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Barcelona Open 2015

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CaledonianCraig
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Post by Matchpoint Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:53 pm

First topic message reminder :

Draw: http://www.atpworldtour.com/share/event-draws.aspx?year=2015&eventid=425

Although Djokovic has been doing all the winning of late, the lead character in the current clay season scenario is still Nadal. He did better this year than last year in MC, reaching the semi and thereby moving up the ranking from #5 to #4. Would Nadal  continue to gain momentum this week and win Barcelona? Hard to stay. To win Barcelona he'd probably have to defeat a very motivated defending champ Nishikori who will definitely fight very hard to recapture his earlier #4 place back from Nadal. Will the main attraction be the battle of #4?


 Kei looked pretty good winning his opening match in straights. Good to see a non-Spaniard posing a real threat on clay for a change. Buckle your seat belt and stay tuned! Bubbly

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Post by laverfan Sun Apr 26, 2015 1:42 pm

Henman Bill wrote:Quite surprised to see Ferrer lose. I don't know much about Andujar but didn't expect that. I can't help but wonder if Ferrer is a bit of a bottler. When it's Nadal in the final he gets to the final all the time but when the draw opens up, he loses.

Of the last several years, I have watched Ferrer, The only occasion I recall where he could have done better was RG Final. Losing matches should not be equated to being bottler, should it? Andujar played quite well and exploited Ferrer's limitations very well, as does Nadal, and many others.

He is the same age as many of the older players on tour, Lopez, Haas(?), Stepanek, Federer, Hewitt,...

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Post by LuvSports! Sun Apr 26, 2015 2:02 pm

Haas and Stepanek are in the 1978 club, the rest are 1981. Ferrer 1982.
I have a weird ability to correctly say the year for which a well known sportsman was born from this time onwards.

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Post by summerblues Sun Apr 26, 2015 2:17 pm

Henman Bill wrote:SB, the argument that Djokovic is more likely to lose early at FO before facing Rafa...I always agreed with you before. This year.... I am not even sure about that argument anymore.

Djokovic record of avoiding early defeats is stronger than Rafa's at the moment.
I do not know, you could be right. Perhaps in my mind Djokovic's current streak is more a purple patch than a new steady state level. Also, the stretch from the fall HC season through Miami is pehaps the Nole-friendliest portion of the season. I expect him to start losing a bit more through spring and summer. Anyway, I could be wrong.

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Post by summerblues Sun Apr 26, 2015 2:49 pm

temporary21 wrote:which made both points of your comment unneeded, as is your reply.
I disagree. If you read my comments in good faith you will see that the way your post was rewritten does not fully address the problems with it - in fact both sentences in your post remain problematic.

Also, I find it conceptually inappropriate that while your post (in its initial incarnation) ran borderline afoul of the forum rules, while mine did not, it was my post that got deleted.

Finally, an additional point: why was BB's time violation view singled out as being off-topic? It did not appear any more off-topic to me than some other discussion points - some of which continue unmolested on this thread.

Apologies for being persistent on this, but I do see this as a moderation quality issue that needs to be discussed. Happy to continue via PM if you prefer so, but not happy to drop it.

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Post by It Must Be Love Sun Apr 26, 2015 3:03 pm

summerblues wrote:I still have Rafa as the RG favorite.  As others have said, the guy lost one match there over 10 years.  He just about has to be the favorite until someone dethrones him.

Also, who can beat him there?  Even in his current form, I do not see the likes of Fognini having a chance in a BO5 - especially not with Rafa fighting tooth and nail as I am sure he will be.

Other than Nole, everyone has to be a huge underdog in a match against Rafa at RG.  I can perhaps see Nishi beating him if stars align and everything just clicks in his favor, but pretty much noone else.

So that leaves Nole.  He might have a better than 50% chance in a one-off match but I also think that - their current form notwithstanding - Nole is more likely to go out early.

All in all pretty close for me between Rafa and Nole, but would still give Rafa the edge - and that is unlikely to change no matter what happens in Madrid and Rome.
lol

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Post by Jahu Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:36 pm

Coon on Ninja, slice him thin, quickly.
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Post by Jahu Sun Apr 26, 2015 6:19 pm

Kei wins 6:4, 6:4, not a bad match.

