Heino (or replacement) places up for grabs in AP run-in

Assuming that there won't be much change in the top 4 places in the table, it seems to me that there are 5 sides in with a shout of capturing the last two Heino places.

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 59 Northampton
2 58 Saracens
3 49 Bath
4 44 Leicester Tigers
5 41 Harlequins
6 39 Sale Sharks
7 34 London Wasps
8 30 Exeter
9 27 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 16 Newcastle Falcons
12 4 Worcester

So looking at the games remaining for the 5th & 6th place challengers, here are some possible outcomes for the remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Quins
Worc H - Win
Sar A - Loss
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win (poss loss)
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Sale
Wasps A L
Saints H L
Bath A L
Quins H L (poss win)
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Wasps
Sale H W
Worc A W
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter

Irish H W
Tigers A L
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
Saints A L
New H W
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W

End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
53 Harlequins
43 Sale Sharks
50 London Wasps
50 Exeter
39 Gloucester


Thoughts?

I wish I was as confident as you re Tigers making Top 4, Asbo.

I would say that Sale should not be underestimated and I would expect them to win more than just 1 of their 7 remaining matches. Wasps however are struggling right now - and have to beat Sale this weekend.

Sale look to have the hardest run-in. They could conceivably lose all 7, but on the flip side could win 3 or 4 of those.

To be honest I think Quins could win all those matches.

41+28 would give them 69.

Saracens away is effectively a leveller because it's at Wembley. Leicester and Bath at the Stoop should be beatable.


I think Leicester have quite a tough run in after their first match.

Leicester

Newcastle A Win
Exeter H Win
Saints A Loss
Wasps H Win
Quins A Loss
Sale A Poss Loss
Sarries H Poss Loss

If Leicester do only win 3 of their next 7 they will be on around 56 which puts Quins in with a potential chance to overhaul them for 4th.


I cannot see Sale winning just 1 in their next 7. I could see them winning 4.

Which 4, beshocked?

Sale
Wasps A L
Saints H L
Bath A L
Quins H L (poss win)
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Wasps,Quins,Exeter and London Irish

It will show how important BP's are.

With Manu coming back. and Croft and Parling rumoured to be back March. and Benjamin and Morris I think will be back.

 If it all clicks I would back them to beat Quins (A), and Sarries (H).

 Saints away is tough because it never been about ability but about confidence. Form goes out the window for the Midlands derby games.

 Tigers have it tough but if things start to click who knows.

 Bowden and Manu centre partnership would be very dangerous attacking wise.

It is a long time since we lost to Saints, home or away - getting a draw when largely outplayed earlier this season.

For what it is worth I reckon we will get to the last game of the season needing to beat Saracens to make the Top 4.

beshocked wrote:Wasps,Quins,Exeter and London Irish

Don't think we've ever lost to Sale at home, and I don't see it happening this season

Quins could win every game or lose all of them. We've become over reliant on three players and when Robshaw, Care and Evans aren't there the team is often a shambles.

Add to that we'd just got over the Johnston/Kohn crises only to lose Collier and find out that Kennedy is pap which means we now have the worst front 5 of the top teams, especially playing in these poor conditions.

On the flip side when the sun comes out hopefully we can start tearing it up again.

Thoughts??... I really hope we don't finish with 39 points.  This has been a dreadful season and top 6 isn't going to happen, but since the shambolic performance against Sarries we have been steadily improving.  A lack of composure cost us wins at Sale and Tigers, but the performance was far better.  Even with my bias view, we outplayed Quins, so I will slightly reserve my judgement until after the Saints game this weekend; I'm not expecting a win, but a decent performance.  If this happens we'll get more than 3 more wins and will upset a few teams trying to bag a top 6 place.  

We're just going to have to win the Amlin to get into the HC next year...   

Personally I feel the top 6 will stay as it is at present; the only thing to decide is whether Quins or Tigers finish 4th.

Who do you think will finish third then HKC?

Bathite wrote:Who do you think will finish third then HKC?

