Wimbledon Day 9 (Wednesday)

First topic message reminder :

Men's quarters today. The big surprise, of course, is that Rafa does not feature. A scan of all the Wimbledon posts/threads would probably reveal that most thought he would not only reach this stage but could well win the whole thing. All things pointed to another SW19 triumph for the Spaniard. He was fit, confident and in form. 
   Reckon Murray will get past Querrey but what about Rog? It will be tough against Raonic but I'm still to be convinced that the big Canadian moves that well on grass, despite his good Wimbledon record. I don't think either Murray or Fed have been that convincing so far, so both are due a stand-out performance.
   Asking a lot of Muller to follow up such a brilliant display against Rafa with a triumph over Cilic, while I think Djoko will beat Berdych.

Well give Raonic some credit. Hes a proud player and at least hes still throwing some punches

barrystar wrote:

laverfan wrote:Surprised to see Federer up two sets in an hour.

He's handing out a tennis lesson to Raonic - I am not very surprised just on a comparison with a very close match last year.  Federer is fitter and more comfortable with his equipment and in better form, Raonic is in worse form and has not pressed on from what looked to be a relatively promising upturn last year.

Fed has always been a massively superior player, and it's showing.

No disagreements. The second set scoreline was the surprising part. I think he can win this in straights.

If Federer wins this (and he's currently going through a droop in form in the match) his H2H vs. the remaining Semi-Finalists is:

6:1 Cilic
3:0 Querrey
18:6 Berdych

So 27:7 overall - feels a bit like 1997 20 years ago......

It does..

So then whos the Boris Becker in this scenario?

temporary21 wrote:It does..

So then whos the Boris Becker in this scenario?

Eh?

Sampras v Woodbridge

Stich v Pioline

Good win for Federer.

he took in Boris in the quarters. His only top 20 opposition i think

Well I mean its a procession from here.
Be nice for one competitive match maybe, but I dont see it from anyone but maybe Cilic

temporary21 wrote:he took in Boris in the quarters. His only top 20 opposition i think

Aah

Looking at Wikipedia, he won in 5 sets vs. Korda who was #16 in R16, and then in 4 vs. Becker who was #8 in QF.

Federer has faced #13 Dimitrov, #6 Raonic, will be #11 Berdych, and possibly #7 Cilic if they both wins - so a tougher draw on paper with two Wimbledon finalists and (possibly) a Slam winner.

Cilic in current form will represent as much of a threat as a fit (though not prime) Djokovic would have done.

Plus, cannot discount the possibility that Federer will suddenly have a below-par match, coinciding with an inspired performance from Berdych.

Huge credit to both Murray and Djokovic for fighting valiantly to the max. (B. Tomic : watch and learn ......)

An intriguing Wimbledon for all sorts of reasons

Only saw the first two sets of the Fed match and while Raonic was poor, Fed was excellent. Then amazed to see Raonic leading by a double mini-break in tiebreak and thinking this could still be something of a match, only for Fed to seal it.
   A pretty dramatic afternoon and a remarkable couple of days, with three of the Big 4 crashing out (that phrase again). Put it down, possibly, to age. But then the oldest of the quartet is still standing.
   Pleased to see Muller giving Cilic such a good match. Marin got hot at the start of the 5th and ran away with it.

True but no real wimbledon great in his draw, would have had one in Novak but credit to Berdy for keeping his cool

Well you can only beat the players in front of you. On paper, Federer had the toughest r32 r16 and qf of the big 4 but has come through unscathed so far.

After what he did in Australia against the opposition there, I'd fancy his chances against anyone. Just hope he takes his chance here this year. He won't get a better one

Lionel Hutz wrote:Well you can only beat the players in front of you. On paper, Federer had the toughest r32 r16 and qf of the big 4 but has come through unscathed so far.

After what he did in Australia against the opposition there, I'd fancy his chances against anyone. Just hope he takes his chance here this year. He won't get a better one

Yes, agree. Fed was surprised to win the AO this year but he'd be disappointed not to add another SW19 title now. It's looking more and more as if Fed and Rafa will occupy the top two spots in the rankings come the end of the year.
   Even with the older brigade's bodies beginning to fall apart, the average age of the semi finalists is still going to be quite high, with none of the young/younger brigade making much impression at the slams.