Well done Ninja Hug
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Post by Matchpoint Sun Apr 26, 2015 6:37 pm

66th-ranked Andu was nevertheless a handful. Impressive victory for Kei. Now go take care of last year's unfinished business in Madrid. clap

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sun Apr 26, 2015 6:58 pm

Kei will be a threat to anyone on clay this season. He moves better than Novak on clay imo, takes the ball even earlier than Novak. I think only a top form Rafa is sure to beat him, an off form one? Well...

Itll be interesting to see Kei vs Fed and vs Novak on clay this season. I hope Rafa regains his form, if not I wont want to see him vs Kei this clay season.

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Post by HM Murdock Sun Apr 26, 2015 7:43 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Itll be interesting to see Kei vs Fed and vs Novak on clay this season. I hope Rafa regains his form, if not I wont want to see him vs Kei this clay season.
Kei is the player I'm most nervous about Novak facing at RG.

Federer too, is always a worry but I think he is certain to still be number 2 by RG, so he can't be faced before the final.

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Post by LuvSports! Sun Apr 26, 2015 7:55 pm

Kei made Rafa look silly last year in Madrid before getting injured. Was brilliant to watch his outrageous shot making.
Just got to hope his body holds up!

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Post by socal1976 Sun Apr 26, 2015 8:25 pm

It Must Be Love wrote:
summerblues wrote:I still have Rafa as the RG favorite.  As others have said, the guy lost one match there over 10 years.  He just about has to be the favorite until someone dethrones him.

Also, who can beat him there?  Even in his current form, I do not see the likes of Fognini having a chance in a BO5 - especially not with Rafa fighting tooth and nail as I am sure he will be.

Other than Nole, everyone has to be a huge underdog in a match against Rafa at RG.  I can perhaps see Nishi beating him if stars align and everything just clicks in his favor, but pretty much noone else.

So that leaves Nole.  He might have a better than 50% chance in a one-off match but I also think that - their current form notwithstanding - Nole is more likely to go out early.

All in all pretty close for me between Rafa and Nole, but would still give Rafa the edge - and that is unlikely to change no matter what happens in Madrid and Rome.
lol

I agree that Nadal is and should be the favorite at RG. And all this speculation can look silly if he goes on to win again at RG. Yes he doesn't look good now but we saw the same thing last year where he all off sudden finds his form at the tale end of the tournament and Djokovic somehow doesn't show up at the critical points in their matchup. There is still a lot of tennis between now and till the close of the clay court season.

Where I disagree with SB is that I don't think Djokovic will go out early at RG. He has shown that even when not playing his best he gets by 99 percent of the tour. I think Wawrinka, Foggy, Ferrer, Fed, or Almagro could trouble him on this surface and put him out but I think he probably wins on current form against any of them on clay over 5 sets. I think of the two I would think Nadal is probably more in danger of going out early but I anticipate that they will have to play each other at some point to determine who will win.

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Post by temporary21 Sun Apr 26, 2015 8:32 pm

socal1976 wrote:
It Must Be Love wrote:
summerblues wrote:I still have Rafa as the RG favorite.  As others have said, the guy lost one match there over 10 years.  He just about has to be the favorite until someone dethrones him.

Also, who can beat him there?  Even in his current form, I do not see the likes of Fognini having a chance in a BO5 - especially not with Rafa fighting tooth and nail as I am sure he will be.

Other than Nole, everyone has to be a huge underdog in a match against Rafa at RG.  I can perhaps see Nishi beating him if stars align and everything just clicks in his favor, but pretty much noone else.

So that leaves Nole.  He might have a better than 50% chance in a one-off match but I also think that - their current form notwithstanding - Nole is more likely to go out early.

All in all pretty close for me between Rafa and Nole, but would still give Rafa the edge - and that is unlikely to change no matter what happens in Madrid and Rome.
lol

I agree that Nadal is and should be the favorite at RG. And all this speculation can look silly if he goes on to win again at RG. Yes he doesn't look good now but we saw the same thing last year where he all off sudden finds his form at the tale end of the tournament and Djokovic somehow doesn't show up at the critical points in their matchup. There is still a lot of tennis between now and till the close of the clay court season.

