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Heino places in the AP

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formerly known as Sam
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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 22 Feb 2012, 9:12 am

Pinched this from another site, but thought that it was an interesting way of looking at the run-in for the AP, with an all-important top 6 Heineken rugby place up for grabs for a number of teams. It's still very tight in the middle of the pack, and I'm not sure I'd agree with all the score predictions below:

As it stands:
==============================
Team P W D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins 15 13 0 2 3 55
2 Saracens 15 11 1 3 3 49
3 Northampton 15 9 0 6 5 41
4 Leicester 15 8 1 6 6 40
5 Exeter 15 8 0 7 7 39
6 Gloucester 15 7 1 7 7 37
==============================

Top 6 Remaining Fixtures (predicted points)

Worcester v Saracens (1/4)
Exeter v Bath (4/1)
Gloucester v Harlequins (4/1)
Leicester v Newcastle (4/1)
London Irish v Northampton (4/1)

Newcastle v Harlequins (1/4)
Exeter v Sale (4/1)
Leicester v Gloucester (4/1)
Saracens v Northampton (4/1)

Sale v Saracens (4/1)
Gloucester v Exeter (4/0)
Harlequins v Bath (4/0)
Northampton v Wasps (5/0)
London Irish v Leicester (4/0)

Bath v Northampton (1/4)
Exeter v London Irish (4/1)
Leicester v Worcester (4/0)
Saracens v Harlequins (4/1)
Wasps v Gloucester (0/4)

Gloucester v Newcastle (5/0)
Harlequins v Wasps (5/0)
London Irish v Saracens (0/4)
Northampton v Leicester (4/1)
Worcester v Exeter (4/1)

Newcastle v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Sale (4/0)
Harlequins v Leicester (4/0)
Exeter v Northampton (1/4)

Leicester v Bath (4/0)
London Irish v Gloucester (4/1)
Northampton v Worcester (4/0)
Sale v Harlequins (1/4)
Saracens v Exeter (4/0)

Predicted final table:
===============================
Team P W D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins 22 18 0 4 6 78
2 Saracens 22 17 1 4 4 74
3 Northampton 22 14 0 8 8 62
4 Gloucester 22 12 1 9 10 60
5 Leicester 22 12 1 9 7 57
6 Exeter 22 11 0 11 9 53
===============================

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Post by Mickado Wed 22 Feb 2012, 9:25 am

So As, if that was the final 6 then it would be 5 of the same 6 from this year that qualify for next year.

I thought one half of the league was trying desperately not to be relegated and the other half was clamoring for a HC place.

Massive respect to the Chiefs if they do upset the status quo though.

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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 22 Feb 2012, 9:46 am

Mickado wrote:So As, if that was the final 6 then it would be 5 of the same 6 from this year that qualify for next year.

I thought one half of the league was trying desperately not to be relegated and the other half was clamoring for a HC place.

Massive respect to the Chiefs if they do upset the status quo though.
Mick, yes, that's correct. Still a long shot for the Chief but you never know!

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Post by formerly known as Sam Wed 22 Feb 2012, 9:58 am

London Irish v Leicester (4/0)

If this came to pass I'd be very disappointed. The fact we drew at Welford Rd was shockingly bad considering how we controlled the game in the first half. Similarly I'd be suprised if we were niled points wise by Quins. Lose we may but I think they'll be tight games with margins of less than 7 points.

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Post by geoff998rugby Wed 22 Feb 2012, 10:03 am

I would have to say I would be very very surprised if Leicester only get 1 point form those 3 away games. In fact it looks 4 or 5 points short of the likely scenario

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Post by Ozzy3213 Wed 22 Feb 2012, 10:37 am

That table is flawed as on some weeks you have the teams who are currently in 7th/8th place results and not on others.

The current points margin is so small from 3rd to 8th they have to be included as they could end up in the top 6.


Just saying Wink
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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 22 Feb 2012, 10:46 am

Ozzy3213 wrote:That table is flawed as on some weeks you have the teams who are currently in 7th/8th place results and not on others.

The current points margin is so small from 3rd to 8th they have to be included as they could end up in the top 6.