Please don't make me answer that!!  

Hahah! That was the plan

So did this weekend play out?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Assuming that there won't be much change in the top 4 places in the table, it seems to me that there are 5 sides in with a shout of capturing the last two Heino places.

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 59 Northampton
2 58 Saracens
3 49 Bath
4 44 Leicester Tigers
5 41 Harlequins
6 39 Sale Sharks
7 34 London Wasps
8 30 Exeter
9 27 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 16 Newcastle Falcons
12 4 Worcester

So looking at the games remaining for the 5th & 6th place challengers, here are some possible outcomes for the remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Quins
Worc H - Win (just!)
Sar A - Loss
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win (poss loss)
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Sale
Wasps A L - good narrow away win
Saints H L
Bath A L
Quins H L (poss win)
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Wasps
Sale H W - bad narrow home loss
Worc A W
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter

Irish H W
Tigers A L
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
Saints A L
New H W
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W

End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
53 Harlequins
43 Sale Sharks
50 London Wasps
50 Exeter
39 Gloucester


Thoughts?

So how does that change things?

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 64 Northampton
2 62 Saracens
3 49 Bath
4 49 Leicester Tigers
5 45 Harlequins
6 43 Sale Sharks
7 35 London Wasps
8 34 Exeter
9 27 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 16 Newcastle Falcons
12 5 Worcester


The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Quins
Sar A - Loss
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Sale
Saints H L
Bath A L
Quins H L
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Wasps
Worc A W
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter
Tigers A L
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
New H W
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
53 Quins
47 Sale Sharks
47 London Wasps
50 Exeter
39 Gloucester


Exe vs Sale at Sandy Park becomes a massive fixture potentially; likewise Quins away to Sale could be an important one.

Exeter have a pretty nice final 6 matches. You should be able to make top 6.

Tigers look in a good position to get 3rd now after that win vs Newcastle and Bath's loss to Sarries though they still need to face Saints,Quins and Sarries.

Quins have a tough run in. The only saving grace is that they don't have to face Saints again.

Poor Sale will have to take on a full strength Saints.

LondonTiger wrote:It is a long time since we lost to Saints, home or away - getting a draw when largely outplayed earlier this season.

For what it is worth I reckon we will get to the last game of the season needing to beat Saracens to make the Top 4.

Youbetcherarse. Saints owe you one. Or two. Or three. And you are away at Clermont the week after we play each other. Two physically tough matches in a row.

Hoping to get over that weekend. Me old man has tix to Saints-Tigers, and I know he is sitting on an extra just in case his wayward son comes over slumming for a place to stay and a free meal.

So we're back to league action this weekend, and with the starting international players likely still missing, but with the bench internationalists possibly returning, a little bit more of this puzzle could be revealed. From the sketchy details of the new Euro cup competition, it sounds like the AP will later their qualification format from Top 5 + LV=Cup winners (if English, else Top 6) to a simple Top 6 - even more for these clubs to play for

aslongasbut100ofus are the starters seriously going to be missing? You honestly think there will be no Brown,Marler,Robshaw,Care,Farrell or Mako at Wembley?

beshocked wrote:aslongasbut100ofus are the starters seriously going to be missing? You honestly think there will be no Brown,Marler,Robshaw,Care,Farrell or Mako at Wembley?

Not sure, beshocked, that was my working assumption- do you think they'll come back straight in? I was struggling to remember what has happened in previous seasons, and I suppose it somewhat depends on how critical the match is to either team's fortunes in terms of what is left to play for

I think it dependent on the players last year. I seem to remember Robshaw not playing but other went straight in.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:So did this weekend play out?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Assuming that there won't be much change in the top 4 places in the table, it seems to me that there are 5 sides in with a shout of capturing the last two Heino places.