I keep desperately hoping that the 'new talent' will make a proper breakthrough at the Slams. But unless something special happens at the USO, it looks like another year of the old guard holding out at the top.

id like Cilic to take this but i cant see it

The young guys have to take the mantle one day, but if they dont have any slams therell be a huge downturn in tennis.

Before Murray started this tournament he gave an interview saying he thinks he only has a few years left - indicating about two years - and saying he might not last as long as Federer. I wonder whether he was referencing possible chronic, long-term, degradations to his body - such as his hip joint.  He indicated now that he is older he keeps getting small injuries from the normal day to day pounding of the tour (training and competition), while having difficulty fully recovering from other injuries.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/40295412

temporary21 wrote:id like Cilic to take this but i cant see it

The young guys have to take the mantle one day, but if they dont have any slams therell be a huge downturn in tennis.

What is happening is that the old guys are still winning - except for injuries.  This shows us the huge gulf in quality between the top four players in the "top four era" compared to the other players - as indicated by their absolute dominance in their peak years - and continued dominance / influence in their "pensionable" era.

No name Bertie wrote:Before Murray started this tournament he gave an interview saying he thinks he only has a few years left - indicating about two years - and saying he might not last as long as Federer. I wonder whether he was referencing possible chronic, long-term, degradations to his body - such as his hip joint.  He indicated now that he is older he keeps getting small injuries from the normal day to day pounding of the tour (training and competition), while having difficulty fully recovering from other injuries.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/40295412

Different from an interview with Sue Barker after his 4th Round match. He spoke about having a fair few years left in him (or words to that effect) and spoke of hopefully, one day, playing doubles at Wimbledon with his brother Jamie but he'd only do that when he is finished with singles which he said he was still some way off (or words to those effect).

My chief concern for Andy is that he won't take the necessary time off until the injury has completely healed. He's a workaholic and loves to compete a bit too much. Right now though his body is crying out for a break and I reckon he should take time out - as long as it takes to get over this hip problem. If it takes a couple of months then sobeit. It has not been good watching him toil over the past ten days and looking uncomfortable.

Andy and Novak are now past 30 and the effects of years of slog on the tour are apparent. Both Rafa and Rog have had injury-hit years so it's nor surprising that the other two of the Big 4 are beginning to suffer.
    Fed has effectively reinvented himself and Rafa has also had an outstanding year, despite his setback against Muller. It remains to be seen whether Murray and Djoko can be as effective in their 30s as they have been hitherto.

As for the tournament - it goes on but in the space of the last three days it has gone from being fairly open to a walkover for Roger.

Should probably call the engraver already

It's definitely not a walk over. The problem with grass is that when you have a bad day you can find it impossible to grind out a result particularly against a powerful hitter of which there are 3 left in the tour. All he needs is a below par day and it could be over.

Thankfully he has kept himself fresh thus far making a let down less likely

It would be great to see Federer with 8 SW19s, to Nadal's 10 RGs. Zverev seems to be the young one coming through. Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic (and many others) seem to be finding it harder to match the re-invigorated Big 4.

CaledonianCraig wrote:As for the tournament - it goes on but in the space of the last three days it has gone from being fairly open to a walkover for Roger.

CC - it's rare that I find cause to disagree with you, but I am genuinely surprised by your use of the word "walkover" in this context. Do you honestly mean what you say here  ..... ??

"Walkover" would imply that Cilic - and other semi-finalists - have absolutely zero chance ; why would you be so totally dismissive of them ?

Cilic may only have a solitary win over Fed to date ; but it just so happens that it came at a Slam.

And to further reinforce my point : I don't believe you would ever describe as a "walkover" any Slam in which (a fully fit) Murray could potentially face a player ranked at 6. You just don't use that sort of language for Murray (and understandably so). What makes you do it in the case of Federer ?  Do you really consider the gulf between Murray and Federer to be so extreme ?

laverfan wrote:It would be great to see Federer with 8 SW19s, to Nadal's 10 RGs. Zverev seems to be the young one coming through. Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic (and many others) seem to be finding it harder to match the re-invigorated Big 4.

