US Open Round 4 - Days 7 & 8

So we reach the stage where the big names start to meet (although not so much in the bottom half of the men's draw). Some intriguing match ups throughout though.

Sunday

Querrey v M Zverev
Lorenzi v Anderson
Shapovalov v Carreno Busta
Pouille v Schwartzman

Suarez Navarro v Williams
Kvitova v Muguruza
Goerges v Stephens
Sevastova v Sharapova

Monday

Nadal v Dolgopolov
Goffin v Rublev
Federer v Kohlschreiber
Del Potro v Thiem

Pliskova v Brady
Vandeweghe v Safarova
Svitolina v Keys
Kasatkina v Kanepi

The top half matches look very interesting (with the exception of Fed-Kohli). Bottom half more like ATP 250 QFs...

Saw some clips of the last M Zverev match and the German was volleying splendidly. He'll play the same sort of game today and could cause problems.
   I'm taking Anderson to come thru. Not sure about Shap. Certainly got the talent to progress but just feel he'll lose. A hunch, really. Not based on anything.
   Pouille-Schwartzman is tough to call. If I had to put money on it, I'd back the Frenchman, but without much conviction.
   With the women, I'm going for Venus, Mug, Stephens and Sharapova. Just may be a terrific performance by Kvitova could upset the predictions.

Shap has started well. Doesn't look nervous at all. Odd they have put this on first - it's the biggest match of the day for me.

Anderson looks a no brainer to beat Lorenzi. Head to head is 3-0 and Lorenzi has very limited ways to hurt Kevin. Should be straight sets.

The other matches though are all tough. Slightly surprisingly none of them have ever faced off before, so there is no head to head guide. I'm picking:

PCB in 4 sets - its 2-2 currently but it looks to me as though Shap is going to have to work hard without getting too many easy points. I think PCB will eventually grind him down.

Pouille in 5 sets - he's probably got a bit more All-round game and power than Diego. Think he will blow hot and cold but eventually come through.

Querrey in 5 sets - Im really unsure about this one as I think Zverev's game with the leftie slice and net rushing can really trouble Stan. Also hard to ignore the fact he demolished the relatively similar Isner last round. However, Sam has been in good form this year and I just think the crowd behind him might just pull him through.

I will opt for Shapovalov in three sets. Pouille in 4 sets and Querrey in 4 sets.

Very impressive from PCB. From 3-5 down he has barely made a mistake and just broke Shap down in the tiebreak. Some stunning winners from Shap but losing that set will be a bitter blow. A long way back for the youngster.

PCB has played steady tennis. It may be too soon for Shapovalov to go further.

Shap, 5-2 up at one stage, probably needed to win that first set to have a real chance. Gonna be tough from now on.

No way can the young Canadian win this from 2 sets down - this 2nd set is vital for him.

And Carreno Busta breaks - this could be over quite quickly now.  Still, its been a great run for Shapavolov and it should help propel him up the rankings so he won't need to come through qualifiers for future tournaments.

PCB is winning this in three.
Anderson in 3
Pouille in 4
Querrey in 3

Carreno Busta wins 2nd set on tie-break, though Shapavolov manages to get a break early in 3rd set.

Great start to the third from Shap - holds after saving break points, breaks to love and then holds to love. 3-0*

Game, set and match Carreno Busta 7-6 7-6 7-6 - Shap can hold his head high, didn't disgrace himself but ultimately the consistency and match experience of Carreno Busta made the difference.  Looking at the other matches I feel Zverev could prove a real handful for Querrey - though if he negotiates that match I can see Querrey reaching the final.  Not seen Pouille this tournament, but from what I've seen of him previously he has the game to do well here - not sure if he can string it together for 7 matches though.

Shap apparently played the longest match of his short career. He led in two of the sets and by all accounts did himself proud. It was going to be asking a lot for him to carry on his form. Great experience for him.
   Sharapova, a break up and then hauled back, took first set 7-5 in her match v Sevastova but Sevastova leads 4-2 in the second.

Meanwhile, Pouille and Schwartzman head into a 1st set tie-break and Goerges is a break up in 2nd set having lost the 1st against Stephens, who is one of those players who has fallen under the radar a bit for while.

Pouille managing to lose the last 5 games to a clearly injured Schwartzman - that took some particular skills.

As expected, Anderson crushing Lorenzi. Serve looking impregnable.

Ah what a shame for Le Shapo, out in 3 tie-breakers. It's going to be fascinating to see what he does in 2018!

Querrey, what a dominant display.  I did not know he could play this well.  Zverev's game is so different from everyone else's, so I am not sure how much of the dominance is due to Querrey playing well and how much due to Zverev not being so good, but it did look impressive.

