Who will get the 7 rabo spots looking at the season so far

PosTeam P WDL F A PD B Pts
1.Munster 6 501 151 103 48 2 22
2.Ospreys 6 411 192 119 73 4 22
3.Glasgow 6 501 94 75 19 1 21
4.Ulster 6 402 127 81 46 4 20
5.Leinster 5 212 126 99 27 4 14
6.Dragons 6 303 107 110 -3 1 13
7.Scarlets 6 213 111 117 -6 2 12
8.Blues 6 204 131 147 -16 2 10
9.Treviso 6 204 107 124 -17 2 10
10.Edinb 6 204 90 155 -65 0 8
11.Zebre 6 114 107 163 -56 1 7
12.Conn 5 104 71 121 -50 0 4

So taking a Leinster win today will see a top five (which i dont think suprises anyone) who will probably be fighting it out for the playoffs. Treviso will most likely win the Italian challange leaving one place left for the remaining one place.

Currently I am disappointed by Connacht as they seemed to be improving last year but i think they will fight it out with Zebre for bottom.

Currently I see it as a big fight between the three welsh teams and ironicly it could come down to who gives up on Europe first.

This post assumes that the RCC will go ahead with the terms agreed at the ERC meeting, which is far from certain. If it does go ahead I think it will be;

Ireland : Ulster, Munster, Leinster

Wales: Ospreys, Blues

Scotland: Glasgow

Italy: Treviso

Blues look like they have reached a turning point with their last 2 performances. But the 2nd Welsh qualifier is easily the hardest to predict as it could be any one of Scarlets, Blues and Dragons.

I actually think Zebre have a chance of finishing above Treviso who have looked pretty poor this season where as Zebre have already secured an away win and a draw.

At the minute it looks like there is a top 5 of Munster, ulster, Leinster, Glasgow and ospreys with the three other welsh regions and Treviso fighting it out for 6 and 7.

That being said there is essentially only one spot there for those 3 welsh if the top 5 pull away

As expected, the big losers from this will be Scotland and Italy.

it looks like wales, Scotland and Italy will all lose one. Its early days though

Can someone explain to me the proposals if we do have the RCC, and if we do have guaranteed 1 from each Rabo nation? If Leinster, Ospreys, Glasgow and Treviso finished 1, 2, 3, 4 then I guess places 5 6 and 7 go to whatever teams finish there? Straightforward. What happens if, for example, Scotland's top team (but still guaranteed a place) finish 9 and Italy's finish 10th? The teams finishing 3rd, 4th and 5th will then get the 5th, 6th and 7th places, so does that mean that the 6th place finisher could potentially miss out?

Does that make sense? Or am I overcompensating matters???

Not a likely scenario given how well Glasgow are doing, but just wondering how things will work with this quasi-meritocracy? Could get messy!

Artful_Dodger wrote:This post assumes that the RCC will go ahead with the terms agreed at the ERC meeting, which is far from certain.  If it does go ahead I think it will be;

Ireland : Ulster, Munster, Leinster

Wales: Ospreys, Blues

Scotland: Glasgow

Italy: Treviso

Blues look like they have reached a turning point with their last 2 performances.  But the 2nd Welsh qualifier is easily the hardest to predict as it could be any one of Scarlets, Blues and Dragons.

I actually think Zebre have a chance of finishing above Treviso who have looked pretty poor this season where as Zebre have already secured an away win and a draw.

The ERC cup only allows 7 places the first year with the year after having teams 8&9 take part in a playoff.

Not sure what is up with Treviso the HC seems to have knocked them for 6.
Not sure which will get through of the welsh but i think Scarlets are likely to pick up more bonus pts as Blues seem to colapse away from home when they start falling behind

Griff wrote:Can someone explain to me the proposals if we do have the RCC, and if we do have guaranteed 1 from each Rabo nation? If Leinster, Ospreys, Glasgow and Treviso finished 1, 2, 3, 4 then I guess places 5 6 and 7 go to whatever teams finish there? Straightforward. What happens if, for example, Scotland's top team (but still guaranteed a place) finish 9 and Italy's finish 10th? The teams finishing 3rd, 4th and 5th will then get the 5th, 6th and 7th places, so does that mean that the 6th place finisher could potentially miss out?

