Can Berdych finally capitalise ? (Ans: Clearly not)

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Obviously I am annoyed that Nadal lost, but happy with his tournament on the whole. Reaching the QF was decent in the circumstances (in terms of his match fitness, of course I recognise his draw upto the QF was quite favourable).

However if I could choose for Nadal to lose to anyone, it would be my second favourite player. As I said on the match thread, it's very rare for me that my second favourite player beats Nadal; so this is a first.
And talking of Berdych, can he now finally capitalise ? He's played so well this tournament, he was clinical in taking advantage of Rafa in the QF, and has not yet dropped a set. This is genuinely the best I've seen him play since Wimbledon 2010.
However on the other hand he does have the habit of reaching the latter stages of tournaments and mucking up. He's 2 matches away now, but if past history for Berdych is taken into account... that is a long way to go.

Calder106 wrote:With you on that Socal. Think Murray cannot afford to play passive and continually try to out rally Berdych. If he does that he will lose. It lets Berdych to get into a rhythm and hit huge shots which then allow him to dominate without having to move around a lot.

Key for Murray is not letting Berdy sit there on the baseline in the middle of the court and bash away, if he does that he loses.

Agreed socal, up the line shot is key. I would also say a lot of it is pyschological, Djokovic bossed the match up from very early on and that probably played on Berdych's mind going forward. With Murray, he has always found a way to compete and beat him since they started playing and he probably has more confidence as a result.

You are right though, if you let Berdych get comfortable on the baseline, he is so powerful and will punish you.

On a seperate note, 23 consecutive grand slam quarter finals or better at grand slams. Really impressive stat ! 16 of those semi finals or better too

I think, correct me if I'm wrong, Djokovic has now reached more grand slam semis than Nadal. Is it 25 to 23? That's an incredible testimony to his consistency given that he is a year younger than Nadal.

He has a way to go before reaching Fed or Connors but he is I believe #4 on the list of most consecutive grandslam quarters. And I do believe emancipator that he has more slam semis than Nadal. It is now six years Novak hasn't reached a slam quarterfinal.

That is the issue with Murray in that it seems he plays very similarly to Djokovic so why should Djoko own Berdy and Murray struggle. But it is the propensity of Djokovic's to go up the line that is the big difference in this matchup. When you go up the line against a big man like Berdy regularly you force him wide plus I think Novak's short angled forehand is better as well. Berdych pulled wide is a much less dangerous player.

Murray's thoughts ahead of the match:

http://www.andymurray.com/feature/andys-latest-australian-open-column/

Socal - agree that Novak's FHDTL is a bit factor why he has an easier time vs Berdych than Andy does. Plus a more solid second serve of course.

I think it must be a little bit mental too though. I mean, Murray is far better on paper. He's way better all round. And it's utterly insane to have a better win % against Federer than Berdych! The HC head to head is 3-3, which is also surprising. All points to a very close match. 2 good semi finals on the cards actually, with 4 players in really good form.

Danny, I have said this elsewhere, in that some players match up better against some players than others. Murray has struggled against Berdych whilst Novak hasn't, Federer has had tough matches against Tsonga whilst Murray copes with him far better, Nadal has the distinct advantage over Federer but Novak does far better against Rafa. I could go on but what I am getting at is that some players have a style and strengths that can be very effective against certain type players but it doesn't necessarily mean they are better all-round players.

Yes I've read your posts Craig and I broadly agree. I don't think Berdych has enough going for him to fully explain the h2h advantage though, and I think something in Murray's head must contribute.

What's your score prediction? I'm really torn, but I'm going to stay positive and go for Andy in 4 tight sets.

Really curious to see what this match tosses up. I think and feel Murray should win, but I'm more interested to see how Berdych reacts to adversity. He saved BPs at 4*-4 vs Nadal, which might have led to a capitulation even from two sets up for the old Berdych. He also showed great calmness in the Tie break when Nadal went from 5-1, to 5-4*. So he seems to have learnt how to control himself in the midst of an attempted fightback. The question now becomes: can he keep calm in the face of a proper firefight? Until evidence is shown otherwise, I tend to believe that under real pressure, people revert back to their original flaws. As such, Think the moment Murray mounts a proper comeback (if behind), or surge (if even) Berdy fades to whatever hideous colour H&M have in store for tomorrow.

Danny, a lot depends on Andy's first serve. If that remains as excellent as it has been in the last couple of matches it will certainly enhance his chances. Secondly, and also importantly, it will depend on Andy's mindset. If he is too passive Berdych will win as he'll offload his bombs first so Andy must be aggressive. If Andy is aggressive, moves Berdych around and keeps up a high level of first serves I am confident he will win but if not it would not surprise me if Berdych wins.

I will trust that Andy will come through - like you in four sets. If he loses I won't be downbeat considering the form he has shown here is better than anything he produced last year.

Danny_1982 wrote:Socal - agree that Novak's FHDTL is a bit factor why he has an easier time vs Berdych than Andy does. Plus a more solid second serve of course.

I think it must be a little bit mental too though. I mean, Murray is far better on paper. He's way better all round. And it's utterly insane to have a better win % against Federer than Berdych! The HC head to head is 3-3, which is also surprising. All points to a very close match. 2 good semi finals on the cards actually, with 4 players in really good form.

I actually think Andy is mentally very strong. I mean the mental component comes down to if you have had success against a certain player you are more confident in your approach as opposed to if you have struggled. I don't think Berdych in particular has any voodoo over Andy. I think it comes down to subtle differences in Andy's style, strengths, and weaknesses that makes this match up tougher for Andy. He has to get Berdych moving and not let his sit close to the middle of the baseline and bash away. Plus like others have said Djokovic's second serve is less attackable than Andy's. These are the main differences that feed into Tomas' game.

He's capped alright.........

Capitulated!

The window of opportunity for a slam win is fading for Berdych. This was a big miss, but being on the other side of the draw could have been worse.

Come on the Big Boredych winning a GS seals it as wee Keira , so thankfully he didn't and we all should be thankful to Murray for restoring the Tennis pride.

Wonder if Lydian still thinks Berdy would have crushed Murray at US12 but for the wind? Remarkably similar score today.

Born Slippy wrote:Wonder if Lydian still thinks Berdy would have crushed Murray at US12 but for the wind? Remarkably similar score today.

Windiest part of the match was early on when Berdych won the first set. Died down a bit after that.

I'm a bit disappointed with Berdych in this match. He was serving for the first set at 5-4 and then served poorly to lose serve. The same old Berdych appeared in that game. He was serving like a dream throughout that first set and yet faltered in the most important game! He had to play three more games, including a tense tiebreak, to win the first set but he had spent too much energy for that IMO. Murray is/was always the fitter guy of the two, the faster guy too, and so never allowed Berdych breathing space and time after the first set. I felt that Murray would still win the second set had the first set ended earlier, but the score might not be 6-0.

Berdych IMO, is certainly not in the class of the 'big four' and so when they're playing at or near the top of their games, they would beat him most of the times. It's too bad for Berdych, I think he may have missed the boat (of winning a slam),

Even though Tomas won that first set, he never looked that good after serving a sloppy game at 5-3 in that opening set.
Interesting that Murray had a lot of success hitting forehands cross court deep into the Berdych forehand corner where the Czech seemed slow to move along the baseline.
Horrible service game by Berd in the middle of the third set. He never looked like he would get back in the match. So we are back to the big four actually being the top four again.