Madrid Draw

Projected quarters:

Djoko - Tsonga
Murray - Berdych
Nadal - Ferrer
Federer - Gasquet

Djoko may be playing his opener against Dimitrov, which could be interesting. Wawrinka and Raonic are also in his quarter.

Andy's quarter has Simon, Tipsy, Monaco.

Nadal has Almagro, Haas, Seppi, among others.

Federer may be playing his opener against the new king of clay - Tomic (if Tomic makes it there, of course), and also has Isner, Cilic and Nishikori in his quarter.

All in all, a fairly balanced draw. If I had to pick, I would say Andy's is probably the most favorable, followed perhaps by Roger's.

Here we are, starting a nine week stretch including Madrid, Rome, RG and Wimbledon. I wonder what kind of Roger will turn up here. He has not played all that much really since November; so will be interesting to see how he handles this hectic stretch. I am inclined to think that he will do quite well (given his age) this spring, but maybe that is just my wishful thinking.

SJ, pls make sure to remember the 606v2 tour.

In other news, I believe a win over Dodig on Saturday would move Haas to #13, ahead of Raonic.

Djokovic's draw is particularly tough if he gets stan the man, I have always felt that Wawrinka's best surface is clay he hits the ball so heavy off of both wings and the service line and his relative weakness of returning is helped by the slower conditions. Can't wait for this tournament as finally we have all the top players assembled again after IW, great post Summerblues.

Wow, that's a tricky draw for Novak. Probable route of Dimitrov / Wawrinka / Tsonga / Murray or Monaco / Nadal.

Strangely, the opening rounds strike me as more dangerous than the QF and SF! Novak can't afford to start slowly against Dimitrov and Wawrinka on clay is a serious threat.

And looks like we may be in for a Fedal SF! I hope Fed is healthy for this one.

Murdoch what are you doing awake at this ungodly hour on a Saturday morning no less. As a member of the Macallan's club you should be sleeping off a strong hangover at this time of day.

socal1976 wrote:Murdoch what are you doing awake at this ungodly hour on a Saturday morning no less. As a member of the Macallan's club you should be sleeping off a strong hangover at this time of day.

Ha! Sadly having an 18 month old child means sleeping in is an increasingly distant memory.

Fortunately, partaking in Macallan often causes me to nod off earlier, so the total amount of sleep remains the same!

Murray has a relatively kind draw, although Bellucci wouldn't be an easy opener. Nadal's draw would be tough for most (Almagro in R16!) but he is so dominant against his fellow spaniards. Novak has a real toughie - Stan could ake him out early.

I will sb

Murray could be upset again by bellucci as he was 2 years ago in the same tournament.
When the brazilian is on it hes for me a top 10 clay courter no doubt.
IS TSJ doing the v2 game?

Interesting draw and agree that Novak doesn't have a cakewalk. Tough draw for Dimitrov getting Novak 2nd round though.
Nadal's draw is fair enough for him but then he's unlikely to fear anyone until Djokovic. I doubt he'll let Almagro get a 3-0 lead again.
Federer's draw looks good, no real banana skins until SF surely?
Similarly Murray...can't see anything but the usual top 4 (not Ferrer) in the semis.

Haas vs Seppi and Goffin vs Verdasco look the pick of the R1 matches.

Confident murray can beat bellucci lydian if the brazilian beats mayer?

When did Stan become a worry for the top guys?

bogbrush wrote:When did Stan become a worry for the top guys?

When he took Novak to 12-10 in the 5th on Novak's favourite court! And then spanked Andy 6-1 6-2 at MC.

He lacks match-to-match consistency but when he's on, he's very dangerous, especially in BO3.

And especially on clay.

Stan is one win away from a breakthrough, I can feel it!! This is the year Wawrinka becomes the Suisse number 2 (in that Ferrer 'top ten' way!!l)

Quite happy that Nadal drew Ferrer, really, it gives him a better chance to take the four seed at RG

Tsonga was one point away from victory (like five times) against Djoko in RG12, and the crowd should lift him, as should the fact he took a set off Nadal in MC, so that might be a tough one for Djoko as well.

HM Murdoch wrote:

bogbrush wrote:When did Stan become a worry for the top guys?

When he took Novak to 12-10 in the 5th on Novak's favourite court! And then spanked Andy 6-1 6-2 at MC.

