Hamburg Quarterfinals OoP and match thread

[laverfan]

Monaco took out Monfils and Paire (a double French) and has played well so far, without being outstanding. Despite his hiccup second set against Paire. He is also the defending champion. Almagro has had an easier straight-sets outing and looks confident. His loss at Bastad to Verdasco may be quickly forgotten, if he does well here.

Prediction: Almagro in 3.

Verdasco played the finals at Bastad and had a good outing at W. Berlocq just outplayed Verdasco and is susceptible to a wobble in later stages. Delbonis has a harder but convincing run so far and has the ability to take Nando out, just watch the Nando FH ( KR).

Prediction: Delbonis in 3. (I must be hallucinating).

Fognini just won Stuttgart on Clay so a danger man for Haas. Haas did play well to take out Berlocq, the Bastad champion.

Prediction: Fognini in 3.

Federer, with a new toy, playing Mayer who looks very good taking Davydenko, Dolgopolov and Lopez out. Used drop shots very effectively against Lopez today.

Prediction: Federer in 3.

OoP - http://bet-at-home-open.com/en/tournament-players/order-of-play/

Center Court

[5] Juan Monaco (ARG) v [3] Nicolas Almagro (ESP)

[14] Fernando Verdasco (ESP) v [Q] Federico Delbonis (ARG)

[12] Fabio Fognini (ITA) v [2] Tommy Haas (GER)

Not Before 5:20 PM

[WC/1] Roger Federer (SUI) v Florian Mayer (GER)

[CaledonianCraig]

Damn there is that 'journeyman' Verdasco through to another quarter-final again.  

Would fancy wins for Juan Monaco, Fernando Verdasco, Tommy Haas and Roger Federer. How's Fed doing with his new racquet?

[kingraf]

Fancying an Monaco victory.
Verdasco victory (quite obviously).
A Haas win
And maybe a tight Federer win

Ps: LF, it is alright, you are quite obviously having delusions of grandeur for poor Delbonis. My advice: lie down until the feeling subsides!

[bogbrush]

Well losing to Berlocq and forecast here to lose to Delbonis isn't exactly World Class, Craig.

[kingraf]

We need to all calm down... Far too early for Verdasco to get glory gitters. Yes, he will probably lose with the amount of fight reserved for Meek lambs... But thats only later in the play, far too early for young Delbonis to even hope for a result...

[laverfan]

How's Fed doing with his new racquet?

"I’m just still looking for the timing and the rhythm here, but the longer I stay in the tournament, the more confident I am that I’m going to play better and better as the tournament goes on," he said.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/07/29/Hamburg-Thursday-Federer-Haas-Monaco-Almagro.aspx

(Posted on the racquet thread as well).

[CaledonianCraig]

Well losing to Berlocq and forecast here to lose to Delbonis isn't exactly World Class, Craig.

Hmmm so at the last three tournies (one of them a slam) he has reached the quarters or better. Pretty decent if you ask me.

[kingraf]

Verdasco has gone 0/10 on break point opportunities second set, just fluffed a match point 8-8 second set TB

[kingraf]

Delbonis takes the second set 7-6.

[kingraf]

Having taken a MTO smashing his hand against a foreign object, following the choke-athon second set. Verdasco is sitting comfortably a break up in the third

[kingraf]

The choke-athon continues... Verdasco broken.. Delbonis leads 4-3

[laverfan]

I cannot see the match, but the score-line is very interesting. Did Nando miss MPs in the second set?

[laverfan]

3 BPs from Live Scores. Come on DelBo!

[The Special Juan]

3 BPs from Live Scores. Come on DelBo!

You should have put some money on from the way these results are going today

[laverfan]

@KR... I was hoping to help you make some money, so you could go see your lady.

[laverfan]

Argh, DelBo!

[kingraf]

Broken again, and Delbonis is serving for the match.

Might be Verdasco's magnum opus of break downs

[laverfan]

Nando comes back. It may end up in a TB.

