OWGR Week 27

Time for a new thread I guess

Here is what the OWGR should look like tomorrow when it is released

1 Adam Scott 9.160
2 Henrik Stenson 8.121
3 Bubba Watson 7.165
4 Matt Kuchar 6.924
5 Tiger Woods 6.705
6 Jason Day 6.664
7 Rory McIlroy 6.601
8 Justin Rose 6.538 ===> Winner QuickenLoans
9 Sergio Garcia 6.331
10 Jordan Spieth 5.923
11 Jim Furyk 5.475
12 Martin Kaymer 5.466
13 Phil Mickelson 5.214
14 Hideki Matsuyama 5.095
15 Dustin Johnson 4.942
16 Zach Johnson 4.876
17 Jimmy Walker 4.267
18 Steve Stricker 4.176
19 Luke Donald 4.043
20 Graeme McDowell 4.042
21 Jason Dufner 4.036
22 Victor Dubuisson 3.918
23 Thomas Bjorn 3.904
24 Charl Schwartzel 3.894
25 Keegan Bradley 3.838
26 Ian Poulter 3.830
27 Rickie Fowler 3.755
28 Miguel A Jimenez 3.633
29 Patrick Reed 3.621
30 Jamie Donaldson 3.484
31 Webb Simpson 3.436
32 Lee Westwood 3.415
33 Brandt Snedeker 3.398
34 Graham Delaet 3.238
35 Bill Haas 3.227
36 Kevin Streelman 3.092
37 Stephen Gallacher 3.085
38 Kevin Na 3.046
39 Thongchai Jaidee 3.001
40 Ryan Moore 2.924
41 Jonas Blixt 2.884
42 Hunter Mahan 2.778
43 Francesco Molinari 2.777
44 Joost Luiten 2.745
45 Chris Kirk 2.743
46 Harris English 2.707
47 Brendon Todd 2.691
48 Matt Every 2.659
49 Louis Oosthuizen 2.640
50 Gary Woodland 2.623
51 Matt Jones 2.584
52 Mikko Ilonen 2.552
53 Billy Horschel 2.536
54 John Senden 2.467
55 Russell Henley 2.380
56 Ernie Els 2.334
57 Ryan Palmer 2.266
58 Richard Sterne 2.232
59 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.211
60 Marc Leishman 2.197
61 Pablo Larrazabal 2.193
62 Kevin Stadler 2.186
63 J.B. Holmes 2.088
64 Charley Hoffman 2.079
65 Bernd Wiesberger 2.051
66 K.J. Choi 2.002
67 Koumei Oda 1.998
68 George Coetzee 1.995
69 Nick Watney 1.994
70 Matteo Manassero 1.909
71 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.906
72 Erik Compton 1.885
73 Brooks Koepka 1.875
74 Charles Howell-III 1.872
75 Shane Lowry 1.849
76 Chesson Hadley 1.848
77 Boo Weekley 1.836
78 Brendon de Jonge 1.831
79 Fredrik Jacobson 1.813
80 Ben Martin 1.802
81 Anirban Lahiri 1.776
82 Scott Stallings 1.742
83 Branden Grace 1.720
84 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.711
85 Chris Stroud 1.701
86 Paul Casey 1.685
87 Kim Hyung-sung 1.674
88 Tommy Fleetwood 1.641
89 Ross Fisher 1.620
90 Angel Cabrera 1.589
91 Chris Wood 1.568
92 David Hearn 1.542
93 Daniel Summerhays 1.539
94 Noh Seung-yul 1.522
95 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.516
96 Ben Crane 1.514
97 Russell Knox 1.514
98 Peter Hanson 1.510
99 Ryo Ishikawa 1.507
100 Will Mackenzie 1.505


101 Thomas Aiken 1.489
102 Brendan Steele   1.486
103 Danny Willett 1.483

112 Fabrizio Zanotti 1.408 ===> Winner of BMW

~270 Andrew Johnston 0.6691 ===> Winner Challenge Tour

~290 Greg Owen 0.616 ===> Winner Web-com Tour

   
GPB,
Have you got RCB accurately?
2nd this week in Germany.

