ERChampC places up for grabs in T14 run-in

With, I believe, just two weekends of regular season fixtures left, the fight for places in the elite European club competition is hotting up in the Orange T14:

Current leaderboard:
Position ~ Club ~ Points
1 Montpellier HRC 70
2 ASM Clermont Auvergne 69
3 RC Toulon 69
4 Racing Metro 65
5 Toulouse 62
6 Castres 62
7 Bordeaux Begles 59
8 Stade Francais 59
9 Brive 56
10 Grenoble 51
11 Perpignan 50
12 Bayonne 48
13 Oyonnaz 48
14 Biarritz 26

Biarritz are doomed for the drop, but who will join them? Any one of 4 teams (Grenoble, USAP, Bayonne and Oyonnax) could join them. That all important play-off spot is still there to be fought over with plenty of teams in consideration, likewise the top 6 spits for automatic ERChampC qualification, and of course the 7th spot for the play-off to decide on the final ERChampC qualifier vs 7th in the AP.


Remaining fixtures:
Club
v/@ ~ Oppo ~ W/L prediction

Montpellier
@ Castres L
v Racing W

ASM Clermont
@ Racing L
v Perpignan W

RC Toulon
@ Perpignan L
v Stade Francais W

Racing Metro
v Clermont W
@ Montpellier L

Toulouse
@ Oyonnax L
v Grenoble W

Castres
v Montpellier W
@ Bayonne W

Bordeaux Begles
@ Stade Francais L
v Biarritz W

Stade Francais
v Bordeax Begles W
@ Toulon L

Brive
@ Biarritz W
v Oyonnax W

Grenoble
v Bayonne W
@ Toulouse L

USA Perpignan
v Toulon W
@ Clermont L

Bayonne
@ Grenoble L
v Castres L

Oyonnax
v Toulouse W
@ Brive L

Biarritz
v Brive L
@ Bordeauz Begles L


I've mainly gone for home wins/away losses, with a couple of notable exceptions.


Predicted table:
Position ~ Club ~ Points
1 Montpellier HRC 74
2 ASM Clermont Auvergne 73
3 RC Toulon 73
4 Castres 70
5 Racing Metro 69
6 Toulouse 66
7 Brive 64
8 Bordeaux Begles 63
9 Stade Francais 63
10 Grenoble 54
11 Perpignan 54
12 Oyonnaz 52
13 Bayonne 48
14 Biarritz 26


So Brive to leapfrog (see what I did there?!) Bordeaux and Stade into the 7th/Euro play-off spot, and Bayonne joining their neighbours Biarritz in the drop

I, of course, defer to others, most particularly who cares, for greater predictive accuracy on the results!

Surely Montpellier will win the whole thing.
They've got Jim Hamilton and Johnny Beattie.
Where could it possibly go wrong?

Thanks for the post Asbo.
I think Toulouse will win their last 2 games and send poor Oyonnax back to pro D2 (the price for lack of BPs). I'd hope that Brive doesnt take that 7th spot, they add nothing to european rugby. Hopefully bordeaux or even stade francais takes it, they are at least entertaining to watch.

George Carlin wrote:Surely Montpellier will win the whole thing.
They've got Jim Hamilton and Johnny Beattie.
Where could it possibly go wrong?

That's right GC, not much
Montpelier have been my dark horse for the last 2/3 years and always failed to deliver. Seems familiar

whocares wrote:Thanks for the post Asbo.
I think Toulouse will win their last 2 games and send poor Oyonnax back to pro D2 (the price for lack of BPs).  I'd hope that Brive doesnt take that 7th spot, they add nothing to european rugby. Hopefully bordeaux or even stade francais takes it, they are at least entertaining to watch.

WhoCares - didn't Oyonnax post some big scalps in some of their earlier home games this season? I just assumed that they would be mid-table - why are they in trouble? Is it just lack of squad depth?

Also - as things stand, it would be a Clermont-Toulon semi final (i.e. a Heineken Cup final rematch). That should be epic.

WhoCares - is the lazy generalisation correct that French clubs care far more about the Top 14 than the Heineken Cup?

Oyonnax have indeed a good record at home but failed to collect BPs in too many games. Often this is the difference between 7/8th and 13th.
Brennus is the priority for most teams but Clermont for instance have the european trophy as their main target. To be fair, only 3/4 teams can realisticly do well in the HC while as we saw last year 6/7 can have a shot at the bouclier de Brennus with a bit of luck and some good form since the semi and final are on neutral ground.