A Zverev & D Thiem - I have been very impressed with Thiem - he is exciting to watch. Hopefully Kyrgios can overcome his injuries.

Agree that it's far from a walkover for Fed, but he's obviously the big favourite. But then so was Rafa, albeit from a position much further away from the final than Fed is now.
   Fed had never lost a Wimbledon semi until the Raonic defeat last year. Berdych did shock him at Wimbledon in 2010 and then beat Djoko in the semis. Should Tomas win on Friday at least he wouldn't have to face three of the Big 4 as he did in 2010 when losing to Rafa in the final.
   I'm taking Cilic to beat Querrey, although I feel the winner of the other semi would rather face the American in the final than the Croatian. Despite most favouring Fed for the title, there are some who see Marin possibly capturing his second GS crown.

No name Bertie wrote:

......................................

 A Zverev & D Thiem - I have been very impressed with Thiem - he is exciting to watch.  Hopefully Kyrgios can overcome his injuries.

I believe we should include the young Canadian, Denis Shapovalov as one of the 'new' prospects. Disappointing to see him exit in R1 - but better things await him, I'm pretty sure.

Kyrgios is hugely talented, but may need to do more than just overcome injuries. Am not yet totally convinced his head is always in the right place to build a solid career that will maximise his undoubted potential.

Lionel Hutz wrote:It's definitely not a walk over. The problem with grass is that when you have a bad day you can find it impossible to grind out a result particularly against a powerful hitter of which there are 3 left in the tour. All he needs is a below par day and it could be over.

Thankfully he has kept himself fresh thus far making a let down less likely

I agree entirely with this view. Federer in sporting terms is a pensioner and no where near as physically capable, flexible and quick (reaction time) as in his peak of about ten years ago. Calling it a potential walk over is disrespecting "Federer the Pensioner" in terms of the effort, commitment and remodelling (strategy, tactics) he has put in to maintain his competiveness ... and it is disrespecting the opposition he will face.

That said I think he has taken the opportunity afforded him of the clear decline in both Murray (cumulative injuries) and Djokovic (motivation & injuries) in their games. I agree with those that say Murray should maybe take as long as needed to recover from his injuries - maybe take the rest of the year off(6 months). Both Nadal and Federer benefitted from taking a significant period off.

Also Federer is beginning to manage his schedule - for example taking the entire clay season off. I suggested Nadal should have taken the grass season off - and his post match comments suggests he may do that next year.

Its in Rogers hands

Put simply if he plays at 70 percent from here, he wins it

It would take a catastrophically bad match or a freak injury for him to lose this.

Now I have more respect for the Berd than most, I feel for him all these years making the quarters, but I cant see him matching Federers intensity close to long enough.

Cilic could... but hes not favorite, and again he'll dip more than Roger

Bad day for the tournament but great day for Fed! He was always likely to win this event but I had hoped Novak or Andy might at least be fit enough to give us at least one decent match at the end of the tournament. As it is, the last couple of days are going to be a fairly straightforward coronation. 20 slams very much on now!

It is what it is.
My 2 favs Rafa and Murray are out.
Further to that my big reason for liking tennis is those close 5 setters and classic matches, of which the prospect is now quite slim.

High quality processions have never really been my thing, i like it dirty...

So not my wimbledon this year, but then ive gotten into plenty of other sports this year so theres still plenty on

Talk of "straightforward coronations" and "high quality processions" may make for snappy soundbites ; only problem being that tennis - and of course sport in general - isn't defined by seemingly nailed-on certainties, but about what actually happens on the day.

If outcomes really were always so predictable ..... Nadal wouldn't lose to Muller ...... Federer would never lose to Stakhovsky ...... Becker wouldn't lose to Doohan ...... Sampras wouldn't lose to Bastl etc etc etc

Those winners aren't exactly stellar names. But add previous Slam winners and Finalists into the mix (Cilic... Berdych ...) and the potential for an upset becomes multiplied several times over.

In my view Federer has only been able to play the way he has been playing at this years Wimbledon, because he skipped the entire clay season. Old guys can not sustain the grind of a full tennis season.

