Just a thought, will Argentina beat Oz?

I have a feeling.......

http://www.espn.co.uk/the-rugby-championship-2014/rugby/match/207967.html

Having witnessed the poorest Ozy tri/RC display ever last weekend, and by comparrison Argentina playing with some potential....well I think there really is a chance that this could be the day it happens?

I wrote a preview.

Here it is.

On Saturday evening 8 PM Australia will host Argentina at Skilled Park on the Gold Coast.
The two most improved sides of the 2014 campaign will meet each other for the 5th time in the Rugby Championship. Thus far the record reads Australia 4 Argentina 0.

It looks convincing enough until you look at recent results. Australia escaped with a one point win over Argentina in Perth last year, Argentina managed to hold the All Blacks for the first 39 minutes last week and had two close losses to an out of form South Africa.

Ewen McKenzie has made some changes. Tatafu Polota-Nau comes into the starting line up and James Hanson moves to the bench. Ben McCalman replaces Wycliff Palu who is out with concussion and Adam Ashley Cooper is replaced by Peter Betham due to a neck injury sustained against South Africa last week.

From a selection point of view, I think the back row seems more balanced, however I believe Scott Fardy is perhaps lucky not to be replaced by Scott Higginbotham.

James Horwill might feel aggrieved for not making the starting XV and Rob Simmons will have hopefully worked on his discipline after giving away 4 penalties last weekend.

The suspension of Tomas Lavanini, Argentina’s most prolific line out winner for the campaign means he is replaced by Matias Alemanno. This could make a significant impat on the Argentinian scrum and contact area as Lavanini is a much bigger and more physical player than Alemanno, outweighing his compatriot by 15kg as well as being taller.

The only other changes in the Argentinian team is that both wings are replaced. Horacio Agulla and Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino are axed in favour of Juan Imhoff and Manuel Montero.

Argentina has shown to be the most physical pack in the Championship this season, man handling the Springboks in both their matches and being the most dominant pack in the New Zealand clash until the front rows were replaced late in the second half.

Although Argentina has shown enterprise with ball in hand the struggled to break down the New Zealand defences and it could be a similar situation as Australia showed great determination in defence against South Africa who spend a good portion of time attacking the Australian line during the second half of their clash last week.


It must be said though that the South Africa attack was rather predictable and Argentina has shown some deft skills on attack this year.

Undoubtedly Australia is going to struggle in the scrums, I have seen little that will convince me otherwise. It is therefor imperative for them to use the advantage applied by the referee on opposition mistake to the fullest.

They would want to avoid as many scrums as possible as Argentina will use their superior scrum to their advantage, be it to gain scrum penalties or simply to demoralise the Australian pack.

Any scrums on Australian ball must be cleared as quickly as possible as Argentina’s second shove could be detrimental to clean ball.

The line outs should be more of a contest with Tomas Lavanini suspended and there is no Victor Matfield to contend with.

Argentina will flood the breakdowns, Ben McMalman, Hooper and Fardy will need to work as a unit to negate the momentum of Argentina in the contact areas and Nick Phipps will have to dance smartly around the rucks.

There is no doubting the danger of the Australian backline, but all will be for nought if their forwards struggle to gain parity.

Argentina won’t lack endeavour out wide, hopefully for them the inclusion of Imhoff and Montero will provide them with more pace and guile out wide.

Australia will benefit from dry weather, even against the Dire Springboks they struggled with territory last week and Argentina has shown Nicholas Sanchez is rather adept at playing territory, wet conditions will undoubtedly favour Argentina.

One issue is not clear yet. In recent seasons this is the time when Argentina starts to fade, whether due to fatigue or simply the mental fatigue and disappointment of not being to gain any results halfway through the tournament.

On face value this looks to be a more determined, mentally stronger team and results could have gone to Argentina in Salta where a last ditch 20 minutes from South Africa denied them their first win in the tournament.