Just saying Wink
I think that the games are only meant to cover those teams that are currently in the top 6 spots, so they are not universal. If time allows, I will try to create a universal version OK

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Post by Kingshu Wed 22 Feb 2012, 10:59 am

Personally based on recent results I think that Irish entry should be increased to 4 automatic entries and England or Wales automatic entries be reduced by one.

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Post by formerly known as Sam Wed 22 Feb 2012, 11:34 am

Personally based on recent results I think that Irish entry should be increased to 4 automatic entries and England or Wales automatic entries be reduced by one..

Nah you're alright. Might take the element of competition out of the Irish teams given that all of them would be guarenteed a place in the competition irrelevent of how well they played. Would affect the cash flows within the game and seeing as most AP teams aren't heavilly funded by their Union it would mean that some would be facing hard times.

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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 22 Feb 2012, 11:36 am

OK, here's the full version:

Current table:

TeamPTS
1Harlequins55
2Saracens49
3Northampton41
4Leicester40
5Exeter39
6Gloucester37
7Sale35
8London Irish34
9Bath30
10Worcester27
11Wasps23
12Newcastle17
================================================

Remaining fixtures:


Sale v Wasps (/)
Worcester v Saracens (/)
Exeter v Bath (/)
Gloucester v Harlequins (/)
Leicester v Newcastle (/)
London Irish v Northampton (/)

Newcastle v Harlequins (/)
Exeter v Sale (/)
Bath v Worcester (/)
Wasps v London Irish (/)
Leicester v Gloucester (/)
Saracens v Northampton (/)

Sale v Saracens (/)
Gloucester v Exeter (/)
Harlequins v Bath (/)
Northampton v Wasps (/)
Worceser v Newcastle (/)
London Irish v Leicester (/)

Newcastle v Sale (/)
Bath v Northampton (/)
Exeter v London Irish (/)
Leicester v Worcester (/)
Saracens v Harlequins (/)
Wasps v Gloucester (/)

Sale v Bath (/)
Gloucester v Newcastle (/)
Harlequins v Wasps (/)
London Irish v Saracens (/)
Northampton v Leicester (/)
Worcester v Exeter (/)

Bath v Wasps (/)
Newcastle v Saracens (/)
Gloucester v Sale (/)
Harlequins v Leicester (/)
Exeter v Northampton (/)
Worcester v London Irish (/)

Leicester v Bath (/)
London Irish v Gloucester (/)
Northampton v Worcester (/)
Sale v Harlequins (/)
Saracens v Exeter (/)
Wasps v Newcastle (/)

================================================

So, now you can fill in the table points for each game, adjust the table as it currently stands to give your predicted finish:

Predicted table:

TeamPTSAdditionl pointsNew total
1Harlequins55
2Saracens49
3Northampton41
4Leicester40
5Exeter39
6Gloucester37
7Sale35
8London Irish34
9Bath30
10Worcester27
11Wasps23
12Newcastle17


Knock yer socks off!

Chief

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Post by Portnoy Wed 22 Feb 2012, 11:37 am

Of course (not surprisingly to anyone, I have to feel compelled to) as almost 55% of this season's Jeff will be chomped up during International Windows.

The Top four will be distinctly skewed. The top six certainly so and the relegation spot possibly so...

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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 22 Feb 2012, 12:24 pm

Here's my effort:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:OK, here's the full version:

Current table:

TeamPTS
1Harlequins55
2Saracens49
3Northampton41
4Leicester40
5Exeter39
6Gloucester37
7Sale35
8London Irish34
9Bath30
10Worcester27
11Wasps23
12Newcastle17
================================================

Remaining fixtures:


Sale v Wasps (5/0)
Worcester v Saracens (1/4)
Exeter v Bath (4/1)
Gloucester v Harlequins (4/1)
Leicester v Newcastle (4/1)
London Irish v Northampton (1/4)

Newcastle v Harlequins (0/4)
Exeter v Sale (4/1)
Bath v Worcester (4/1)
Wasps v London Irish (1/4)
Leicester v Gloucester (1/4)
Saracens v Northampton (4/1)

Sale v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Exeter (4/0)
Harlequins v Bath (4/0)
Northampton v Wasps (5/0)
Worcester v Newcastle (4/1)
London Irish v Leicester (1/4)