The BBC showed Murray walking out of Wimbledon - and he was walking crooked with his bum stuck out in the air behind him - almost ape-like or monkey like. It was what I noticed when he was playing Paire - when he was walking back to his chair after each end. Depending on the prognosis this could be a career ending condition - career in terms of winning grand slam single titles and Master's titles.

No name Bertie wrote:In my view Federer has only been able to play the way he has been playing at this years Wimbledon, because he skipped the entire clay season.  Old guys can not sustain the grind of a full tennis season.

The BBC showed Murray walking out of Wimbledon - and he was walking crooked with his bum stuck out in the air behind him - almost ape-like or monkey like.  It was what I noticed when he was playing Paire - when he was walking back to his chair after each end.  Depending on the prognosis this could be a career ending condition - career in terms of winning grand slam single titles and Master's titles.

Well I hope not. Although it is deeply concerning. Hip injuries have been devastating to many a player. Nalbandian, Hewitt and kuerten spring to my mind. It depends I think if this can be managed without surgery.

A paradoxically positive sign for me is that Murray felt he could continue playing. In this day and age, I don't think he would have continued playing if he had a potentially career threatening injury

Oh dear!  I have not seen any of the action, but Federer is still here, and only a ragtag team of opponents stands between him and the trophy.  We know how that worked out last time around (not all that well - USO 2014).  Still, it is difficult not to try to see Fed lifting the trophy on Sunday.  Oh dear, stressful times ahead!

I guess what I was trying to say is this (cross-posting from another forum):


This is now Cilic's to lose.

Querrey is a good player but a couple of rungs below Cilic.

Berdych is not what he used to be, plus with him you always wonder if he quite has it what it takes to get through the final hurdle.

While Federer used to be a great grass court player, nobody expects him to win a slam less than a month shy of his 36th birthday.  Both he and his fans will be happy with a SF appearance here.

But this has always been my dream.  The other 3 members of the Big 4 slowly riding into the sunset, while Fed is duking it out with the next generation (well, it would have been nicer if it had been younger players in the SF).

SB, keeps dreaming. Rafa is not riding into the sunset! You forget La Decima for Rafa just a few weeks ago? Look for Rafa to do some damage at the NAHC season and the USO! For all you wish, it may be Fed who's riding into the sunset after this season.

As for Djoko and Murray, they'll bounce back after recovering from their injuries.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:SB, keeps dreaming. Rafa is not riding into the sunset!

I know I know, I am just enjoying today's results.  For all I know Fed will be out on Friday and Rafa will finish the year at #1.

I wonder if Cilic peaked too early. Roger seems to be getting a little better with each match. Time to call Pete Sampras and check his availability for trophy presenting.

I doubt Cilic has peaked too early. Cilic should have won in four sets the match he had with Muller; but let it slipped into the fifth set because of his nerve. He was nervous because he had being to the QF thrice prior to this but failed to progress further each time. He said as much during the after match interview.

Cilic imo still has some gear to move up to; he beating a big serving S&V'er will bode well for his confidence esp if he could beat Querrey to reach the final. Fed is playing a net rushing game so Cilic may feel more confident after beating the net rushing Muller. If it's Berdych in the final (if both get there of course) then he beating a big serving Querrey in the SF (if it happens of course) will also prepare him well to face big hitting Berdych.

I'm backing Cilic to reach the final; Cilic looked determined to do well here; he said his goal is to be in the top five this year, I think he'll play well not to let his chances slip away easily.

CaledonianCraig wrote:As for the tournament - it goes on but in the space of the last three days it has gone from being fairly open to a walkover for Roger.

Murray was playing Berdych and Raonic SF/F last year.  That is not so different from what Fed would have to go through this Wimbledon, if he were to win.

As lags alluded, maybe you are suggesting this type of opposition counts as a walkover for Fed, but not for mere mortals like Andy?

In any event, this is not done yet.  Berdych had a MP vs Fed earlier this year and Cilic, if he gets hot, could blow him away too perhaps.

Interesting analysis from everyone.

I think Cilic will get to the final easily, but I am starting to think that Federer looks favourite against him if he gets there.