Expect an uncompromising contact area, expect the ball to be thrown about and lots of running meters, this could be a high scoring game as both teams will be desperate for a strong performance for different reasons, but ultimately this should be an entertaining game.

My tip: Australia to hold out Argentina by more than a score.

I really hope so, but I feel like Argentina just aren't strong enough in the final 10-15 minutes to win big test matches. Thats where the big beasts of SANZAR spring their benches and go up a gear while Argentina tend to have exerted everything they have in just getting into a winning position or staying with them by then. They just aren't as capable of producing real 80-minute performances as the other teams.

But I would be delighted if Argentina do win. Absolutely delighted for them. Nothing against the Wallabies, I feel this way with every game Argentina play in the Championship. When they bag that first win, there is going to be a massive party. It'll be a big day in the history of rugby in Argentina.

Oz do appear to be suffering an injury induced challenge to the depth of their squad, plus they're still struggling in their selection with Howill and Beale on the bench.

Opposed to this I've really been impressed with Argentina who have played with confidence and guile.

Have Argentina really improved or are SA and Aus slipping somewhat? NZ didn't play great last weekend but still beat them pretty easily.

Argentina joined the SH tournament too late and should have done it years ago when they were in on the up. If Aus and SA get their houses in order Argentina will struggle to get close year on year.

I think Aus will win at a canter.

Argentina could beat them but they need their attack to click. They're playing a fast pace game and very physical up front, which is part of the reason they tire near the end. The backs are a bit hit and miss. They're just lacking a bit of class in the backs IMO. Thats not to say they're not dangerous. They've some quality mixed with average.

Cyril wrote:Have Argentina really improved or are SA and Aus slipping somewhat? NZ didn't play great last weekend but still beat them pretty easily.

Argentina joined the SH tournament too late and should have done it years ago when they were in on the up. If Aus and SA get their houses in order Argentina will struggle to get close year on year.

I think Aus will win at a canter.

Disagree. They have a very young test side now that is growing up with this kind of fixture as the norm, taking a scalp of the Boks and Aussies as a realistic goal and a result of joining the Tri-Nations they are going to get a professional side into Super Rugby. That and The Rugby Championship offers the perfect incentive for a number of their elite players to actually stay in Argentina. The TV money from being apart of The Rugby Championship and Super Rugby will be reinvested in Argentinean rugby, in talent identification programs, coaches and that ability to keep test stars in Argentina will allow the sport to rise in profile and hopefully inspire a new generation.

They want to field basically a shadow test side in Super Rugby. Once they do that they'll be in a much stronger position, as they won't have guys playing a long, brutal season in the NH and then flying in for The Rugby Championship. They will still struggle to break out of the bottom position for a good while, but so do Italy and Scotland in the NH and no-one says they'd be stronger if they were cast out into the rugby wilderness.

It was a generation that peaked with the 2007 RWC that showed that Argentina can compete with the top nations but even though that generation had generally run their race by the time they joined up, they can genuinely aspire to producing a new generation of players that is even better again.

The Pumas will eventually win in the RC and when at full strength are formidable at RWC
time too.

IF they decide to use there likely Scrum domination to produce quick ball for there backs
the 10/12 combo plus the new wings could cause a lot of trouble.

Also the Pumas under the pseudonym the Jaguars in 1980 and 82 played 3 tests versus
a very strong Bok side,won or drew all there Provincial Matches and in 82 beat the Boks.

The Jaguars was the Argentina squad plus 1 player each from Uruguay,Paraguay,Chile
and Brazil.Argentina only squad played in the tests of 82,and all but one player in 80.

Top scorer on each tour was the Legendary Hugo Porta and the squad included Topol
Rodriguez[prop] stalwarts later for Italy.

I think Aus will win, no doubt in my mind.

last year I thought Argentina would get a result against Australia at home after a close game in OZ but they got trashed. If they play under dry weather I feel the same might happen as they have diifculties with pacy teams ... a bit like france mind.

