Wimbledon draw

Murray in Federers half. Rafa's quarter.

Djokovic obviously in Stans half.


QF. Djokovic v Nishikori
Wawrinka v Raonic
Ferrer (or Nadal) v Murray
Berdych v Federer

Someone cleverer than me might be able to plot the routes...

Potential early dangers;

Djokovic - Kohlschreiber (first round!), Tomic, Anderson, Janowicz
Stan - Verdasco, Thiem, Kyrgios
Murray - Coric, Tsonga, Nadal
Federer - Sock, F Lopez

That's a tough draw for Djokovic. Kohlschreiber definitely one of the most dangerous opponents to face in a 1st round and Tomic, if he's in the mood, is no pushover on grass.

Nadal's draw looks fairly good for the 1st week - don't see any massive dangers for him on this surface early on, apart from Pospisil perhaps?

Apparently there's a heatwave on its way in a few days - this could help Nadal, but also some of the big flat hitters.

James Ward has also drawn david ferrer
Roger probably has Querrey 2nd round too

Tough draw for Novak, hard to believe he could meet kohli in round 1.

Weather for once looks decent for next week. Bear in mind a heat wave in London is no New York, Melbourne or Paris! Still nadal would love it

MrInvisible wrote:That's a tough draw for Djokovic.  Kohlschreiber definitely one of the most dangerous opponents to face in a 1st round and Tomic, if he's in the mood, is no pushover on grass.

Nadal's draw looks fairly good for the 1st week - don't see any massive dangers for him on this surface early on, apart from Pospisil perhaps?

Apparently there's a heatwave on its way in a few days - this could help Nadal, but also some of the big flat hitters.

Don't think Rafa can play Pospisil until 4th Round. Pospisil would have to have beaten Ferrer/Fognini by then too. Obviously Fognini could be a problem...?

I am guessing Troicki is the big danger in 3rd round. Belluci is a big hitter so could have been a kinder first round. Not sure Belluci and Brown/Lu will bother him too much. But didn't think Rosol or Darcis would either.

Bellucci not so good on grass, but Brown and Lu are good on grass, don't forget Brown beat Rafa at Halle last year. Fog not so good on grass, Pospisil isnt playing well lately so he may lose to Ferrer.

'Likely' routes

Djokovic
R1 - Kohlshreiber
R2 - Niemenen (or Hewitt for a final CC appearance?)
R3 - Tomic
R4 - Anderson
QF - Nishi or Cilic
SF - Stan / Raonic

Stan
R1 - Sousa
R2 - Ben Becker
R3 - Thiem / Verdasco
R4 - Goffin
QF - Raonic / Dimitrov

Murray
R1 - Kukushkin
R2 - Haase
R3 - Seppi / Coric
R4 - Tsonga
QF - Ferrer / Nadal
SF - Fed

Federer
R1 - Dzumhir
R2 - Querrey
R3 - Sock
R4 - Lopez
QF - Berdych

Certainly Djokovic has got the toughest draw (on paper) up to R4 - Kohli is only just outside the seeded positions, Tomic is streaky and has had good results in the past at Wimby and Anderson's serve gives him a puncher's chance against anyone.

Kyrgios drawn to face Raonic in R3, so not a banana skin for the really big names until the QF.

In my opinion, Murray has the toughest draw of the bunch:
R1 and R2 are ok,
but Seppi just went to Halle F, Coric is a talent we're all looking at (although arguably not for grass, but he's still young, he could surprise)
and mostly: Tsonga is the worse R4 opponent, he won't be afraid of pushing Andy (if JWT's brain shows up).
Then Ferrer or Nadal can be tiresome, before meeting grass legend Federer...

However, Djoko's QF streak would end at some point. It might not be this time though.

biugo wrote:

............................................................................

However, Djoko's QF streak would end at some point. It might not be this time though.

It's an impressive streak, both in terms of fitness and consistency of play.

How long before he matches/breaks the QF consecutive appearance record ..... ?? .....currently held by Connors ....or is it Federer ......