I'm not sure this is borne out by his record in recent years, but I think their is an optimum level of hard match play that helps Federer in major. I think it's good for him to have to struggle and then get time to recover before he has to struggle again.

If he struggles too much and in consecutive matches he can tire out.

But sometimes if he breezes through, he can quite suddenly find himself out on his ass.

That's my way of saying I am worried he has found this all a little too easy so far and he might come unstuck in a proper battle

Without any significant injuries I predict a Federer vs Cilic final.  I don't think either Querrey or Berdych would have come through without significant injuries to Murray and Djokovic respectively.  I was impressed with the way Cilic stepped up a gear to stay with and then get on top of in-form Muller in his quarter-final.  I thought Muller was likely going to beat Cilic.

In a Federer vs Cilic final I would see Federer winning.  Cilic would win if Federer became worn down or developed a "wear & tear" type injury - we can't forget Federer is an "old man".  

I agree with the idea of bringing Sampras over if Federer gets to the final.

Of the "top four" - I now see Murray as being the "first to go" (last in - first out?).  I think he likely needs surgery for his hip injury - but it is clear Murray is not considering surgery - he is considering some patch up job.   Maybe as someone has already said - surgery itself may see an end to his career at the very very top of the sport. Murray has more or less achieved everything - winning grand slams x3, Olympic gold medals x2, Wimbledon x2, Davis Cup x1, End of Year Tournament x1, Number One Ranking, numerous Masters tournaments ... And he did this in an era containing three all time greats in Federer (Slams x18), Nadal (Slams x15, King of Clay), Djokovic (Slams x12 + the "grand slam of slams").

Does the 850 rule really apply? It seems that way, with Murray and Djoko both now > 850 match plays.

Despite all his injuries, his so called 'laborious or stressful' style of play, and his mileage, Rafa defies all odds and comes back strong time after time. He's still winning his slam and his Masters and reaching finals, not bad for a guy whom many said he's not going to last.

I won't be surprised that Rafa will play till 2020 and plays at the Tokyo Olympics then, as long as he stays motivated, plan his schedules well and avoids injury(ies). He may even outlast both Djoko and Murray.

Sorry if my term walkover offended people here but lets have a reality check. We can discount the age factor here first up - the Australian Open showed us that as Roger went through three five setters on his way to the title. Here he is yet to lose a set and is playing on his favourite surface. He is recognised as the greatest grass-courter of all-time lest we forget. Standing in his way is Tomas Berdych who nobody gave a cat in hell's chance against Novak and whose head-to-head against Fed is very one-sided in favour of Roger. And in the final awaits probably Cilic as I'd expect him to overcome Querrey. Cilic is the biggest threat to Federer left in but again has a pretty dire head-to-head V Roger and I just don't see him having the big match temperament to overcome Roger. As I said it all has an air of inevitability about it. Sure many here are trying to play down Fed's chances but dont tell me the GOAT, greatest grass courter ever and fresh as a daisy to boot is going to let this golden opportunity get away from him.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Sorry if my term walkover offended people here but lets have a reality check. We can discount the age factor here first up - the Australian Open showed us that as Roger went through three five setters on his way to the title. Here he is yet to lose a set and is playing on his favourite surface. He is recognised as the greatest grass-courter of all-time lest we forget. Standing in his way is Tomas Berdych who nobody gave a cat in hell's chance against Novak and whose head-to-head against Fed is very one-sided in favour of Roger. And in the final awaits probably Cilic as I'd expect him to overcome Querrey. Cilic is the biggest threat to Federer left in but again has a pretty dire head-to-head V Roger and I just don't see him having the big match temperament to overcome Roger. As I said it all has an air of inevitability about it. Sure many here are trying to play down Fed's chances but dont tell me the GOAT, greatest grass courter ever and fresh as a daisy to boot is going to let this golden opportunity get away from him.

I would say it is less of a walkover than Murray winning last year...Broady>Lu>Millman>Kyrgios>Tsonga>Berdych>Raonic is probably easier than (potentially) Dolgopolov>Lajovic>M Zverev>Dimitrov>Raonic>Berdych>Cilic.