Newcastle v Sale (4/1)
Bath v Northampton (4/1)
Exeter v London Irish (4/1)
Leicester v Worcester (5/0)
Saracens v Harlequins (4/1)
Wasps v Gloucester (1/4)

Sale v Bath (4/1)
Gloucester v Newcastle (5/0)
Harlequins v Wasps (5/0)
London Irish v Saracens (1/4)
Northampton v Leicester (4/1)
Worcester v Exeter (1/4)

Bath v Wasps (4/1)
Newcastle v Saracens (0/5)
Gloucester v Sale (4/1)
Harlequins v Leicester (4/1)
Exeter v Northampton (1/4)
Worcester v London Irish (4/1)

Leicester v Bath (4/1)
London Irish v Gloucester (1/4)
Northampton v Worcester (5/0)
Sale v Harlequins (1/4)
Saracens v Exeter (4/0)
Wasps v Newcastle (4/1)

================================================

So, now you can fill in the table points for each game, adjust the table as it currently stands to give your predicted finish:

Predicted table:

TeamPTSAdditionl pointsNew total
1Harlequins552378
2Saracens492978
3Northampton412465
4Leicester402060
5Exeter391756
6Gloucester372966
7Sale351449
8London Irish341044
9Bath301545
10Worcester271136
11Wasps23730
12Newcastle17724


Knock yer socks off!

Chief

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Post by Portnoy Wed 22 Feb 2012, 12:33 pm

Table before 6Ns

Harlequins 13 11 0 2 320 219 +101 3 0 3 47
Saracens 13 10 1 2 278 208 +70 1 1 2 44
Northampton Saints 13 8 0 5 310 204 +106 2 2 4 36
Leicester Tigers 13 7 1 5 348 317 +31 3 3 6 36
London Irish 13 6 1 6 306 298 +8 2 5 7 33
Exeter Chiefs 13 6 0 7 242 252 -10 1 6 7 31
Sale Sharks 13 6 0 7 285 312 -27 1 5 6 30
Gloucester Rugby 13 5 1 7 275 254 +21 1 6 7 29
Worcester Warriors 13 5 1 7 175 220 -45 0 3 3 25
Bath Rugby 13 5 0 8 235 252 -17 0 4 4 24
London Wasps 13 4 0 9 202 286 -84 1 4 5 21
Newcastle Falcons 13 2 1 10 207 361 -154 0 2 2 12

Table without lost IW games:
Table as would stand since RWC (England) began
Team P W D L F A F-A TBP LBP BP Pts
Leicester 7 6 1 0 198 123 +55 3 0 3 29
Northampton 7 6 0 1 191 96 +85 2 1 3 27
Harlequins 7 5 0 2 131 102 +50 1 0 1 21
Saracens 7 5 1 1 125 113 +12 0 0 0 20
Worcester 7 3 1 3 93 95 -2 0 3 3 17
London Irish 7 3 1 3 121 140 -21 0 2 2 16
Exeter Chiefs 7 3 0 4 124 125 -1 0 4 4 16
Gloucester 7 2 1 4 149 129 +20 1 4 5 15
Sale Sharks 7 2 0 5 141 172 -29 0 3 3 11
Bath Rugby 7 2 0 5 108 121 -13 0 2 2 9
London Wasps 7 1 0 6 81 153 -72 1 3 4 8
Newcastle 7 1 1 5 108 199 -91 0 1 1 7


[Work in progress.]
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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 22 Feb 2012, 12:52 pm

So, Portnoy, back in the real world, rather than in your imaginary one, care to take a stab at the final placings?

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Post by Portnoy Wed 22 Feb 2012, 12:59 pm

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:So, Portnoy, back in the real world, rather than in your imaginary one, care to take a stab at the final placings?

I'll wait on that As.