To date in the RC, the dry games have seen Argentina's opponents outscore them with tries. Game 2 in the first year was the exception to this rule but only in so far as the end result. Like game 2 this year against SA, Argentina were leading and faded badly in the last quarter.

When they play in the wet, their spoiling game comes to the fore. They still fade with the bench changes but at least they're still in the hunt provided the ref doesn't make up new rulings. In a way they are a mini-SA. Their best performances have been when their attack is balanced: using the set piece as an attacking platform but using that ball creatively (little chip overs, good offloads and continuing phases looking for open spaces). They may well have lost narrowly with the tight matches but they do themselves no favours with creating very few opportunities on attack.

The problem with Argentina, in a way like SA, France or Italy, is that they tend to resort to a default setting and it all becomes highly predictable. They have a powerful pack and that can often be a curse than a blessing. Take the NZ game last week. Instead of hooking the ball they waited for the second shove to get the ball back. That backfired at the end of the first half but above all it served no purpose other than to waste energy. If it's close to the line, then by all means go for the shove. If it's in the middle of the field, stable ball to attack from is all that's required and use your number 8 to attack the opposite 9 and make use of the scrum advantage. Showing your immense power should be a means to an end rather than an end to a means.

On the other hand, Australia are a team who show that not having a powerful pack is the be-end-and-end-all. They nullify their weaknesses as much as possible and play to their strengths. If Australia knew they faded badly in the last quarter they would try to amass points early in the game and bring on changes that could protect a lead with good defenders. Argentina need to be smarter about what their plan is. As SA have found out, professionalism has levelled the playing field somewhat. You can't squeeze the life out of opponents to the extent you could in days gone past. You need balance and an ability to put pressure on your opponents by scoring regularly and preferably tries. If your focus is on negating your opponent's strengths, it means you are not focused on your own strengths.

I've expected Australia to be beaten by quite a few teams over the last few years, but they've pulled through on so many occasions, I no longer know what to think.

Argentina are still fragile enough mentality that a couple of well executed Wallaby tries through the backs will have them doubting they have the class to win.

If, instead, they can stay in touch with 10 to go, then they'll stand a fair chance of getting a result out of one of those situations eventually.

So here we go. I've not run the rule over these sides in great detail, however I still think the injuries and selections are going to hurt Oz.

Crowd looks very poor....15K ish?

Gold Coast is not a rugby stronghold. The ARU are definitely worried about the poor home crowds. They don't get any money from the gate when they go north and this'll hurt them financially if it continues.

Argentina are definitely up for this game. Hooper catches the eye in the loose but his ruck work and tackling are not great. Argentina need to build a lead as the final quarter is their undoing.

What is happening to the Pumas scrum?! Wet conditions should be favouring Argentina but you just have to tip your hat at the Wallabies for defying predictions. That said, they butchered a try opportunity there.

Argentinas ball security isn't good enough, too many soft penalties being given away and the Aussies, to be fair to them, have done their homework on the Argentine scrum and are nullifying it very well.

Feel like Argentina are a bit lucky to only be four behind but the Aussies are really not clinical enough.

It seems Argentina always play Australia too late. If they'd gone to Australia before NZ, you might have fancied their chances. They have two games against SA, one against NZ and then they look out of puff by that fourth match. Those three games obviously take a lot out of them.

Credit though to Australia who are so good at nullifying their weaknesses and playing to their strengths. Argentina need their players playing in the SH and peaking at the right time of year. It shows in how they fade as the RC progresses.

Maybe they need a team in the 'Super' competition? Otherwise I think it’s going to be difficult for them to progress.

For all the advantage Argentina must attain from annually playing the 1,2,3 team's, as you say, and I imagine, it must be negated by their inability to peak when basically playing 11 months a year.

omg!!! 29-25 conv to come

Argy just butchered a try 5m's out from the post!!!!!

Can't believe Sanchez didn't give that to Imhoff. If he just gave that pass its 32-32 and a try bonus point for Argentina.