Great draw for Fed. Should cruise to the SF and with energy left in the tank for the SF/F. Great chance for 18.

Think Djokovic has the toughest draw overall.

Tsonga probably represents the first real threat and Murray was unlucky with that.

Who is the toughest q/f? I guess Nishikori. Maybe Raonic.

Yep, it's a testing draw for Novak. But when you're the World No 1 (and by some comfortable distance ....) you should have the confidence to take on all-comers.

Meanwhile I'm wondering how long before the absent socal is back with his customary talk of cupcakes

lags72 wrote:

biugo wrote:

............................................................................

However, Djoko's QF streak would end at some point. It might not be this time though.

It's an impressive streak, both in terms of fitness and consistency of play.

How long before he matches/breaks the QF consecutive appearance record ..... ?? .....currently held by Connors ....or is it Federer ......

By Federer, who pretty much holds all GS consecutive records (in the open era). Iirc, Djoko needs another 3 years of straight QF (12 QF) to equal Fed's streak... So he would get the record if he reaches all QF until at least Wimbledon 2018 QF (included)

Note that they're more or less at the same point age wise - Djoko would reach 36QF at 31y and a few months, Fed did a few months before 32y.

Djoko is 28+ now - since Fed had this age, he had 5 Finals for 2 W. Djoko is only starting: 1 Final and 0 win.

dummy_half wrote:'Likely' routes

Djokovic
R1 - Kohlshreiber
R2 - Niemenen (or Hewitt for a final CC appearance?)
R3 - Tomic
R4 - Anderson
QF - Nishi or Cilic
SF - Stan / Raonic

Stan
R1 - Sousa
R2 - Ben Becker
R3 - Thiem / Verdasco
R4 - Goffin
QF - Raonic / Dimitrov

Murray
R1 - Kukushkin
R2 - Haase
R3 - Seppi / Coric
R4 - Tsonga
QF - Ferrer / Nadal
SF - Fed

Federer
R1 - Dzumhir
R2 - Querrey
R3 - Sock
R4 - Lopez
QF - Berdych

Certainly Djokovic has got the toughest draw (on paper) up to R4 - Kohli is only just outside the seeded positions, Tomic is streaky and has had good results in the past at Wimby and Anderson's serve gives him a puncher's chance against anyone.

Kyrgios drawn to face Raonic in R3, so not a banana skin for the really big names until the QF.

Good stuff, would people mind if i pasted this on the op?

Born Slippy wrote:Great draw for Fed. Should cruise to the SF and with energy left in the tank for the SF/F. Great chance for 18.

Really ....

Three years ago I might have agreed, but having watched him struggle to convert BP chances over the last 18 months or so (and often against relatively 'unheralded' players), can't say I share your confidence at all. I don't have exact stats, but would imagine his conversion ratio to be amongst the worst of high-ranking players.

The days of him 'cruising' to SF's are long gone IMO.

It's noticeable just how often even he himself has begun to talk of luck playing a part in many pressers following tight, edgy wins (witness Kohli R1 Halle, who had rarely troubled him at all in previous clashes ..... and there are many other examples).

biugo : thanks for additional info re QF streaks

Murray has a rough potential route, but the reality might be quite different. Nadal is far from certain to beat Ferrer and Federer v Berdych could be tight too.

Novak's draw could be fun. Lot of good looking matches in there. I fancy a Novak v Andy final to be honest.

I don't buy this Murray hard draw business. If he's on the money and it's going to be as hot and hence as fast as they say it is - then I see no demons

The Beeb are even more worried as is obvious from their announcement that (and I paraphrase) "Murray faces a host of tough players". Really? At a slam? Amazing

Roger should dust off the cardigan for when he wins back his Wimbledon trophy

Am I missing something? Since when has Rafa ever loved fast low bouncing conditions? i.e. like he'll get if it's hot

banbrotam wrote:Am I missing something? Since when has Rafa ever loved fast low bouncing conditions? i.e. like he'll get if it's hot

But if it's hot the courts should harden and bounce more?

