ATP PointsThingy - Madrid Masters

Apologies for the late post, I wrote everything out before, only for it to be deleted because I apparently hadn't logged in. I had.

Oh dear, it seems I've been caught off-guard.

Because Madrid and Rome have been switched around this year, the Rome points dropped today, so everyone now has an extra ATP500 or ATP 250 to make up for the missing Masters, meaning the above table and analysis are in fact completely and utterly wrong. I'll make corrections when I've had some sleep.

EDIT: We appear to also have a very strange situation regarding Mikhail Youzhny and anyone else whose got Munich points. Youzhny still seems to have his points from last year because they drop next week, so he's still got 250 points from last year win despite losing in the second round this year! As a result, since Madrid points also drop a week after the tournament ends, we'll have a similar situation here.... I think the ATP have made a pigs ear of this one to be honest, i'll sort through it later....

Stealth, you are the points expert if Novak wins in Madrid, (a very tough ask). Then it may make it real hard on Nadal to defend the #1 ranking with all the points he has to defend. But basically whatever happens even if Nadal wins and Djokovic goes out early he narrows the gap a bit. Another good analysis, thanks for the effort, you must have a degree physics for working all these variables out especially with the change in schedules.

socal1976 wrote:Stealth, you are the points expert if Novak wins in Madrid, (a very tough ask). Then it may make it real hard on Nadal to defend the #1 ranking with all the points he has to defend. But basically whatever happens even if Nadal wins and Djokovic goes out early he narrows the gap a bit. Another good analysis, thanks for the effort, you must have a degree physics for working all these variables out especially with the change in schedules.

Thanks.

I've sorted the tables out now. Regarding the fight for number 1, Djokovic will basically guarantee World number one status for at least some of this season if he wins here. If Nadal wins here, then he'll keep number 1 untill Roland Garros, where it's basically in Djokovics hands; he makes the semis or the final there, then combined with reasonable Rome and Madrid results there is very little Nadal can do to stop him from overtaking him.

To be honest, there's little Nadal can do to stop Djokovic nicking his place this year anyways. Nadal has a flawless slam record to defend, Djokovic has about half of what Nadal has to defend for the rest of the year. I know who my moneys on for year end champ.

Stealth Maestro Agro Love wrote:
Thanks.

I've sorted the tables out now. Regarding the fight for number 1, Djokovic will basically guarantee World number one status for at least some of this season if he wins here. If Nadal wins here, then he'll keep number 1 untill Roland Garros, where it's basically in Djokovics hands; he makes the semis or the final there, then combined with reasonable Rome and Madrid results there is very little Nadal can do to stop him from overtaking him.

To be honest, there's little Nadal can do to stop Djokovic nicking his place this year anyways. Nadal has a flawless slam record to defend, Djokovic has about half of what Nadal has to defend for the rest of the year. I know who my moneys on for year end champ.

It's gonna be close in regards to Djokovic and Nadal. Nadal has tons of grand slam points to defend, but after the clay court season he hasn't got many points to defend in terms of masters. I think if he wins most of those masters he might, just might be able to hold the number 1 ranking, that's if he defends those Grand Slam points which I don't think he will. He's looked a bit suspect on clay so far this season but I'm pretty sure he'll come through and win RG, the big test I think will be at Wimbledon, if he can defends his points there then I'd put my money on Nadal. However that's not to say that Djokovic hasn't got big GS points to defend either; he reached the semis of Wimbledon last year and the final of US so it might not be so easy for him either. There's also the possibility of the surge of from from Del Potro, Murray, Federer.

I think the things that really makes it tough for Nadal is that he will be hard pressed to repeat his feat at the US Open. Del Potro is healthy, Novak looks to be dominant form on the hardcourt and Murray looks to be rounding into shape. And fed will still be dangerous. And with the amount of points that Novak has accumulated at the start of the season Nadal will find it difficult to be year end #1 if he doesn't defend the US open, and lets remember Nadal usually doesn't play too well in the indoors after the USO. That being said if he repeats at RG and wimby he could still finish year end #1.

socal1976 wrote:I think the things that really makes it tough for Nadal is that he will be hard pressed to repeat his feat at the US Open. Del Potro is healthy, Novak looks to be dominant form on the hardcourt and Murray looks to be rounding into shape. And fed will still be dangerous. And with the amount of points that Novak has accumulated at the start of the season Nadal will find it difficult to be year end #1 if he doesn't defend the US open, and lets remember Nadal usually doesn't play too well in the indoors after the USO. That being said if he repeats at RG and wimby he could still finish year end #1.

