Predictions for NZ Argentina

2 solid performances from Argentina. One at least should've been a win with such a big lead. There's no doubt Argentina arrives in NZ in a better frame of mind than last year.

The usual rout in SA didn't eventuate. They showed in dry conditions they could do damage. Their scrum looks MASSIVE! They humbled a proud scrumming team so do you think they'll annihilate NZ at scrum time early on?

Will Argentina have enough in the tank for the last quarter and will they take the right options under pressure? These are the key points for me. They will look to disrupt NZ ball and slow NZ recycling. Eden Park will serve as a warning for them if they don't.

Looking forward to this match and is a great test of our set piece.
How do you think it will go?

Reckon the Pumas will definitely win the scrum battle. Retallick is a monster and is fantastic in tandem with Whitelock but I don't think he and the rest of the tight five have the technique yet to handle a Puma scrum that will keep the ball at the 8's feet and suck out penalty after penalty. Having said that Crockett is extremely aggressive and (once again, if the ref likes him) his approach may be needed to quell the Puma fire. No problems with the lineout, and the rolling maul will be a great weapon to suck in numbers as if Argentina match up in numbers their gain line is notoriously hard to crack. Set piece moves I think are huge-look for ball towards the back of the lineout as the scrum might not provide the poatform to launch from-and since they are such a good defensive team taking chances from first phase (or the same phase as from which breaks come from) will be very important.

I can see the Pumas leading at halftime, NZ start slowly more often than not which is worrying. They've let in early tries against Argentina often and have had to rely on indiscipline to get in front of the scoreboard in the first half. There'll be a couple of moments of madness from the Argies in the second half I think-it is a disturbing trend for them-and I do expect them to tire.

If NZ get front foot ball in the first half it's all over and bonus points will be the order of the day. Noone can live with the pace of the game when NZ hit top gear. But Argentina have a couple of great weapons now-Montero the winger looks really good and Creevy is really destructive and is a great scrummaging hooker from the looks of things. Hernandez is mercurial so we'll see about him but the NZ back three have to be on top of their positioning. Landajo is getting better and better as is Sanchez. Some great talent but they get carried away with the machismo and keep it in the forwards too often when the backs are becoming good enough to exploit an advantage.

NZ by ten. Weather permitting. If NZ get front foot ball in the first half NZ by 25.

Weather says it will be wet so will bode well for the S Americans. Fortunately I have a great seat in the Graeme Lowe Stand:)

Not sure the Argentinians have it in them they are 12th in the IRB ranking which to me is about right although 10th is more realistic.

Not worth trying to up the opposition it will be a victory by 15+ for the AB's.

Argentina will give them a very good game I think. But the depth of the All Blacks bench will be telling in the last quarter as they pull away.

It'll be uncomfortable on the pitch at times for the All Blacks but ultimately pretty comfortable on the scoreboard. Try bonus point likely.

Depends Notch-the conditions will probably slow the game down and negate the NZ fitness advantage. I can see a real threat to NZ in conditions like Napier has currently.

NZ trained in the rain yesterday. I'm looking forward to seeing Aaron Smith in wet conditions. He seems a different player in dry conditions but Argentina and rainy conditions isn't ideal but it's very good preparation.

Nonu likely to start and would be surprised if Dagg isn`t back at 15,myself would kick
for territory.That is use the touchline and back your lineout and play ball in hand as
much as possible.
Strict discipline 2 yellows in this one could be fatal,keep starting front row on the full
80 if possible especially Coles.
Minimize the number of scrums and if wet Ref may allow a little licence there both
sides will try to keep it up.

I am interested to see whether Argentina and in specific Ayerza gets away with the same technique against NZ as us.

Apart from that I am stuck between whether a conversion or penalty will be missed so I am going for NZ by 14.5

emack2 wrote:Nonu likely to start and would be surprised if Dagg isn`t back at 15,myself would kick
for territory.That is use the touchline and back your lineout and play ball in hand as
much as possible.
Strict discipline 2 yellows in this one could be fatal,keep  starting front row on the full
80 if possible especially Coles.
Minimize the number of scrums and if wet Ref may allow a little licence there both
sides will try to keep it up.

They're young men Alan. They won't have any trouble keeping it up.

Argentina will be competitive but over 160 minutes I expect NZ to record two comfortable wins. I think NZ need to tighten up a bit and be better disciplined - if they do, eventually frustration will open up the Pumas.

Cruden out.

Will be good to see what Barrett can do from the start against a team that'll be asking questions. He always seems to be even keeled so he should handle it ok.

What's up with Cruds, ebop?

You've probably already seen by now Kia but it's a chest injury. Always wonder about these things. I'm no conspiracy theorist but maybe it's kind of a good game for Barrett to start. Hope he plays well as I've warmed to him. Especially after his sub try scoring feats last year.

http://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/10456941/Cruden-ruled-out-of-Argentina-test-with-injury

Cheers mate. Hadn't seen that. Who will be reserve fly half?

Colin Slade could start actually he at least has started a test tier1 level DCis expected to be fit
for Argentina 2.

So has Barrett. He has 2 starts from his 21 tests. He deserves this chance to start. Slade or Taylor could cover. Or Anscombe.

15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Joe Moody, 19 Jeremy Thrush, 20 Sam Cane, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Malakai Fekitoa.

Slade is on the bench and is cover for fullback, wing and 10 much like Barrett. Dagg's boot will be very useful in the wet. Wouldn't have minded seeing TK on the bench for his defensive work just in case it's close.