ESPN stat claimed 55 winners to 8 unforced errors for Querrey.

Zverev was feeding Querrey with balls in the strike zone. Volleys that worked with Isner, were in Query's sweet spot. The volleys lacked a challenging length or bite to cause Querrey any issues.

Whoever comes out of the top half is guaranteed a slam. Anderson also had some challenges. Schwartzman is the gutsiest of the players in the bottom half so far.

Of course I understand that Murray wanted to give himself the best possible chance of competing in this title, but I bet the organisers are crying into their coffee, tea and alcohol at all the money he may have cost them by preventing a Fedal final. A semi final is good, but I imagine a final would have been Scrooge McDuck levels of money

I got the Sharapova prediction wrong and also thought Mug would win, but with the proviso that an in-form Kvitova could go thru. Must say I like Kvitova's clean hitting and she could go on to win it from here.
   Surely the winner of the Anderson-Querrey quarter will go on to the final. Q is having quite a season.
   I see Fed has got the night match tonight. He has an excellent record in night matches, at least until he gets to the semis where one can remember him coming a cropper at some AO and USO last-four meetings. Usual crazy scheduling means Fed will probably be on late again. 
   Thiem-delpo could be interesting and it's also difficult to predict the Goffin-Rublev match. Rafa and Rog should have little trouble.

Yes, well done to Kvitova, wasn't expecting her to beat Muguruza - after what happened to her a few months ago if she went on to the win title it would be a real fairytale.

Kvitova's results since her return have been a bit up-and-down. But she's won two Wimbledons and on her day is capable of beating anyone.
   Just been watching a few clips from the Shap-CB match. Sounds like the crowd were really getting into it.

sirfredperry wrote:Kvitova's results since her return have been a bit up-and-down. But she's won two Wimbledons and on her day is capable of beating anyone.

Kvitova's results have been a bit up-and-down her entire career - for whatever reason she's never pushed on from her two Wimbledon wins in the way I thought she might.  In their different ways, and for different reasons no doubt, that seems true of a number of the leading ladies - Kerber & Azarenka have each won two slams during purple patches but failed to keep going - Muguruza is perhaps the latest to step into a similar position.  Maybe it's got more to do with Serena Williams than it has with them, but Serena cannot go on for ever and one wonders who, if anyone, will take the opportunity for a younger player to fill the stage or whether we will see a succession of players sharing out slams as they hit peaks in their careers which they cannot maintain consistently.

Yesterday looked the better day of men's matches to me. Today should see routine wins for Rafa and Fed.

I have seen nothing of either Thiem or DP this tournament but their results have both been reasonably impressive, after neither showed much form in the masters events. DP on form should beat Thiem. I'd expect Goffin to edge out Rublev.

Let's see if Dolgopolov can do any damage against Rafa. In principle he has the game for it, and he has beaten Rafa before, but I doubt he can sustain a high level throughout a BO5 match...

After Zverev's and Shapeau's losses, hopefully Rublev can be the #NextGen representative in the quarters (although I like Goffin too, and after his misfortunes at RG it would be great to see him back at his best)

I thought Querrey's performance was quite outstanding, even allowing for the fact that Zverev may have been hampered somewhat midway through the match.

Finally a chance for the home crowd to perhaps (?) see one of their own in a USO Final, after a gap of many, many years. Taking the trophy itself is of course a whole different proposition, but Querrey is now quoted as third favourite behind Fedal. A little surprising ..... I'm thinking many would rate Delpo's prospects higher.

lags72 wrote:I thought Querrey's performance was quite outstanding, even allowing for the fact that Zverev may have been hampered somewhat midway through the match.

Finally a chance for the home crowd to perhaps (?) see one of their own in a USO Final, after a gap of many, many years. Taking the trophy itself is of course a whole different proposition, but Querrey is now quoted as third favourite behind Fedal. A little surprising ..... I'm thinking many would rate Delpo's prospects higher.

Mano-a-mano I'd rate Delpo's prospects higher, but before he gets a chance to face Querrey he may face Thiem #8, Federer #3, and then Nadal #1. It's hardly surprising that Querrey's chances of getting to the final are rated higher, which inevitably results in his overall chances being rated higher.

Yep, fair comment, makes sense when you look at the bigger picture.

Promising tournament for Shapovalov, as good as could be expected probably.

Well, my comments about the scheduling and Fed being on late seem to have been completely wide of the mark. The first match has seen Pliskova win in 46 mins, dropping just one game and only 22 points.

Rafa takes first set 6-2 while Rublev has won the opening set 7-5 v Goffin.

Later: Rafa two sets up now, having broken in ninth game of second set. Goffin was a double break up in second set v Rublev but youngster has got one of the breaks back.