Hmmmm true. I think Roger will be winning Wimbledon this year, I think he's still good for a slam and two and he will win Wimbledon. French Open I can see no one upsetting Nadal there, possibly Djokovic being the only contender but even he will have to be 100% at everything to take Nadal to 5 sets, if Nadal finds the form he did last year because as I said this year Nadal looks a bit suspect to me on clay. I do think though that if Nadal dethroned at RG then he won't win at Wimbledon. Also this years US might even be the most exciting Grand Slam in a while so yeah this year looks pretty Awesome in terms of tennis.

Anyway I think by the years end the top 5 is gonna be:

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray
5. Del Potro

Further edits made. I forgot to give anyone other than the Top 8 their 10 points. Winners also updated.

I don't think the Masters gap really makes a lot of difference to be honest; Nadal has after Rome 630 Masters points to defend, but Djokovic only has 990 as well. It's not much of a difference, and the rest of the Masters are hardcourt, so we'd expect Djokovic to do well on them.

Like I said, it's very tricky to see past Djokovic this year. His streak is one of those great one-offs, but at the end of the day, a slam final, 2 Masters, Davis Cup champ and an ATP500 and ATP250 win under his belt without half the year gone yet; that is quite simply the form of a world number 1.

STealth, I did my own laymen's calculation. It will take 11000 to 12500 points this year to be world #1. From a little more than a quarter of a season Djokovic has accumulated 4750 points from 5 of 19 qualifying tournaments. Nadal needs another one of those grandslam tears (which he is capable of) to take the year end #1. With a little more than a quarter of the season over djokovic is nearly 45% there.

I am awesome, I also think Fed's best chance is at wimby and that he is still the most natural grass court player on tour. But I don't think I would make him the favorite at the tournament. He needs the draw to open up a bit and to really play well. Quite frankly, I think he has another grandslam in him, but I don't think he has anymore than that.

we mustn't forget that Novak also have to defend a lot of points moving forward. It is not like he missed any grandslam events last year.

Superochog he really doesn't have more than a final at the USO and a semi at wimby to defend. He didn't do really well in the late season indoor events a semi at the WT finals at the end of the year. By the end of the season to see who is year end #1 its is like a points race, similar to formula 1. Novak has a comfortable lead in the points race right now with the best part of his season (US hardcourts and year end indoors) coming up. While nadal needs to stockpile points between now and wimby.

One thing Nole hasn't ever been before is the hunted. Equally, he has never gone deep time after time after time. So whilst it seems a given with the latter part of the season favouring Nole on hardcourts, who knows what mileage his legs will have undertaken, the possible mental stress and people like Murray, possibly JMDP and Feds even may be the ones taking the pickings in the final stages of the tour. So adding that to the mix might make it very interesting indeed.

Rafa was spent after his USO exertions last year, and whilst I don't think he'll repeat it, he'll be there or there abouts. So although he'll possibly lose points in New York, he's dropping Bangkok and therefore might make more of a fist of the Asian swing as there are points for him to pick up there. As with Paris.

socal1976 wrote:STealth, I did my own laymen's calculation. It will take 11000 to 12500 points this year to be world #1. From a little more than a quarter of a season Djokovic has accumulated 4750 points from 5 of 19 qualifying tournaments. Nadal needs another one of those grandslam tears (which he is capable of) to take the year end #1. With a little more than a quarter of the season over djokovic is nearly 45% there.

I am awesome, I also think Fed's best chance is at wimby and that he is still the most natural grass court player on tour. But I don't think I would make him the favorite at the tournament. He needs the draw to open up a bit and to really play well. Quite frankly, I think he has another grandslam in him, but I don't think he has anymore than that.