Jermaine2015 wrote:

banbrotam wrote:Am I missing something? Since when has Rafa ever loved fast low bouncing conditions? i.e. like he'll get if it's hot

But if it's hot the courts should harden and bounce more?

But they'll still be fast, plus it makes those with the ability to deliver a good slice shot even more of a pest. As we saw in 2013, that split second of time taken away played havoc with Rafa

On his form the last thing he needs is another fast playing Wimby. Cloudy, cool and no rain (i.e. no roof), yes he could still be a danger

We've seen what he's been like in faster clay court conditions recently and it wasn't up to his standard

Hot, dry and high bounce is pretty good for Nadal. By the second week it'll be a virtual clay court.

Djokovic has by far the easiest draw. Are people seriously thinking Koli is gonna beat him over five? No, exactly. Tomic is beyond useless when it matters. There are no other players with any real grass court pedigree on his side of the draw. All the other past champs and finalists are on the other side, except Hewitt, but of course he's finished. Djokovic has a clear run to the final. This seems to be the only place on the internet where anyone thinks Djokovic has a tough (relatively speaking) draw.

Murray has the toughest draw if it pans out.

Federer has a good draw until the quarters and then it gets tough. The person who said he'll breeze into the semi/final doesn't have a clue. I don't see him getting past Berdych and Murray consecutively.

Rafa has a tough draw from the quarter onwards but relatively straight forward until then. Ferrer is the best possible opponent in the last 16 of those available but beating Murray, Federer and potentially Djokovic back to back is a lot to ask.

In contrast Djokovic potentially has to beat just one of the only four men (including himself) who've won Wimbledon in the last 12 years.

I was going to put in my thoughts but reading Animalfan's summary I see I do not need to - I would have just written a carbon copy of that anyway.

Easy or tough draw, nobody can predict how things turn out. Maybe the likes of Rafa/Murray need to beat three of the big four to win; or maybe Stan could reach the final and then wins it? Who knows!

Something about Stan, he likes to go unnoticed but somehow turns up to play his best when it matters. I think he hasnt met Novak on grass at Wimbledon, thats the only slam they haven't met, I'm looking forward to their first meeting on grass, will it be another five setter should they get to meet?

Kohlscreiber is a hard draw for round 1. I mean any round 1 is going to be easy for Djokovic, but that's relatively more difficult.

When is the order of play for Monday likely out?

Also I've been before but has anyone been in the last couple of years, I'm thinking

5am in the queue for say court 2
6am in the queue to get in by 12 noon for outside courts
7am to get in by 1-2pm, but maybe still get in

Does that look about right? for first day.

I've done it once before some years ago and it was about like the above.

Animalfan wrote:Hot, dry and high bounce is pretty good for Nadal. By the second week it'll be a virtual clay court.

So it'll be hot and dry with a high bounce but, strangely, won't be playing fast? Isn't that a denial of physics? Doesn't really matter how much Rafa likes the high bouncing ball if he struggles to reach it

Now if the weather cools down in the second week and there is no rain, then I half agree

This is not exactly on topic but neither is it worth a new thread .....popping in to say that I cannot believe the current paucity of posts when we are just one day away from perhaps the biggest event of the tennis calendar.

I know that 606 regularly goes through periods of feast & famine ..... but this strikes me as unprecedented, whatever the reason......

Is everyone holding their fire, like a coiled spring that will suddenly spring into life on Monday ......

Lags: Totally agree.

HB: Yes, Kohli is a hard R1 opponent - perhaps even the hardest one possible - but if I were Nole I'd still rather have Kohli in R1 and Andy in the other half than vice versa. And by some margin. Nole has relatively hard opponents in the first few rounds and relatively easy ones thereafter. Overall a very good draw.

Still, I hope Kohli beats him somehow.

