prevail.

Yeah we got your bloody lot to thank for that

I'm sure Suarez wouldn't have to put his hand in his pocket should he ever go clubbing in Ipswich?!

FreekShow wrote:I'm sure Suarez wouldn't have to put his hand in his pocket should he ever go clubbing in Ipswich?!

You're right. Very cheap round there

Life could be looking even tougher tonight for Wigan. A tricky game away to West Ham this afternoon. Their position could be made worse if Stoke win at QPR.

Olly should be able to breathe more easily after Norwich's home game against Reading. Big trouble if the Canaries muck that up.

Meanwhile, Sunderland's home game to Everton won't be easy whilst Newcastle would certainly settle for a point at West Brom to edge them closer to safety.

Villa play away to Man Utd on Monday.

Who needs the Champions League when you have this much excitement at the basement?

Wigan in deep trouble after dominating play but losing against the Hammers

Much relief for Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich.

Well, that's Reading and QPR gone. Good weekend for Stoke, Sunderland and Nowrich in pushing clear - they might need to pick up another point or two to be absolutely safe, but the pressure is easing. Less good for Newcastle, but they still have QPR to play so should pick up 3 points there (tough otherwise - Liverpool and Arsenal at home and an in form West Ham away)

Looking increasingly likely that it will be one of Wigan or Villa for the last spot - could very well come down to the last day when they meet at Wigan. Looking at their respsective fixtures, I expect Villa to still have a lead of a point going in to the game, so Wigan will need to win.

If Suarez is banned by club or F.A by next Saturday then I think Newcastle can get a result at home to Liverpool. We've still got to go to West Ham & QPR where we should be able to pick up at least a win or a couple of points. Arsenal at home last day is a flip of a coin but that day Villa play Wigan so we might not even need a result. We're crawling over the line.

If we take a beating tonight, our goal difference will be fair bit worse than Wigan's.

They have a knack of escaping, can they do it again?
Hoping for Norwich, Spurs, Liverpool wins this weekend, and of course us to beat Sunderland next monday, although Di Canio has them winning games now.

I don't know I think Wigan's time is up, there's only so many seasons you can avoid relegation before the inevitbale happens....... Coventry, Wolves etc

Shame really I'd much rather Villa went down to be honest.

Nah Wigan can f off.

After watching that performance I think Villas are down.


17 Wigan 39pts
18 Villa 38pts
19 Reading 28pts
20 QPR 26pts

I still can't see Wigan getting anymore than 35/36 points.

Villa will get enough points to stay up