George Carlin wrote:Also - as things stand, it would be a Clermont-Toulon semi final (i.e. a Heineken Cup final rematch). That should be epic.

WhoCares - is the lazy generalisation correct that French clubs care far more about the Top 14 than the Heineken Cup?

Not sure about that, GC, aren't the French playoffs slightly odd, ie 1st gets a semi-final bye, 2nd plays 5th, and 3rd plays 4th, or something?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

George Carlin wrote:Also - as things stand, it would be a Clermont-Toulon semi final (i.e. a Heineken Cup final rematch). That should be epic.

WhoCares - is the lazy generalisation correct that French clubs care far more about the Top 14 than the Heineken Cup?

Not sure about that, GC, aren't the French playoffs slightly odd, ie 1st gets a semi-final bye, 2nd plays 5th, and 3rd plays 4th, or something?

I thought 1st and 2nd have home semis, while 3rd play 6th and 4th v 5th to provide the opposition.

3rd plays 6th at home - winner plays 2nd on neutral ground I think
4th plays 5th at home - winner plays 1st as per above.
Final in Paris SDF.

whocares wrote:3rd plays 6th at home - winner plays 2nd on neutral ground  I think
4th plays 5th at home - winner plays 1st as per above.
Final in Paris SDF.

Well I never.

Well never thought I would see that happening but Perpignan has a foot in proD2.
USAP, Oyonnax and Bayonne are all level at 50 points with one game to go after last round... Perpignan did hold their own during 30 minutes or so before getting trampled by Toulon who didnt even gave them a LBP (the cynic in me thinks that Toulon is eeying some of Perpignan players who got a relegation clause...)
Perpignan is now travelling to Clermont on the last round, huge task for them as they cannot afford to come empty handed from that trip.

Wow - that's a crazy slide in form for Perp over the past 4 years.

Quite a few exiles might look to come back home if they go down to the Pro D2 - Al Strokosch, Luke Narraway, James Hook and Luke Charteris being the main ones. The irony for Tommy Allan is that if he'd chosen Scotland instead of Italy, Edinburgh would almost certainly be looking at him this summer. At present, I'm not sure what other club would sign him apart from perhaps Treviso.

So I managed to get a few results wrong, and now we have just one weekend of regular season fixtures left, the fight for places in the elite European club competition remains tight in the Orange T14:

Current leaderboard:
Position ~ Club ~ Points
1 RC Toulon 73
2 Montpellier HRC 71
3 ASM Clermont Auvergne 69
4 Racing Metro 69
5 Castres 66
6 Toulouse 64
7 Stade Francais 64
8 Bordeaux Begles 63
9 Brive 57
10 Grenoble 53
11 Bayonne 50
12 Oyonnaz 50
13 Perpignan 50
14 Biarritz 26

Biarritz are doomed for the drop, but who will join them?  Any one of 4 teams (Grenoble, USAP, Bayonne and Oyonnax) could join them.  That all important play-off spot is still there to be fought over with plenty of teams in consideration, likewise the top 6 spits for automatic ERChampC qualification, and of course the 7th spot for the play-off to decide on the final ERChampC qualifier vs 7th in the AP.


Remaining fixtures:
Club
v/@ ~ Oppo ~ W/L prediction

Montpellier
v Racing W

ASM Clermont
v Perpignan W

RC Toulon
v Stade Francais W

Racing Metro
@ Montpellier L

Toulouse
v Grenoble W

Castres
@ Bayonne W

Bordeaux Begles
v Biarritz W

Stade Francais
@ Toulon L

Brive
v Oyonnax W

Grenoble
@ Toulouse L

USA Perpignan
@ Clermont L

Bayonne
v Castres L

Oyonnax
@ Brive L

Biarritz
@ Bordeauz Begles L


I've mainly gone for home wins/away losses, with a couple of notable exceptions.


Predicted table:
Position ~ Club ~ Points
1 RC Toulon 77
2 Montpellier HRC 75
3 ASM Clermont Auvergne 73
4 Castres 70
5 Racing Metro 69
6 Toulouse 68
7 Stade Francais 64
8 Brive 61
9 Bordeaux Begles 59
10 Grenoble 53
11 Bayonne 50
12 Oyonnaz 50
13 Perpignan 50
14 Biarritz 26


So Stade secure the 7th/Euro play-off spot, and USAP joining Biarritz in the drop




Over to whocares for more expert insight

you think neither Bordeaux nor Biarritz will get a single point from their match against each other?

