Madrid Masters Thread

[JuliusHMarx]

First topic message reminder :

Take it away Jahu.

[CaledonianCraig]

Very impressive. Andy's simply been in that lovely groove he often gets in and looked like he'd rarely miss - which must be very daunting for any of his rivals

No. He won't win the French, but this is all looking good for Wimbledon and beyond

We now must all realise that the recovery from the back surgery took all of last year and that this is the most fit Murray has been in around four years (remember he mentioned that he first damaged his back 18 months prior to two years ago - when he explained why he was missing the French)

Rafa could have permanent issues. I though Nishikori played better than him and I'm not convinced that he'll even make the RG final

Novak will never have a better chance - next year the likes of Nishikori will be even better and so our favourite Serb needs to grab the opportunity

Totally agree.

In the last year or so I doubted moments like these would come around for Andy as his form and confidence dipped to new depths. However, in recent weeks things have gradually begun coming together and his serve has come on leaps and bounds plus he has a steely quiet determination about him. Heck at times today he looked like he was an a hypnotic trance he was so tuned in. Impressive. He's got that monkey off his back that he was not that good on clay and as you say he will be buzzing for Wimbledon. Onwards and upwards Andy.

[banbrotam]

Was he really that much better against Berdych? And that much worse against Murray? Murray was a tougher opponent. I didn't see set 2 against Berdych, but based on set 1 I'd say take out 2 winners and add about 2 UEs and that was probably all the difference there was.

I didn't see the Berdych match either - but it's highly likely that the Czech went to his usual level of play he nearly always gives when facing the big three, i.e. nowhere near as good as previous matches with an increasingly presence of no-belief.

I no longer read anything into victories that the usual suspects have against Berdych. If he had half the 'bottle' that Nishikori had, he'd problem have at least one slam

[Guest]

Just got in from a party. Frak me he really won??

No. You've obviously drunk too much 'Carlsberg'

So that means he probably won

Just fantastic!! Never thought Andy would win a Clay Masters. It gets better!

Come to think of it, I did treat myself to a bottle of 'Peroni' just before the final started. I'm now deeply worried that it's all been a dream - but no the ATP website states he won

We'll enjoy it while we can. Perhaps the most important thing is that in beating Nadal and even Nishikori he's back causing problems for the players he  must do to win a slam or two more

It's a huge win for him. Mentally that will lift him even higher. It's great to see him ripping the BH down the line and getting those first serves in too.

Just hope he takes it going forward.

[Henman Bill]

I did actually enjoy Murray's performance by the way Murray fans, it was good tennis, it was fun to watch.

[Belovedluckyboy]

I don't think Rafa will win his tenth FO this year. Maybe no one can win ten titles at a slam. It look to me that Rafa is in permanent decline now, he can play one good match but can't play a few in a row. I agree, this is the best chance for Novak to win the FO, and he may not even need to beat Rafa to win it. Come next year, I think Kei may be ready to win his first slam, and I think his best chance will be at the FO. Novak better hits the right form at the FO this time and makes the best of the situation now that Rafa is no longer the force that he was.

As for the calendar slam, I doubt Novak could do it, as Andy is looking good so far this year, and may peak for Wimbledon. Andy's BHDTL is getting better and better, and I think if he can have high first serve %, I like his chances vs Novak on any surface. Fedal will steadily retire into the sunset, I doubt Fedal will be any threat at the slams even though they may still reach SF or QF.

[JuliusHMarx]

I did actually enjoy Murray's performance by the way Murray fans, it was good tennis, it was fun to watch.

The matches vs Rafa and Nishi were the way I like to see him play. I just wish it was like that more often.

[Silver]

I did actually enjoy Murray's performance by the way Murray fans, it was good tennis, it was fun to watch.

The matches vs Rafa and Nishi were the way I like to see him play. I just wish it was like that more often.

I think we all do, Murray fans included!

[Guest]

I did actually enjoy Murray's performance by the way Murray fans, it was good tennis, it was fun to watch.

The matches vs Rafa and Nishi were the way I like to see him play. I just wish it was like that more often.

I think we all do, Murray fans included!

Indeed. Long may it continue.

[CaledonianCraig]

I did actually enjoy Murray's performance by the way Murray fans, it was good tennis, it was fun to watch.

The matches vs Rafa and Nishi were the way I like to see him play. I just wish it was like that more often.

I think we all do, Murray fans included!

Of course. But with Murray it is always this way. When he is on it mentally, tuned in and focussed with a gameplan things fall into place and he is a match for anyone. Sadly, it has not happened as much as it should but there you go.

