RWC 15 - Pool C - New Zealand, Argentina, Tonga, Georgia, Namibia

    
Teams:

New Zealand (1) [11/8]
Argentina (8) [66/1]
Tonga (11) [2000/1]
Georgia (16) [5000/1]
Namibia (20) [5000/1]

Fixtures:

19 Sep Tonga v Georgia
20 Sep New Zealand v Argentina
24 Sep New Zealand v Namibia
25 Sep Argentina v Georgia
29 Sep Tonga v Namibia
2 Oct New Zealand v Georgia
4 Oct Argentina v Tonga
7 Oct Namibia v Georgia
9 Oct New Zealand v Tonga
11 Oct Argentina v Namibia



The most imbalanced pool group of the tournament features the world cup holders, their Rugby Championship colleagues, Argentina, and a trio of also-rans.

Despite Tonga's elevated position in the rankings, are they likely to overcome the bookies's odds-on favourites for this pool?

The outcome of this pool is likely to be confirmed after the second day of the tournament when NZ play Argentina.  After that, the only interest may be about who scores the most tries, and the odds are with the world champions on setting that record.  Some of the scorelines could show up the real disparity between nations competing at this event.

Possible fireworks and tense moments?  The match between the two heavyweights on the 20th, and Argentina v Tonga on the 4th.  Tonga get the shameful minnow treatment in having to back up 5 days between playing Argentina and New Zealand to secure a hope of qualifying.  Maybe they give it their all against the Argies, and their hearts against NZ in the final pool match.

This thread appears to be correctly named given the less than rabid discussion which has ensued upon it.

Not a great Group. The big shock I suppose is that Georgia might topple Tonga, but probably not. Kiwis and Argies to go through, in that rather predictable order.

Where are the Tongans and Georgians on this board, come forth and show yourselves!!

Maybe dong will help us out here

Cool, I've just noticed...

If you add the rankings together of all the teams in the group:
1+8+11+16+20 = you get 56

Then take all the dates of the group match and add them together also:
19+20+24+25+29+2+4+7+9+11 = 140.

Divide the latter number by the first 140/56 = 2.5

Multiply the 2.5 by the chances of this group having an upset (0). Which gives us 0. Even that is boring.

JonnyEdinburgh wrote:Cool, I've just noticed...

If you add the rankings together of all the teams in the group:
1+8+11+16+20 = you get 56

Then take all the dates of the group match and add them together also:
19+20+24+25+29+2+4+7+9+11 = 140.

Divide the latter number by the first 140/56 = 2.5

Multiply the 2.5 by the chances of this group having an upset (0).  Which gives us 0.  Even that is boring.

I liked that

The kiwis have Argentina first up and old kiwi favourite Barnes is manning the r*** alarm.

NZ have a win rate under Barnesy of 51% so the pool could flip and upset the whole balance of the tournament.

NZ v Argies and Tonga v Argies are the two matches that could get wobbly, other than that, nothing to write home about.

In future draws, I think NZ, Aus and SA should be drawn into one group to at least make it exciting.......

If New Zealand lose to Argentina in their first game, France and Ireland will be playing out a farce of game where the loser gets to avoid the All Blacks in their last pool game.

I think we'll let France win if NZ are runners up in their pool.

As someone who is hoping for some change in European rugby, I'm hoping for Georgia and Romania to make waves in this tournament.

For Georgia, that would have to be more than winning the dead rubber against Namibia at the end of the pools. I haven't been following their warmups, but they've certainly been the team to beat in the Nations Cup.

The two make or breaks will be the first two against Tonga and, should they win, Argentina to play for a likely quarter final spot. Topple those two, and they could change European Rugby the way Argentina's 2007 run forced a change to the Rugby Championship.

When you think about it, Argentina got the best draw of anyone. They can lose to NZ and still cruise to a 1/4 final. And they can rotate their squad up to that point.

I don't think it will be a cruise for them- the score lines should be comfortable in the end against Georgia and Tonga, but those games will be extremely physical.

But from an Argentinean point of view, Ireland and France are both beatable in the quarter-final.

I think an interesting issue is going to be the performance of the likes of the minor countries. I'm hoping there will be some surprises. I think the world cup is the only time they really get to prepare for major games with a fullish squad.

Probably should point out that the AB's games will physical. We're short a lock and physical wingers who specialise in securing the high ball and kicking. I wouldn't be surprised if we suffer injuries in these positions.

I think a big issue in this group for the rest of the tournament could be the impact of some very physical games for New Zealand. Playing the big Argentine, Georgian and Tongan packs who will be very up for it, could be some injuries

Marshes wrote:I think a big issue in this group for the rest of the tournament could be the impact of some very physical games for New Zealand. Playing the big Argentine, Georgian and Tongan packs who will be very up for it, could be some injuries

Yes, it remains true that for many teams like these, a match against the All Blacks in a world cup is their 'final'.

Expect some injuries.