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 59 Northampton
2 58 Saracens
3 49 Bath
4 44 Leicester Tigers
5 41 Harlequins
6 39 Sale Sharks
7 34 London Wasps
8 30 Exeter
9 27 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 16 Newcastle Falcons
12 4 Worcester

So looking at the games remaining for the 5th & 6th place challengers, here are some possible outcomes for the remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Quins
Worc H - Win (just!)
Sar A - Loss
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win (poss loss)
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Sale
Wasps A L - good narrow away win
Saints H L
Bath A L
Quins H L (poss win)
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Wasps
Sale H W - bad narrow home loss
Worc A W
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter

Irish H W
Tigers A L
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
Saints A L
New H W
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W

End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
53 Harlequins
43 Sale Sharks
50 London Wasps
50 Exeter
39 Gloucester


Thoughts?

So how does that change things?

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 64 Northampton
2 62 Saracens
3 49 Bath
4 49 Leicester Tigers
5 45 Harlequins
6 43 Sale Sharks
7 35 London Wasps
8 34 Exeter
9 27 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 16 Newcastle Falcons
12 5 Worcester


The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Quins
Sar A - Loss curious resting of England players, perhaps being saved for greater things
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Sale
Saints H L Good home win, helps immensely
Bath A L
Quins H L
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Wasps
Worc A W Just
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter
Tigers A L Hangover from LV= heroics
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
New H W Hmm, result achieved but porous defence
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
53 Quins
47 Sale Sharks
47 London Wasps
50 Exeter
39 Gloucester


Exe vs Sale at Sandy Park becomes a massive fixture potentially; likewise Quins away to Sale could be an important one.

So that leaves it looking like this:


Current table:
Position Points Team
1 67 Saracens
2 64 Northampton
3 54 Bath
4 54 Leicester Tigers
5 47 Sale Sharks
6 45 Harlequins
7 39 London Wasps
8 34 Exeter
9 32 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 18 Newcastle Falcons
12 6 Worcester

The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Sale
Bath A L
Quins H L
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Quins
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Wasps
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
51 Sale Sharks
57 Quins
47 London Wasps
50 Exeter
40 Gloucester


Exe vs Sale at Sandy Park becomes a massive fixture potentially; likewise Quins away to Sale could be an important one.

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 72 Saracens
2 65 Northampton
3 58 Leicester Tigers
4 55 Bath
5 51 Sale Sharks
6 49 Harlequins
7 39 London Wasps
8 36 Gloucester
9 35 Exeter
10 26 London Irish
11 18 Newcastle Falcons
12 6 Worcester

Unless the LV win gives Chiefs a spot, looks now as if the current top 6 will make it to next seasons new comp, with Wasps, Glaws and Exeter fighting out to be in the play-off. (assuming WRU sign the agreement of course)

That LV= spot is a bit of a potentially unexploded bomb in the context of the new Euro Cup qualifying arrangements.

Has it been properly defused I wonder?

It would represent a huge embarrassment to RFU/PRL if it hasn't.

Have LV a contractual arrangement in their sponsorship deal with RFU/PRL for their winners (if English) to go through to the EC?

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:That LV= spot is a bit of a potentially unexploded bomb in the context of the new Euro Cup qualifying arrangements.

Has it been properly defused I wonder?

It would represent a huge embarrassment to RFU/PRL if it hasn't.

Have LV a contractual arrangement in their sponsorship deal with RFU/PRL for their winners (if English) to go through to the EC?

Why is it a problem? All we know is that AP is guaranteed 6 entrants - nothing formally announced as to how they qualify.

Really nothing officially announced at all.

But some people seem to be suggesting that winning a competition to gain qualification for Europe goes against the idea of qualifying on merit.