[Danny_1982]

Murray has gone up a level on clay. He's beat 3 top 8 players in a few days. In his entire career before this week he had 1 top 8 victory. He looks fit and confident. It's a shame that Rafa was so off as it would have been nice to see how much Murray could have hurt him in this form.

I agree with Banbro, not a serious contender for the French. But beyond looks really positive. I'm particularly excited about Wimbledon.

I said once that he will end his career having never reached a clay final. Delighted to be wrong. I did not think he was capable of this weeks level on clay. If only he could serve like he had this week all year...

[laverfan]

@HB... Berdych had left the court mentally, after losing the TB v Nadal.

There is stark contrast in Nadal, between v Berdych and v Murray. The racquet roulette is making it worse. I agree with BLB on declining Fedal. Federer , has at least been steadily improving after the racquet change.

[Haddie-nuff]

Very impressive. Andy's simply been in that lovely groove he often gets in and looked like he'd rarely miss - which must be very daunting for any of his rivals

No. He won't win the French, but this is all looking good for Wimbledon and beyond

We now must all realise that the recovery from the back surgery took all of last year and that this is the most fit Murray has been in around four years (remember he mentioned that he first damaged his back 18 months prior to two years ago - when he explained why he was missing the French)

Rafa could have permanent issues. I though Nishikori played better than him and I'm not convinced that he'll even make the RG final

Novak will never have a better chance - next year the likes of Nishikori will be even better and so our favourite Serb needs to grab the opportunity

Totally agree.

In the last year or so I doubted moments like these would come around for Andy as his form and confidence dipped to new depths. However, in recent weeks things have gradually begun coming together and his serve has come on leaps and bounds plus he has a steely quiet determination about him. Heck at times today he looked like he was an a hypnotic trance he was so tuned in. Impressive. He's got that monkey off his back that he was not that good on clay and as you say he will be buzzing for Wimbledon. Onwards and upwards Andy.

Well done to Andy CC clap The better man won.. congratulations

[Jahu]

Andy has not lost a match since married.

Kim must be magic in bed

Hm, you think the amount of sex actually increases in a marriage vs before, how very quaint of you !

Not the amount, but the "quality", don't be so auto-erotic

[Jahu]

#AndyMurray: Unbeaten since getting married. Writes 'Marriage works!' on the camera. Yes it does, apparently. http://pic.twitter.com/gDqQukhI4Z

[YvonneT]

Here's an interesting comparison.

Murray now has 3680 points in the race.

Last year heading into Shanghai Masters, he had 3575.

He eventually qualified for the O2 with 4475 points.

That's an illustration of how far Andy has improved this year to last.

I think there are similarities with where Rafa is now with Murray last year. Missed a large part of the back of the season, surgery (Rafa had stem cell treatment on his back, as well as his appendix out, did he not?), curtailed off season training, appeared almost but not quite ready at the start of the season, several unexpected losses, resulting in lower confidence. I know he had that impressive comeback season in 2013, but that was an aberration rather than the norm, plus he didn't have surgery then. Of course, he is nearly 29 so may never get back to near his best, but it's too early to cite decline to me. We can judge this time next year I'd say.

[Henman Bill]

You can see Murray getting to no 2 ranking towards the second half of this year or early next year.

[LuvSports!]

I think he deffo will have it after the US open, if not before.

[banbrotam]

Here's an interesting comparison.

Murray now has 3680 points in the race.

Last year heading into Shanghai Masters, he had 3575.

He eventually qualified for the O2 with 4475 points.

That's an illustration of how far Andy has improved this year to last.

I think there are similarities with where Rafa is now with Murray last year. Missed a large part of the back of the season, surgery (Rafa had stem cell treatment on his back, as well as his appendix out, did he not?), curtailed off season training, appeared almost but not quite ready at the start of the season, several unexpected losses, resulting in lower confidence. I know he had that impressive comeback season in 2013, but that was an aberration rather than the norm, plus he didn't have surgery then. Of course, he is nearly 29 so may never get back to near his best, but it's too early to cite decline to me. We can judge this time next year I'd say.

I do think that these boards have some of the most intelligent tennis knowledge I've come across, but it's apparent that we all underestimate just how long it takes to get back to their best. It took Del Potro two years to get back to where he was previously, following his 2010 surgery and in fairness to both Murray and Nadal their injuries were just as serious, i.e. no guarantee that they would ever be their former self

[sirfredperry]

Interesting to see how the bookies respond now. Will they still have Rafa as favourite for RG?
   
I still would make him favourite. He's only lost one match there in 10 years, for Pete's sake. It's much harder to beat him over five sets than three. His whole year is geared round winning the French.