Big weeks for Justin Rose and Top Five. For different reasons. Surprised. At both!

Thanks Kwini, Corrected it. The three word hyphenated names sometimes don't integrate well between databases.

RCB is one of my girlfriends crushes. I should know better than to shortchange him. Or maybe I did it on purpose.  

Perhaps it's just the name she fancies. My wife is in love with Rafa - just not that one!

My GF doesn't like the other Rafa at all. She says he is constantly going to the movies, picking his seat.

We are rooting for FED. And Eugenie Bouchard on the womens side. Please no Shreikapova!!

Some Attrition movement in the Top 10 for next week.

Woods is dropping to #7 as both Day and Rose will pass him.
Rory drops to #8 as Rose will pass him.

Looks like Jason Day has pulled out of Greenbrier, but I haven't seen any confirmation. Rotoworld has nothing on it.

PrinceDracula has Greenbrier at 46 Rating but that includes Day. I got Greenbrier at 42.

French Open is a 36 according to PD.

Bubba cannot get to #2 even if he wins Greenbrier.
Kaymer can climb to #10 if he wins the French Open.

How long until 9C drops out of the top 10? Can't be long.

Most likely not until after Hoylake at the earliest. His average will be approximately 6.34 going into Hoylake and there is quite a big gap between #10 and #11.

If Tiger whiffies at Hoylake, his OWGR average will be ~6.16 and I would guess that he would be #10

Rory and Sergio should definitely be ahead of him at that time, and probably Spieth.

Someone from outside the top 10 is going to have to make a BIG move for Woods to fall out of the Top 10 after Hoylake because of the gap between #10 and #11.

Cheers, GPB, given the amount of points he's "defending" after his good year last year, will he drop like a stone on current form by year end?

Current form?!

a.k.a "stinking the place out".

Tiger is losing 7.3 pts per week from attrition which will go down 6.5 pts per week after Hoylake.

As of today, this is how many points #10-#25 are behind Tiger and what tournaments I expect them to play before Hoylake

10 Jordan Spieth … 34.9 (John Deere)
11 Jim Furyk … 57.8 (none?)
12 Martin Kaymer … 64.2 (French Open)
13 Phil Mickelson … 73.1 (Scottish)
14 Hideki Matsuyama … 66.0 (none?)
15 Dustin Johnson … 89.9 (none?)
16 Zach Johnson … 95.1 (John Deere)
17 Jimmy Walker … 126.8 (Greenbrier, Scottish)
18 Steve Stricker … 101.2 (Greenbrier, John Deere)
19 Luke Donald … 133.1 (Scottish)
20 Graeme McDowell … 127.8 (French, Scottish)
21 Jason Dufner … 132.1 (none?)
22 Victor Dubuisson … 110.4 (French, Scottish)
23 Thomas Bjorn … 139.5 (French, Scottish)
24 Charl Schwartzel … 146.2 (none?)
25 Keegan Bradley … 147.3 (Greenbrier)

(These players are also losing points from attrition although not as many.)

Greenbrier is going to be worth 42 points to winner.
French Open is going to be worth 36 points to winner.
Scottish is probably going to be in the 54-56 pt range.
John Deere is probably going to in the 34-36 pt range.

Apparently a reoccurrence of his thumb injury is the reason for Jason Day's WD according to a Rotoworld post.

Correction to post above.

Hideki Matsuyama is back in Japan for a tournament this week (along with Ishikawa). The Nagashima Shigeo INVITATIONAL SEGA SAMMY Cup.

No other golfers from the PGAT (or EuroT) are playing that I kind see. The tournament looks like it might be OWGR 18, Unsubsidized!!

Disappointing field for Open de France. Used to be around 44-46 points. Has the power gone off Alstom?

Open de France was rated 44-50-40-46-44 from 2009 to 2013.