For me lags it just feels like ohhhh another tournament to be won by one of the usual suspects. Nothing much has changed between RG and Wimbledon that gives me optimism. Just feels the chasing the pack are even more further away from the others.

legendkillarV2 wrote:For me lags it just feels like ohhhh another tournament to be won by one of the usual suspects. Nothing much has changed between RG and Wimbledon that gives me optimism. Just feels the chasing the pack are even more further away from the others.

This type of post was bizarre enough 2 years ago, when we had four tremendous players dominating. Now, not only do we still have those 4 players battling away (with the added intrigue of whether Rafa can come back) but Stan has won 2 of the last 6 slams playing phenomenal aggressive tennis and one of the others was won by a total outsider blazing his way through the draw. What are people looking for - total randomness? Personally, I don't want to go back to the days when the likes of Sampras were winning Wimbledon without facing a top 10 player. I want to see most of the best players making it through so we get the best matches in the latter rounds.

Born Slippy wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:For me lags it just feels like ohhhh another tournament to be won by one of the usual suspects. Nothing much has changed between RG and Wimbledon that gives me optimism. Just feels the chasing the pack are even more further away from the others.

This type of post was bizarre enough 2 years ago, when we had four tremendous players dominating. Now, not only do we still have those 4 players battling away (with the added intrigue of whether Rafa can come back) but Stan has won 2 of the last 6 slams playing phenomenal aggressive tennis and one of the others was won by a total outsider blazing his way through the draw. What are people looking for - total randomness? Personally, I don't want to go back to the days when the likes of Sampras were winning Wimbledon without facing a top 10 player. I want to see most of the best players making it through so we get the best matches in the latter rounds.

So with that bizarre post let me ask you...

Who do you think will win Wimbledon?

Well what's to say really. Things haven't started yet, and the uk weather is great. i went to see Australia bowl out Kent today

I'd like kohli to get a set, start things off with a good match. More than anything I'm just waiting for it to begin

I agree with the preious statement that it's Andy's to lose. I'd wish Fed to take it a last slam though...
And eventually, I'd fancy a Wawrinka - Murray Final won by Stan, and Andy winning the next Australian Open (wished he won last one already...) to have 4 contenders for career GS

Could Nishi do something against Djoko on Grass?

Erm well I did agree with a previous thread that grass makes nishis serve a little less punishable. However I don't think so, hc is his best surface

Rafa is going to struggle to win the tournament no matter how grass plays. Has to be an outside chance (10%) even if the conditions favour him.

There was a ton of posts during the French Open I thought the bought was quite busy, I think it should pick up soon or at least the back end of the tournament.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:For me lags it just feels like ohhhh another tournament to be won by one of the usual suspects. Nothing much has changed between RG and Wimbledon that gives me optimism. Just feels the chasing the pack are even more further away from the others.

This type of post was bizarre enough 2 years ago, when we had four tremendous players dominating. Now, not only do we still have those 4 players battling away (with the added intrigue of whether Rafa can come back) but Stan has won 2 of the last 6 slams playing phenomenal aggressive tennis and one of the others was won by a total outsider blazing his way through the draw. What are people looking for - total randomness? Personally, I don't want to go back to the days when the likes of Sampras were winning Wimbledon without facing a top 10 player. I want to see most of the best players making it through so we get the best matches in the latter rounds.

So with that bizarre post let me ask you...

Who do you think will win Wimbledon?

Federer - I think he's been building for this all year and the draw works well for him. I think his 18th will happen here.

More pertinently, how has a situation where Wawrinka won the last slam made you feel that the chasing pack are further behind? Surely Stan was part of said pack? I'm guessing you didn't pick him to win RG?

Where do you get 4 contenders for career GS?