#controversial #alternatepointssystem

the top 3 are all at home, so should all win. Clermont should prob get a BP vs Perpignan, but that won't make any difference anyway. I fancy Bayonne, at home and with their backs to the wall, to sneak a win vs Castres which will make them safe. With Perpignan IMO unlikely to get anything at Clermont, they look doomed. Oyonnax might well grab a LBP at Brive too. My prediction:

1 RC Toulon 77
2 Montpellier HRC 75
3 ASM Clermont Auvergne 74
4 Racing Metro 70
5 Toulouse 68
6 Castres 67
7 Stade Francais 64
8 Bordeaux Bègles 64
9 Brive 61
10 Bayonne 54
11 Grenoble 53
12 Oyonnaz 51
13 Perpignan 50
14 Biarritz 26

Apologies, MfC, I had put Bordeaux down for the win in the fixtures but forgotten to carry it thru to the final predicted table

Bordeaux will win with a TBP against a very desinterested BO . 5 points for them. which means that Stade Français will have to bring a BP from their trip to Toulon... not impossible as Toulon only needs a draw to secure one of the 2 semi spots.
I cant see bayonne losing at home to Castres who looked out of sorts last weekend. Oyonnax needs to get a LBP in Brive who has nothing to play for, should be easy for anyone else but their away record has been so dire that I cannot bet on it happening. As for Perpignan it all depends which ASM they will be facing...if it's one with a sore head after another european desilusion then anything might happen...
 
othewise as wild guesses go, I quite fancy Racing to win in Montpelier and Jim Hamilton to get another Yellow Card

what are the tiebreakers if two teams finish level on points whocares? as looks likely to happen with Bordeaux and SF, and could well happen for that second relegation spot.

BPs always play a huge part in the Top14, due to the rare away wins. For instance Racing would actually be top if you removed BPs altogether (15 wins, 2 draws, compared to 15 wins & 1 draw for Toulon, all other teams have fewer wins). SF would also be a fair bit higher in the table.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:what are the tiebreakers if two teams finish level on points whocares? as looks likely to happen with Bordeaux and SF, and could well happen for that second relegation spot.

BPs always play a huge part in the Top14, due to the rare away wins. For instance Racing would actually be top if you removed BPs altogether (15 wins, 2 draws, compared to 15 wins & 1 draw for Toulon, all other teams have fewer wins). SF would also be a fair bit higher in the table.

the 1st tiebreaker for teams tied up is overall point scored in their head to head games so Bordeaux has the upper hand (lost 37-23 but won 45-23 at home)

Perpignan put on a brave fight against clermont, even leading during most of the game but that wasnt enough... 22-24 loss, 1Lbp but still the end of a century of topflight rugby in france.
Toulon and Montpelier get the semifinal direct spots while the playoffs will be Toulouse-racing and Clermont-Castres. Thanks to a Lbp, Stade Francais gets the 7th place and euro playoff spot

25-22 wasn't it, whocares?   

Geez... a point or two in it!

Perpignan finish just below Oyonnax (also on 51; PD of -106) but with a points differential of -107.

Yeah thanks for correcting me LB. 1st time a team gets relegated with more than 50 points as far as I remember.
Its head to head with Oyonnax that ultimately sent Perpignan down though.
This last round of the T14 with all games being played at same time iwas a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.

I can imagine.

The thing I really notice in T14 is how a relatively low placed team playing at home can often produce an 'upset' against a much higher placed team. (that sort of home advantage isn't so critical in the NRL in Oz for instance... although you do get the odd surprise result here and there.)

Hence, the relatively compressed points table with all teams spread between 51 and 77 pts... except for poor old Biarritz on 30!

So Lyon and one of Agen, La Rochelle gets promoted? Pau (I had a neighbour from there) can't make it, can they?

Still amazing to see Perpignan getting relegated. And going south with Biarritz, to boot. Both teams have been mainstays in the Heineken Cup and the Top 14. Shows how competitive the Top 14 is.

LB, Pau and Narbonne will compete with Agen and La Rochelle for the last spot.

Linebreaker wrote:I can imagine.

