Cincinnati Masters

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Full draw: http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2015/422/mds.pdf

Watching the Cilic / Gasket match and I've never seen such a fat ballgirl!! She doesn't look mobile at all and handles the balls like someone who dodges games. PC rules!

OMG ....sounds very much like Djoko went postal.  

Whatever next ....?

Just as well he didn't lose his head completely - or he might have asked people to 'be quiet' ....  

Do hope socal wasn't watching.

He still got through though

lags72 wrote:OMG ....sounds very much like Djoko went postal.  

Whatever next ....?

Just as well he didn't lose his head completely - or he might have asked people to 'be quiet' ....  

Do hope socal wasn't watching.

No it's Federer that asks the crowd to be quiet. Djokovic asks the crowd to do something else entirely

I wonder how much Novak wants to win Cinci - given its the only Masters he doesn't have? If not for that, I couldn't see him forcing his way to the final here.

Similar situation for Murray. Only real incentive for him is the Number 2 seeding for US. Not sure he would be that fussed otherwise.

Federer tells the crowd to shut up.

hawkeye wrote:

lags72 wrote:OMG ....sounds very much like Djoko went postal.  

Whatever next ....?

Just as well he didn't lose his head completely - or he might have asked people to 'be quiet' ....  

Do hope socal wasn't watching.

No it's Federer that asks the crowd to be quiet. Djokovic asks the crowd to do something else entirely

Was that before or after Djokovic smashed his racquet to pieces - in a fit of what HMM referred to as "childish, pathetic behaviour" ?

Good win for Lopez v Nadal. Dimitrov really struggling v Murray.

It is Murray's turn to struggle. down a break in third. No aggression, just happy to keep looping the ball in.

Nadal was fairly terrible tonight- flashes but no consistency. Certainly not high risk play nor aggressive.
Fed denied another chance at a poor form nadal on a surface that favors fed.

Lopez is a much better test for Federer on this surface.

If Rafa could handle this Lopez, he could handle Fed! Lopez is playing well here and if he doesnt fold against Fed, then he'll be tough for Fed.

Anderson is slumping after his loss to Novak at Wimbledon. I think Anderson is losing to anyone these days! Not a good gauge of Fed's level.

Dimi goes the route of Goffin, massive choking!

Nadal had brain freeze tonight, kept hitting to Lopez's BH which was on fire all night. Gone is the thinking Nadal, what we have left is a panicky Nadal.

BLB... it could be that the Nadal's desire for Tennis is dwindling.

Anderson has played 2 games on his terms in this entire match, and he won those two.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Dimi goes the route of Goffin, massive choking!

Dimi was up a break in both sets, but Murray also played pretty badly.

Yeah, I feel Rafa may retire after 2016. I don't think he's going to win much next year so he may call it quit.

hawkeye wrote:He is not merely putting the ball in play and hoping that his opponent will make errors. He tries to take progressive control. The idea being he keeps the risks down with his own play but makes his opponent hit progressively higher risk shots from progressively more difficult positions.

Yes, agree with that, this is what I mean when I say:

summerblues wrote:Second, his neutral rally shot can cause people all kinds of trouble, meaning it is hard to rally with him.

But it still is a relatively low-aggression game in the gamut that tennis styles can span.  As you say, Rafa is aiming to bring the opponent into a progressively more difficult position, but he is not trying to pre-empt aggression from the opponent outright.  Usually, early in the rally, the opponent has the choice of going on attack, but Rafa banks on his defence to be able to withstand that attack more often than not.  And current conditions make it workable.  In the old days, high risk shots had a better payoff so high risk tennis was higher percentage than it is today - and usually high risk play was ultimately higher percentage than low risk play.

Absolute masterclass from fed.

Easy win for Fed and nice to see Rafa go out early yet again.

Too bad about Dimi. He was serving for the match and folded miserably. We could have had 4 SHBHs in the QF in the bottom half. Still, 4 SHBHs out of 8 is not bad.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Yeah, I feel Rafa may retire after 2016. I don't think he's going to win much next year so he may call it quit.

I would not be sure about that. He is planning to switch to a new racquet and he would not be doing it if he were not planning for a few more years. Also, did not uncle Toni say a few weeks ago that he expected Rafa to be back in slam winning form next year?

Amri, I think you are now implicitly predicting that Rafa will win this year's USO.

Amri did predict nadal would earn more points during the North American hard court swing than he did on clay. Looking iffy.