LondonTiger wrote:

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 72 Saracens
2 65 Northampton
3 58 Leicester Tigers
4 55 Bath
5 51 Sale Sharks
6 49 Harlequins
7 39 London Wasps
8 36 Gloucester
9 35 Exeter
10 26 London Irish
11 18 Newcastle Falcons
12 6 Worcester

Unless the LV win gives Chiefs a spot, looks now as if the current top 6 will make it to next seasons new comp, with Wasps, Glaws and Exeter fighting out to be in the play-off. (assuming WRU sign the agreement of course)

Totally agree, LT - Chiefs made a complete hash of it this weekend with a completely lacklustre (and uncharacteristic) performance - 7th is the best that we can hope for now, and we must first battle Wasps and Glaws to secure that spot, then take on 7th in the T14 to qualify for the premier European competition - ah well, if it must be done the hard way!



PS Will update the remaining fixtures et al tomorrow

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

So that leaves it looking like this:


Current table:
Position Points Team
1 67 Saracens
2 64 Northampton
3 54 Bath
4 54 Leicester Tigers
5 47 Sale Sharks
6 45 Harlequins
7 39 London Wasps
8 34 Exeter
9 32 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 18 Newcastle Falcons
12 6 Worcester

The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Sale
Bath A L
Quins H L
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Quins
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Wasps
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
51 Sale Sharks
57 Quins
47 London Wasps
50 Exeter
40 Gloucester


Exe vs Sale at Sandy Park becomes a massive fixture potentially; likewise Quins away to Sale could be an important one.

Hmm, not exactly as I'd envisioned it then?!

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 72 Saracens
2 65 Northampton
3 58 Leicester Tigers
4 55 Bath
5 51 Sale Sharks
6 49 Harlequins
7 39 London Wasps
8 36 Gloucester
9 35 Exeter
10 26 London Irish
11 18 Newcastle Falcons
12 6 Worcester


The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Sale
Quins H L
Exe A L/Poss win
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Quins
Sale A - Win
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - W/Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Wasps
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Glous
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W

Exeter
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
55 Sale Sharks
57 Quins
47 London Wasps
44 Gloucester
47 Exeter


So 5th & 6th places look set to be between Sale and Quins, with Wasps, Glaws and Chiefs competing for that 7th spot and a play-off chance against 7th in T14 for European big-time. Several critical matches await, incl. Sale at home to Quins and away to Exe, Quins away to Exe, and Wasps at home to Glaws

Sale v Quins is now a massive game. Defeat for Quins (especially if tied in with wins for Leicester and Bath) would pretty much rule them out of Play-off contention.

So we want Sale to win and Bath to lose again, right ?

Sale win, with Quins BP, Bath to lose with no BP. That's what we want

Boom

Does anyone know the details of the playoff game? Is it a one and done fixture or is it aggregated over two legs?

Boom indeed Munchkin.

bandwagonman, the competition doesn't exist at the moment and may never exists so we can't really say. I had heard it was to be 2 legged but I think there's a lot of speculation on the actual format (such as they being supposedly 5 teams in the playoff, AP, T14, 2x PRO12 and ACC winner).

We'll have to wait.

Wait ? But I'm angry now !

munkian wrote:Wait ? But I'm angry now !

Puny humans!!

  Hang on, why does everyone want Quins to lose? We're the nice London club! All seems a little unfair to me...

'nice London club' sounds a bit like 'Girl Power'

Yappysnap I don't want you to lose. I am indifferent.

Aslongasbut100ofus you keep putting down Sale to lose - I did say I thought they would get more than 1 win. I put down 4/7, they have 3 already!

  

beshocked wrote:Yappysnap I don't want you to lose. I am indifferent.

Aslongasbut100ofus you keep putting down Sale to lose - I did say I thought they would get more than 1 win. I put down 4/7, they have 3 already!

You did, and have been right more often than not so far I didn't see them winning to teams above them, even at home, and I'm going to stick to that view though

We are going to win our remaining 4 games. Not sure it will quite be enough necessarily, especially as teams will get LBPs off us

Wouldnt be too sure you have us (Sale) next with us at home. I still think you are the favourites but amazingly I am in the place this season where my hopes of a win are not in cloud cuckoo land. Work is taking some clients along and I have managed to blag my way in as well, huzzah!