Having said all this, he's more vulnerable this year than ever before. True, he was vulnerable in 2011 but only if he had met Djoko in the final. This year, you think, others might beat him. French intransigence with the GS-flexible ranking system could see him playing one of the other top four alarmingly early.

Terrific win for Andy M. He certainly won't have to slog through minor tourneys in the autumn this year top qualify for the 02.

[YvonneT]

I would still have Djokovic as slight favourite, but Nadal a close second.

Firstly, Nadal was out of sorts at this stage last year, including nearly losing the Madrid final to Nishikori last year. He didn't get much better in Rome either. It didn't change what happened at the French.

Secondly, the conditions in Madrid are quite different, including altitude and balls - but most crucially, the final yesterday was in the evening and Roland Garros do not have night sessions so Nadal won't have to contend with the difference from the day conditions.

[dummy_half]

SFP

Agree with most of your post above - Rafa has to be either favourite or 2nd favourite behind Djokovic, just based on his history at the tournament, but the prospect of him losing at any point from about round 4 onwards looks much more likely than at any time in his career.

I'm not sure 5 sets will make that big a difference, as I don't think Rafa has quite the same physical edge as in previous years (certainly behind Djoko and probably Andy in terms of court-covering speed and conditioning at the moment).

I do think it is a little soon to write Rafa off entirely. If he is playing at this level at this point next year then we can start seriously considering that the decline is permanent, but look at how Murray has gone early this year compared with last, when he was still recovering and hampered by a lack of conditioning training in the off season.

[CaledonianCraig]

SFP

Agree with most of your post above - Rafa has to be either favourite or 2nd favourite behind Djokovic, just based on his history at the tournament, but the prospect of him losing at any point from about round 4 onwards looks much more likely than at any time in his career.

I'm not sure 5 sets will make that big a difference, as I don't think Rafa has quite the same physical edge as in previous years (certainly behind Djoko and probably Andy in terms of court-covering speed and conditioning at the moment).

I do think it is a little soon to write Rafa off entirely. If he is playing at this level at this point next year then we can start seriously considering that the decline is permanent, but look at how Murray has gone early this year compared with last, when he was still recovering and hampered by a lack of conditioning training in the off season.

I agree.

A lot depends on Rafa mentally now. He has done it before as in came back from injuries but as I have said before those circumstances were different. Pre-injury/illness lay-off Rafa was hoovering up slams and Masters titles whereas this time Rafa has been largely out of sorts since RG last year so it will take greater mental strength and self-belief to come back this time. And whilst he is trying to get back to where he was then these losses only serve to fuel other players beliefs that Rafa is beatable meaning they step onto court only 50% intimidated instead of 100% intimidated.

[Haddie-nuff]

The difference this time, when compared to last year is his inconsistency.
Why does he play a match like he did against Berdy, followed by the disaster against Murray. Even during the match against Andy he made some breathtaking shots, followed by shots he could barely get over he net or a string of UEs.  If that match had been at the FO Im confident Andy would have taken a third set off him. If you read Rafa's  presser you will see he doesn't understand it himself.. he knows he has to do better but Im not sure he knows how. Ive watched Rafa for all of his career.. there is something happening which is quite inexplicable.

[Haddie-nuff]

This much is obvious.. the man is hurting

“Whatever will happen will be,” said Nadal. “It's something that we have to realise, all of us, that what's happening during these last years, it's very complicated to be ten or eleven years without leaving the Top 4."

[CaledonianCraig]

The difference this time, when compared to last year is his inconsistency.
Why does he play a match like he did against Berdy, followed by the disaster against Murray. Even during the match against Andy he made some breathtaking shots, followed by shots he could barely get over he net or a string of UEs.  If that match had been at the FO Im confident Andy would have taken a third set off him. If you read Rafa's  presser you will see he doesn't understand it himself.. he knows he has to do better but Im not sure he knows how. Ive watched Rafa for all of his career.. there is something happening which is quite inexplicable.

Murray was at that stage as well. I remember Wimbledon last year where he had looked decent getting to the Quarters but was bizarrely inept and out of sorts against Dimitrov and got crushed in straight sets. Consistency is a hard thing to discover and it took Murray a good year to get it back to any great degree after his back op.