Racket change or not it won't help if there's no mindset change!

Rafa said he'll work hard and do well at Cincy and look where's he now? Imo, the game has past him by; they're now playing power tennis, serving and hitting as hard as possible. If Rafa is not going to adapt and still plays his usual way, he'll lose more than he wins going forward.

He's not hitting with depth and power; even his volleys sit up high enough for Lopez, who's not known to be quick on court, to reach them and return with interest. Rafa's serve is poor, his ROS is poor, movement not so great. It's a tough road forward if he couldn't adapt and make some changes to the way he plays.

I still think that Toni would not be talking about return to slam form if they did not have some reason to believe he will improve.  They tend to be relatively conservative with their predictions.

Plus he is not quite as far behind as people make it out to be.  He is currently probably somewhere around 5-8th best player in the world.

Anyway, I hope you are right and he is done for good , but I expect we will see more of him.

TRuffin wrote:Amri did predict nadal would earn more points during the North American hard court swing than he did on clay.    Looking iffy.

Yes, I see you remember too.  That is the one I had in mind.  If I am not mistaken, the only way that will happen is if Rafa wins the USO.

But I actually think it is not totally inconceivable - even though a long shot now.

Yep, the situation seems irretrievable now. Strange that a combination of appendicitis and a bum wrist could finish him off.

More than that, its his back thats the issue I feel. He did a stem cell treatment to his back end of last year, and said that if that still couldnt work then he really didnt know what else he could do; that to me seemed that his back issue was more serious that what we thought. I think hes still not trusting his back. I notice that hes not pushing as hard on his ground strokes, not using too much his core strength.

I think at the back of his mind, he's still worry about his back. I think he lacks mental focus too. It seems that every part of his game is affected - his serve, his ROS, his movements, his groundstrokes.

I also notice that he returns poorly too, not varying the way he returns, just hit as hard as possible to return serves, no blocking back or chipping back of serves vs big servers. Its unlike the Rafa we used to know, whos good at his ROS and wins most of his BP chances to break serves.

Rafa fails to keep his appointment when Federer is favourite again.

kingraf wrote:Yep, the situation seems irretrievable now. Strange that a combination of appendicitis and a bum wrist could finish him off.

Well it obviously couldn't, could it? The answer lies elsewhere.

...his back.

Isnt it the same when Rafa was favorite Fed didnt make it, at USO2013?

So Dimitrov led by a double break in the 2nd and lost it and then 5-3 in the 3rd? That's pretty bad.

Pretty much it seems. Sad state of affairs really.

In fairness, both Novak and Andy seem to mentally still be in Canada. I think both will lose today.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Isnt it the same when Rafa was favorite Fed didnt make it, at USO2013?

Hardly representative. Federer made clay final after clay final: the h2h shows how clay dominated it is.

A worse clay player than Federer would have had a far better h2h, and just when he would appreciate Rafa showing up to pay his dues he isn't there....

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Isnt it the same when Rafa was favorite Fed didnt make it, at USO2013?

In 2013, when Federer was awful and Rafa imperious, they met 4 times. Rafa won them all.

Now that Rafa is the one struggling, they are not meeting all.

But you can bet people will still harp on about Rafa's h2h against his rivals.

Murray was so terrible, that I gave up on him when he went a double break down in the second. It was as though he'd watched how Nadal played against him at Madrid and copied him . Amusingly Murray seemed totally disinterested, as if in two minds whether to simply let the match go - but of course it might be a fleeting thought but is not in the DNA of the Scott!!

However, Dimitrov was playing 'lights out' Tennis, with a particularly accurate backhand. It suddenly occurred to me why so many have faith in him. 22 winners in one set, ain't bad

Goodness knows what happened, but Murray amazingly could have levelled in the first set - some inspired play gave him a break point etc. So I guess he stepped

In fairness I'm surprised anyone's surprised at the Top 2's struggles - the Montreal / Cincy swing is ridiculous. No way is any player going to be at their best after a final like the Monty one

One thing is for certain the Top 3 are miles clear of the rest, depending on which Stan turns up of course

HM Murdock wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Isnt it the same when Rafa was favorite Fed didnt make it, at USO2013?

In 2013, when Federer was awful and Rafa imperious, they met 4 times. Rafa won them all.

Now that Rafa is the one struggling, they are not meeting all.

But you can bet people will still harp on about Rafa's h2h against his rivals.