Where I disagree with SB is that I don't think Djokovic will go out early at RG. He has shown that even when not playing his best he gets by 99 percent of the tour. I think Wawrinka, Foggy, Ferrer, Fed, or Almagro could trouble him on this surface and put him out but I think he probably wins on current form against any of them on clay over 5 sets. I think of the two I would think Nadal is probably more in danger of going out early but I anticipate that they will have to play each other at some point to determine who will win.
All the really dangerous big hitters, Tsonga, Del Potro and such are out of form or injured. The only thing that would hurt Novak is something like Dolgopolov, or Federer, but if he meets Roger then hes in the final, by which point I expect its way too late to catch him cold

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Post by Jahu Sun Apr 26, 2015 8:36 pm

Kei will go to FO SF I hope.
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Post by socal1976 Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:22 pm

temporary21 wrote:
socal1976 wrote:
It Must Be Love wrote:
summerblues wrote:I still have Rafa as the RG favorite.  As others have said, the guy lost one match there over 10 years.  He just about has to be the favorite until someone dethrones him.

Also, who can beat him there?  Even in his current form, I do not see the likes of Fognini having a chance in a BO5 - especially not with Rafa fighting tooth and nail as I am sure he will be.

Other than Nole, everyone has to be a huge underdog in a match against Rafa at RG.  I can perhaps see Nishi beating him if stars align and everything just clicks in his favor, but pretty much noone else.

So that leaves Nole.  He might have a better than 50% chance in a one-off match but I also think that - their current form notwithstanding - Nole is more likely to go out early.

All in all pretty close for me between Rafa and Nole, but would still give Rafa the edge - and that is unlikely to change no matter what happens in Madrid and Rome.
lol

I agree that Nadal is and should be the favorite at RG. And all this speculation can look silly if he goes on to win again at RG. Yes he doesn't look good now but we saw the same thing last year where he all off sudden finds his form at the tale end of the tournament and Djokovic somehow doesn't show up at the critical points in their matchup. There is still a lot of tennis between now and till the close of the clay court season.

Where I disagree with SB is that I don't think Djokovic will go out early at RG. He has shown that even when not playing his best he gets by 99 percent of the tour. I think Wawrinka, Foggy, Ferrer, Fed, or Almagro could trouble him on this surface and put him out but I think he probably wins on current form against any of them on clay over 5 sets. I think of the two I would think Nadal is probably more in danger of going out early but I anticipate that they will have to play each other at some point to determine who will win.
All the really dangerous big hitters, Tsonga, Del Potro and such are out of form or injured. The only thing that would hurt Novak is something like Dolgopolov, or Federer, but if he meets Roger then hes in the final, by which point I expect its way too late to catch him cold

Dolgo is too wild for me to challenge Novak on clay probably hit himself out of the contest with errors. I just get the sense that Djoko v. Nadal will happen at some point, could be as early as the quarters. And I think one of those two guys are going to lift the trophy.

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Post by bogbrush Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:30 pm

The rankings could produce a very strange draw. We could have Djokovic, Nadal and Nishikori in the same half.

Fingers Crossed

Smile
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Post by Haddie-nuff Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:34 pm

That of course would help Federer.. so you need Fingers Crossed Wink

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Post by temporary21 Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:48 pm

Rafa is 110 points above Nish at the moment. When do they take the seedings for RG again? If Kei is 5th thats a living nightmare of a quarter final for one of the big 4

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Post by LuvSports! Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:06 pm

Less of a nightmare than having a 9 time FO champ at no5!

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Post by temporary21 Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:09 pm

Thats a good point, I would be really interested to know if Novak would rather have Rafa in the quarters, than the final... in any case Gratz to Nish

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Post by LuvSports! Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:18 pm

I think QF. Rafa only really got going in the sf and final last year.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:11 pm

The thing is, Novak himself is also not much better at the QF stage, so whether it's Rafa or Kei, he'll struggle to beat them.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:15 pm

Also, if Rafa could get to the QF, that means he's already playing well, and so he's a nightmare for anyone meeting him there.

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Post by Henman Bill Tue Apr 28, 2015 2:41 am

No, if Rafa can get to the QF at the FO, that means nothing more than he is still breathing, and doesn't have a broken leg, and Robin Soderling has not come out of retirement.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Tue Apr 28, 2015 3:25 am

Note that Rafa had not lost at the QF stage at the FO, and note that he came alive by the QF stage, remember 2013 and 2014, two years where Rafa wasnt playing stellar tennis at the FO?

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