Nothing in the form book to suggest Georgia will have a great tournament - they've been underwhelming in the warm-up games, whereas Tonga and Argentina have played well. I don't think any team will upset the ranking order in this pool (i.e. I agree with the thread title!)

This Group has been touted by some as the easiest Group,with respect the Boks Group
is easier.Argentina and Tonga currently are more of a threat than Scotland and Samoa
and with Wayne Barnes.
ANYTHING is possible and even with two losses the AB`s could still progress.

I can see Dagg and Jane being emergency call ups. I personally think Milner-Skudder and Nandolo will blow out early.

Interesting tidbit from Georgia who will be announcing their squad shortly for their Saturday match against Tonga.

Merab Kvirikashvili and Giorgi Chkhaidze are the only Georgia players to have been selected in all four of the country’s World Cup squads since they first qualified for RWC 2003, and both admit the game has evolved dramatically in Georgia ever since.

"Up until 2003 we didn’t have a stadium or a proper training ground, we only had three or four balls to train with for the whole team and even then they weren’t new balls - they were faded and used," Chkhaidze said. "But since then we’ve seen a huge amount of progression in Georgia with stadiums built, proper training bases, team buses and so on."

Chkhaidze’s 11 RWC matches are joint second for Georgia, one behind Kvirikashvili who has played in all 12 of Georgia’s World Cup matches to date.

donglewood wrote:I can see Dagg and Jane being emergency call ups. I personally think Milner-Skudder and Nandolo will blow out early.

I'm interested to see how we cope with the high ball threat, especially if someone employs a good kick chase. Last time we had the "bomb squad".

This world cup, unfortunately, will be about the up-and-under, the scrum reset and set piece yellow cards, the lineout drive and penalty tries.

So many elements of "foul play" are now being penalised in free play - the so-called "choke grip", no-arms tackles, touching a guy when he's in the air, looking at a guy funny when he's trying to kick it that the idea of open expansive rugby has again been throttled to death.

That's why the kiwis won't win it. They're not a set-piece based team. Don't get me wrong, their unit is decent enough to hold it's own in a game won out-wide or on the counter. But this world cup won't feature those games.

The winner will be one of South Africa, England, Argentina or France.  

It's virtually impossible to defend a line-out drive and now that "world rugby" have made failure to engage a penalty offence (crazy) that's game over for anyone who doesn't field 8 fatties and a good goal kicker.

I actually think Argentina will win on Sunday. The kiwis have a 50% record when Barnes is in charge. In the last world cup cycle they've lost 3 times. Twice of those Barnes was the ref. They just don't see eye to eye with the guy about what the game is about.

That'll put the kiwis on the other side of the draw where they'll probably go out in the quarter, probably to England.

donglewood wrote:This world cup, unfortunately, will be about the up-and-under, the scrum reset and set piece yellow cards, the lineout drive and penalty tries.

So many elements of "foul play" are now being penalised in free play - the so-called "choke grip", no-arms tackles, touching a guy when he's in the air, looking at a guy funny when he's trying to kick it that the idea of open expansive rugby has again been throttled to death.

That's why the kiwis won't win it. They're not a set-piece based team. Don't get me wrong, their unit is decent enough to hold it's own in a game won out-wide or on the counter. But this world cup won't feature those games.

The winner will be one of South Africa, England, Argentina or France.  

It's virtually impossible to defend a line-out drive and now that "world rugby" have made failure to engage a penalty offence (crazy) that's game over for anyone who doesn't field 8 fatties and a good goal kicker.

I actually think Argentina will win on Sunday. The kiwis have a 50% record when Barnes is in charge. In the last world cup cycle they've lost 3 times. Twice of those Barnes was the ref. They just don't see eye to eye with the guy about what the game is about.

That'll put the kiwis on the other side of the draw where they'll probably go out in the quarter, probably to England.

poor trolling effort. the All Blacks can't play England in the quarters

Good call. But I did say probably the quarter.

I don`t think it wise to take ANYTHING for granted from the RC or warm up games.
The VIDEO ANALYSTS of all teams will be looking for chinks in armour,games may
have been sacrificed to keep some things secret.
As an example the lost 3Ns game when Hooper/Pocock combo was so successful
why not the obvious counter.
Half time the AB`s had the better of it just,McCaw/Cane playing right/left last 40.
or Cheika changing his tactics for Eden Park game knowing he had little chance
of winning there.
In the Group Games the running game[weather permitting]will be ok after that
think your right the typical RWC game will takeover.
Argentina win it?get to the bookies now,don`t write off Tonga either at 2007
and 2011 they were very good relatively speaking.

Argentinian lock Galarza is out of the tournament having been banned for gouging Brodie Retallick for 9 weeks.

I presume he can't be replaced in the squad?

Tonga play Namibia next tomorrow 29 Sept.

Tonga will be on the lookout for evil caravan-dwelling colonialist gypsies smuggling rankings in their pockets.