I'm not sure, but I'm hopeful

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

So that leaves it looking like this:


Current table:
Position Points Team
1 67 Saracens
2 64 Northampton
3 54 Bath
4 54 Leicester Tigers
5 47 Sale Sharks
6 45 Harlequins
7 39 London Wasps
8 34 Exeter
9 32 Gloucester
10 26 London Irish
11 18 Newcastle Falcons
12 6 Worcester

The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Sale
Bath A L
Quins H L
Exe A L
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Quins
Irish H - Win
Sale A - Win
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Wasps
Sar H L
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Exeter
Glous H W
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W

Glous
Exe A L
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
51 Sale Sharks
57 Quins
47 London Wasps
50 Exeter
40 Gloucester


Exe vs Sale at Sandy Park becomes a massive fixture potentially; likewise Quins away to Sale could be an important one.

Hmm, not exactly as I'd envisioned it then?!  

Current table:
Position Points Team
1 72 Saracens
2 65 Northampton
3 58 Leicester Tigers
4 55 Bath
5 51 Sale Sharks
6 49 Harlequins
7 39 London Wasps
8 36 Gloucester
9 35 Exeter
10 26 London Irish
11 18 Newcastle Falcons
12 6 Worcester


The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Sale
Quins H L
Exe A L/Poss win
Tigers H L
Irish A W

Quins
Sale A - Win
Tigers H - Poss Loss
Exe A - W/Poss Loss
Bath H - Poss Loss

Wasps
Tigers A L
Glous H W
New H W
Saints A L

Glous
Bath H L
Wasps A L
Irish H W
Worc A W

Exeter
Worc A W
Sale H W
Quins H L
New A W


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
55 Sale Sharks
57 Quins
47 London Wasps
44 Gloucester
47 Exeter


So 5th & 6th places look set to be between Sale and Quins, with Wasps, Glaws and Chiefs competing for that 7th spot and a play-off chance against 7th in T14 for European big-time.  Several critical matches await, incl. Sale at home to Quins and away to Exe, Quins away to Exe, and Wasps at home to Glaws

Current table:
Position Points Team
5 54 Harlequins
6 51 Sale Sharks
7 40 Exeter
8 39 London Wasps
9 37 Gloucester


The remaining games (oposition home/away win/loss):

Quins
Tigers H - L
Exe A - L
Bath H - W

Sale
Exe A - L
Tigers H - L
Irish A - W

Exeter
Sale H - W
Quins H - W
New A - W

Wasps
Glous H - W
New H - W
Saints A - L

Glous
Wasps A - L
Irish H - L
Worc A - L


End points excluding bonus points:
End Points Team
58 Quins
55 Sale Sharks
52 Exeter
47 London Wasps
37 Gloucester


So Quins looks comfortable in 5th and Sale should take 6th, with Wasps and Chiefs competing for that 7th spot and a play-off chance against 7th in T14 for European big-time (currently Toulouse, I think) - I'm counting Glaws out of it now after the debacle at Kingsholm which I can see having major ramifications for the club. Of course, bonus points could still come in to play. A couple of critical matches await, incl. Sale away to Exe and Quins away to Exe

Wasps rested a lot of important players for their visit to us, and as such looked really disjointed.

I agree though that they are unlikely to beat Saints in the final round. Whether Exeter will win all 3 matches - well I am not so sure.

LondonTiger wrote:Wasps rested a lot of important players for their visit to us, and as such looked really disjointed.

I agree though that they are unlikely to beat Saints in the final round. Whether Exeter will win all 3 matches - well I am not so sure.

Would you like to boorw my Chiefs-tinted glasses, LT?! That should make it clearer!!

We will win our remaining 3 matches

Not so sure, your esteemed Royal Doctor-ness

ChequeredJersey wrote:We will win our remaining 3 matches

Perhaps. Could lose them all too, quite easily.

going to make the run-in quite interesting. quins also have an outside shot of making the playoff if we can put a few points on Bath

definitely not confident in us winning our last 3 matches. But v confident we will not finish outside the top 6.