The thing I really notice in T14 is how a relatively low placed team playing at home can often produce an 'upset' against a much higher placed team. (that sort of home advantage isn't so critical in the NRL in Oz for instance... although you do get the odd surprise result here and there.)

Hence, the relatively compressed points table with all teams spread between 51 and 77 pts... except for poor old Biarritz on 30!

So Lyon and one of Agen, La Rochelle gets promoted? Pau (I had a neighbour from there) can't make it, can they?

It's because in the T14 you rarely see a full strenght team away from home.

Thought Perpignan got screwed yesterday with some very soft yellows against them in the last quarter. Whats up with these French refs throwing cards at will?
Would like to get a stats about cards i'm sure the T14 as the most cards per game of all the leagues.

Teams that have qualified for the ERcC;

Leinster
Munster
Ulster

Ospreys
Scarlets

Glasgow

Toulon
Montpellier
Clermont
Toulouse
Racing Metro
Castres

Saracens
Northampton Saints
Leicester Tigers
Bath Rugby
Harlequins
Sale Sharks

To be decided;

Winner of playoff between Stade Francais vs London Wasps/Exeter Chiefs (whoever claims 7th)
Zebre/Treviso- whoever finishes higher in the Pro12 table

Notch - if Exeter win their last two games and get 9/10 points (Quins at home today and Falcons away on Sat.) and Wasps get nothing from their game at Northampton, then Exe will be in the play off v SF.

Aha! Exeter have a game in hand. Well spotted

VinceWLB wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:I can imagine.

The thing I really notice in T14 is how a relatively low placed team playing at home can often produce an 'upset' against a much higher placed team. (that sort of home advantage isn't so critical in the NRL in Oz for instance... although you do get the odd surprise result here and there.)

Hence, the relatively compressed points table with all teams spread between 51 and 77 pts... except for poor old Biarritz on 30!

So Lyon and one of Agen, La Rochelle gets promoted? Pau (I had a neighbour from there) can't make it, can they?

It's because in the T14 you rarely see a full strenght team away from home.

Thought Perpignan got screwed yesterday with some very soft yellows against them in the last quarter. Whats up with these French refs throwing cards at will?
Would like to get a stats about cards i'm sure the T14 as the most cards per game of all the leagues.

Good question so had to look for the stats

http://www.lnr.fr/statistiques-generales.html#top14

299 yellow cards in 182 games = 1.64 per game in average. I thought it was more!

The last round had actually probably more than the average : clermont managed to have both wingers sent to the bin while stade francais got 3 yellow cards (the ref was overcompensating after giving a red to toulon lock).
French refs are generally a disgrace, they should be professionals as after all there is money for that.

whocares wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:I can imagine.

The thing I really notice in T14 is how a relatively low placed team playing at home can often produce an 'upset' against a much higher placed team. (that sort of home advantage isn't so critical in the NRL in Oz for instance... although you do get the odd surprise result here and there.)

Hence, the relatively compressed points table with all teams spread between 51 and 77 pts... except for poor old Biarritz on 30!

So Lyon and one of Agen, La Rochelle gets promoted? Pau (I had a neighbour from there) can't make it, can they?

It's because in the T14 you rarely see a full strenght team away from home.

Thought Perpignan got screwed yesterday with some very soft yellows against them in the last quarter. Whats up with these French refs throwing cards at will?
Would like to get a stats about cards i'm sure the T14 as the most cards per game of all the leagues.

Good question so had to look for the stats

http://www.lnr.fr/statistiques-generales.html#top14

299 yellow cards in 182 games = 1.64 per game in average. I thought it was more!

The last round had actually probably more than the average : clermont managed to have both wingers sent to the bin while stade francais got 3 yellow cards (the ref was overcompensating after giving a red to toulon lock).
French refs are generally a disgrace, they should be professionals as after all there is money for that.

Thanks for that, with the link you provided i see there have been 15 red too, so thats 1.72 cards per game which is a lot, i mean any time i switch to a T14 game there is always a card!

I did the research for the rabo: http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/statzone/specsavers_fair_play_league.php

So thats 148 cards for 126 games, 1.17 average.

I think this is quite a substantial difference and the irb should to take a look at it as it is not easy for Rabo teams to adapt to French referees and vice versa.

Thanks Vince. Agree, with all the tv money pouring into the game, about time the powers that be take proper action at amateur refereing.
I tried to find the similar AP stats but got nowhere.

They have a whole section about stats on their site but nothing about cards lol