Injury streak about to come to an end?

While putting together the Points Spy for Indian Wells, I noticed something quite interesting. (At least... I think it's interesting! )

The top 32 seeds for Indian Wells are the top 32 players in the rankings! It struck me that, with Nadal being injured since Wimbledon, it must be quite a while since the seeds all lined up perfectly. So I thought I'd take a look back through the archives and see how far back it actually goes.

Here's what I found. (There may have been other injured seeds too, but these are the ones I was already aware of, or who jumped out at me):

2013 Australian Open
Nadal [4] (knee)

2012 Paris
Nadal [4] (knee)

2012 Shanghai
Nadal [4] (knee)

2012 US Open
Nadal [3] (knee)

2012 Cincinnati
Nadal [3] (knee)

2012 Toronto
Nadal [3] (knee)

2012 Wimbledon
Monfils [15] (knee)

2012 French Open
Fish [10] (cardiac arrhythmia)
Monfils [13] (knee)

2012 Rome
Fish [9] (cardiac arrhythmia)

2012 Madrid
Murray [4] (back)
Fish [9] (cardiac arrhythmia)

2012 Miami
Soderling [30] (mono)

2012 Indian Wells
Monfils [14] (back)
Soderling [29] (mono)

2012 Australian Open
Soderling [13] (mono)

2011 Paris
Nadal [2] (rest?)
Soderling [6] (mono)

2011 Shanghai
Djokovic [1] (back)
Federer [3] (rest)
Soderling [6] (mono)

2011 US Open
Soderling [6] (mono)

2011 Cincinnati
Soderling [6] (wrist)

2011 Montreal
Soderling [5] (wrist)
Ferrer [6] (wrist)

...

It appears this is where the list ends. In the previous tournament, Wimbledon 2011, I think everyone who was seeded was meant to be seeded, but it is difficult to tell. The highest ranked player who didn't take part was Fognini, at no.32, but I don't think he would have been seeded because of the way Wimbledon calculates it's seeds. e.g. Llodra was ranked below him at no.35, but seeded all the way up at no.19 because of his grass court results.

...

So anyway, that's a run of over 20 months! 18 successive mandatory tournaments... and it looks like the streak is finally about to be broken as long as everyone at least makes it on court for their opening round clash!

Fingers crossed for Fish, who hasn't played a match this year.

That is a great analysis Cogen, wow what a great event it is shaping up to be at Indian wells. It is early in the year so most guys are fit and have had enough match play were they should be primed. I bet it is very rare indeed that all 32 seeds would show up for any mandatory event. You are the only one who noticed said fact that is wonderful analysis.

The analysis on Wim 2011 isnt correct as the top 32 players are seeded and then re-ordered based on grass court performance (ie. in order to take advantage of his grass court pedigree to get bumped to 19 Llodra must have been in the top 32 players entering). It may therefore be a longer streak if Fognini should have been seeded.

Cogen. Very nice.

As an aside I don't think Fognini ended up playing in that 2011 Championship anyway. He was a withdrawal at the last possible moment.

It sticks in my mind because he was drawn to play Raonic in the first round.

quietplease wrote:As an aside I don't think Fognini ended up playing in that 2011 Championship anyway. He was a withdrawal at the last possible moment.

It sticks in my mind because he was drawn to play Raonic in the first round.

It sticks in my mind as well.

Ok, that pretty much confirms it then!

Raonic was seeded 31st, and he played Lucky Loser, Marc Gicquel. Obviously Gicquel was Fogger's replacement, and two seeds would never face each other before R3, so Foggy cannot have been seeded!

No, wait...!

Born Slippy wrote:The analysis on Wim 2011 isnt correct as the top 32 players are seeded and then re-ordered based on grass court performance (ie. in order to take advantage of his grass court pedigree to get bumped to 19 Llodra must have been in the top 32 players entering). It may therefore be a longer streak if Fognini should have been seeded.

You are correct. I was looking at rankings for Wimbledon one week too far in the future. When the draw was made, Llodra was ranked 25th.

I'll just check the other players in the lower part of the correct top 32 and make sure all of them took part... Gimme a minute.

Yup, everybody in the top 32 took part. Fognini was ranked 34th when the draw was made.

Streak began in Canada 2011.

No, that means we don't yet know when the streak began...

I had been thinking about this earlier. It could have been very different.

But one note of caution...as you look back at past tournaments you will likely look at matches that were actually played. So to really compare I think we should wait until after the second round at Indian Wells is completed to see if all 32 line up at the start. And then maybe check back for the last time this happened.