He has about anothe 2-3 slams in him IMO. I really think that apart from Nadal and Djokovic he tear anyone up and this shows in his results this season so far only losing to Nadal and Djokovic and Melzer. If someone knocks out Nadal or Djokovic for him at the US and Wimbledon I think he can take both.

I am awesome frankly I don't see it because it isn't just Novak and Nadal he has to worry about he has become more susceptible to other players on the tour as well. Guys like Soderling and Berdych have stepped up and knocked Fed out of grandslams as well. And at the USO you have Del Potro coming back into the mix as well. I think his best shot is to get one more wimby, which I think he is capable of, and that I hope he gets. It would be a great moment to see him lift one more wimby. But at the USO there are a handful of guys that have a real chance (murray, del po, Nadal, Djoko, and Fed) not to mention other dangerous floaters that could trouble him that I think it will be very difficult to win at New york.

Phew that table makes for scary reading as a Rafa fan, with all those points to defend still. At least there are 500 in the bank from Barcelona which will add on once his 0-pointer drops off in the summer.

Still...in the end it's all about how many points they have at the end of the year, even though there could be some swapping places in the meantime if Nole keeps up his exceptionally good start to the season.

socal1976 wrote:I am awesome frankly I don't see it because it isn't just Novak and Nadal he has to worry about he has become more susceptible to other players on the tour as well. Guys like Soderling and Berdych have stepped up and knocked Fed out of grandslams as well. And at the USO you have Del Potro coming back into the mix as well. I think his best shot is to get one more wimby, which I think he is capable of, and that I hope he gets. It would be a great moment to see him lift one more wimby. But at the USO there are a handful of guys that have a real chance (murray, del po, Nadal, Djoko, and Fed) not to mention other dangerous floaters that could trouble him that I think it will be very difficult to win at New york.

Difficult, but not impossible. TBH the same what you said about Federer could be said about anyone else in the top 4. It's about how much Fed's form increases by the time of New York. Look at last year, he suffered defeats at the QF in both GS preceding New York, yet still blasted all his opponents off the court to reach the semis, including deafeating Soderling in 3 sets when he was on much better form, where he lost to Djokovic, and tbh that match could have gone either way and was a classic. I expect Federer at the minimum reach the semis. However I can see him going out early on at RG.

I hope Fed can get a slam this year, and continue to play for a couple of more years. He still gives off flashes of that brilliance that only he can produce. A mixture of elegance and shot making that is hard to match. But you know what i don't see it at the USO. Yes last year's match could have gone either way when we are talking about the semis with Nole. But this isn't last year's Nole. And their was no Juan Martin Del Potro in the picture either. Jmdp is lethal on the American hardcourts. If I was Nadal, or anyone for that matter i wouldn't want anything to do with Juan at the US open, his game is just tailor made for that surface.

socal1976 wrote:I hope Fed can get a slam this year, and continue to play for a couple of more years. He still gives off flashes of that brilliance that only he can produce. A mixture of elegance and shot making that is hard to match. But you know what i don't see it at the USO. Yes last year's match could have gone either way when we are talking about the semis with Nole. But this isn't last year's Nole. And their was no Juan Martin Del Potro in the picture either. Jmdp is lethal on the American hardcourts. If I was Nadal, or anyone for that matter i wouldn't want anything to do with Juan at the US open, his game is just tailor made for that surface.

I'm sure Federer can match this years nole, maybe the results haven't gone in Federers way this year so far, but the matches they have played, even the straight set victories to Djokovic, have been tight. And yeah JMDP is lethal on the US courts, him winning it 2 years back was no fluke, some of the forehands he was hitting that day were outrageous.

The Top 10-20 have been rather rubbish this time, haven't they? Makes my calculations a little easier though, I guess...

As a result of pretty much everyone deciding to join the 'upset brigade' it looks like any further changes in the Top 20 are going to be at a minimum, barring a huge performance from Tsonga, Soderling, Ferrer or Berdych. And three of those guys are in the same half I think.

Djokovic now one round away from surpassing the 10,000 mark.

Berdych is fast catching up to Ferrer, so Ferrer's got some work to do if he wants to retain his spot.