He lacks match-to-match consistency but when he's on, he's very dangerous, especially in BO3.

I don't count Murray, he's a readily available scalp for my decent player on clay.

kingraf wrote:Tsonga...took a set off Nadal in MC

Did he? Good for him, then.

he didnt did he? I remembered Grigor doing that and I wrote Tsongas name

Tsonga made that second set much closer than it should have been, almost to the point one is willing to give it to him; but it was straight sets. I wonder how Dimi will do against Nole (I hope Dimi does not lose in the first round). One of these days, Dimi will win a match against someone from top 4.

This is not Madrid, but Haas has just beaten Dodig, so he will move up to #13 in the rankings. He has little to defend this clay court season (did not play Madrid/Rome last year and made 3rd round at RG) so has room to potentially move up some more. #11 looks within reach (Tommy is less than 400 points from #11 after today).

It wouldn't surprise me if Ferrer lost early in Madrid to Haas or someone like Robredo.

Stan was not doing too well in the second set against ATP #228, Carreno-Busta, he was down 4-1 and possibly staring down at a breadstick. If he was consistent, he would be a much bigger threat to the Top 10.

HM Murdoch wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Murdoch what are you doing awake at this ungodly hour on a Saturday morning no less. As a member of the Macallan's club you should be sleeping off a strong hangover at this time of day.

Ha! Sadly having an 18 month old child means sleeping in is an increasingly distant memory.

Fortunately, partaking in Macallan often causes me to nod off earlier, so the total amount of sleep remains the same!

Well only thing better than drink is early drinking. Cheers and not only are you a crack investigator but a model parent good man.

kingraf wrote:Tsonga was one point away from victory (like five times) against Djoko in RG12, and the crowd should lift him, as should the fact he took a set off Nadal in MC, so that might be a tough one for Djoko as well.

I don't see it that way, Djoko was not playing this well in the clay court season last year. I am more worried about the early rounds as they look very tough.

Well balanced draw - top 4 in separate quarters of the draw - hope it's the same for RG!

yloponom68 wrote:Well balanced draw - top 4 in separate quarters of the draw - hope it's the same for RG!

Oh? Are not top four always in separate quarters of the draw?

Lol...indeed.

laverfan wrote:Stan was not doing too well in the second set against ATP #228, Carreno-Busta, he was down 4-1 and possibly staring down at a breadstick. If he was consistent, he would be a much bigger threat to the Top 10.

As I was saying in another thread, PCB may be ranked there, but his true ranking appears to be higher as he spent most of 2012 off with a back surgery. Granted that level is probably about #50-80 at the moment. He's one of my favourites as he's been quite profitable this season.

Bit off topic but interesting stats on top 4. Interesting to read their record against each other since 2008 compared to overall.

http://m.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/04/18/Shark-Bites-Madrid-Big-4-Djokovic-Federer-Murray-Nadal.aspx

slashermcguirk wrote:Bit off topic but interesting stats on top 4. Interesting to read their record against each other since 2008 compared to overall.

http://m.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/04/18/Shark-Bites-Madrid-Big-4-Djokovic-Federer-Murray-Nadal.aspx

Really a good link and very interesting, Nadal dominates the H2H against the big 4 and of all the players Fed has the lowest win percentage against big 4 opposition since 2008. I'd like to see those numbers since 2011 I am sure that djoko would finish at the top in win percentage against big 4 opposition and by a wide margin.

"Oh? Are not top four always in separate quarters of the draw?..."

No, sometimes a player might not be able to play due to injury for an extended time, and then drop to No 5 in the ranking - but he's still Top 4 in the world, but due to his seed, gets drawn against No 1, 2 or 3 - hence.....not all Top 4 in the world are in separate quarters. As is the case here - Ferrer is ranked No 4, and has earned it - but in no way does anyone consider the "Top 4" to be Djokovic, Federer, Murray and.....Ferrer....hence the "tongue in cheek" approach to my comment. Ferrer IS the No 4 ranked player at the moment but NOT in the Top 4 of current players, as to the "real picture" of things....not by a long shot - Vamos King Rafa VII...hopefully soon to be Raf VIII. Shame that it might be with vanquishing Djokovic or Federer in the quarters though. (Please read MIGHT where might is written and not WILL!).

Either Djokovic or Federer COULD win in 1/4 v Rafa - but no way Murray or Ferrer.....