If it's going to be ultra hot then it might impact on Djoko, who, to me, is favourite. Still can't quite believe he lost the French, although I don't wish to detract from Stan's achievement. He was magnificent.
I remember Djoko sweating through a semi in tremendous heat against JMDP in 2013 and then not playing that great in equally hot conditions against Andy in the final. No wonder Djoko does so well at the Australian - he plays mostly at night.
  I think Rafa will do well (this from the guy who tipped him to win the French!).Don't know about Rog. He could face Querrey and Sock early on. You would never have expected to see him lose to Seppi at the AO, so anything could happen.
  Andy looks in good shape. Mind you, he played immaculately for four rounds last year then had a shocker against Dimi. He'd had a huge row with, by all accounts, Kim just before the match.
Djoko to win the men's and Serena the women's.

Looking at the draw this is simple enough to call.

Djokovic to cruise to the final. There is no one really who can match him. Stan is not great on grass and still high on his RG win I doubt cares what happens here.

Federer to throw in a shocker early on. Last year he played much better than this year in general and he had a dream draw but came up agonisingly short. With every 12 months that pass it does not get easier. If he is to win, he needs some results to go his way and some luck. Amazing to think its come to Fed needing 'luck' to win a slam now. There is a reason no one has won 8 titles here. I think for Fed to retire as the all time Wimbledon great is deserved looking at his performance.

Nadal will play better this year and I have a feeling make the semis at least. Final will be Murray/Djokovic with Murray perhaps coming out on top.

I would not be at all surprised if we have a Nadal/Djokovic final and Nadal to pull something amazing out of the bag. I believe he will do something this year to show the world he is not done.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Where do you get 4 contenders for career GS?  

Just in my tired head - I meant 3 (should the scenario in the post pan out - which probably won't - but at least I`d like andy to take AO over Novak)

favourites "head" : Djoko > Murray > Federer > rest (that's considering the draw too: Djoko has a nice one, all other winners or finalists are in bottom half, bar Hewitt who is not a threat anymore)

favourites "heart" : I'd like Federer to get #18, then a new winner (preferably new slam winner altogether), then Murray. I don't wish Djoko to stay too far ahead in the points, to keep things interesting towards the year end, like last year.

Born Slippy wrote:More pertinently, how has a situation where Wawrinka won the last slam made you feel that the chasing pack are further behind? Surely Stan was part of said pack? I'm guessing you didn't pick him to win RG?

So one swallow makes a summer?

Yes I didn't have Stan marked as the winner of RG, but he has certainly captalised on his chances. Last time Stan won a Slam he went out of the next one in the first round. I'd like to see a young upcoming star make a break out at a Slam. I am tired of the same names just as you were of Sampras.

Ferrer out of Wimbledon with a wrist injury, Lucky loser luca Vanni takes his place.

Great news for Ward!
Vanni, vesely, lorenzi, pospisil, millot, smyzcek and fog don't have the best grass court record.
Dream big Wardy and you can make it to round four to play rafa! #theimpossibledream

Novaks draw is harder to start but easier at the end. Probably the best way around. I don't see Rogers draw is really easy.  Quartet and sock. Then maybe berdych murray and Novak.  Should make quarters minimum but it gets tricky. Does he have the energy for the lot?  I don't think Nadal will get to murray which makes his job easier

Nadal wont get to Murray, meaning he wont even reach R4? Really?

You mean not meeting Rafa makes Fed's job easier? How so, when he has to face Murray who's now more formidable than Rafa on grass?

I mean Rafa wont get to QF, given that Ferrer has withdrawn?

I can see Novak going out earlier than expected. With Murray reaching the final playing Stan or Kei

Roger has a real chance IF the latter stage conditions remain hot and as there is no chance of a significant cool period, that's why I'm going for all round instinctive shot makers / or crafters

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Nadal wont get to Murray, meaning he wont even reach R4? Really?

You mean not meeting Rafa makes Fed's job easier?  How so, when he has to face Murray who's now more formidable than Rafa on grass?

Yeah as you said afterwards I dont think nadal wil reach the QF's, which means Murray has a likely easier job. Fed should make the quarters, from there though hes got Berdych, which he should win but you never know nowadays, then Murray, then Novak. Given hes probably got sock and querrey too, I just wonder if he wont get ground down before the end.