[banbrotam]

All the top players thrive on two things. Confidence and mental toughness. Obviously they go hand in hand

At their best (Roger 2004-06, Rafa 2010/2012, Andy - Wimbledon events 2012/13) they play so effectively and with such brashness that their opponents are more or less 3-0 down in the first set, before getting on court

Once that aura goes, which it obviously will do if you're searching for form after an injury, then they become fair game. The other sharks are no longer too bothered about the great white, that's fallen on hard times and like on the tennis court, will try to attack it and dominate it

Currently Rafa is seen as fair game on any surface. It's testament to the reputation he's built up that he's not doing even worse on his favourite dirt

Probably the last thing he should have done is talk about a lack of confidence. I admire him for it and if your remember Fed gave a similar 'woe is me' press interview at Miami 2009, when he more or less said, he was glad to see the back of the hard courts as he was at a loss as how to play on them. It was an astonishing admission, baring in mind it wasn't as though he'd been knocked out in the quarters for that season!!

Roger would go on to benefit from Rafa's injury that year and at last win the French and we can deduce it was his ongoing back issues, at the time, that no doubt gave the earlier pessimistic outlook

Significantly, he was also a similar age to Andy and Rafa are now. I think that when you have an injury that you realise could wreck your career it must really play with your mind, particularly when you're in your late 20's

When going on the court this translates to great shots of old, but the over-anxiety gives a lot of rubbish as well, i.e. Fed's wonky backhand back then and now Rafa's unreliable use of his deadly spin. Last year, it looked for a while that Andy had forgotten how to return properly. In other words is their 'signature' shots that often suffer - making the mental disintegration even more severe

Rafa can recover, but not certain it's going to be enough to see off four or five players  who can now genuinely beat him on Clay. Christ! He only needs to get Fognini in the first round of the French (possible if you look at the Italian's ranking) and suddenly he's in big danger (as would everyone actually)

[Haddie-nuff]

What undoubtedly must be adding to his anxiety is knowing that he is expected to win the FO. Having made a rod for his own back. The final judgement so to speak. The ultimate failure
He said a couple of years back, in a press interview, after all the problems he had with his knees. That the rankings do not bother him as much as not being able to win tournaments. And when the day comes  he cannot
win those tournaments.. he will retire. Will the FO be his swansong

I think that dropping so far down in the rankings has affected him more than he expected it to...also. judging the camera shots I got of his parents and Toni there is obvious family concern

[temporary21]

Perhaps the best thing to happen would be to lose his RG crown. The pressure is then taken completely off him then and he can go back to just playing. That lets him become the hunter again.

[Silver]

Maybe. That could well happen (I expect it to), but it could also go the other way - an unlucky Wimbledon draw & early exit, plus a poor start to the HC season could see the malaise and lack of confidence carry on. I think he's too good to allow that to happen, though.

Murray will definitely take #2, possibly after Wimbledon although that's out of his hands unless he wins it.

[temporary21]

Yeah it could spell the start of an awful year for Nadal. Then however the next season hes got nothing to prove, and nothing on his back. Once you hit the bottom you can only go up, Roger had that in 2011, Novak 09, Murray after the Wimby final 2012.

[temporary21]

Murrays trouble is still not playing the right way against "weaker" opposition. Hes still quite vulnerable to being put out early, or wasting too much time giving his opponents hope in early rounds.

[Jahu]

I think Babolat will come up with some magic balls or racquet or something to help Nadal at FO

[Guest]

I find with Nadal similar to Sampras. A total confidence player who on their favoured surface had an invincibility of being the man. Regardless of results elsewhere Pete had Wimbledon like Rafa has the French Open. When Pete lost to Federer, that invincibility deserted him and a year later he couldn't wait to exit the stage. I feel that with Rafa. If he loses that invincibility at the FO we could see a more steep decline.

[LuvSports!]

Oh ye the balls are key.
Babolat's are slower and get more bounce.
Dunlop fort's are different. Come the FO Rafa will be fine imo, unless babolat mess up the balls again like they did in 2011 when they were faster.

[Belovedluckyboy]

It's not all doom and gloom, the FO court is not a fast clay court, and Rafa has all the time in the world to defend there. He will also have time to change things up. I would not imagine Rafa sticking to the same way of playing had the Madrid final been a BO5 sets match. He would most likely raise his level and become more aggressive in the third set; he was already doing that mid way of the second set but it's a bit too late to do so. In that Isner match at FO2011 R1, Rafa was able to raise his level after he was down 1-2 in sets; as long as Rafa is physically well, he's able to fight all the way through over five sets. Bo5 on clay gives Rafa enough time to work his way through tough times during a match, and he's able to raise his level when it matters most at the end of the match, he has only lost one BO5 match on clay and in four sets, and that was when he's not physically in tip top conditions. When it comes to the FO, I know Rafa will fight tooth and nail to win, even when he's not playing well.

[Belovedluckyboy]

...so the doubt that Rafa couldn't beat four or five players in a row at the FO is a bit too pessimistic I think. He may not win the title in the end, but he can at least reach the QF or the SF I feel.

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