Smalrus can get as high as #41 should he Open de France.
Riu will get inside the top 200 should he Open de France.
Jaidee ~29th

If they Win Greenbrier

Billy Hurley ~83rd
Kevin Chappell ~58th
Chris Stroud ~54th
Troy Matteson ~Top 200
Stricker ~14th
Kirk ~30th

Koumei Oda is leading the Japan tournament going into final round. If he wins, he crashes top 60 easily. Ryo Ishikawa is solo 3rd he could get about ~73rd if he wins. Hideki is a longshot to win. He is 7 shots back and T23rd.
=================

The top 9 will be (no matter what happens tomorrow)

1. Scott
2. Stenson
3. Bubba
4. Kuch
5. Day
6. Rose
7. Tiger
8. Rory
9. Sergio

Kaymer can only get to #10 if he wins. But passes Furyk with a solo 8th or better.

McDowell moves up to #17...But Stricker has chance to stay ahead of GMac by finishing solo 2nd or better.

Preliminary ratings for Scottish Open is OWGR 52 and John Deere is 34.

Three top 20 players at John Deere (Spieth, Zach, Stricker), and little other venison on the bone.

If Rose or Rory can do the Mickelson Double, they could be #1 after Hoylake. Both can become #3 by winning Scottish.

Spieth can get as high as #5 by winning the Deere. and Mickelson can get to #9 by winning at Royal Aberdeen.

Olympics:
Something else to keeep track of:

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/2016-olympic-golf-qualifying-begins-british-week/

Eeh isn't Jimmy Wallker exempt into the Open? On the ET leaderboard the Claret Jug isn't displayed next to his name?

Eeh indeed.
A few claret jugs missing on that leaderboard, not just Jimmy Walker.

Claret jugs (reminds me of a sunburnt friend of mine) restored.

owgr site reckons the JDC is still 34 pts to the winner - must be very borderline . . . . . .

52 for Scottish and 34 points for JDC is confirmed.

Rory and Rosy can get to #3 if they win

Spieth can get to #5.

For the SuperRealist "Woods out of Top 10" Watch.

Woods can fall to as low as #9 this week.

Rosy needs to finish 30th or better to remain ahead of Woods
Rory needs to finish solo 8th or better to pass Woods
Spieth needs to win to pass Woods.

Sergio, Furyk, Kaymer Mickelson, Matsuyama (Solo 2nd at Hoylake), Johnson (two solo seconds) are the only other players that can pass Woods without winning this week or next week. (Assuming Woods whiffies at Hoylake)

Rose certainly did his bit. #3.
Rory will have to wait until Hoylake to pass Tiger.

As I posted in the Tournament thread:

Gallacher earns almost 12 OWGR points which will pass GMac and Jimenez (who spit the bit on the back 9) in the Ryder Cup standings.

Poulter has a 1.99 pt lead on Gallacher to be the first player outside the top 9.

==============

Stenson, Rose, Bubba, Kuchar and J-Day will have chance to get to #1 after Hoylake. Stenson can finish 2nd and overtake Scott. The rest of them have to win...and get some help from Scott.

Woods can get close with a win...but not quite enough even if Scott whiffies.

Here are the #1 scenarios

Stenson Win and Adam finish 4th or worse, or Stenson finish 2nd and Scott finish 18th or worse

Rose Win and Scott 7th or worse.

Bubba Win and Scott 15th or worse

Kuchar: No Chance (previous projections were wrong)

Day: Win and Scott 22nd or worse and Stenson T2nd or worse

Woods and the rest have no chance for the #1 spot.

Other Best case scenarios for top players:

Kuchar, Woods, Sergio and Spieth can get to #2
Furyk, Kaymer can get to #3
Mickelson, Zach, and Hideki can get to #4

anyone down to #22 (Keegan) can inside the Top 10 with a win

Thanks GPB, although one player is missing among your scenarios.... 

He could go to #2 with a win as far as I can see.

Who would that be?

Davie wrote:Who would that be?

  

Oops, I did forget Rory didn't I. Unintentional I assure you.

Rory will get to #2...If he wins...and Stenson finishes 6th or worse and Rose finishes worse than 2nd.

Looks certain that Woods will fall to #9 as Rory and Sergio will pass him.

Spieth and Furyk have an outside of both passing Woods. Spieth needs a solo 4th and Furyk a T2nd (AT LEAST)

There is a big gap between 9th and 10th...and even bigger gap between 10th and 11th