Barring an absolute miracle Nadal will win - now 2:0 and serving at 4:1 in the third - match looks set to be over within 2hrs, which is short for him.

Goffin has given up both breaks and is serving to stay in the 2nd set at 5:6.

Looks like a Nadal vs. Rublev QF is on the cards.....

Rafa wins easily in three, with the loss of just seven games. Rublev comes from two breaks down to take second set to go two sets to love up.

A near-perfect match by Rafa.

He does seem to be peaking at just the right time - in much the same way that Federer did at Wimbledon.

Rafa can now only be stopped at the SF stage But if he maintains this sort of level, then even for that to happen, it would most likely need an absolute A* performance from either Delpo or Fed. If Rafa gets through to the Final, then the trophy is as good as his.

Things are much more complicated for Federer. Assuming he doesn't have some weird meltdown v Kohli tonight, he then has to put on a good show to be sure of getting past Delpo or Thiem - either of whom are a real threat, especially a hot Delpo of course.

All things considered, no surprise at all that Rafa is firm favourite. A season with two Slams apiece for Fedal ....... is this some sort of time-warp.........

Rafa hasn't looked so amazing when I saw him, but I've only watched less than an hour in total of his matches.

At first glance I thought Goffin, another seed going out was a good result for Rafa. But maybe not, Goffin is a pretty player but doesn't have the outright weaponry to destroy a top class defensive player in reasonable form, so that was probably a gimme. Rublev a player who has done nothing all year, has been playing qualifying for tournaments, on the other hand an up and coming youngster, you never know when they are suddenly going to go up a level (e.g. Kyrgios vs Rafa or Raonic vs Youznhy) and surprise you.

Never ever would have predicted Rublev to win that section of the draw in a million years.

It's interesting how many of these surprise quarter finals have motored through without hardly losing any sets. You might have expected some of these players to have squeaked through after 5 setters or tight 4 setters, but just hasn't been the case. Federer's the only player left to have been taken to 5 (twice, of course).

Sets lost after 4 rounds
Nadal 2
Rublev 1
Querrey 1
Anderson 1
Carreno Busta 0
Schwartzmann 2

Sets lost after 3 rounds
Federer 4
Kohlscreiber 0
Del Potro 0
Thiem 1

Not been watching but what's wrong with DP? I didn't think he had much chance against Thiem on 2017 form but I thought he might win more than 1 of the first 10 games!

I'm watching it, Del Potro clearly uncomfortable in his movement, and commentators referring to a virus - shame, as this could have been a great match, but I feel we're just minutes from him pulling out of match.

Ok, since I've been watching Del P looks fine and it's a pretty high quality match. Just happens that he was 1-6 0-4 down at the time!

He actually looks tired to me. Like he's playing in heat or it's the 5th set instead of the second. A virus, rather than an injury, might explain this as he has struggled with fitness at times in his career I'd say but strange to be panting like that and bending over after a longish point in set 2.

Set 3 goes to DP 6-1. Some turnaround!

Thiem throws in a horror game. Break Potro.

Happened across this stat about total career prize money:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Era_tennis_records_%E2%80%93_men%27s_singles#Prize_money

I notice that, if that is accurate, Federer can overtake Djokovic and go to the top of the prize money leaderboard, but only if he wins the US open title. Even losing finalist and he may be able to overtake Djokovic by the end of the year.

I also notice that Ferrer and Stan W are on track to overtake Andre Agassi soon, which seems a little unfair, but it certainly shows how much prize money has increased over the years.

I was half watching the first set while occassionally doing stuff on my laptop and occassionally walking out of the room or even into the garden. And from watching some points here and there it seemed like some nice rallies and fairly even and then I looked up and it was 5-1. In the second set, the same thing happened. So even after Thiem won the first two sets 6-1 6-2 I am not surprised it went to the 5th. I don't think the first two sets were quite as dominant as the scoreline suggests.

The shot Del Potro hit on set point on set 4 is worth a look, cross court pass, that ball was really moving. That will certainly be in the highlights reel.

HB - Any lead Federer may take over Djokovic in the money stakes would almost certainly be temporary. With Djokovic five years younger, there's a LOT of time for him to eventually overtake Fed again - and probably by some distance.

Either way, I think they've both got to the point where prize money barely occupies their minds in the greater scheme of things. Plus of course it's only part of their earnings. Once endorsements & sponsorship are taken into account, I suspect Federer remains way ahead of anyone else on the Tour.

Amazing fifth set ........ Delpo looking favourite now methinks.

Delpo's post match endears him to many more in NY. Thiem had his chances, but failed to capitalize and deliver the last punch. Delpo.