Ha Kia, you are quick dude! Was just hitting send and you snuck in. Happy with that team as Jane has been a bit off so far. I'm sure I heard Coles was not going to be playing so surprised to see him there, glad he is though.

I think it was Mark Hinton who said Ben Smith is better suited on the wing because the ABs are able to give him space where he can finish opportunties off. He did nothing wrong at fullback but I think Dagg Savea Smith is a better back three than Smith Savea and Jane at this point in time.

See Richard Kahui is keen to come back to the Chiefs with SBW next year. If he survived that, at only 29, he would be a welcome wing / centre addition to the RWC squad.

Team more or less as expected was the Tamifuna the same who was cited for the Ref
incident.? Cruden would seem likely to be fit to face the Boks.

Tameifuna is awaiting the hearing result. Naughty fatty. It's interesting that Skelton gets selected (albeit dropped this week) and Tameifuna gets told he needs to lose weight to get anywhere near the team. Excess weight doesn't fit with this NZ squad. They'll be tested for the first 60 though with this physically incredible Pumas pack.

Cruden's injury isn't serious but they didn't want to risk it turning into a long-term injury. It's good to have these options but thankfully Nonu is back with Crotty out.

This will be a big weekend for all those down in the Bay, To have the Ranfurly Shield back in town, then a Tier 1 test played in town with their favourite All Black Israel Dagg back at full back.

aucklandlaurie wrote:
This will be a big weekend for all those down in the Bay, To have the Ranfurly Shield back in town, then a Tier 1 test played in town with their favourite All Black Israel Dagg back at full back.

Yep...definitely the place to be if you had tickets to both games...must be buzzing there at the moment.

This is interesting about Aaron Smith and the more direct line he takes between breakdowns than what is typical. Analysis from Justin Marshall, he'd probably know what he's talking about.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11319471

Taylorman wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote:
This will be a big weekend for all those down in the Bay, To have the Ranfurly Shield back in town, then a Tier 1 test played in town with their favourite All Black Israel Dagg back at full back.

Yep...definitely the place to be if you had tickets to both games...must be buzzing there at the moment.

Yup really buzzing. The boys bought me many a beer tonight after the Mighty Taniwha beat the Bay in the ITM Cup after the 80 mins, pure bliss. Next amazing thing was actually sitting with Sir Colin Meads for a little drink and a 'selfie'. The promise of another drink with him after the game in the same drinking hole. An amazing night and I imagine another one tomorrow here in Napier.

Difficult conditions. Argentina will be disappointed on the one hand by letting that last try but on the other hand they'll be encouraged by the fact they're only down by 7. Worrying to see Whitelock go off. The Argentinian scrum has been very good but I've been pleased with the NZ scrum in general.

Was that last try offside from NZ? Did it come of a foot of the 8 and the 9 picked it up who was in front of him?

Not 100% as i didn't see the replay.

Don't think so but happened really quickly so maybe. Not a bad game so far considering the conditions.

No it was fine, Aaron Smith was behind.

Biltong wrote:No it was fine, Aaron Smith was behind.

ah cool, thanks

Looks so easy for NZ sometimes

A crucial bonus point must be the target now. 4 tries in these conditions would be a great effort.

Disgusting decision

robbed....

Unbelievable!! Senatore robbed of a try against the All Blacks.

Come on ref!

Horrific decision.

Brainfart from the ref. Argentina cruelly let down there as they were back in the game with that try.

worst refereeing decision I have seen for years.

Argentina should be furious, its cost them the try and momentum they desperately need

Just immense scrumming power. I wonder how much draining effect there is on the Puma forwards as they really aren't in any hurry to clear their scrums. They want to hurt the opposition but I wonder if it ends up hurting them in the last quarter.

Barrett was immense ball in hand but really looks like he needs another kicker to help him with the points...

Why wasn't that a penalty to Arg? I don't think I have ever seen ABs penalised for diving over the top.

I wonder what the referee could have done if the TMO had stepped in to tell him the charge down was not a knock-on?

He blew his whistle before the ball was touched down, so I don't know if he could have awarded a try even if recognized his mistake. Then again, the Argentinian was in the clear, so the whistle didn't have a material effect on what the New Zealand players were able to do.

The Saint wrote:Why wasn't that a penalty to Arg? I don't think I have ever seen ABs penalised for diving over the top.

i agree

Barrett was in great kicking form for the Hurricanes. NZ have left points out there though tonight for sure and have kept Argentina in with a sniff.

Argentina can count themselves extremely unlucky these today, there have been a few really ropy decisions against them!

There have been at least 4/5 occasions when AB players have flown in off their feet at rucks and totally wiped players out, then Argentina get pinged for a shoulder to shoulder contact!

The decision re the 'knock on', well thats a game changer! 20 mins to go, 5 point ball game and its all to play for, instead they are totally deflated, and NZ will definately get another try or 2 now to make it look good!

NZ scrum solid at the right time. All important bonus point.

Until these crazy stupid decisions start going both ways lower tier nations stand no chance, the top 4/5 nations seem to always benefit from these mistakes.

I amstarting to think it's a cartel that NZ own...

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:NZ scrum solid at the right time. All important bonus point.

Is the right time not all meant to be all the time?

New Zealand have been the more accomplished team, so I'm not sure Argentina can feel that wronged tonight. If I was them, I might be more upset about allowing that try on the stroke of half time.

Mind you, it would have made for a very interesting last quarter if Argentina had been given that try and the score had gone to 13-18.

It's a natural confirmation bias. You expect the best players and teams to be able to legally do things the less good sides can't and so you give them the benefit of the doubt when you aren't sure. Only counter is to actively try and avoid it