Argentina leave with a losing bonus point, and they should have left with the draw and the try bonus point. That Sanchez break would have tied up the game if it had been finished off.

3 losing bonus points out of 4 games for Argentina. This is not a team that is a million miles away from knocking one of the big boys over but just not accurate enough to do that...

Shame. Was watching the Spanish language broadcast and they were gutted. Was pulling for the Argies because they are coming so close. Tough was to end it with that free kick call. This is a good team. That left wing can be real good.

Absolute terrible decision from Arg to go for a scrum at the end when they had the Aus defense at sixes and sevens, scrum is a way too random part of the game.

VinceWLB wrote:Absolute terrible decision from Arg to go for a scrum at the end when they had the Aus defense at sixes and sevens, scrum is a way too random part of the game.

I agree. Just tap the penalty with all the big boys running straight and low. Would put the same pressure straight up.

Game over Ozy win 32-25.....finished with an Argy early push 5m's out on a scrum option penalty.

Great come back from Argentina.

Not the greatest game to watch, one for the purest as they say.

Local issues may surround the small crowd and maybe the NRL end of season game influenced the attendence though I doubt that. Union in Oz must keep on keeping on -  a little Churchillian but that has to be the matra.

For all that it must have been fantastic for the Lions to tour Oz last year, I am adament that a 4 yearly southern nations (16 teams) competition is the future and will offer far more development opportunities.

Ozy must be very frustrated with their progress given the positives that are in and around the Australian game.

A lot of injuries in today's games.....I think more in this game but also a number earlier between AB/RSA.

By comparison I think the earlier game was a level above in quality, skills and execution terms.

Here's the remaining RC fixtures - Surely Argentina must win that last fixture against Ozy at home?

I'll wager they do!

http://www.espn.co.uk/the-rugby-championship-2014/rugby/series/207941.html?template=fixtures

And actually Australia also have the extra money spinner against the AB's in Brisbane on the 18th October. If they lose all three of these games then I can see things becoming very dicey for them all round, players coaches WC group of death chances - the lot.

How does that make their chances in the group of death dicey. Firstly you're assuming a lot with the remaining games, notably against Argentina. Every time so far (5 matches), many people tend to say Argentina will win. Well they haven't so far and the other matches you mention are sides ranked higher than Australia. I'd have thought the November matches will have more bearing on next year's pool of death: Australia play Wales and England as well as Ireland and France. Let's see the results for those matches. The RC won't have any bearing on the crunch games for next year.

As an english supporter you may think I'm biased however as much as it is possible I am trying to make an objective observation - I have no particular axe to gring with Oz as much as any one else...preamble over, I think we're actually making a similar argument though from different points along the time line. However I do think Argentina will beat Ozy at home and I do think that the cumulative effect of losing in South Africa, then Argentina and then at home to the All Blacks will certainly effect the confidence of the Wallabies and will therefore impact upon their autumn performances which intern will largely determine the landscape prior to the group of death.

If this pan's out as I think it certainly could, then things will definitely be dicey for the Wallabies.

kingelderfield wrote:Here's the remaining RC fixtures - Surely Argentina must win that last fixture against Ozy at home?

I'll wager they do!

http://www.espn.co.uk/the-rugby-championship-2014/rugby/series/207941.html?template=fixtures

And actually Australia also have the extra money spinner against the AB's in Brisbane on the 18th October. If they lose all three of these games then I can see things becoming very dicey for them all round, players coaches WC group of death chances - the lot.

I watched through beer goggled eyes - nothing to do with the rugby - so don't have an entirely clear recolection.

So congratualtions to the Pumas and concern for Ozy.......that game against the AB's will be all the more important now.

I hope you really did wager King. Nice little return, probably!

[quote="Notch"]I hope you really did wager King. Nice little return, probably![/quote

Sadley thats a negitive.

However if Young names the A team this weekend then I'll have to back Wasps over Bath.