OWGR Week 3

Congratz to Golf's winners this week.

Pablo Larrazabal who beat two World Class Elite players down the stretch at Abu Dhabi.  He netted 48 OWGR ranking points and climbs to #53 in the OWGR.  That should guarantee him a spot in the Match Play and put in position to earn his first Masters Invite.

Patrick Reed wins in the Humana becoming the third player under age 25 (Rory, and Harris English) to have two PGATournament Titles.  He lit up the desert for the first three days and kind of limped home in Round 4.  He is now ranked #41 which should be good enough to get him both the Match Play and the Cadillac.  He is already qualified for the Masters.

And Prayad Marksaeng wins the Kings Cup on the Asian Tour and the 14 points should put him about #133 in the OWGR.

The Top 100 should look something like this:

1 Tiger Woods 11.05
2 Adam Scott 9.06
3 Henrik Stenson 8.85
4 Phil Mickelson 7.16
5 Justin Rose 6.78
6 Zach Johnson 6.42
7 Rory McIlroy 6.40
8 Matt Kuchar 6.08
9 Steve Stricker 5.42
10 Jason Day 5.08
11 Sergio Garcia 5.04
12 Ian Poulter 5.02
13 Jason Dufner 4.93
14 Brandt Snedeker 4.86
15 Dustin Johnson 4.75
16 Graeme McDowell 4.73
17 Jordan Spieth 4.69
18 Charl Schwartzel 4.61
19 Webb Simpson 4.43
20 Luke Donald 4.41
21 Jim Furyk 4.28
22 Keegan Bradley 4.13
23 Thomas Bjorn 3.76
24 Hideki Matsuyama 3.74
25 Jamie Donaldson 3.46
26 Lee Westwood 3.44
27 Louis Oosthuizen 3.44
28 Bill Haas 3.34
29 Ernie Els 3.34
30 Bubba Watson 3.26
31 Victor Dubuisson 3.24
32 Jimmy Walker 3.22
33 Ryan Moore 3.15
34 Nick Watney 3.08
35 Hunter Mahan 3.01
36 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.89
37 Miguel A Jimenez 2.78
38 Kevin Streelman 2.78
39 Graham Delaet 2.74
40 Billy Horschel 2.70
41 Patrick Reed 2.64
42 Francesco Molinari 2.64
43 Joost Luiten 2.63
44 Martin Kaymer 2.61
45 Matteo Manassero 2.58
46 Harris English 2.57
47 Thongchai Jaidee 2.56
48 Jonas  Blixt 2.56
49 Chris Kirk 2.54
50 Branden Grace 2.51
===========Cadillac and Masters Bubble Point
51 David  Lynn 2.50
52 Rickie Fowler 2.48
53 Pablo Larrazabal 2.36
54 Peter Hanson 2.27
55 Richard Sterne 2.26
56 Boo Weekley 2.23
57 Gary Woodland 2.22
58 Bernd Wiesberger 2.18
59 Scott Piercy 2.09
60 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 2.07
61 Brendon de Jonge 2.05
62 D.A. Points 1.99
63 Bo Van Pelt 1.99
64 Stephen Gallacher 1.97
65 Kim Hyung-sung 1.96
66 Peter Uihlein 1.94
=========== Match Play Bubble Point  (assuming Scott and Mickelson do not play)
67 Angel  Cabrera 1.92
68 Marc Leishman 1.90
69 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.88
70 Koumei Oda 1.87
71 Ryan Palmer 1.79
72 Roberto Castro 1.78
73 Ross Fisher 1.75
74 Nicolas Colsaerts 1.74
75 Charles Howell-III 1.73
76 Chris Wood 1.72
77 George Coetzee 1.72
78 Tim Clark 1.71
79 Shingo Katayama 1.70
80 Brett Rumford 1.70
81 Michael Thompson 1.69
82 Chris Stroud 1.68
83 Ryo Ishikawa 1.66
84 Luke Guthrie 1.64
85 Shane Lowry 1.63
86 Brooks Koepka 1.62
87 Martin Laird 1.61
88 Robert Garrigus 1.59
89 Matthew Jones 1.57
90 Hideto Tanihara 1.56
91 Mikko Ilonen 1.56
92 Tommy Fleetwood 1.56
93 David Howell 1.55
94 Marcel Siem 1.54
95 Russell Henley 1.54
96 Charley Hoffman 1.54
97 Paul Casey 1.53
98 John Merrick 1.52
99 Park Sung-Joon 1.50
100 Alexander Noren 1.48
=========
101 Anirban Lahiri 1.47
102 Marcus Fraser 1.46
103 Chesson Hadley 1.46

Thanks for picking up the ball these last few weeks geo....

I might also add the bubble point for the Match Play might be going down at least one, maybe two more. Rose has said he's not playing, and the rumors that TW would pick up ATT or Riviera over the Match Play picked up a lot of momentum last week after the Vonn pulling out of the OLYs announcement.