Rafa does seem rather adept a avoiding playing his three main rivals, these days

banbrotam wrote:

One thing is for certain the Top 3 are miles clear of the rest, depending on which Stan turns up of course

Tennis at the top is like a comedy of errors. Raonic, Kei and Ferrer injured or returning from injury and Warinka "sledged". Cilic and Berdych struggling to win two matches in a row. From what I've seen of Djokovic and Murray they are doing what they are best at... putting the ball in play and waiting for other players to self destruct. Old Federer is being made to look good.

Not really that surprised about Rafa. Cincy has always been tough for him and I've read that Lopez played very well and took the match on a 3rd set tie break. Nothing unusual for Rafa to lose a match such as this on a court such as this even in his best years. Bet Fed is devastated. 5 of his ten wins against Rafa have come at the WTF a surface Federer loves. Cincinati is another surface that particularly suits Federer. He must have been licking his chops at the prospect of playing Rafa today.

I'm cheering for Fed to win the whole thing now. But it will be small compensation for the chance to get a win over Rafa.

Fed should win comfortably now. Both Murray and Novak look exhausted and he usually has the edge against them at Cinci anyway. The draw has worked out perfectly for him.

HM, the season is not over yet. There are some more events to play. How do you know they wont meet later.

Banbro, Rafa did meet Novak twice and Murray once this year. Rafa met Murray only twice last year when Murray wasnt having a good season,its not like they're meeting often last year.

Youre right Hawkeye. Its kind of a joke that the top 10 guys other than the top 3 are either injured, coming back from injury or those who arent, cant string two or three wins together. It made the top three look better than they really are. Goffin and Dimi could have won their matches but choke big time. Fed could win his match in straight sets even when serving at what 27% first serve? Anderson with a big serve, ranked 15 or 16 was dispatched in 54 min winning only 3 games!


I do hope Murray could challenge Novak, if not we may be seeing another Fed like dominance by Novak going forward.

laverfan wrote:BLB... it could be that the Nadal's desire for Tennis is dwindling.

Did you watch the match ? I wouldn't be too sure about that.

summerblues wrote:

TRuffin wrote:Amri did predict nadal would earn more points during the North American hard court swing than he did on clay.    Looking iffy.

Yes, I see you remember too.  That is the one I had in mind.  If I am not mistaken, the only way that will happen is if Rafa wins the USO.

But I actually think it is not totally inconceivable - even though a long shot now.

I think I was talking about average points per tournament, but even if I wasn't, pretty clear now that I'll be wrong either way. He got an easy draw in Madrid which will make the difference.

Not that his level has got worse, he's probably playing slightly better tennis now than in May. It's weird to describe unless I just show a clip of the full match, his tennis isn't very bad but he has some costly dips in play.

banbrotam wrote:

HM Murdock wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Isnt it the same when Rafa was favorite Fed didnt make it, at USO2013?

In 2013, when Federer was awful and Rafa imperious, they met 4 times. Rafa won them all.

Now that Rafa is the one struggling, they are not meeting all.

But you can bet people will still harp on about Rafa's h2h against his rivals.

Rafa does seem rather adept a avoiding playing his three main rivals, these days

It's called forgetting how to tennis.

Rafa's level has gone up compared to April/May this year but as usual these days, there are the dips in his level. His ROS is poor by his own standard, when in the past he was able to deal with servers like Isner, Raonic and Karlovic.

Fed wasnt that awful in 2013 when he reached the final at Rome. He also reached the final at Basel, SF at Paris, so he wasnt that awful when he met Rafa that year save for that IW encounter.

Can i say Rafa played awful vs Novak at MC and FO this year? Or awful vs Murray at Madrid too? Not forgetting those were on clay where Rafa was the king.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Isnt it the same when Rafa was favorite Fed didnt make it, at USO2013?

An injured Fed played Rafa at IW in '13 & ROme & Cincy (actually played v well) and wtf's. 
Amid a confidence crisis, racket switching and poor form.

Rafa isn't returning the favour.

Also remember, Nadal playing badly doesn't necessarily mean he's going to lose to Federer.
Today obviously he would have, because his level is not top 4. But generally even in bad form his level is higher than this.
I think for the last 7 years or so (excluding 2015), irrelevant of Nadals form, he'd be either marginal or clear favourite against Federer on a outdoor court.

Thats all I'd say for now, I won't get into a prolonged discussion about Fedal H2H. Everything that's need to be analysed about it has been in the past decade. I think it's reasonable to say Nadal has the edge there.