[kingraf]

haha LF - She wouldnt be pleased if I had put money on FerVer today... Just as well I didnt...

[laverfan]

2 MPs for DelBo!. Take it man.

[kingraf]

Oh Nando, he almost always goes down, but boy is it ever in a blaze of glory!!

[laverfan]

Wasted MPs. What a point for 30-40.

[kingraf]

Deuce!!!

[laverfan]

DF on MP. Absolutely DelBo wins in three.

[kingraf]

And thats Verdasco gone... Quite a few times now that he has saved match points and the DF on match point!

[laverfan]

KR for your man.

[kingraf]

It happens LF... thats part of the FerVer attraction

[laverfan]

Fognini is playing well despite being BPs down.

[kingraf]

Siddle bowling like a superstar!

[kingraf]

Oops, Wrong thread

[laverfan]

Federer broken twice to lose the second set. One-set shoot out. See how he holds up. Mayer is playing well and may sneak this one.

[Jahu]

Fed all over the place. Breake up in third and shanks it back, then break again, some usual great points and then a total meltdown. Just might make this match.

No racket will bring him back this year or ever.

[Jahu]

Fed takes the match, third set 7:5, 59% first serve, bp 4/10. Last 2 games were superb from him, but service was poor.

Tomorrow Delbonis, should be easier maybe.

[laverfan]

Jahu... . Thanks for keeping company.

The racquet may give him some years of satisfaction, though, of having competed with many younger players. Father Time waits for no one, not even TMF.

Glad to see his desire and hunger though.

[kingraf]

The racquets are like the paper covering the cracks. Federer is raging into the night. I think Haas can actually take him here. Home crowd. The seasonal momentum. A better clay season (Madrid notwithstanding), And maybe a liltle more tournament-related hunger

[laverfan]

@KR.. Fognini beat Haas earlier.

[kingraf]

Oh must have somehow missed that 1/4 for me today... Pretty poor prediction day then!

[kingraf]

In that case its Roger's to lose! Title #78 coming up

[laverfan]

In that case its Roger's to lose! Title #78 coming up

I am not so sure, given the way he played against Mayer. My winners predictions were 4/4 but the number of sets for Fognini was incorrect.

[kingraf]

I understand the apprehension, but DelBo is only there because Verdasco had quite possible the most spectacular meltdown in a career filled with some real doozies. I cant see why Federer would lose to him. In fact if he did, I would probably join the "Maybe his time has come*" camp... The adjustment period for the new racquet of course adding the asterisk.

As for Foggo and Almagro, the one would have to display mental fortitude NEVER before seen in him, while the other, while riding a bit of a wave, doesnt have the attributes required to push Fed, even at 31ish

[laverfan]

Fognini is coming of a Clay title win, and Almagro is no slouch despite his mental demons. I expect a good three setter, unlike the bagel handed to Monaco.

Assuming Federer gets past DelBo, Almagro in the final would be a battle of two SHBHs, which I look forward to. Past H2H (2005-07) on Clay is 3-0 Federer, with Almagro taking one TB set at Rome 2006. It may not matter what the H2H is. The mental demons may come into play if this match does occur.

[Silver]

Almagro frustrates me more than any player on tour - should be a nailed-on top 10 man. Wonderful game, but the perfect example of how crucial mental fortitude is at the highest level.

Thanks for the updates LF, and nice predictions today!

[banbrotam]

I'm getting a bit worried about Roger. You see contrary to the views of some of those who I've known for years, I actually like his play and think that his and Murray's matches are the best we have to offer in terms of 'skills'. I watched the Aus SF recently and the subtle skills both bought to the table was a delight - easily the best of their matches, simply because both played well for most of the match

But this is all looking a bit desperate, if the new racquet was the answer, why not prepare with it when he missed Miami and the start of the clay court season

More worryingly he's now seen as fair game. Like a grand killer whale that's past it's best, all the junior sharks are circling with scant regard for past reputations

I hope I'm wrong but the decline could be spectacularly pathetic, i.e. like Ali

However, and back to that Aus SF, I maintain that Andy's most dozy performance of the year, wasn't even against Wawrinka - but it was the 3rd and 4th sets against Roger at Aus

One good think with Roger and a bit like Casius, we'll always have our memories of 2004/5

[summerblues]

Some pretty good predictions there, LF.

