New coach syndrome...

We've seen it when Warren Gatland took the Welsh job = GS.

Then Kidney takes the reigns of Ireland = GS.

Lancaster takes the England job and massively improves England.

Similarly with Italy now.

The point is, is the international scene dominated by analysis to the point where new coaches find big success in first year on such a regular basis?

There will innevitably be other factors and reasoning, but it seems too much of a coincidence.

New blood in coaching terms will always highten alertness in players.  If they were mainstay players with the previous coach then they don't feel so safe with a new man coming in.  If they are fringe players, they feel a new coach will be more honest in looking at what they can do.  I don't think it's so much about analysis but more about a psychological boost in the fresh coaching approach.  Sometimes it lasts long enough to push a team over the line but sometimes it's just an initial boost with not much longevity(Italy today!!)

Scott Johnson. Your point is invalid.

PSA : has yet to make the top 2 of the 6N!

 Yes... I think this theory should be re-thought

Dean Ryan at Worcester?

I think it's like new fullback/winger syndrome. A guy appears and for a season or two, rips the world apart, then it worked out and has difficulty finding the space he used to. Not to say they become bad players, they just don't shine quite so brightly.

For every Ben Smith or Israel Dagg or Chris Ashton, there's always a jack Nowell who seems to disprove the theory. A new coach can make a huge difference, but not every new coach will.

For example Graham Henry had just an 87% win ratio, NZ change for Hansen and it goes up to 100%

butterfingers……you have dropped this thread.

Nematode wrote:Scott Johnson. Your point is invalid.

Scotland were third in the 6N last year. Have they ever been higher in the 6N?

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:

Nematode wrote:Scott Johnson. Your point is invalid.

Scotland were third in the 6N last year. Have they ever been higher in the 6N?

Scotland won 2 games - statistical quirk not a reflection of improvement

They were 3rd in 2005-6 when they won 3 games.
That was their last decent year

Fair enough geoff. That's rather depressing. I prefer to think of them as the last ever 5N holders.

I've been disappointed with Scott Johnson. He's supposedly a maverick who shakes things up and tries avant garde strategies. But so far he seems to have added nothing to where Brian Ashton left off.

My personal opinion is that Scotland need to go back to basics. Start with the set piece, scum, lineout and restart.  Identify players with potential for a three year horizon; manage their careers and then work on what Scotland's objective behind the scrum is. So far it seems to be damage limitation until the game is gone and to then throw caution to the wind. It's never going to be successful and you can't rely on passion to get you there in te modern game.

The Backline need to be playing in international shaddow combinations at club level for starters.

Brian Ashton? What am I talking about? You know the guy I mean.

butterfingers wrote:

Lancaster takes the England job and massively improves England.

They went from champions to second place. His win/loss ratio in his first year was worse than Englands had been for the previous 2 years.
How is that a massive instant improvement?

2010 6 Nations - 2 wins.
2011 6 Nations - 4 wins
2012 6 Nations - 4 wins.

Not a massive improvement in terms of results but given where we were coming from when Lancaster took over on an interim basis he did really well.