But my bet is that the perversity of the Jeff schedule will just have to wait until the final table is resolved. Broken Record
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Post by Ozzy3213 Wed 22 Feb 2012, 7:00 pm

Current table:

TeamPTS
1Harlequins55
2Saracens49
3Northampton41
4Leicester40
5Exeter39
6Gloucester37
7Sale35
8London Irish34
9Bath30
10Worcester27
11Wasps23
12Newcastle17
================================================

Remaining fixtures:


Sale v Wasps (4/0)
Worcester v Saracens (4/1)
Exeter v Bath (4/1)
Gloucester v Harlequins (5/0)
Leicester v Newcastle (4/0)
London Irish v Northampton (4/1)

Newcastle v Harlequins (1/4)
Exeter v Sale (4/1)
Bath v Worcester (4/1)
Wasps v London Irish (1/4)
Leicester v Gloucester (4/1)
Saracens v Northampton (4/1)

Sale v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Exeter (4/0)
Harlequins v Bath (5/0)
Northampton v Wasps (5/0)
Worcester v Newcastle (4/1)
London Irish v Leicester (1/4)

Newcastle v Sale (4/1)
Bath v Northampton (1/4)
Exeter v London Irish (1/4)
Leicester v Worcester (4/0)
Saracens v Harlequins (4/1)
Wasps v Gloucester (1/4)

Sale v Bath (4/1)
Gloucester v Newcastle (5/0)
Harlequins v Wasps (5/0)
London Irish v Saracens (1/4)
Northampton v Leicester (4/1)
Worcester v Exeter (1/4)

Bath v Wasps (4/1)
Newcastle v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Sale (5/0)
Harlequins v Leicester (4/1)
Exeter v Northampton (4/1)
Worcester v London Irish (1/4)

Which at this point going into the final weekend leaves the table as follows

TeamPTS
1Harlequins74
2Saracens70
3Gloucester61
4Leicester58
5Northampton57
6Exeter56
7London Irish53
8Sale46
9Bath41
10Worcester38
11Wasps26
12Newcastle24

I include this table as I think where teams sit going into the final game can have a massive impact on the subsequent results. With Quins and Sarries guaranteed home semis they may rest a few. Gloucester, Leicester, Northampton, Exeter and Irish would all be fighting for a play off spot so would be going all guns blazing, with Sale, Bath and Worcester nothing to play for. That being the case I see the final weekend panning out like this...

Leicester v Bath (5/0)
London Irish v Gloucester (5/0) (We generally hammer Gloucester at home and they do the same to us at Kingsholm)
Northampton v Worcester (5/0)
Sale v Harlequins (1/4)
Saracens v Exeter (4/1)
Wasps v Newcastle (1/4)

================================================

So, a final table of:

TeamPTS
1Harlequins78
2Saracens74
3Leicester63
4Northampton62
5Gloucester61
6London Irish58
7Exeter57
8Sale47
9Bath41
10Worcester38
11Newcastle28
12Wasps27


So it's Quins v Saints and Sarries v Tigers in the play offs, and Wasps through the trap door into the Championship. Gloucester into the Heineken Cup, but I have a nagging suspicion that 6th place in the AP will miss out on a Heino place this year, as Bath will win the LV Cup and sneak in that way, and we are unlikely to get 7 places due to not wining a European competition this season.
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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 22 Feb 2012, 9:43 pm

Pete, you've got Irish down to beat both Exe and Wuss away from home? I can envisage one of those happening, but reckon you'd have to be lucky to get both - neither SP nor Sixways are comfortable places to travel for any but the top teams imo. Think you might be right about 6th not being enough this Time round for a Heino place, with Barf putting all their eggs in the LV= basket

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Post by Ozzy3213 Wed 22 Feb 2012, 10:07 pm

With Irish it is always difficult for me to predict, so rather than go with heart predictions I have gone with how results have historically gone for us against our opponents in the run in. I believe I am right in thinking that we are now the only team in the AP that the Chiefs have not beaten since promotion?

If I was to go solely on current form, then the Chiefs will beat us at Sandy Park, but there are twists and turns ahead I suspect, and the game is 6 weeks away, so plenty of time for a reversal in form! Wink
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Post by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Thu 23 Feb 2012, 8:26 am

Ozzy3213 wrote:With Irish it is always difficult for me to predict, so rather than go with heart predictions I have gone with how results have historically gone for us against our opponents in the run in. I believe I am right in thinking that we are now the only team in the AP that the Chiefs have not beaten since promotion?

If I was to go solely on current form, then the Chiefs will beat us at Sandy Park, but there are twists and turns ahead I suspect, and the game is 6 weeks away, so plenty of time for a reversal in form! Wink
You and Barf, Pete, that's right, but we'll start by putting that right this Saturday, I hope!! Chief

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