[laverfan]

But this is all looking a bit desperate, if the new racquet was the answer, why not prepare with it when he missed Miami and the start of the clay court season.

A Tiger, albeit old, very rarely forgets the taste of blood. Federer's racquet has been a steady, if sometimes an unforgiving, companion. He was probably looking at W and not wanting to change it, IMHO. He still shows missing FHs and BHs. so the new racquet, while not a panacea, may prolong his career a bit, and may open an opportunity. Sampras's lack of desire to relinquish his trusty baton comes to mind, and has been mentioned quite a few times in this context. Perhaps USO is where he wants to be with this racquet, and this is just building a 'trust'.

Some pretty good predictions there, LF.

SB. Thanks.

[TRuffin]

Reports from fans at Hamburg is Federer tweaked his back again! Was getting treatment afterwords...

Match reports saying he stood and didn't sit at all during changeovers twice in 3rd set and serve velocity dropped drastically.   Hope it's just a pull, but I think this is just a continuation of what is really going to cause the slide....

[laverfan]

@silver Thanks. (Missed your comment) on the phone.

@TRuffin... That is not good. Thanks for the news bit.

[ryan86]

Over in Bogota, I'm urging serial retiree Tipsarevic to retire against Falla. In a slightly less successful level of foresight than LF, I put money on him to win 2-0. Whilst I managed to cover the stake by putting money on Falla to win the 2nd set, Tipsarevic has taken an injury time out and lost 10 of the last 12 games.

[lydian]

Fed will prob pull out of Gstaad if that's the case given it follows on next week. The new racquet won't be set up perfectly yet and he may be having to swing harder on serve to get the same pop as the heavier old PS90, hence the back strain.

I don't think anyone would claim this peak Fed or he can get near that again consistently. However, he may have sublime patches like Sampras did at USO2002. The new racquet will take time to bed in though as they tinker with lead weight balance and string tensions for some time.

@ LF, the weight of the racquet vs injury per se isn't the main issue, although lighter racquets tend to cause more issues, its actually the HH vs HL balance that's key. As long as Fed can still achieve the right balance he's been used to he can add lead to the handle and head to get the right swingweight. I have 5 diff racquets, all similar weight (around 325g) but some give me arm issues after 2 sets and others I can play with all day due to balance point and swingweight differences. It can be as finely balanced as that between getting injury or not. String set ups for Fed's new racquet are important too. In general, a lighter head heavy (or head heavier) set up will be more injury inducing then a heavier head light racquet.

So any change in overall swingweight will affect the use of and impact on Fed's muscles too...that may be the cause of short term injury as his body adjusts. This also happened with Nadal in 2012 when he added weight and subsequently got a shoulder injury which he never usually suffers. I commented on his racquet change here in Jan 2012:

https://www.606v2.com/t21187-nadal-adds-weight-to-his-racquet#818446
(injury referenced here http://blogs.montrealgazette.com/2012/01/03/rafa-stop-the-insanity/)

This is why it's a brave move by Fed to do this now as its a major risk to change a racquet mid-season vs new injuries. He really should have done this at the end of a year...and a few years back...to allow more experimentation in getting the spec perfect for him. He'll have to do all this on the fly now and hope the injury calms down as the new set up is optimsed and his body adjusts. Better late than never but hope it doesn't continue to literally "backfire" on him...

[JubbaIsle]

I think Feds sight is going, old age you know, changing from a 90 sq" frame to a 98sq". next he'll be using this one, Murray tried it but the new balls were difficult to serve with.

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