Does that make sense? Or am I overcompensating matters???

Not a likely scenario given how well Glasgow are doing, but just wondering how things will work with this quasi-meritocracy? Could get messy!

I think top 6 are going to make it as long as Glasgow play well. But if you finish in the top 5 you are sorted.

Do you think Edinburgh might go on a bit of a run and get into the mix. They have the players and did good against Treviso.

Possibly. They've picked up a great HC win against Munster which will give them confidence. In Solomons they've got a very astute coach, but we may not see his full impact until next season. I think we (Dragons) will be overtaken by at least one other welsh region, unfortunately. Therefore I see the top 6 finish, in no particular order, being:
Munster
Ospreys
Leinster
Ulster
Glasgow
Scarlets

Treviso for me will then get in as top Italian team, so the 6th placed team (e.g. Scarlets) will get the 7th spot.

I think Edinburgh have a decent chance of getting 7th, they're improving game by game as they adapt to Solomons game plan and a new defensive system. However if they do make 7th that probably won't qualify as it's likely that Treviso will then be outside the top 7. Edinburgh making the top 6 is too big an ask this year I feel.

justified sinner wrote:I think Edinburgh have a decent chance of getting 7th, they're improving game by game as they adapt to Solomons game plan and a new defensive system. However if they do make 7th that probably won't qualify as it's likely that Treviso will then be outside the top 7. Edinburgh making the top 6 is too big an ask this year I feel.

Edinburgh have a really bad pts for compared to the other teams which they'll need to improve on.

I am suprised a little by Dargons but I'd love to see them finish well.

Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Glasgow, Ospreys, Treviso, are all pretty much bankers.

The big question is whether the 7th seed will be Scarlets (4th last year but not as good this season), Blues (hot and icy cold), Dragons (good start but beginning to fade), Edinburgh (very poor start but slowly getting there), Connacht ( dark horses), Zebre (big budget and getting better all the time).

Artful_Dodger wrote:As expected, the big losers from this will be Scotland and Italy.

Or to put it another way, for years Scotland and Italy have been undeserving beneficiaries.

Munster Ulster Leinster
NGD Lannelli
Glasgow
Bennetton

It's more simple than it seems- finishing in the Top 5 is always automatic qualification and if Glasgow are in there Top 6 is automatic.

I think the current top 5 are all certainties- Munster, Glasgow, Ospreys, Ulster, Leinster. Treviso are a certainty and I think Scarlets will do just enough.

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:As expected, the big losers from this will be Scotland and Italy.

Or to put it another way, for years Scotland and Italy have been undeserving beneficiaries.

Munster Ulster Leinster
NGD Lannelli
Glasgow
Bennetton

No Ospreys? Big call. Easily the best welsh region (in the pro 12) this season. Also, out of Europe so able to focus resources on the league.

Seagultaf wrote:Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Glasgow, Ospreys, Treviso, are all pretty much bankers.

The big question is whether the 7th seed will be Scarlets (4th last year but not as good this season), Blues (hot and icy cold), Dragons (good start but beginning to fade), Edinburgh (very poor start but slowly getting there), Connacht ( dark horses), Zebre (big budget and getting better all the time).

Agree with the bankers you've put.

Not that I think we will finish top seven, but I don't think we are beginning to fade yet. We've just had two games on the spin v packs we aren't equipped to deal with (and away too). Be interested to see how we do against a likely weakened Leinster side this weekend, as even their seconds have been too good for us up till this season.

Griff wrote:Can someone explain to me the proposals if we do have the RCC, and if we do have guaranteed 1 from each Rabo nation? If Leinster, Ospreys, Glasgow and Treviso finished 1, 2, 3, 4 then I guess places 5 6 and 7 go to whatever teams finish there? Straightforward. What happens if, for example, Scotland's top team (but still guaranteed a place) finish 9 and Italy's finish 10th? The teams finishing 3rd, 4th and 5th will then get the 5th, 6th and 7th places, so does that mean that the 6th place finisher could potentially miss out?

Does that make sense? Or am I overcompensating matters???

Not a likely scenario given how well Glasgow are doing, but just wondering how things will work with this quasi-meritocracy? Could get messy!

Thats my understanding - its the top team from each nation - so take them out of the table - so then the top 3 in the leagues after those 4 teams are taken out of consideration