You are all going to laugh at me, but I won't mind as i'm SSOOOOOO happy.

I've been on this board for the last month (more or less active) only aware of the 4 "fan" threads at the top of the tennis page . I posted a new topic today and couldn't find it and then scrolled down and saw ALL THIS , YIPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

noleisthebest wrote:You are all going to laugh at me, but I won't mind as i'm SSOOOOOO happy.

I've been on this board for the last month (more or less active) only aware of the 4 "fan" threads at the top of the tennis page . I posted a new topic today and couldn't find it and then scrolled down and saw ALL THIS , YIPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Welcome to the main part of the tennis forum nitb

Would you like me to move the thread you started earlier into your Nole section?

It's fine if you want to leave it here....it's up to you : )

Solerina

If you like.....Solerina....I still can't believe the ultimate moment....I mean really!!!!!
And I MUST repeat how delighted I am there is THIS , can you imagine how I was feeling thinking there were only those threads...this is brilliant!

I've found my new home now and it's not a studio : it's a mansion

noleisthebest wrote:If you like.....Solerina....I still can't believe the ultimate moment....I mean really!!!!!
And I MUST repeat how delighted I am there is THIS , can you imagine how I was feeling thinking there were only those threads...this is brilliant!

I've found my new home now and it's not a studio : it's a mansion

Thank you, and no problem. I just hope I've got the points right for this week, it's a very confusing one this time around.

noleisthebest wrote:If you like.....Solerina....I still can't believe the ultimate moment....I mean really!!!!!
And I MUST repeat how delighted I am there is THIS , can you imagine how I was feeling thinking there were only those threads...this is brilliant!

I've found my new home now and it's not a studio : it's a mansion

nitb, that is the most lovely thing to say .......I'm really glad you like the forum.

I've moved your thread to Nole's Place : )

You must be absolutely thrilled about the way Nole's playing.......Andy Murray isn't giving me much reason to be thrilled at the moment but I've really been enjoying watching Rafa and Nole playing : )

Solerina

Thanks Solerina!

Yes, funny times if you are a Murray fan....I haven't seen the match but seems that Belucci played well, shame...he really played well in Monte Carlo.
You just don't know, maybe slower clay suits him better, Roland Garros could be his ticket if he manages to find focus.

It's almost as if nobody's expecting him to produce results on clay so he's not too bothered, so pressure can't be such a bad thing after all

"I just hope I've got the points right for this week, it's a very confusing one this time around. "

You are doing a great job, so long as Nole earns more than those 45 points he seems to be stuck with this week

noleisthebest wrote:"I just hope I've got the points right for this week, it's a very confusing one this time around. "

You are doing a great job, so long as Nole earns more than those 45 points he seems to be stuck with this week

I've actually learnt a lot by looking at Nole's points in particular this week. You see, the last time this change of schedule happened was when the points system was completely overhauled at the start of 2009, when our trouble tournament Rome was moved back a week to accomodate a week long gap between itself and Madrid.

Basically players wound up with 9 (or even 10 for those who played in Monte Carlo!) Masters tournaments on their score sheet, and as a result everyone saw their ATP250 allocation reduced by one untill the Rome points dropped a week later after Belgrade. Again, I used Djokovic's points to calculate how the system worked back then. The system hasn't changed since 2009, so hopefully it'll work this time to. Hopefully.

The key will be the Roland Garros one, all teething problems MUST be sorted by then we don't want to see the crowning of new number 1 marred by any minor glitches do we

noleisthebest wrote:The key will be the Roland Garros one, all teething problems MUST be sorted by then we don't want to see the crowning of new number 1 marred by any minor glitches do we

Everything's fine after Madrid, as we'll know for certain what's dropped and what hasn't, so it's easy to see what'll happen in Rome then, and i'm pretty sure the tables right, but it would be nice to be absolutely 100% certain in advance.

Like I said before, this happened before in Rome 2009, and the tables reflect the exact same basis they used last time around.

Remember Hamburg ...

NITB, is besides herself lately. I love the passion. She is in a frenzy of all things Novak. NITB, be careful of the rafateers they protect Rafa like mama bear protects her cub. Really and truely this is an exciting time on the men's tour.