Is there any decent measure of the way players are moving in the world rankings. Sort of like their inertia?

McLaren wrote:Is there any decent measure of the way players are moving in the world rankings.  Sort of like their inertia?

a graph?

If McIlroy and caddy weren't so careless in taking a drop, and McIlroy had gone on to win, would he have moved up above ZJ?

Rory would have passed both ZJ and Rose if he had won.   But Mickelson with a theoretical solo third would have still been ahead of Rory.

Preliminary OWGR rating for Farmers is 54.  (Last year 50)
Preliminary OWGR rating for Qatar is 44. (Last year 48)

McLaren wrote:Is there any decent measure of the way players are moving in the world rankings.  Sort of like their inertia?

The OWGR site has been improved and overhauled in the last couple weeks.  Some of the enhancements might be what you are looking for.

Good to see the number of top players in the Farmers field, but also good to see all the WebDOTcom playoff guys (category 25) got in the field this week.  5 eligible in the category are not entered. Not sure the story on Hurley, O'Hair & Barnes, but Cantlay has been fighting back issues & Alvarado has supposedly indicated a March return.

GPB wrote:

McLaren wrote:Is there any decent measure of the way players are moving in the world rankings.  Sort of like their inertia?

The OWGR site has been improved and overhauled in the last couple weeks.  Some of the enhancements might be what you are looking for.

Thanks. It has totally changed, it no longer looks like a mid nineties web site. They have movement which is good, but I was thinking of something that predicted where a player was going. It is not always easy to work out who is falling down the rankings and who is climbing just from the snap shot of the rankings.

I appreciate any predictions are difficult but a simple measure of a players average points over their last ten events compared to the average they currently hold might reveal something, in terms of the their likely change in direction.

I would like to see a short term ranking system, something over the last 3 months (or even 6 months).

I find the Golfweek rankings can be a leading indicator of a player OWGR ranking.  They have a different methodology (head to head) where consistency is valued more than Winning  (Stricker is #1 in their system).

But the reason why it can be a leading indicator is that is more volatile and it is 12 months of results rather than 24 months.

Some Monday w/d's might crop a couple of points off the winning Farmer's harvest:
Reed
Overton
Davis
Every
Piercy

To be clear I would not want to see the actual world rankings based on a shorter period of time. Just an indicator of those likely to gain places through recent good play and those who are falling due to poor form.

There seems to be a lot of the top 50, that do not seem to do much, but somehow keep the points and ranking ticking along. Poulter at 12, when did he last compete to win an event let alone win one? Jason Day top 10, how many wins has he got in his career? How is he so high?

Best short term indicator of form is surely betting odds. Ladbroke's etc will feed a lot of statistics into models and run monte carlo simulations to establish odds on each outcome. Obviously the prices will then be skewed by popularity (i.e. a lot of people bet on Tiger so his odds will reflect that).

beninho wrote:There seems to be a lot of the top 50, that do not seem to do much, but somehow keep the points and ranking ticking along. Poulter at 12, when did he last compete to win an event let alone win one? Jason Day top 10, how many wins has he got in his career? How is he so high?

Poulter had 8 top tens out of 24 starts, a couple of 2nds, a 3rd, 4th, and 5th.
NOt going to drop much if you do that.

Really, i did not realise. But he never seems to actually contend for a title. it shows you only need to be decent every 3 events to keep a decent position.

I would have thought playing decent every 3 events would get you a very good ranking?

beninho wrote:Really, i did not realise. But he never seems to actually contend for a title. it shows you only need to be decent every 3 events to keep a decent position.

He's actually won a lot of tournaments Ben, didn't win last year but has an average of at least one a year over his career, and been in the top 30 for ages. Very much an early/late season player which is perhaps why his "success" is obsured a little by those who achieve in the main part of the year.
99% of pro's would like a career as good as his has been.

Read something interesting lately that despite the reported profit, he's never taken a penny out of IJP Design. Fair play.

I dont really have anything against him, im just surprised how high he is. He does get the odd high finish at a major i suppose, and then can top that up with some decent performances. On the other side im surprised Schwartzel is that low, but again i suppose i only see him perform in saffer land and the far east, with low points on offer i guess.

all about consistency I suppose. Never has Luke Donald type years, nor does he have Michael Campbell type years.

Win a major or lots of tournaments in one year, you're going to have to play pretty well in the next to continue collecting points at the rate at which you collected them the previous year, hence why 9C or Stenson could potentially drop like a stone this year, but Poulter could just have a few good results and maintain the status quo or there abouts.

kwinigolfer wrote:Some Monday w/d's might crop a couple of points off the winning Farmer's harvest:
Reed
Overton
Davis
Every
Piercy

I think it's holding in at 54... just barely though. Another top-80 WD would take it down two I think.