Updated once more. I've added a tracker on surpise package Bellucci, and also on Sam Querrey's unfortunate but expected slide out of the Top 20. If Ferrer can stop Djokovic he will now have at least some chance of not falling below Berdych after Rome.

so if you have any questions, or spot any errors, shout up.

I read that as ... "If you have any questions or errors, shut up".

... which I thought was quite pertinent seeing as this is such a complicated subject.

Wooffie wrote:

so if you have any questions, or spot any errors, shout up.

I read that as ... "If you have any questions or errors, shut up".

... which I thought was quite pertinent seeing as this is such a complicated subject.

I need all the help I can get with these things, so see it more as a plea for help.

Updated again, I've now added Michael Llodra, who I didn't realise had hit a new career high in 21st.

Maestro,

I do feel thick as a whale sandwich now and then, so be gentle, please: if Madrid has not been taken off yet, and is being taken off when Rome ends, when is Rome being taken off if 250 ones are going next week?

Also, why on Earth did they have to change all this points circus, basically they have just doubled the points per tournament, and make a whole lot of chaos so that even they can't work points out any more.....
someone should be sacked!

noleisthebest wrote:Maestro,

I do feel thick as a whale sandwich now and then, so be gentle, please: if Madrid has not been taken off yet, and is being taken off when Rome ends, when is Rome being taken off if 250 ones are going next week?

Also, why on Earth did they have to change all this points circus, basically they have just doubled the points per tournament, and make a whole lot of chaos so that even they can't work points out any more..... someone should be sacked!

OK, i'll start from the beginning.

Last year, we had the following tournaments in order: Rome, the ATP250's (Belgrade, Estoril and Munich) and then Madrid.

This year the order has changed. The ATP's are a week earlier than last year, Madrid is a week earlier than last year, and Rome is two weeks later. The rules specifically state that all points for a tournament (World Tour Finals and Futures excepted) count for one calendar year only.

Therefore, since Romes points for last year were added on the 2nd May 2010, on the 2nd May 2011, in effect last Monday, they dropped. Look at any players points tally; Rome is not there.

Last year, the ATP250 points were added on the 9th May 2010. So on the 9th May 2011, this Monday, they will drop. I believe they will add the Madrid 2011 points then as replacement. (Some players do not quite follow this pattern as they may not have played in Belgrade, Estoril or Munich last year)

Finally, Madrid's 2010 points were added on the 16th May 2010. Therefore, they will drop on the 16th May 2011, the Monday that the Rome 2011 points will be counted.

As for the new rankings sytem as opposed to the old one, the idea was that the new system rewards the players who consistently perform and go far in tournaments. Previously, the points gap between a player who won a Masters and a player who lost in the final was 150 points (winner gained 500, runner up gained 350), now it's 400 (Winner gains 1000, runner up gains 600). This is not a relative increase; the runner up previously gained 70% of what he could have earned by winning, that figure is now 60%.

So basically, it's to reward the winners. I think it's rather good to be honest, the only thing I have issue with is removing the race, that was a useful indicator of form for the first half of the season.

And to be fair, i'm sure the guys doing the points at the ATP know full well what they are doing, it's just me that's the problem!

If I'm not mistaken the ATP schedule will be different again next year...

Nadal 10025 + 2205
Djokovic 10025
Federer 10025-1305
Murray 5905

Well Djokovic has a clear gap from Federer having overtaken him in the rankings in March of this year. He still has some way to go to breach the gap to Nadal but he is a clear World No 2. I can't foresee Murray bridging the gap to Federer although it is possible for Federer to fall back further towards the pack but perhaps not this year.

Again an excellent article from the Maestro.

Maestro (now why do I always think of Federer when I write maestro- )

a BIG thanks !

Updated for the 40th and hopefully final time. It's getting close at the top....

It is ...

Stealth Maestro Agro Love wrote:Updated for the 40th and hopefully final time. It's getting close at the top....

And where's the Rome Thingy?

Very difficult for you to keep up with this new ATP schedule...

YYYYYYEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!